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Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? - Business (4) - Nairaland

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Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by deenee: 12:26am On Jul 17
jerrybone:

https://investorsreel.com/dangote-refinery-bailing-out-the-unbailable-funding-or-bailout/

Clearly who ever paid you for this watery write up didn't pay you well enough or must have over estimated your ability to do this hatchet job right.

First and foremost, no bank has called in Dangote's loans and infact they are falling over themselves to extend loans to him.

Secondly by law NNPC will have an equity stake in any refinery project that capacity to refine more than 200k barrels per day. This is the law that has been sacrosanct and in effect even before Dangote got his license to build a refinery so all the gist about NNPC bailing him out is bullocks!

Thirdly, the completion day for the Refinery was shifted about three times for the underlisted reasons

First was when he decided to increase the proposed capacity from 450k to 650k per day hence they had to recalibrate the entire project schedule neccesitating the néed to shift.

Second was due to community clashes at project site and work stopped for over 4 months at this time

Thirdly due to the covid 19 induced pandemic

Now back to the loans and financing for the refinery, there is 30% equity contribution from Dangote himself, 60% foreign loans and 10% local debt from a syndication of banks.

Even the foreign loans have been brought in tranches as foreign direct investment forming part of the foreign reserves hence, the reason why he has a fixed repo contract with the CBN. And he is not the only one that has. All institutional investors both local and foreign have one kind of Fixed USD contract arrangement with the CBN. Even Innoson Motors has same so I wonder why the search light is on Dangote alone?

Let me also burst your bubble, Dangcem market cap is around 3 trillion naira making it one of the most capitalised stocks on the NGX and Dangote owns about 90% of DangCem directly and even doing share buy back to increase his stake.

So if he runs into any trouble all he needs to do is sell a few Dang Cem shares and move on. The same company is poised to do a trillion naira in turnover this year.

Finally the bloated cost your are quoting g here including the transatlantic pipeline, fertiliser plant and refinery.

Don't allow your self to be used as s tool of destruction and yes the refinery will work and Dangote will get more wealth whether you and your cohorts like it or not.

God bless Dangote
GOD BLESS Nigeria

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by barcaboi(m): 12:28am On Jul 17
Goldenboy224:
cool
If Nigeria breaks (Biafra, Oduduwa, Ijaw and Arewa).
You will truly know that dangote is just a political tool.


E go shock una
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by deenee: 12:36am On Jul 17
SIRTee15:


I think this is the major issue. Refinery business is not really a profitable venture that guarantees quick return on investment. Its a very low profit margin business.
It's going to be hard to attract foreign investors that won't demand two arms n two legs especially in a volatile region like nigeria. Dangote may end up becoming a minority stakeholder.
However, the refinery is too big to fail. A lot is at stake here. FG will have to find a way to ensure its completion...if it means taking over.

I doubt local investors can be of any help. Or is it not nigerian bank collecting 700 million dollars every year over a 7.5 billion loan. Na wa o.
Maybe Cubana and his boys can come to his rescue. undecided


Refinery business is not profitable yet Saudi Aramco is worth over 2 trillion dollars.

3 Likes

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by AdeOri99: 12:37am On Jul 17
oluseyiforjesus:
As long as his cement is not cheap is not a bailout but ............
It's a big shame if FG celebrate ds refinary, wat u can't build a man single handedly built it. It's a shame on FG
Reading is a good habit, inculcate it.
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by NaijaHelper1(m): 12:37am On Jul 17
deenee:


Clearly who ever paid you for this watery write up didn't pay you well enough or must have over estimated your ability to do this hatchet job right.

First and foremost, no bank has called in Dangote's loans and infact they are falling over themselves to extend loans to him.

Secondly by law NNPC will have an equity stake in any refinery project that capacity to refine more than 200k barrels per day. This is the law that has been sacrosanct and in effect even before Dangote got his license to build a refinery so all the gist about NNPC bailing him out is bullocks!

Thirdly, the completion day for the Refinery was shifted about three times for the underlisted reasons

First was when he decided to increase the proposed capacity from 450k to 650 per day hence they had to recalibrate the entire project schedule neccesitating the néed to shift.

Second was due to community clashes at project site snd work stop fir over 4 months at this time

Thirdly due to the covid 19 induced pandemic

Now back to the loans and financing for the refinery, there is 30% equity contribution from Dangote himself, 60% foreign loans and 10% local debt from a syndication of banks.

