By Nasir Ayitogo
Saturday, May 29, marked exactly six
years since President Muhammadu
Buhari took office as the fourth man to
lead Nigeria in the Fourth Republic.

The former army general who became
the first opposition candidate to win a
presidential election in Nigeria
returned to power in 2015 on the
strength of his promise to tackle
insecurity, fight corruption and
improve the economy. His election
followed the abduction of more than
200 schoolgirls from a Chibok in the
country’s northeast Borno state by Boko
Haram armed group.

Boko Haram used to illustrate the story.
In his inaugural address, Mr Buhari
vowed to tackle “head on” the Boko
Haram insurgents who at the time had
taken over several local government
areas in Borno, Adamawa and Yobe
states.

He vowed to crush Boko Haram within
three months and recover all the
territories it had seized.
But six years after and about two years
to the end of his final second term,
insecurity has worsened beyond the
Boko Haram insurgency. Virtually all
parts of Nigeria are currently battling
one form or another of violent crimes,
evidence that the president has failed
to keep his promise on security.
The Global Terrorism Index (2019) ranked
Nigeria as the third-worst nation prone
to terrorism with no improvement since
2017.

Asides insurgency, banditry, kidnapping
and secessionist violence are pushing
Nigeria towards the brink of collapse
with many calling for the resignation of
the president for “failing” to secure the
country.
Nobel Laureate Wole Soyinka has
described the country as a war zone and
the Sultan of Sokoto recently said
northern Nigeria is the worst place to
live in the country.
Last month, a lawmaker from the
president’s ruling All Progressives
Congress (APC), Smart Adeyemi, was
moved to tears while contributing to a
debate in the Senate on the dire
security situation.
Overwhelmed by the situation, the
president appealed to the United States
for help.

PREMIUM TIMES in this report
examines the steps the Buhari
government has taken towards ending
the insecurity and why they are yet to
yield the desired results.

Fighting Boko Haram
Upon resumption of office in 2015, Mr
Buhari relocated the military command
from Abuja to Maiduguri, the
birthplace of Boko Haram.

He improved the military budget and
approved the purchase of arms for the
security forces and agencies.

Based on his promise to also end
corruption, Mr Buhari began a probe of
the use of military funds under the
previous administration of President
Goodluck Jonathan.

As part of that process, he ordered the
arrest of the former National Security
Adviser, Sambo Dasuki, over alleged
embezzlement of $2 billion or nearly
N650 billion allocated for arms
purchase.

Some gains were made in the recovery
of lost territories with the government
repeatedly claiming it had recorded
“technical defeat” over the terror
group, but the reprieve was short-lived.
Boko Haram’s split in 2016, leading to a
splinter group called Islamic State-
West Africa (ISIS-WA), heralded a new
dawn of terror.

Matt Eze, a security analyst believes the
presidents’ “lengthy and constant
medical trips abroad left a leadership
gap that emboldened insecurity.”
Barely one year in office, Mr Buhari
made his medical trip to the UK as
president. He continued to make such
trips and in 2017 alone, spent over 150
days abroad treating an undisclosed
ailment.

A Daily Trust analysis
showed that the
president by 2017
had spent over eight months in the UK
since he took office.
Meanwhile, in 2018, the military
suffered its highest fatalities against Boko-
haram. The group captured a large
cache of military hardware and was
responsible for the death of at least 600
Nigerian soldiers , the Conversation
reported.

In the same year, it attacked nine
military bases and overran the
Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF)
base in Baga, Borno state.

Mr Buhari would soon start losing key
political allies ahead of his reelection
bid in 2019 due largely to the worsening
insecurity. Several states in the war-
ravaged regions of the north threatened
not to vote for him .

In a frantic move to reassure Nigerians
of his commitment to ending the
insurgency, the president in late 2018
approved the withdrawal of $462 million
from the Excess Crude Account (ECA)
for payment to the United States for the
procurement of 12 Super Tucano
aircraft, without prior approval of the
National Assembly.

Within the same period, he also gave
approval to the military to make
weapons purchases worth $1 billion,
former defence minister, Mansur Dan
Ali, had said.

The jets have not been delivered to
Nigeria and the Nigerian army has kept
blaming inadequate weapons and
personnel for its losses in the fight
against insurgency.

After months of pressure over his
response to the worsening security
situation, Mr Buhari in January fired his
service chiefs and top military
commanders.

In his new year message, the president
admitted that insecurity was destroying
investments in Nigeria under his watch.

Funding
In the past decade, even before Mr
Buhari took office, Nigeria’s defence
budget had taken a large chunk of the
total budget.

Under former President Jonathan, in
the 2015 budget, N934 billion was
allocated to the security sector.

The figures for 2011 and 2012 were
N920 billion and N924 billion
respectively while N923 billion each
was given to the sector in 2013 and
2014.

How these huge sums were spent
however remains unclear as there were
no reliable performance reports by the
security agencies at the time.

