During the second world war in the 1940s, the British army realised that it needed to have a specialised unit whose job was to provide a scientific (factual and quantifiable) basis for allocating military resources (guns, bullets, food, shoes, uniform, etc) to the different commandants in different battle fields. This was essential to avoid waste, misallocation and under-supply of resources to the fighting soldiers. Historians generally agree that this decision was critical to the success of the British and Allied forces when hostilities with the Nazis reached its peak. This process of strategic allocation of resources later became known as operations research (OR) and is taught in many universities, and is applied in many sectors in virtually every serious country, with the exception of places like Nigeria.

This is why we in Nigeria plan for elections and then postpone them once, and then postpone them again; with elementary excuses such as ‘ballot papers did not arrive on time’ – or that the political parties are not ready. Someone should check the calendar please and confirm to me if we are not in 2011, sixty years after OR was introduced in the 1940s. This is also why despite the history of violence in specific states of Nigeria, no one planned for the deployment of extra security for INEC staff, vulnerable corpers, and other innocent citizens, who were murdered in their hundreds. INEC simply asked for billions of Naira which it used to buy vehicles, laptops, printers, and used the change to compensate corpers. This is a very primitive way of getting things done, with all due respect to Jega and INEC in general.

Now, INEC did its 'best', but it cannot dissociate itself from the failures and calamities that occurred in certain aspects. If INEC was a Japanese entity, resignations would be flying left, right and centre. Commissions of inquiry would be established, and for the next 10 years, thesis and research papers would be churned on with titles such as[i] ‘Elections 2011 – A security and operational assessment of INEC’[/i]. But what am I saying? This is Nigeria; we prefer fire brigade approach to everything. We think research is something you do only at the tail end of your degree programme. We tend to prefer incompetence to capacity; we tend to prefer mediocrity to expertise. We prefer to pump billions into INEC which is spent on mediocre staff led by resident electoral commissioners, (RECs) who - in all likelihood- have no requisite skills or training in strategic planning, not to mention operations research. In short, INEC simply lacks adequate capacity.

Now, this essay is not about the freeness or fairness of the 2011 elections, as I am not qualified to pontificate on that matter. But when it comes to putting X and Y to get Z, then I have a few things to say in this regard.

I am not sure if there will ever be a forensic team whose job is to dissect the elections and tell INEC how it can do better in 2015; which is a shame. However, we need to improve because development cannot take place in stagnation. A good place to start is learning to value data in either quantitative or qualitative forms so that we can use it to develop Nigeria. This is the 21st century. Today, we can throw a stone which weights 0.2 kg in the air with a speed of 5m/s; we can tell how long it will take the stone to reach a certain height before it falls down due to the force of gravity (9.8m/s2). We can even calculate the impact the stone would have if it falls on water, on pavement or on someone’s head. In fact, today a courier company can take your parcel from Calabar at 11:00am on Monday and assure you that it can deliver it to California, USA after 4 working days. They can do this because they have the length of route, mode of transport, cost of fuel, customs clearance and even NEPA blackout all figured out in their operational model. Yet INEC in Nigeria cannot deliver ballot boxes on time or plan for security in Kaduna of all places; a place which has a history of bloodshed. Haba!

As far as smooth elections are concerned, INEC must learn to standardise and have full control of its operations. INEC must learn to capture all the factors which will produce smooth and safe conduct of elections in Nigeria and represent them (i.e. model them) so that we can work with these variables to arrive at desired results. For the uninitiated, a model is a representation of a process or a concept. A model can be conceptual or mathematical or both. Most people call mathematical models equations, which is okay, but is a lay man’s language. As an example, let us consider a model for Smooth Elections, abbreviate as ‘Se’. In this model, if we want to capture all the variables or factors (both good and bad) that would affect the peaceful and orderly conduct of elections in Nigeria, then these variables could include the following:

Trustworthy Head of INEC (Twh)
Billions of Naira (Bn)
Strategic Planning (Sp)
Reliable Voter Register (Rv)
Logistics and Resources (Lr)
Risk Management (Rm)
Security Lapses (SL)
Ballot Snatching (Bs)
Thuggery and Intimidation (Tx)

By now, I expect that Prof. Jega has learnt that Smooth election is NOT simply equal to Trustworthy Head of INEC + Billions of Naira. See Equation 1 below.

