RELEASED INEC VOTERS REGISTER BY REGIONS

NW        19,803,689

SW        14,296,163

NE         10,749,059

NC         10,684,037

SS           9,474,427

SE           7,577, 214

Total      73,528,040
                                                    These projections have taken in to account the following:

(a)The popularity of the candidates in each of the 6 regions and the voters strength in each state  from the INEC released voters register.

(b)  The candidates party structure across the regions

(c) ethnic / religious sentiments of the electorates in voting pattern 

(d) Incumbency factor.
                             




                                                  GEJ                                      BUHARI                                    RIBADU


NW                                  5.94 Million  (30%)                          11.28Million    (57%)                2.57Million  (13%)



NE                                   3.33 Million   (31%)                           5.48 Million  (51%)                 1.94 Million (18%)


NC                                  4.27 Million    (40%)                         3.97 Million   (37%)                  2.45 Million (23%) .                                   
                                           

S.W                                  4.43 Million   (31%)                          4.14 Million  (29%)                  5.71 Million (40%)


S.S                                   7.56 Million    (80%)                         0.87 Million    (9%)                 1.04 Million (11%)


S.E                                    5.22 Million  (69%)                          0.91 Million    (12%)             1.44 Million  (19%)


TOTAL VOTES                    30.76 Million ( 42%)                  26.65 Million ( 36.2%)             15.15 Million ( 21%)




The limitations of the projections which could cause appreciable changes  are:

(a) Massive rigging

(b) Voter Apathy in some regions

(c) Performances of Presidential / vice presidential candidates in the expected  televised debates

(d)  Geometric Increase in the campaign / evangelism of the candidates as we count down to the d day.

(e) The other presidential candidates votes apart from the top three , which is projected to be at most 5% of the total votes, but will not be considered.



VARYING OPINIONS ARE WELCOMED .



ABIA                1,524,484

ADAMAWA       1,816,094

A/ IBOM           1,616,873

ANAMBRA        2,011,746

BAUCHI            2,523,614

BAYELSA            591,870

BENUE             2,390,884

BORNO            2,380,957

C/RIVER          1,148,486

DELTA             2,032,191

EBONYI           1,050,534

EDO                1,655,776

EKITI                764,726

ENUGU           1,303,155

FCT                 943,473

GOMBE           1,318,377

IMO                1,687,293

JIGAWA           2,013,974

KADUNA        3,905,387

KANO               5,027,297

KATSINA          3,126,898

KEBBI              1,638,308

KOGI                 1,316,849

KWARA               1,152,361

LAGOS               6,108,069

NASSARAWA        1,389,308

NIGER                   2,175,421

OGUN                   1,941,170

ONDO                   1,616,091

OSUN                    1,293,967

OYO                     2,572,140

PLATEAU              2,259,194

RIVERS                 2,429,231

SOKOTO                2,267,509

TARABA                 1,336,221

YOBE                    1,373,796

ZAMFARA              1,824,316

TOTAL                  73,528,040[b][/b]

the pdp machinery maybe testing the waters.Thisday did something close to this before the 2007 elections,now wikileak has made it are that the whole election result cant stand scrutiny.If you are by giving a paltry 5.7million to ribadu in SW,you are indirectly saying pdp will win ogun,oyo,osun,ekiti,ondo and Lagos You guys better dont try anything funny with this election.Olomo kilo fun omo re,April election wont be 2007 election.Vote Ribadu-Fola Adeola for president and VP.God bless my country Nigeria

@ OP

Ribadu will not get up to 40% in the SW
Buhari will get more than 57% in the NW

@TNUBU4LIFE.

The total registered voters in the south west is 14.3 million.  And the projection for the PDP's candidates stands at 4.43 million ( 31%) votes, which is less than a 5.7 million (40%) votes for the ACN candidate,   this percentage does not indicate a total victory for the PDP's candidate across the south west states. at the moment PDP still controls 2 of the 6 southwest states.

with Lagos an ACN stronghold accounting for about 40% of SW west yielding about its 65% (going by last presidential elcetion) of its vote for ribadu,that is already more than 20% of SW in ACN kitty,now to othrt SW states giving an average of 31% of the remaining 60%(coming from 75% ekiti,osun,60% oyo,50% ondo and ogun) taking the haul to 51% conservatively,then that is already about 7million.I think you should review the gej downwards cos Buhari is not the main casualty in SW,its gej!The SW resents pdp not cpc.Ribadu will do better than 11% in the SS except massive rigging is allowed!pdp is facing serious problem in the north,the pdp governors are facing serious opposition in their bases and how well gej handles the unsettled issue on zoning could help just a bit,perhaps to save the governors!pdp may also be the major casualty!.This election will humble pdp even if they eventually win.ACN is making serious inroads into the places hitherto held by the pdp.Imagine the kind of reception given to ribadu in Akwa-Ibom even when all along the impression is that Akpabio is fully in charge!The ACN is digging deep into the schism that exists in these states.In Rivers,it is people in the mainland vs people in the hinterland who have been denied for long.In ibom,its the Uyo people/Victor Attah vs Akpabio etc.As for SW,its en bloc voting all the way,ribadu may get up to 70% if pdp fortunes continue to dwindle like in ogun state!