Even the foreign loans have been brought in tranches as foreign direct investment forming part of the foreign reserves hence, the reason why he has a fixed repo contract with the CBN. And he is not tjevonly one that has. All institutional investors both local and foreign have one kind of Fixed USD contract arrangement with the CBN. Even Innoson Motors has same so I wonder why the search light is on Dangote alone?

Let me also burst your bubble, Dangcem market cap is around 3 trillion naira making it one of the most capitalised stocks on the NGX and Dangote owns about 90% of DangCem directly and even doing share buy back to increase his stake.

So if he runs into any trouble all he needs to do is sell a few Dang Cem shares and move on. The same company is poised to do a trillion naira in turnover this year.

Finally the bloated cost your are quoting g here including the transatlantic pipeline, fertiliser plant and refinery.

Don't allow your self to be used as s tool of destruction and yes the refinery will work and Dangote will get more wealth whether you and your cohorts like it or not.

God bless Dangote
GOD BLESS Nigeria



Bless you for this.
The brain drain is really starting to take its toll on the Country. You can imagine the level of ignorance and crass assumptions displayed in that article.
So many airheaded individuals with cheap data and chinese android devices parading themselves as knowledgeable and writing bullshit. It's truly sad.

2 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by deenee: 12:41am On Jul 17
9jaRealist:


How is it humanly possible to cram so much IGNORANCE into one article? sad
Mr. Bako must be the sort of “seasoned economists” that have been in charge of the hapless Nigerian economy.

First, the NNPC is planning to take 20% in SIX private refineries, not just Dangote’s…
See this Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-refinery-equity-idAFL2N2NI1QL

Nonetheless, as already discussed here on Nairaland, Dangote is NOT HAPPY with the proposed acquisition…
See the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/6626446/mele-kyari-refinery-dangote-not


Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery BOUGHT (not gifted) forex from the CBN forex window…
At the OFFICIAL rate that it’s sold to ALL companies in the real sector (not to mention for school fees, travel, health tourism, etc.).

The obtuse drivel about costing and delays merely amplifies this dude’s cluelessness. No other refinery project elsewhere involves reclaiming land bigger than Victoria Island and building a virtual port, because Apapa cannot handle the equipment for this project. Furthermore, dude seems clueless that Covid disrupted value-chains GLOBALLY (or does he think the equipment is manufactured in Nigeria) and consequently delayed most (if not ALL) large-scale infrastructure projects around the world.


Finally, debt to build a refinery would be long-term…
Therefore, it is SILLY to peddle beer-parlor rumors about banks already calling in their loans.

So many Nigerians love to attack success while celebrating mediocrity and failure…
Whether it is due to primordial ethnic sentiments, envy or just darn right IGNORANCE, it’s a succinct self-indictment!

>

Please inbox me your account details. I need to reward you for this brilliant write up!
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by breathelove(f): 12:42am On Jul 17
TheSparrow:
This writeup is loaded with ignorance, weak assumptions and false narratives.
Please let's hear your own side.. we are listening
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by breathelove(f): 12:44am On Jul 17
Jimasun:
This report is so fake
Explain please
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by deenee: 12:46am On Jul 17
davodyguy:

This is a private project, that may consume the entire Dangote Industry.

All his estimated worth in cash and assets can't even finance this project.

Kpele Mr Net worth calculator. Maybe you can bail him out since you know that his cash and assets cannot finance the project.
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by Yankee101: 12:48am On Jul 17
jaxxy:


With the scale of this project government has to support it even if it means changing policies. Obasanjo did same to boost local manufacturing business. Same thing Buhari tried to do bt closing borders. It’s not only dangote.

That refinery must serve Nigerians.

You think a refinery is serving Nigerians?

Nope. The world is moving to clean energy


Wind, sun, batteries

You think it's a coincidence the oil majors are leaving nigeria?

3 Likes

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by Jimasun: 12:52am On Jul 17
breathelove:

Explain please
Dangote refinery has passed the stage where it would need a bailout.
It is already over 90% completed.
There is no financial bottleneck.
Dangote is even reluctant to accept the offer of FG to buy 20% stake in the refinery.
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by deenee: 12:53am On Jul 17
benzine:
So where is the oil for the refinery coming from? Has anyone discussed with the militants yet? Una go hear am

Na only Nigeria oil dey? even Ghana get oil and they have discovered oil in semi commercial quantities along Chad basin and River Niger-Benue trough.

