China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy - Politics - Nairaland
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| China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by ekubear1: 1:50am On Feb 14, 2011 |
TOKYO—Japan's economy contracted in the fourth quarter of 2010, ceding its spot as the world's second largest economy to China, as the end of auto subsidies depressed car purchases, a new tobacco tax hit cigarette sales, and the strong yen contributed to an export slump. Real gross domestic product decreased 1.1% in annualized, seasonally adjusted terms in the October-December period, slowing sharply from a revised 3.3% rise in the previous period, government data showed Monday. The result marks the first contraction since a revised 1.9% pull back in July-September 2009. It compares with the median forecast for a 2.4% contraction in a poll of economists by Dow Jones Newswires. Japan fell a notch to the world's third-largest economy as rapidly growing China surged ahead in 2010, the data also showed. Japan's nominal GDP for 2010 was 479.223 trillion yen, or $5.474 trillion, falling below the $5.879 trillion figure for China in the same year. The end of Japan's 42-year reign in that position comes as the government of Prime Minister Naoto Kan grapples with prolonged deflation, a staggering public debt and low approval ratings. In on-quarter terms, real GDP contracted 0.3%, compared with revised 0.8% expansion in the July-September period. Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 60% of Japan's GDP, was down 0.7% on quarter, compared with a revised 0.9% rise in the previous quarter. Domestic demand contributed 0.2 percentage point to the rate of GDP contraction. External demand, or exports minus imports, contributed 0.1 percentage point to the rate of contraction. The picture was brighter for the full calendar year. Real GDP for all of 2010 expanded 3.9%, the government said. Economists say that the economy will likely bounce back in the first quarter of 2011, in part as export growth picks up. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by SEFAGO(m): 1:52am On Feb 14, 2011 |
Hedging my bets on China, India is so out of the game, these guys are definitely moving up to first world status. Although their citizens have a low opinion of teh country though especially of the inequalities in the nation. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by ekubear1: 1:52am On Feb 14, 2011 |
I found this plot interesting:  |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by ekubear1: 1:55am On Feb 14, 2011 |
I don't think they'll be moving to first world status. GDP/capita is still pretty low. Under 4k, iirc? Remember the huge population of China relative to Japan. India isn't much better than Nigeria on a GDP/capita basis, if at all. Still, they've also come far over the years. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by EzeUche2(m): 2:02am On Feb 14, 2011 |
People cannot forget about Brazil either. Their economy is growing tremendously as well as their population. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by jason123: 2:03am On Feb 14, 2011 |
eku_bear: Dapo, this is very interesting . . . . . eku_bear: I did not study economic but judging from the graph; it shows Chain is growing exponentially while Japan peaked in 1990 and since then maintained an average +- peak. Japan is probably JUST below the USA economically. This shows that Chain would over take USA and move to the first world statue after some time |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by SEFAGO(m): 2:07am On Feb 14, 2011 |
I don't think they'll be moving to first world status. GDP/capita is still pretty low. Under 4k, iirc? Remember the huge population of China relative to Japan. yeah, I know- most people from the US or Europe who go to China keep complaining of the massive poverty in China and dispel the fact that they might overtake a lot of leading countries very soon. Yes they might not bhe able to compete currently on a per capita basis but the fact that they control so much money would make them very important in world affairs that might even accelerate their growth. They now have economic bargaining power, the only country the US is scared of is China ( I know this because only one country seems to give policy makers restless nights). See you dont need to have a high GDP per capita (especially for a large country like China) to be moving towards first world status. The chinese middle class is growing consistently, and they do have huge potential. They will move to first world status- Not now of course but 30-40 years at least which is not that bad. They might likely even overtake the US before then. The US might lose its competitive edge in Technology if most of the Chinese researchers decide to go back home due to a better economic climate and increased opportunities. People cannot forget about Brazil either. Their economy is growing tremendously as well as their population. Just say you like brazilian women. In reality their economy might be growing but its not going to be a superpower. China on the otherhand . . . |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by EzeUche2(m): 2:14am On Feb 14, 2011 |
Just because China has overtaken Japan as the World's No. 2 economy does not mean anything to the Japanese. The Japanese should be more worried about their "graying population." And also, they should encourage couples to have more children to increase their birth rate. However, technologically, the Japanese are far advanced to most nations in the world. People should not think that Japan is on the decline. If they get rid of their pacifist Constitution, they would be able to create a military that even China would fear in a matter of months, not years. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by olaolabiy: 2:17am On Feb 14, 2011 |
Long time ago, Eku. 2 months, at least. Standard of living is still better in Japan though. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by violent(m): 2:18am On Feb 14, 2011 |
I have an opinion that China is just another Bubble, when it bursts, it's going to drag the world down with it. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by jason123: 2:20am On Feb 14, 2011 |
EzeUche_: Well, the senior citizens are not going anywhere soon, infact, they would be replaced with a higher population when they die. They also have a low mortality rate of senoir citizens in Japan. These factors coupled with the fact that they have peaked and their growth has pretty much plateaued. It can be said that they cannot catch up with Chain except other factors come to play i.e may be a civil war in Chain etc. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by SEFAGO(m): 2:21am On Feb 14, 2011 |
I differ, there income is not from heavy borrowing . . . I think what they figured out how to do was penetrate markets with cheap goods lol people like cheap things |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by jason123: 2:22am On Feb 14, 2011 |
