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Prices have shown a slight increase in the international and domestic markets for LPG in the immediately preceding week #

Key Development in Nigeria's LPG Market
• International(Mont Belvieu) prices of LPG experienced fluctuations but ended on a lower note compared to the opening prize for the week . The week's average prices are below those of the previous week.
• Prices of LPG at the depot level rose slightly compared to the previous week. The price difference between the Mont Belvieu and depot prices are slightly widened in response to a drop in prices in the international market.
• Compared to the previous week, the difference between depot prices per kg of LPG and retail prices in Nigeria has not changed significantly.
• Regional disparities continue to persist in the retail prices of LPG within the country.

Regional Disparity in Retail
Regional disparity in the prices of LPG across the country has been a regular feature of the Nigerian LPG market. Though the South-south geopolitical zone hosts the great majority of depots in the country due to its proximity to the ocean, prices have been highest in the region.

Macroeconomics Condition and the LPG Market
• The exchange rate of the naira to the US. dollars has remained at N380 to US.$1 official pegged rate while (Figure D), disparities continue to widen in the parallel market.
• Nigeria's foreign reserve is continuing to experience a decline as in the previous week. The continuous decline, howbeit, slightly in magnitude, has been the trend for over a month.
• For the gas market, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of the CBN reports that only New Orders grew in October for the Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply Index category while Business Activities and employment & inventory contracted in the same month. The declining trend in Business Activities and employment & inventory signal contraction in demand in the respective value chains.
• The persistent rise in inflation in the past more than 11 months is already reflecting in the price of gas for the last mile user. The persistent rise in inflation in the past (in September 13.7%, August 13.2%, July 12.8%, June at 12.6% from the 12.4% recorded in May 2020) has implications for the price of LPG across the country. More importantly, the composite food index of 16.16% in September still persist in October 2020.
• Prices of crude oil in the international market rose and later declined towards the end of the week under review. (Figure E).

Outlook: Coming Weeks
We expect LPG prices to continue to fluctuate as domestic prices adjust to reflect the sudden changes in international prices in the week under review.


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