He can also choose to buy from any of the countries in the middle east, India and even OPEC. Even your so called militants will sell to him once the price is right
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by deenee: 12:57am On Jul 17
Yankee101:


You think a refinery is serving Nigerians?

Nope. The world is moving to clean energy


Wind, sun, batteries

You think it's a coincidence the oil majors are living nigeria?

The world is moving to clean energy yet the US had the largest refined crude reserve with China and India stocking up to over take them.

It will take at least a quarter or half another century before clean energy can disrupt anything and by then the investment would have made multiple of returns

1 Like

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by Emir01: 1:02am On Jul 17
TheSparrow:
This writeup is loaded with ignorance, weak assumptions and false narratives.


Too weak craps. Mushroom write-up
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by babaolofin: 1:13am On Jul 17
TheSparrow:
This writeup is loaded with ignorance, weak assumptions and false narratives.

I totally disagreed with you. The writeup is very incisive and professional. This is the type of professional analysis required on this project.

After the delivery date was shifted 5 times, I gave up on the project. Emefiele must have given up ,but he has no choice other than to have hope. I will post some of my past comments on this project.
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by Ellasure: 1:16am On Jul 17
Dangote and company is advised not to allow the people called federal government of Nigeria in whatever form or way to become shareholders, part owners or whatever of the refinery.

Nigeria as a country does not have the good heart and mind to do business thoroughly and truthfully. Refinery business is a serious engineering concern and if you subject it to treacherous bureaucracy as found in Nigeria today. The business will surely collapse.

Instead look for foreigners as partners. Buy your crude oil and gas at international rates and sell. If the federal government of Nigeria is interested to buy from dangote let them buy land if there could not be reasonable agreement sell your products where you found suitable.
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by Ellasure: 1:18am On Jul 17
Dangote and company is advised not to allow the people called federal government of Nigeria in whatever form or way to become shareholders, part owners or whatever of the refinery.

Nigeria as a country does not have the good heart and mind to do business thoroughly and truthfully. Refinery businesse
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by RichAbujaGuy: 1:18am On Jul 17
"A contractor at the delayed refinery project, speaking under the condition of anonymity "

Story story. wink
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by grandstar(m): 1:21am On Jul 17
SIRTee15:


I think this is the major issue. Refinery business is not really a profitable venture that guarantees quick return on investment. Its a very low profit margin business.
It's going to be hard to attract foreign investors that won't demand two arms n two legs especially in a volatile region like nigeria. Dangote may end up becoming a minority stakeholder.
However, the refinery is too big to fail. A lot is at stake here. FG will have to find a way to ensure its completion...if it means taking over.

I doubt local investors can be of any help. Or is it not nigerian bank collecting 700 million dollars every year over a 7.5 billion loan. Na wa o.
Maybe Cubana and his boys can come to his rescue. undecided


It is a low margin business and refiners call it a "lousy business". I'm not sure why.

When I thought of investors, I thought of foreign investors and not local.

I'm sure getting foreign investors shouldn't be much of a problem for Dangote but selling off stakes to become a minority holder may not be acceptable to him.

His son if I'm correct is married to a Malaysian billionaires daughter. He should have billionaire friends in the Gulf and their sovereign funds may not mind investing.

If the stockmarket was booming and PE ratios quite high, he could sell off part of his stake in Dangote Cement to finish the refinery. A large portion of his $11bn wealth his toed to his 93% stake in Dangote Cement.

I do strongly believe the project will be finished, either by him or by others.
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by afube: 1:26am On Jul 17
Goldenboy224:
cool
If Nigeria breaks (Biafra, Oduduwa, Ijaw and Arewa).
You will truly know that dangote is just a political tool.





I feel for Dangote really, his projections may be way off considering the massive earthquake taking place in the automobile industry worldwide .........how will the massive refinery meet its revenue projection with the massive uptake of electric-powered vehicles in China and Europe in particular, even the united states is going to launch a massive build-out of recharging stations for EV all around the country with massive subsidies for companies selling Electric Vehicles................... This electric vehicle revolution may be a knockout blow for that Dangote refinery and will definitely affect the price of crude oil going forward.......................................in my view Dangote should have invested these mega billions in battery production for the EV industry.


please note that electric vehicles are more efficient and effective cars than petrol-powered cars, they are more expensive right now but they will become cheaper than petrol cars in the next 3-5 years, it is not looking too good for Dangote industry as a whole....sad really

1 Like

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by deji17: 1:26am On Jul 17
9jaRealist:


How is it humanly possible to cram so much IGNORANCE into one article? sad
Mr. Bako must be the sort of “seasoned economists” that have been in charge of the hapless Nigerian economy.