violent: Why? Remember that the USA still owes them money coupled with their population. I do not think that would happen anytime soon |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by ekubear1: 2:23am On Feb 14, 2011 |
violent: You aren't the only guy who thinks this way: http://video.ft.com/v/772837551001/Why-Jim-Chanos-is-short-China |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by olaolabiy: 2:29am On Feb 14, 2011 |
jason123: This explains nothing. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by violent(m): 2:31am On Feb 14, 2011 |
eku_bear: very educative!!!! |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by jason123: 2:40am On Feb 14, 2011 |
eku_bear: Thanks Dapo ola olabiy: As I said earlier, I really do not know much about it. I was just trying to use a bit of intuition to answer some of the questions but I have seen the video and it explains a lot. The question is, why can't they convert all the money USA is owing them into assets? This can help make light the burst. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by EzeUche2(m): 2:43am On Feb 14, 2011 |
jason123: That is why they either need to increase their birth rate, by providing benefits to couples or they should have a more open immigration policy. I hear from Asians, that the Japanese are very xenophobic and dislike Koreans and the Chinese. Remember that the Japanese controlled most of Asia during WW II. But people need to stop overestimating the Chinese. Even though millions of Chinese citizens have joined the Middle Class, they still have a largely rural and impoverished citizens who make up the bulk of their citizens. Japan does not have to worry about that if you look at their per capita. In addition, as I said before, the Japanese are one of the most technologically advanced societies in the world. Even the West can only look with envy at Tokyo. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by SEFAGO(m): 2:45am On Feb 14, 2011 |
The question is, why can't they convert all the money USA is owing them into assets? This can help make light the burst LOL, thats very simplistic. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by jason123: 2:48am On Feb 14, 2011 |
SEFAGO: jason123: Since intuition fails, can you explain? |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by olaolabiy: 2:51am On Feb 14, 2011 |
jason123: Already an asset, Jason. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by ekubear1: 2:54am On Feb 14, 2011 |
I don't understand why the Japanese are so xenophobic. Why don't they just poach talented Asians and "japanify" them? Cultural purity is important, but avoiding decline is even moreso. If I were them, I'd be stealing all these talented Chinese who end up just benefiting the US. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by violent(m): 2:55am On Feb 14, 2011 |
Besides the property markets, The Chinese government controlled banking sector is a sort of riddle wrapped in a puzzle inside an enigma. No one can begin to fathom the amount of non-performing loans on the books. Unlike the US which went through a gut wrenching cleansing - thanks to the largess of the lobby-less taxpayer, the financial sector is once again back in fighting shape (privatized profits, public losses). China is yet to address their toxic assets |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by EzeUche2(m): 3:00am On Feb 14, 2011 |
eku_bear: You have to understand Japanese society. After the Sino-Ruso war, the Japanese had this belief that they were one of the only non-Europeans to defeat another European in battle, that they were destined for greatness. The way Japan was able to modernize during the Meiji Period should not be understated. After the Americans opened up the closed country, the Japanese warrior caste (Samurai) were alarmed that a foreign power could do this. They were still stuck in the mindset that they were invincible after defeating the Mongolian empires under Kublai Khan. After the traumatic effect of having American guns pointed at them, the Japanese decided they needed to rapidly modernize in order to compete on the world state. They did this in ONE generation. Amazing! Japan's conquest of most of Asia, and being respected by Europeans for their martial prowess, made the Japanese think they are in a league of their own. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by ekubear1: 3:04am On Feb 14, 2011 |
EzeUche_: Hrm. Still, to me it makes sense to grab as much talent as you can. Even if you look down on other Asians, surely you'd want to let in certain talented individuals joined your group. At least, this is the way I think about things. A superiority complex can be harmful if it causes you to believe that another group doesn't have anything at all to offer. Every group on earth has talent. Anyway, they are now faced with a situation in which they'll slowly dwindle over the net 50 years, while China probably surges past them. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by bkbabe97y(m): 4:03am On Feb 14, 2011 |
EzeUche_: Dude, wtf do you always try to sound intelligent and end up sounding like a bloody monkey?!? Re-Read what you wrote, DOES IT MAKE SENSE? How does it align with what is being discussed uptop?! |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by EzeUche2(m): 4:30am On Feb 14, 2011 |
bk.babe97y: My post actually has substance. Japan has less to fear about being overtaken by China in terms of economy. Their "greying population" is what they should be worried about. They should focus on trying to increase their population, by providing subsidies to young couples. That is another fact. And they should get rid of that pacifist constitution that was created by the Americans. Do not talk about things you do not know. That is something you wouldn't know, and Wikipedia can't help you. No need for me to sound intelligent, I have always been intelligent. Why do you think I got a full ride and my nationally recognized university. I am not some like you. And when I say full ride, I mean my tuition and my room & boarding is being taken care of. |
| Re: China Overtakes Japan As World's No. 2 Economy by EzeUche2(m): 4:37am On Feb 14, 2011 |
eku_bear: The Japanese do not think like that. They already feel that they have enough talent. And actually, they do have a highly educated population. Japanese children are pressured to be at the top of their classes, which makes the competition even more fierce when they get to the university level. Yes, a superiority complex can be harmful, but look at what they were able to achieve 30 short years. They went from a feudalistic society that was being bullied by the Americans, to a modernized society that was able to defeat the Russian navy and gain control of Manchuria and other Russian provinces. |
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