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THE euphoria which initially greeted the emergence of the Founder of the Latter Rains Assembly and the President of the Save Nigeria Group (SNG), Pastor Tunde Bakare, as the running mate of Major-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) presidential candidate, has dissipated considerably, even within the political camp of the General. Reliable inside sources informed National Daily.

Political calculations
Before Bakare emerged as the choice joint ticket holder, the Daura-born former Head of State was having so much difficulty marketing his candidature to the Nigerian voters.
A lot of political misfortune has forced him to reappraise his political strength and weigh his chances as a presidential aspirant in future general elections in the country. His political misfortune began when he was unceremoniously hustled out of his former party, the All Nigerian Peoples Party (ANPP) which he had led unsuccessfully to the Presidential polls on two occasions, 2003 and 2007. The need to obtain a fresh political platform to pursue his ambition to lead the country once again albeit as a civilian in order to put right the perceived inability of successive administrations at the federal level to correct the worsening social and economical ills in the country forced him to float the CPC.
The candidature of the retired army general as a civilian president in past elections and political calculations has never appealed to an average southerner, be it from the South-South, South-East or South-West. Buhari is always perceived as a core Muslim whose religious orientation happens to be his political liability. The political calculation is that a Buhari candidature will always appeal to a Muslim northerner and not even to a Christian northerner.
But then, in came Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, the serving President as the Presidential candidate of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party in the upcoming April general election.
Buhari's political fortune suffered another major setback because Jonathan is not a northerner as was late President Umaru Yar'Adua or Alhaji Abubakar Atiku whom was beaten at the recent PDP Presidential Primary in Abuja. Jonathan is a Christian and from the South-South, and amassing political support by the day even from Muslim Northern leaders.
Another headache plaguing the slim built retired army general is the ever growing political clout of the former Governor of Lagos State and the leader of the Action Congress of Nigeria (ANC), Asiwaju Bola Tinubu. The breakdown of the CPC and ANC merger talks necessitated that Buhari must pick a running mate from the South-West, at least someone to challenge Tinubu's dominance in the South-West.
Buhari's prospective running mate must then be a Christian and from the South, thus the choice of Tunde Bakare.

The fiery preacher
Bakare is not only a Christian but a serving Minister of God with a thriving church. Also his political ascendance came when he became the convener of the popular SNG, the pressure group that emerged during the struggle for power during the twilight of late Yar'Adua's days as president of the country. SNG championed and hastened the emergence of Jonathan as Acting President, then as President after staging successful rallies in Lagos, Abuja and New York tagged 'Enough is Enough'. The rally attracted several Non-Governmental Organisations, Civil and Liberty Organisations and notables such as Prof Wole Soyika who threw his weight behind the group. So Bakare is a compromise candidate.
But no sooner had Bakare's nomination confirmed that opinion in the country turned against his candidature. People began to throw up the many ills of the Pastor.
It suddenly became obvious that should Buhari be seeking a Vice-Presidential material that is a Christian and form the South-West, then not Pastor Bakare.
Bakare is regarded as the most unpopular Pentecostal pastor in the South-West, his run-ins with most other church leaders with larger congregation than his definitely means that Buhari would not get the desired votes from South-West Christians. It is on record that Bakare has had one reason or the other to offend other major leading and respected ministers of God from the South-West.
The lawyer turned clergy is more or less regarded as an outcast. He has also in the past hugged the nation's many daily newspapers headlines for the wrong reasons.
He stirred the hornets' nest in 1999 when he asked the country not to rejoice over the emergence of Olusegun Obasanjo, retired General and former Military Head of State, as the President-elect.
The cleric, whose posture was termed as rebellious, peeped into the future, warning Nigerians against the calamity that would become the lot of the country under the new civilian Head of Government.
Criticisms trailed his prediction. Many described Pastor Tunde Bakare, as a prophet of doom who would not see any good thing in any government. Even, some members of the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) took a swipe at him, saying that he was restless and impatient.
After eight years, reality dawned on Nigerians that the predictions, which were dismissed with a wave of the hand, have come to fulfillment.
Bakare was among prominent Nigerians who visited Dr Jonathan shortly after he assumed office. The visit generated controversy almost six months after, over whether the money given to the delegation was spent or returned.

CPC/CAN merger talks
Aside the Bakare issue, the Buhari camp has not fully recovered from the failed CPC/ACN merger talks. Buhari has always been of the conviction that neither party can go it alone. But he was not overly impressed about the Buhari/Tinubu Ticket which is Muslim/Muslim. Tinubu on the other hand was not particularly perturbed because to him such a ticket worked for Late business mogul, Chief Moshood Abiola and Ambassador Gana Kingibe in 1993.
The CAN which called off the merger talks accused the CPC of not demonstrating “sufficient seriousness and political will to forge a workable electoral cooperation”.
In a letter dated 28th of January 2010, written by the party's National Chairman, Chief Bisi Akande, and addressed to the National Chairman of the CPC, the ACN gave other reasons for calling off the alliance to include the fact that “it (ACN) no longer considers a merger feasible.”
Akande explained in the letter that his party which preferred a merger commenced discussions with General Buhari in 2005.

“As proof of our willingness and sincerity, we even decided to adopt his party's name and logo. This was when he was in ANPP. This dream never materialized,” the party chairman stated.
The chairman of the second largest party in Nigeria also explained that it was General Buhari and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who pulled out of the National Democratic Movement, formed by opposition groups and parties at the time the ACN “pursued it with enthusiasm, dedication and great hope.”

