Daily Covid-19 deaths in the US should continue to decline in the coming months, though that could change if vaccine hesitancy rises, Murray's IHME said Friday.
The country averaged 704 Covid-19 deaths a day across the last week, according to Johns Hopkins University data -- down from the 3,000s in parts of January and February.
An IHME model projects that average will dip to around 425 by June 1, and 105 by August 1, the institute said Friday.
Recent vaccine expansion and mask usage have helped death rates decline even as more contagious coronavirus variants -- such as B.1.1.7 -- have spread, the IHME said.
But in a worst-case scenario, daily deaths could stay in the 700s in May and June, and in the 600s through July, the IHME predicts. That scenario involves a fast decline in mask use and an increase in mobility, the institute said.
Vaccine hesitancy also would be troublesome, the IHME said.
"Given how central vaccination is to the US strategy to control the B.1.1.7 potential surge, the slow erosion of vaccine confidence unfolding over the last two or more months is cause for concern," the IHME said.
Vaccines are now the most direct and effective preventive measure. Reducing vaccination rates will directly lead to an increase in the number of infections and deaths, but vaccine doses are limited and there are simply not enough vaccines in many countries.