After the most recent ruling in their case against Nigeria, I suspect that for the backers of P&ID, Kenny Rogers’ iconic song “ the Gambler” will never sound the same again.

P&ID took Nigeria to arbitration alleging that Nigeria had repudiated a contract to build a wet-gas plant in Cross River state. In 2017 they won $6.6-billion at the arbitration, which over the years with the accrued interest, totals $10-billion as of date. During the arbitration and subsequent appeal process Nigeria had dabbled with the option of a settlement, and varying sums were allegedly offered to P&ID at different times, but these offers were never accepted; decisions P&ID may by now regret given the judge’s conclusions in the latest ruling.

Every court case bears some risk; “open and shut case” is a common enough expression, but in reality very few cases are purely open and shut because there usually is a loophole. Even if unseen at the start of litigation, it can emerge in the course of it. The probability of a loophole unravelling a case may seem low, but its viability should be kept in mind. And so at a certain point in a court battle the perceived strength of a case can (and should) rise and fall based on an informed assessment of viable loopholes that could determine the outcome of the case. You don’t want to be too cocky, or underrate your opponent. It appears P&ID severely underrated Nigeria.

The stakes were high, and P&ID knew early on what the greatest loopholes were: they had made or authorized questionable payments to Nigerian government officials around the time they procured the contract. How this fact did not motivate them enough to accept a quick settlement will no doubt be the subject of articles, books, and maybe a documentary or two in time to come.

The said judgment of Sir Cranston of the English High Court has likely ended all hope of any settlement. Dismissing P&ID’s vigorous though “inconsistent” arguments against an opportunity for Nigeria to prove fraud, the judge agreed that Nigeria’s submissions before him revealed that P&ID lacked real capacity to execute the contract in the first place, that they misled the arbitration tribunal by perjury, and that they breached several anti-corruption statutes by various payments and gifts to Nigerian officials. There were also no factors weighty enough to stop a late challenge to the enforcement of the award in the face of the foregoing. This ruling sets the stage for Nigeria to approach the court again to argue that for these same reasons, the award should not be enforced. So the fireworks are not over yet, but we can already see the finish line: P&ID’s goose is nearly cooked.

And why not? It is quite brazen; the idea of a handful of adventurers draining an impoverished third world country of $10-billion for repudiating a deal that gave zero value to the country. Looking beyond the PR schmooze and carefully crafted arguments of legitimacy, the court now says that on closer inspection this deal appears to have been a scam, a grand heist of global proportions. This case is a hodgepodge of ironic contradictions. If you’ve seen Steven Spielberg’s War of the Worlds, then picture P&ID as the invading alien, Nigeria the beleaguered planet, and bribery and corruption as the antihero, that hapless planet’s silent but deadly microbial defense that destroyed the invader from within. Who would have thought?

It has been reported that earlier this Irish-owned company was offered as much as $250-million dollars cash, or alternatively a combined deal of $100-million plus $500-million in cash and concessions to settle out of court. They allegedly refused these offers. It must have seemed like a short-change to accept less than a billion to forgo a judgement award of $10-billion. Yes, but remember the loopholes.

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