International election observers have been enthusiastic about Nigeria’s 2011 presidential elections, seeing them as a dramatic improvement over those of 2007, admittedly a low bar. Electorally, the country split in two, with the North, predominately Muslim, voting for Muhammadu Buhari and the South for the winner, incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan. (In addition, there were numerous other candidates who altogether won only a small percentage of the vote). Buhari and other Northern spokesmen have denounced the elections as having been rigged and have called for them to be annulled. Meanwhile, murderous rioting has broken out across the northern part of the country, a sign of the major breakdown in civic order. What happened?

There appears to have been substantial election rigging, [b]not so much at the polling stations where international observers were often present but at the collation centers where monitors were usually absen[/b]t. A distinguished Nigerian civil organization, The Civil Society Election Situation Room, notes that in twelve states – one third of the total – ostensible voter turnout was suspiciously high. The national voter turnout average was 53 percent. In the twelve identified states, the turnout ranged from 62 percent to 84 percent. The Situation Room cites allegations that the figures were “doctored” and declares that the collation process constituted “the weakest link in the election management process.” Project Swift Count, another civil organization involved with election oversight, did station observers at some collation sites, but apparently a number of its personnel were arrested or otherwise intimidated. The Situation Room faults the Electoral Commission for having been “ineffective in its oversight function as far as monitoring and controlling the collation process was concerned.”

In Nigeria, governors often play a prominent role in election rigging. Of the twelve states with dubious turnout figures cited by the Election Situation Room, eleven had governors from the ruling party who supported Jonathan; none had governors from the opposition who supported Buhari. Of the twelve states that Buhari won, all in the North, Jonathan accumulated more than twenty-five percent of the vote in eight of them. Of those eight, all are represented by governors of the ruling party, the PDP.

Most of the rigging appears to have benefited Jonathan, and the Electoral Commission has certified that he won twice as many votes as Buhari and easily a majority of the ballots cast. Why rig in states that Jonathan was almost certain to win anyway? The Nigerian constitution requires a successful presidential candidate to win an absolute majority of the votes cast and at least 25 percent of the vote in two thirds of the states. Otherwise, there is a runoff between the two candidates who had the most votes. So, Jonathan needed overwhelming majorities in his base states to ensure that he won an absolute majority of the ballots cast nationwide. And, to avoid a runoff, he also needed sufficient support in the North to meet the vote distribution requirement.

So, even if the polling was credible, the ballot counting was not. With the country split in half on regional and religious lines, and with many of the losers convinced the elections were stolen, the result has enraged the North against the ruling party, (including northern elites who are associated with the ruling party such as the Sultan of Sokoto and the Emir of Kano) and also against Christians in many places. The issue is not whether Jonathan would have won the elections “anyway,” it is rather the sentiment among Northerners that the PDP yet again stole the elections. The immediate concern is that Northern violence against the ruling party and its perceived Christian supporters will result in an anti-Muslim backlash in the states that supported Jonathan. The longer term concern is the alienation of the North from the Federal Republic, a process already underway

I know we have lost this elections and I personally concede defeat. However we have to learn from the mistakes to better our future, the myth spreading around of a free and fair election should please stop. Otherwise we might forever have rigged elections in Nigeria.

^^^

Where is the link to the original article?

Who is Campbell to Nigeria?

u are stupid beyond imagination

Hehe

John Campbell's momma also did not raise a fool

Link to his article is here: http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2011/04/19/nigerian-presidential-elections-the-devil-is-in-the-ballot-collating/

Spreadsheet of election results I calculated on Google docs here: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-648868.64.html#msg8151346

Similar table calculated by El Rufai here: http://saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/uploads/ElRufaiTable.jpg

ekt_bear:

Hehe

John Campbell's momma also did not raise a fool

Link to his article is here: http://blogs.cfr.org/campbell/2011/04/19/nigerian-presidential-elections-the-devil-is-in-the-ballot-collating/

Spreadsheet of election results I calculated on Google docs here: https://www.nairaland.com/nigeria/topic-648868.64.html#msg8151346

Similar table calculated by El Rufai here: http://saharareporters.com/sites/default/files/uploads/ElRufaiTable.jpg

Thanks for the link it is also on NVS.