[img]http://1.bp..com/-4GMCZvd5Clg/TbzpBtxrq9I/AAAAAAAAABI/ok5FyRyHVYw/s1600/eqn1.jpg[/img]


However, it is more probable that Smooth election equals: (Trustworthy Head of INEC + Billions of Naira + Strategic Planning + Reliable Voter Register + Logistics and Resources + Risk Management) all divided by (Security Lapses + Ballot Snatching + Thuggery and Intimidation). See Equation 2 below.

[img]http://3.bp..com/-pRhbaB-x22A/TbzpFq0pjMI/AAAAAAAAABM/lv8DPBD1MtA/s1600/eqn2.jpg[/img]


In short what our simplified model is saying (based on common facts) is that smooth elections (Se) in Nigeria is directly proportional to the ‘good variables’ which are: Trustworthy Head of INEC, Billions of Naira, Strategic Planning, Reliable Voter Register, Logistics and Resource as well as Risk Management. As these variables increase, the value of Se in Equation 2 will also increase. A high value of Se, is therefore desirable since we want to maximise chances of having smooth elections.

But there are some ‘bad variables’ which will negate (i.e. reduce) this value of Se. That is why our model in Equation 2 is also saying that Se is inversely proportional to Security Lapses, Ballot Snatching and Thuggery and Intimidation. Inverse proportion here means that as these ‘bad variables’ increase, the value of Se will be lowered, as already noted in equation 2.

So clearly, if we minimise (or eliminate) the denominators, we will have a high value of numerator. Or in plain English, if we minimise Security Lapses, Ballot Snatching and Thuggery and Intimidation, then we stand a chance of having smooth equations.

This is a very simplified version of the kind of model INEC is supposed to have, but they do not. By now, plenty of you (readers) are probably wishing you paid more attention to Mr. Boniface, you O-Level mathematics teacher. Mathematics is indeed very sweet and beneficial IF you know its secrets and purpose. At this stage, the model we have is non-dimensional. Later on, one can apply units to the variables. At the end, we would have a 'Smooth elections Index' or SeI; which would indicate how smooth elections would be in any state of Nigeria. As such troublesome states like Bauchi would have an SeI of say 0.3, while peaceful states like Kwara would have an SeI of 0.8. A perfect SeI would be equal to 1.0, which may not be practically possible. These are just examples please, so I hope the point is clear.

For all practical purposes, such a model (like Equation 2) can be applied in every location/region of Nigeria. Different states will have different input values for these variables. So for example, whereas in Delta State the emphasis may be on minimising the variable ‘Bs’ (i.e. Ballot snatching); in Kaduna and Bauchi, the most important variable to minimise would be SL (i.e. Security lapses). Similarly, in places like my village where you need a 7-wheel drive, and swallow one mudu of Panadol in advance before you start the journey; variables like Lr (Logistic resources) are clearly of prime importance. With modelling, this is how problems are solved in the real world; and why mistakes are hardly repeated in countries that are serious about development and progress. Our so called leaders travel to these places and marvel that everything works. Why won’t they work when everything is ‘under control’?

In fact, modelling is such a beautiful and flexible tool that if a new circumstance or factor such as Earthquake (God forbid) suddenly appears in Nigeria, then we simply call this variable ‘Ek’ and slot it into the existing model. This means INEC can plan for earthquakes during elections. Life goes on.

Earlier, I mentioned qualitative data, which unlike quantitative data, cannot be expressed easily with numbers. However, such qualitative data usually represent intangible phenomenon like human emotions (disappointment, hope, belief, etc); and are equally important in research and problem-solving. So for example, if INEC can carry out surveys on those areas where anger and vexations were rife, they can understand better, the need to educate people on how elections are won. Clearly some people think because Mr. Wazobia had most votes in their backyard, then that makes him the winner.

Qualitative data is also obtained through interviews of stakeholders, focus group meetings, workshops, etc; all of which are valuable feedback mechanisms. It is not enough to mobilise people to register and vote. You have to understand their behaviour in order to manage it from getting out of hand. You cannot organise elections and wash your hands off the fallouts. You must manage expectations by proper enlightenment. INEC has its work cut out and needs to start doing things scientifically. Our president, I believe is ready to support them.

Now can we join the rest of the world and move away from primitive ways of getting things done?


http://lowhangingfruits..com/2011/05/jegamatics-part-i.html