In the last five years under President
Buhari, the defence budget continued
to be high with N878.4 billion and
N840.56 billion earmarked for the
military in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

Yet, the performance of the military
remains poor. So what accounts for the
mismatch of funding and effectiveness?
Corruption, funds mainly allotted to
recurrent budgets and late passage of
annual budgets are the main factors
militating against effective use of funds
to tackle insecurity, according to
security experts.

For instance, the military and the police
spent a whopping 91 per cent of their
budgets on recurrent expenditure in
2020, comprising overhead and
personnel costs.

The Ministry of Defence, comprising the
Army, Navy, Air Force, Defence
Headquarters, Nigerian Defence
Academy, Defence Intelligence Agency
and 11 other units shared N878 billion
in 2020.

Of the total allocation, the recurrent
expenditure stood at N778 billion while
the remaining N99 billion went to
capital expenditure for the purchase of
defence equipment, sea boats,
rehabilitation of barracks across the six
geo-political zones, procurement of
ammunition among other things needed
to fight insecurity and defend the
Nigerian territory.

Recurrent expenditure goes into
personnel cost, comprising salaries,
wages, allowances and social
contributions.

Of the N409 billion received by the
police in 2020, the total recurrent
expenditure was N395 billion,
representing a huge 96.75 per cent of
the allocation.

The situation is forcing some of the
security agencies to make part
payments for security items they would
have used to fight insecurity.

On the corruption front, a recent survey
by the Conversation gathered that some
military personnel , politicians and other
public officers were diverting public
funds meant to fight terror and
insecurity.

The report revealed how expenditures
are sometimes duplicated using
different headings by staff in the
defence ministry and military
institutions.

It also showed that the lack of
transparency in the procurement
process encouraged corruption. The
procurement of military weapons was
usually shrouded in secrecy which
meant that outdated items instead of
modern weapons were purchased.

Negotiating with terror groups
Globally, the dilemma of fighting
insurgents, militant groups or bandits
have been either to fight them to the
finish or to engage them in talks and
negotiations towards amicable
settlements.

Many developed countries battling
terrorists, including the U.S., have
engaged in negotiations with them even
though they sometimes deny such
publicly.

Nigeria officially started negotiating
with armed groups back in 2009 with
the late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s
amnesty deal with Niger Delta militants
aimed at reducing unrest in the oil-rich
region.

President Buhari in March 2018
announced that his government was
ready to accept the “unconditional
laying down of arms by any member of
the Boko Haram group who shows
strong commitment in that regard.”

In July 2020, some “repentant” Boko
Haram terrorists in Borno State were
“rehabilitated” and given the
opportunity to live normal lives.

Many Nigerians, however, criticised this
move. A majority of Nigerians who
participated in an online poll by
PREMIUM TIMES in March 2020 kicked
against a proposed bill to create an
agency for the rehabilitation of
repentant Boko Haram members. The
bill had triggered outrage and debate
after it was introduced.

Many fear that releasing ‘repentant’
Boko Haram militants into the civilian
population could be counterproductive.
Negotiating with terrorists cannot
guarantee a lasting solution but
embolden them to keep making endless
demands, security experts say.

The Niger-Delta amnesty programme
has been sustained as the government
is still paying militants to dissuade
them from resuming hostilities.

Authorities in Katsina, Sokoto, and
Zamfara states initiated direct
negotiations with armed groups last
year. As part of these negotiations, the
governors offered criminal groups
amnesties and other incentives to end
violent attacks.

But these agreements have failed partly
because many of the armed groups lack
central command hence it was difficult
bringing them all to one negotiation
table. Collapsed negotiations have led to
renewed attacks.

The Katsina State Governor, Aminu
Masari, said he was betrayed on two
occasions by bandits after they were
granted amnesty by the state.
Paying ransom to kidnappers
Kidnapping for ransom has become
lucrative and pervasive in the last five
years.

PREMIUM TIMES in 2018 reported how
some lawmakers said the release of
some of the Chibok girls kidnapped in
April 2014, involved payment of
ransom.

The abduction of Leah Sharibu and her
colleagues in Dapchi reportedly brought
the government to the negotiation table
with terrorists.

In December 2020, about 344
schoolboys were declared missing after
gunmen attacked a school in Kankara
near Katsina, the president’s home
state.

Although jihadists claimed responsibility ,
the boys were later freed after a ransom
was allegedly paid, security experts
said. They believe such payment and
negotiations have become part of the
government’s strategy of fighting crime.

A recent report published by SB Morgen
(SBM) Intelligence said between 2011
and 2020, Nigerians paid at least $18.34
million (₦7 billion) in ransoms to
kidnappers.

Terrorists who smuggle in weapons
through the Sahara Desert are said to
rely on ransoms paid by kidnapped
hostages.

Highway: Regional policing and CCTVs
Despite numerous checkpoints along
many highways, violent crimes, killings
and kidnappings remain rampant on
Nigerian roads.

The killing of Funke Olakunrin , the 58-
year-old daughter of a Yoruba leader,
Reuben Fasoranti, in a kidnap attempt
by suspected herdsmen at Kajola along
Ore-Ijebu Ode expressway – was one of
the most widely reported violent
crimes recorded on Nigerian roads in
the last three years.