@TNUBU4LIFE,

Ur analysis seems ok, but i think fails to take cognisance of the fact that GEJ is a southerner, and the "charisma" in his name "goodluck" and his mode of ascension to the throne will bring about voting sentiments most especially from the ageing population (50's and above) and some women electorates in the south west, Unfortunately Buhari does not have a very formidable political platform needed in grassroot politics, he is relying more on his good will and political antecedents, which works well for the enlightened electorates. Ribadu will probably have had more than the 51 % of the votes you anticipated, but if you observe clearly a trend, many supposedly voters for Ribadu are switching to the Buhari's camp. It could get worse as the day goes by.

What about independent voters like me?the polls didn't mention who they favoring, maybe we need Gallup polls!

thanks,i love ur robust thinking and I must confess,you impress me.God,I love brilliant minds like you.Now,I dont think buhari is more for the enlightened one.You know the nigerian elites wont like a no-nonsense person like buhari,just like ribadu.Also,buhari does not have the kind of money to oil elitist campaign.His greatest assets also include his wide acceptance by the northnern talakawas(masses),even most hausa okadas in Lagos ve buhari posters on their okadas!Now about 'goodluck',you see,when the real voting starts,the voters in the SW would ve been tutored to thumbprint ACN(broom) on both ballot papers!They give you the 2 ballotpapers at the sametime,most of the voters will feel justified in their reluctance to split the votes!they will just explain it away that 'I dont have the time to be checking which is governor or president besides,I WANT ACN!' sealing gej's chances in the SW.GEJ's name ,i agreed could sell better than pdp in SW,but pdp has serious notoriety image in the SW(see the magnitude of celebration that greeted SW on those two accounts of losing the stolen mandates in ekiti and osun,those removed govs. were humiliated when leaving gov. houses) not as much as gej but ACN has blocked gej effectively in the west.He should attend the debate to reach more undecided voters,he should resist actions that can be misinterpreted as political persecution,he should speak more but with tact against the failure of past pdp governments to reach more on the left(which is the political leaning of most SW voters),he should speak more against corruption like the case of haliburton etc so reduce his perception as an pro-establishment person,he should court the major opposition more,imagine him visiting the political headquarters of the ACN to personally convey govt's sympathy over the near-air mishap involving the ACN stalwarts.I know he wont do these things,so down goes his goodwill.If GEJ has goodluck,why is it that his major opposition is from the two zones with the highest number of votes!I dont consider that 'goodluck' oh!

vote ribadu-Fola Adeola for president and VP

Your analysis is simply skewed to favour your own candidate GEJ. How can you explain GEJ taking 31% of SW votes when according to you PDP controls only 2 states there and the registered voters from both states is not even up to 30% of the total figure for the SW states.

The shocker was even the figure you gave to GEJ in the Northwest, where he'll certainly not get anything above 10% of the votes in that region. You analysis is no where near the realities on ground. Go back to your sponsors and tell them you were unable to sell this gullible idea.

@9ijaman,
Am really disapointed in you, in the way you have jumped to conclusion ,

God willing, i should be voting on the election day for one of the top 3, pres. candidates, but my votes will be niether for GEJ nor Ribadu, u get my drift.\

I think what you should realise in making objective projections is that you have to detached any iota of sentiments with your political affiliations.

In any election worldwide the strength of a party structure gives his/her candidate a head start, no matter how unpopular the candidate might be.

These are the posers i will raise:

How many states do we have in the NW? 6

How many are currently governed by PDP ? 5 (Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina)

Given Jonathan a less than 10 % in the NW is at best extreme and not objective

Does the other parties have the kind of money PDP can spend in political maneouvering / door 2 door campaign ? No


Let your analysis be objective and trully face the realities on ground

Crux of the matter

No matter how weak / "clueless" a candidate might be, with a strong political structure, he will still spring a fairly ok result. The 30% is way objective and in touch with the reality on ground.