First, the NNPC is planning to take 20% in SIX private refineries, not just Dangote’s…
See this Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-refinery-equity-idAFL2N2NI1QL

Nonetheless, as already discussed here on Nairaland, Dangote is NOT HAPPY with the proposed acquisition…
See the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/6626446/mele-kyari-refinery-dangote-not


Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery BOUGHT (not gifted) forex from the CBN forex window…
At the OFFICIAL rate that it’s sold to ALL companies in the real sector (not to mention for school fees, travel, health tourism, etc.).

The obtuse drivel about costing and delays merely amplifies this dude’s cluelessness. No other refinery project elsewhere involves reclaiming land bigger than Victoria Island and building a virtual port, because Apapa cannot handle the equipment for this project. Furthermore, dude seems clueless that Covid disrupted value-chains GLOBALLY (or does he think the equipment is manufactured in Nigeria) and consequently delayed most (if not ALL) large-scale infrastructure projects around the world.


Finally, debt to build a refinery would be long-term…
Therefore, it is SILLY to peddle beer-parlor rumors about banks already calling in their loans.

So many Nigerians love to attack success while celebrating mediocrity and failure…
Whether it is due to primordial ethnic sentiments, envy or just darn right IGNORANCE, it’s a succinct self-indictment!

>

God bless you bro for this rebuttal to the gibberish post.

1 Like

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by chloride6: 1:37am On Jul 17
TheSparrow:
This writeup is loaded with ignorance, weak assumptions and false narratives.

Do well to point them out please..
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by ELKHALIFAISIS(m): 1:41am On Jul 17
Next thing they will tell us now that we must pay so Dangote person business must flourish.... he should go and Learn from Tesla and Amazon and know how they topple their money as if they have printing machines... remove government patronage and monopoly Dangote is just that average Northerner without brain... igbo man should have all these federal government backing and see him climb to no1 position in world richest
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by Vireani79: 1:55am On Jul 17
free2ryhme:


We don hear

Deaf dey hear
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by Nigeriadondie: 1:57am On Jul 17
TheSparrow:
This writeup is loaded with ignorance, weak assumptions and false narratives.
Come up with yours
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by cescky(m): 2:15am On Jul 17
SimplyFacts:


Don't you see any around?

Lead by example, since your do smart, leech
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by 9jah(m): 2:18am On Jul 17
Southern Nigerians !!! Please let us stop this fighting among each other and fight our common enemy -The fulanis invaders -They are foreigners in our land Nigeria -These normads are uneducated the quota system where someone from Yobe can score 2 to get into a federal secondary school and someone from Anambra and other parts of the south need to score 200 and above to get into the same federal school and your are here trying to argue with them with your intellect is waste of time-They have been presidents and head of states for 40 something years with no concrete achievement but to form a Caliphate in our indigenous lands-Boko hari have borrowed Nigeria to death using 71% of our yearly economy to service debt -which 80% come from the southerners recources-They are busy building a railways with borrowed fund to Niger republic so they can import more Jihadist and equip them with AK-47 to kill us and claim our fathers land ,claiming RUGA this people are normads-Nigeria need a new population census its only in Nigeria that you migrate away from the sea to the desert and the population rises this doesnt even happen in any animal forest -People and animals migrates towards the sea not away from it -Onitsha -Lagos -Ibadan population if we have the right census is greater than the northern population because middle belt is excluded -How they got 140 million people in the north is a fallacy from hell-Ive resided in the northern Nigeria and that population is a fugazi -Nigeria is a country where a president will release 1009 confirm terrorists and jail freedom fighters and declare another wanted while giving terrorists ramsoms and call it a business-We in the south left Nigeria to foreign countries ,because there is no opportunities for us in our fathers land while the Fulani foreigners on our land occupies every important federal positions -We have to keep sending billions of dollars each year to sustaine our families in Nigeria thereby helping Nigeria crumbling economy-All what you Fulanis are busy doing is to kill us and rape our women with your normadic -Outdated Jihadist agenda's-You want to build a Caliphate in our Fatherland abi? Ok you dont want electronic voting system in Nigeria ,because trees and cows vote in your region -We want a divorce-Na by force to be one Nigeria -We no do again-Our four fathers and our parents have made a mistake including the devil himself Lugard because he is not a lord in my eyes -but we are not them -Go and get your Caliphate alone and leave our recourses and land for us .

