The economic impact of coronavirus is a “tinderbox” that will drive civil unrest and instability in developing countries in the second half of 2020, according to new analysis.

Highest risk countries facing a “perfect storm”, where protests driven by the pandemic’s economic fallout are likely to inflame existing grievances, include Nigeria, Iran, Bangladesh, Algeria and Ethiopia, the analysis said.

Thirty-seven countries, mainly in Africa and Latin America, could face unparalleled street protests for up to three years, global risk firm Verisk Maplecroft warned.

Miha Hribernik, Verisk Maplecroft’s principal analyst said the total number of protests in developing countries has almost rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, as long-standing grievances over socioeconomic inequalities, civil and political rights, and government corruption have resurfaced.

“With many countries still in lockdown, and the full economic shock of the outbreak yet to be felt, we expect the number of protests to surge over the next 2–3 months,” said Hribernik.

In 2019, Verisk Maplecroft recorded 47 countries with a significant uptick in protests, including Hong Kong, Chile, Nigeria, Sudan and Haiti. It predicted more turmoil in 2020.

“It was very much a global phenomenon last year” said Hribernik. “Each protest was unique, primality driven by anger over inequality, corruption, erosion of trust of political elites. These are not issues that can be resolved overnight. They are structural issues that take years or decades to address.”

In sub-Saharan Africa, Verisk Maplecroft expects the risk of protests to intensify amid economic decline, poverty, and inability to guarantee adequate food supplies. In Latin America, Venezuela is ranked as being at greatest risk of unrest