I have not denied the strength of Buhari in the NW, and the 57% projection is also clearly objective

emiye:

@9ijaman,
Am really disapointed in you, in the way you have jumped to conclusion ,

God willing, i should be voting on the election day for one of the top 3, pres. candidates, but my votes will be niether for GEJ nor Ribadu, u get my drift.\

I think what you should realise in making objective projections is that you have to detached any iota of sentiments with your political affiliations.

In any election worldwide the strength of a party structure gives his/her candidate a head start, no matter how unpopular the candidate might be.

These are the posers i will raise:

How many states do we have in the NW? 6

How many are currently governed by PDP ? 5 (Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina)

Given Jonathan a less than 10 % in the NW is at best extreme and not objective

Does the other parties have the kind of money PDP can spend in political maneouvering / door 2 door campaign ? No


Let your analysis be objective and trully face the realities on ground

Crux of the matter

No matter how weak / "clueless" a candidate might be, with a strong political structure, he will still spring a fairly ok result. The 30% is way objective and in touch with the reality on ground.

I have not denied the strength of Buhari in the NW, and the 57% projection is also clearly objective

While you may have made some valid points. I still feel you are giving too much weight to the incumbency factor. We all know that it does not work well in the north. Besides Buhari's influence and popularity will often erode the incumbency advantage. He did it in 2003 in Kano when he single handedly made Shekarau to bit the popular Kwankwaso. The feelers from Kano today is that Kwankwaso (though still with the PDP) may return to office for three basic reasons:
1. He has not been campaigning openly for GEJ. He's focused mainly on his ambition of returning back to the Kano State government house.
2. Buhari may not want to endorse Mohammed Abacha
3. Shekarau does not posses the sort of clout Buhari has in Kano.

The same thing also happened in Bauchi state when Yuguda ran under the ANPP platform in 2007 riding on Buhari's back to win the elections. Although the eediot later defected back to PDP.

Buhari is certainly now wiser. He knows he'll need to win a lot more states for CPC in order to realize his ambition of getting into Aso rock. If you watch his campaigns, he's been endorsing candidates in those states where the incumbent governors have been very hostile to his campaign team.

Sentiments apart, GEJ will not capture 10% of the NW votes if PDP does not rig the elections. The abysmal campaign of GEJ in the NE is again showing that GEJ will likely fail woefully there too.
Buhari did not enjoy this much of follower-ship in his 2 previous attempts. If you recall, he was just about the first candidate to declare interest in the presidency in the 2011 election.

@9ijaman,

Well, April 9 will tell!

Nice post little skewed i totally expect ACN to dominate the SW, having said that i think ribadu missed a trick in not choosing an igbo or SS VP. He did not need a yoruba to sure up the SW he has Tinubu and Fashola for that. If he had chosen a SS VP that would have incresed his stock in both the SS and SE. AS for GEJ I see him cleaning up in the SS & SE but thats about it. Buhari will take the NW and conservative muslims will vote foe him.
There are two things i wish for, 1 that there be no rigging and 2 that pdp lose no matter what!!!!!!!!!1
UP RIBADU

@ 9ijaman, must a candidate score at least 51% of the total votes cast to be decleared winner?

Jbenue:

Nice post little skewed i totally expect ACN to dominate the SW, having said that i think ribadu missed a trick in not choosing an igbo or SS VP. He did not need a yoruba to sure up the SW he has Tinubu and Fashola for that. If he had chosen a SS VP that would have incresed his stock in both the SS and SE. AS for GEJ I see him cleaning up in the SS & SE but thats about it. Buhari will take the NW and conservative muslims will vote foe him.
There are two things i wish for, 1 that there be no rigging and 2 that pdp lose no matter what!!!!!!!!!1
UP RIBADU

U have pointed out a major weakness in the Ribadu ticket , others are :

Muslim  / muslim ticket (

ACN  does not have the  needed political clout in the North West and North east.


A chunk of  buhari's projected voters  in the south west used to be  Pro Ribadu, they had switch camp due to the  doubts in its readiness  for the 2011 election.  . i foresee more Pro Ribadu moving to the Buhari's camp in the south west.  I also foresee a run off in the presidential election

overhyped:

@ 9ijaman, must a candidate score at least 51% of the total votes cast to be decleared winner?

The nigerian constitution stipulates a simple majority i.e it could be 30% or 40 % , but with a condition that the candidate must win at least 25% of the total votes in at least 24 states and F.C.T.

What this means is that, if a candidate wins 60 % of the total votes cast, but does not meet the second condition, a run off election will be declared with the second best candidate