1 Like

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by pacespot(m): 2:23am On Jul 17
More like FG is building refinery in the name of dangote, dangote might be the only reason why Forex scarcity has weighed down on naria value against dollar, causing enormous hardship among ordinary Nigerians with higher costs of goods and services. Because we talk about oil price slump depleting our foreign reserve, but now that the oil price is going up, why hasn't it reflected in naira value?

1 Like 1 Share

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by chukwuibuipob: 2:41am On Jul 17
Crunchyg2:
Hello good people of nairaland. I run a POS business which I just got a new location which I want to open a second POS but my challenge is enough fund. I need someone who can invest 100k and get 10k return every month or 50k and get 5k return every month and anytime you are ready to take your initial capital back you can take it. I am in Lagos and I am ready to provide you any thing that you might need as collateral . My number is below on my signature.
Ur address what y have as collateral
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by chukwuibuipob: 2:42am On Jul 17
MEGAWATCH:
Ajokuta steel unsuccessful,
Dangote refinery going the same way,
What will ever work in Nigeria?
Club house, church, mosque and militants
Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by skj1377(m): 2:46am On Jul 17
Chairman business is 50:50 no sure bet. The writer has a point 2013 till 2021 is 8yrs covid was only last year. The completion date has been shifted 2 times prior and we all know since we read newspapers. Banks will be knocking his door because they have reschedule and restructured the loans twice now. Dont forget in 2013 dollar was N159 that was when he agreed to the loan in Dollars with a projected completion of 3yrs or 6yrs max. Nobody envisaged the huge devaluation of the naira and consequences to foreign debt obligations .My dear if you borrow from a bank to build an estate in a specified time frame hoping to repay with rent and for whatever reason you could not the banks will knock on your doors. Dangote made a mistake and in life one serious mistake is all it takes. Firstly a modular design with swift completion period will ensure he starts repaying from the little he produces. Secondly oil business is not cement or sugar business people Dont fight war for cement or sugar, a little sabotage by Cia, mossad or British intelligence is enough to delay the project long enough for Dangote to be the poorest black man. The refinaries/governments we buy petrol from for the last 30yrs will ensure a delay long enough to ruin the project. Some projects are best done by serious governments then handed over to private sectors to manage large scale refinaries are one. I may be wrong but pls stop calling people ignorant because you have a contrary opinion your talking like some kind of expert but still not making any sense explaining away a delay of over 8yrs on covid 19. Pls write what your opinion is arm chair expert.
9jaRealist:


How is it humanly possible to cram so much IGNORANCE into one article? sad
Mr. Bako must be the sort of “seasoned economists” that have been in charge of the hapless Nigerian economy.

First, the NNPC is planning to take 20% in SIX private refineries, not just Dangote’s…
See this Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/nigeria-refinery-equity-idAFL2N2NI1QL

Nonetheless, as already discussed here on Nairaland, Dangote is NOT HAPPY with the proposed acquisition…
See the following thread: https://www.nairaland.com/6626446/mele-kyari-refinery-dangote-not


Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery BOUGHT (not gifted) forex from the CBN forex window…
At the OFFICIAL rate that it’s sold to ALL companies in the real sector (not to mention for school fees, travel, health tourism, etc.).

The obtuse drivel about costing and delays merely amplifies this dude’s cluelessness. No other refinery project elsewhere involves reclaiming land bigger than Victoria Island and building a virtual port, because Apapa cannot handle the equipment for this project. Furthermore, dude seems clueless that Covid disrupted value-chains GLOBALLY (or does he think the equipment is manufactured in Nigeria) and consequently delayed most (if not ALL) large-scale infrastructure projects around the world.


Finally, debt to build a refinery would be long-term…
Therefore, it is SILLY to peddle beer-parlor rumors about banks already calling in their loans.

So many Nigerians love to attack success while celebrating mediocrity and failure…
Whether it is due to primordial ethnic sentiments, envy or just darn right IGNORANCE, it’s a succinct self-indictment!

>

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Dangote Refinery: Bailing Out The Unbailable - Investment Or Bailout? by shegun4sur: 3:32am On Jul 17
Goldenboy224:
cool
If Nigeria breaks (Biafra, Oduduwa, Ijaw and Arewa).
You will truly know that dangote is just a political tool.





Lol. Who told you Benue state will be in the same country with borno??

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