People just like to read what they want to hear. The election process was better than 2007 and JEGA gave us a good process. However, the election was rigged in the SE, SS and north which means it is not free and fair.

Lagosboy:

Thanks for the link it is also on NVS.

People just like to read what they want to hear. The election process was better than 2007 and JEGA gave us a good process. However, the election was rigged in the SE, SS and north which means it is not free and fair.

This, I don't understand. How do we know it was better than 2007? We don't know what happened. GEJ probably won, but we cannot say for sure. How is that a good election, when you cannot say definitively who won

We may find out after investigations and forensics are done that it was a good election. But as for now, we simply have no fricking clue.

I had a long discussion this evening with my girlfriend over dinner about this. She didn't get it at first. .  until I explained it to her using the analogy of the Gore vs. Bush elections in 2000. Yet rather than questionable voting in a few counties within the state of Florida, MASSIVE rigging in fully 1/3rd of the states in the nation. When I told her that, she was flabbergasted.

If I urinate in your borehole water supply, will you want to drink that water? Small amounts of contamination can corrupt the process utterly. Yet Nigerians seem willing to drink water from this filthy supply.

ekt_bear:

This, I don't understand. How do we know it was better than 2007? We don't know what happened. GEJ probably won, but we cannot say for sure. How is that a good election, when you cannot say definitively who won

We may find out after investigations and forensics are done that it was a good election. But as for now, we simply have no fricking clue.

I had a long discussion this evening with my girlfriend over dinner about this. She didn't get it at first. . until I explained it to her using the analogy of the Gore vs. Bush elections in 2000. Yet rather than questionable voting in a few counties within the state of Florida, MASSIVE rigging in fully 1/3rd of the states in the nation. When I told her that, she was flabbergasted.

If I urinate in your borehole water supply, will you want to drink that water? Small amounts of contamination can corrupt the process utterly. Yet Nigerians seem willing to drink water from this filthy supply.

Big sigh . . . you are right .

We have been brainwashed to be contented with mediocrity

For someone who published a book  titled "Nigeria: Dancing on the brink" in November of 2010, I would take anything he says with a pinch of salt. How else will you justify your book and improve sales if not to perpetuate the "Dancing on the brink" theory.

^-- heh, fair point. Still, worth listening to his words. . . not eating them up blindly, but using it along with other info sources.

oncolor:

For someone who published a book  titled "Nigeria: Dancing on the brink" in November of 2010, I would take anything he says with a pinch of salt. How else will you justify your book and improve sales if not to perpetuate the "Dancing on the brink" theory.

Is Nigeria not "dancing on the brink"?

A place where the Federal Govt does nothing with over 50% allocation, and is just a bargaining bazaar where the different strongmen of each region send their appointees to chop money.

Besides, how many copies of his book does he shift?

Do you know anyone with any of his books?

His income from book writing adds little to his wallet abeg. . . . I wholly agree that Nigeria is not only dancing on the brink, but moonwalking on it.

oncolor:

For someone who published a book titled "Nigeria: Dancing on the brink" in November of 2010, I would take anything he says with a pinch of salt. How else will you justify your book and improve sales if not to perpetuate the "Dancing on the brink" theory.

We should be objective in analysis and pick holes in his analysis and not his person per se. I dont see anything wrong in what he wrote here, in fact everything tallies up with what we hear in Nigeria and the results released. He gives us insight into how rigging is done at collation centers which is the truth.

nice write up

Lagosboy:

We should be objective in analysis and pick holes in his analysis and not his person per se. I dont see anything wrong in what he wrote here, in fact everything tallies up with what we hear in Nigeria and the results released. He gives us insight into how rigging is done at collation centers which is the truth.

Nobody can pick holes in his analysis. Hence they attack his person 

At least no one can now pretend as if the elections were free and fair, and the 80%+ turnout was credible.

Buhari rightly rejected the results.