It drew national outrage at the time
with the Inspector-General of Police
(IGP) ordering a “total overhaul” of the
security structures on highways across
southern Nigeria.

In the aftermath of the incident, the
Buhari government ‘agreed’ to allow
state governors in the South-west
employ community policing strategies
to curb the rising spate of insecurity in
the region.

President Buhari also said the
government would install CCTV cameras
along highways among other measures
to check violent crimes. However, little
or nothing has been done in that
regard.

Following negotiations with the federal
government, the governors of the
South-west states established Amotekun
as a state-based law enforcement
agency last year.

However, a PREMIUM TIMES analysis
revealed that more than a year after the
establishment of Amotekun, kidnapping
and killings have remained rampant in
the region.

Similarly, governors of the South-east
states last month announced the launch
of a security outfit codenamed Ebube
Agu (Wonderful Tiger). They also
announced a permanent ban on open
grazing.

But constant clashes between the
security agencies and ESN, the
paramilitary wing of the outlawed
Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), are
capable of scuttling efforts to keep the
region safe with Ebube Agu.

Botched RUGA programme
President Buhari in 2019 announced the
RUGA programme, an initiative to
enable willing states to contribute land
to the federal government for
construction of animal husbandry
settlements as a solution to the farmer/
herders crisis, which has claimed
thousands of lives and led to the
destruction of properties valued at
billions of naira.

RUGA is projected as a fresh idea to
create the infrastructure that
encourages restricted pastoralism,
which many have demanded as an
alternative to the highly risky practice
of open grazing.

The presidency had said 12 states have
indicated willingness to be part of the
programme.

But after it was heavily criticised by
many Nigerians with many state
governors opposing it, the president
suspended the programme while the
crisis remains unresolved.

Porous borders and arm proliferation
The president in 2016 gave approval to
the International Organisation for
Migration (IOM) to install e-border
facilities in 10 Nigerian border posts as
a way of ensuring better management
of Nigeria’s porous borders.

Nigeria’s border with Niger, Cameroon
and Chad which spans about 1,000 km is
poorly policed, a situation heightening
the potential spread of terrorist
activities into the northwest region.

The vulnerability of the border to the
infiltration of terror groups is
compounded by the presence of large
forest reserves in the region. The vast,
rugged terrain, sparse population, and
dense vegetation make surveillance
difficult—making the forests ideal
hiding places and operational bases for
terror groups.

The forested landscape constitutes
ungoverned spaces, where the presence of
the authorities is either nonexistent or, at
best, sporadic.

President Buhari had on several
occasions blamed herders’ attacks on
terrorists from Chad and Niger who
enter Nigeria through its porous
borders.

Intelligence gathering, monitoring
Mr Buhari in 2018 said his government
was refocusing its fight against
insecurity by investing heavily on the
country’s intelligence gathering
capacity.

“At the level of the military and
intelligence agencies, intelligence-
sharing must become the rule and not
the exception,” he noted while speaking
at the 8th National Security Seminar
2018 of the Alumni Association of the
National Defence College (NDC).

According to him, the scope of the
battle against insurgency is broadened
by the vast landmass of the North-east.
He said without investing in intelligence
gathering, there would be very little
hope for the country.

A recent analysis by this newspaper
revealed how Nigeria’s poor intelligence
gathering processes have crippled its
ability to nip crime, violence and
killings in the bud as done in more
advanced climes.

Many of the crimes committed and
violence recorded could have been
averted if Nigeria had a virile
intelligence network and there is
greater collaboration, not rivalry , among
the government units tasked with
providing intelligence and security, say
some of these experts we spoke to.

Way forward
A security expert, Timothy Avele, in his
reaction to the security situation in the
country blamed both the security
agencies and some state governments.

On the part of security agencies, Mr
Avele ascribed the lack of improvement
to what he described as the non-
coordination of security agents.

He also said governors were aiding
insecurity by paying ransoms to
kidnappers rather than finding a lasting
solution.

“Security situation as it stands now is
getting worse. A day hardly passed
without hearing one form of insecurity
or the other in many parts of the
country.

“The government is trying but it is not
enough, it needs to do more. The
missing link seems to be lack of proper
coordination among security agencies
and appropriate intelligence
application.

“Secondly, the state governments are
contributing indirectly to the insecurity
ravaging the country by negotiating
with bandits, kidnappers and paying
them millions as compensation. This
action will only encourage others to
form criminal gangs within and in other
states.

“Thirdly, many states are simply sitting
and waiting for FG to come and remove
criminal enterprise in their state
instead of doing something concrete to
battle the scourge

“Lastly, we can only expect to see
results when there’s a political will to
end insecurity across Nigeria. A lot of
sacrifices and compromises on the part
of the government, institutions, security
agencies and citizens is a must,” he
said.


https://www.premiumtimesng.com/news/headlines/464754-analysis-six-years-after-buhari-has-failed-to-keep-promise-of-securing-nigeria.html

Ok

Reconstrute your post so people can read it better

In God we trust

In saner clime, he would have been compelled to follow his own advise by doing the needful and relieve the country of his calamitous regime