According to the ACN, even after the collapse of the NDM, it still pursued a relationship with General Buhari and his party and that the CPC always preferred an alliance to a merger which according to Akande “has never been an attractive option and its workability is undoubtedly problematic because of the low level of literacy of the majority of our voters, among others.”
The ACN chairman also explained that his party is glad with the turnout of the talks because it's presidential candidate “Mallam Nuhu Ribadu is very much in the image of General Buhari.”
The unrelenting posture of Ribadu has also become a nightmare in the Buhari camp. The growing confidence of Ribadu is said to be giving the former No One citizen serious worries. He is a Northerner and a devout Muslim with tough anti-corruption stance. And the way Ribadu is going about seeking the proper running mate has put the senior citizen in jitters knowing full well that the agile former boss of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) will puncture all his strong political prospects.

Northern leaders root for Jonathan
The retired general is said to be not all that pleased with the sudden turn around recently demonstrated by Jonathan's main challenger at the PDP Presidential Primary, former Vice-President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and some northern leaders who have opted for dialogue with President Jonathan.
Investigation showed that apart from the olive branch from the camp of the President, the North is already looking beyond 2011, following the President's resolve not to seek re-election in 2015.
A highly placed source informed that some northern leaders had been prevailing on Atiku to leave the outcome of the PDP presidential primary election to God.
It was gathered that although these leaders appreciated the issues raised by Atiku, they said he should not go to court in order not to portray the North as desperate for power.
The source said: "The whole idea of being amenable to dialogue is to underscore the fact that the North does not believe in desperation as the President is being made to believe by some of his strategists.
"It is also meant to indicate that the North is ready for a fresh power deal, particularly as from 2015 when the South-South would have spent its four years in office.
"So, the unity of the country and the need for power shift to the North in 2015 might have informed the proposed dialogue with the President. It is a kind of new thinking to embrace Jonathan for a future power deal," the source added.
A top source in The Presidency, who spoke in confidence, said: "It is a good omen that Atiku and others are ready for dialogue. This development will be in the interest of the PDP and our 2011 campaign.
"The fact is that the President is prepared for dialogue and he has been very fair-minded during the countdown to the presidential primary election on January 13.
"At a point, there was pressure on the President to cancel the contract on additional berths in Onne Federal Ocean Terminal by Integrated Logistic Services (INTELS), a company in which Atiku has interest.
"But the President said he would not tamper with INTELS because politics should not be a do-or-die affair. He said he would not use his office against his political rivals or business concerns and he warned those who made the proposal to have a rethink. That shows you the extent to which the President is ready to accommodate all.
"And dialogue will not be a new thing to the President. Before the presidential primary, Jonathan met with Atiku informally for about three or four times, but each time, the ex-VP was not forthcoming."

Also regarded as a bad omen is the readiness of the chieftains of the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) under the chairmanship of former Minister of Finance, Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, to negotiate a list of conditions that would enable them back the aspiration of President Jonathan in the April general elections; Sources confirmed that the list of demands that is being pushed before the President include full accommodation of Atiku in the PDP structure, allocation of key ministries to the North and some ambassadorial postings.
It was gathered that some of the ministries being targeted by the northern politicians include Agriculture, the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Defence, Works, the Attorney General of the Federation and the retention of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) seat.
Key ambassadorial postings to countries like the United States, United Kingdom, China, France and Germany are also on the list.

Although the president is expected to set up the meeting, the leaders believe that they need to go there fully prepared on their position, a source has said.
It was confirmed that series of review meetings held by members of the Forum, in consultation with the four presidential aspirants, who constituted the northern consensus arrangement, yielded the conditions.

Sources said that Alhaji Ciroma hosted most of the meetings, while some of them took place outside his Abuja residence.
It was learnt that while members of the NPLF were immediately hurt by President Jonathan's victory over their preferred candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the series of meetings have deliberated on the possibilities ahead of the April polls.
Atiku Abubakar and the Northern Elders volte face is regarded as the end of an earlier mulled option said to have been toyed with which was the possibility of dragging the North to back General Buhari.

Support from all quarters
The support of former military president, General Ibrahim Babangida, was said to have also knocked the bottom off Buhari's calculations.
Sources informed that Babangida's decision to congratulate Jonathan was seen as an endorsement of the president and an indication that the former military leader had abandoned the whole North against Jonathan agenda.
It was gathered that the decision came as a rude shock to leaders of the Northern Political Leaders Forum (NPLF) and the Northern Elders Forum (NEF).
At separate meetings held after the PDP convention, sources confirmed that the pro-zoning leaders expressed surprise about Babangida's action.
A source at one of the meetings hosted by NPLF's leader, Alhaji Adamu Ciroma, said that Ciroma and others were in shock when they were told that Babangida might have jettisoned zoning to back Jonathan.

General Babangida had promptly congratulated President Goodluck Jonathan upon his victory at the PDP national convention on January 12, in a move seen by many as statesmanlike.
The readiness of Atiku and the Northern Elders coincided with the public declaration of the Ijaw National Congress (INC) and the Ohaneze Ndigbo to support President Jonathan. This was disclosed recently during a joint courtesy visit by the INC and the Ohaneze Ndigbo on the State Governor, Chief Timipre Sylva, in Government House, Yenagoa.
The move is seen as the closing of the final political door against the country's one time military Head of State who hopes to regain power as a civilian, democratically.