President Goodluck Jonathan will, baring last-minute changes, today present a budget of N4.2 trillion for 2011 to a joint session of the National Assembly but without the expected cut in recurrent expenditure.

The president had approved the 2010 budget, which contained an estimated expenditure of N4.6 trillion, with a deficit of N1.52 trillion or 4.66 per cent of Gross Domestic Product ( GDP).

Jonathan had initially refused to sign the budget because of the discrepancies noticed in the bill submitted to the Presidency but changed his mind after a meeting with the leadership of the National Assembly.
The government had sent a proposal of N4.4 trillion to the National Assembly with a deficit of N1.32 trillion or 4.05 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Federal Government’s assumptions for the 2010 budget were based on a production capacity of 2.35 million barrels per day, a benchmark price of $67 per barrel and an average exchange rate of N150 per dollar.
The 2010 budget was made up of a capital expenditure of N1.9 trillion and recurrent expenditure of N2.1 trillion and a total supplementation of N123. 4 billion.
Out of the amount, N108.3 billion was for statutory transfers; N497.1 billion for debt service; N2.1 trillion for recurrent non-debt expenditure, while the balance of N1.9 trillion was for contribution to the development for capital expenditure for the year ending May 31, 2010.

The 2011 budget, which has N3.2 trillion for recurrent expenditure and N1 trillion for capital expenditure is benchmarked at $62 per barrel of crude oil, according to highly placed sources.
However, the expected cut in the recurrent expenditure is said to be left out for now due to the realisation that for it to take effect, workers may have to be laid off.

But another source said the committee that was set up by the Minister of Finance, Dr Olusegun Aganga, to look into the recurrent expenditure issue was yet to submit its report. It is headed by Professor Anya O. Anya.

The overall figures for the 2011 budget, according to the source, may still change within the last few hours left before the presentation as some fine-tuning was said to be ongoing so as to capture all needed details for a sound budget.
Mergers between some departments and parastatals and retirements, both voluntary and compulsory, in the federal workforce are said to be necessary before the issue of reduction in recurrent expenditure can be addressed.

“All these are cost-saving measures but they are things that cannot be done overnight. It is not a six-month thing. The government would have to do this gradually and over time,” the source said.

To ensure that the reduction of the recurrent expenditure sails smoothly from 2012 when it would be expected that all the measures to see it through would have been in place, ministries have started building the database of staff.

The unwieldy recurrent expenditure is said to leave little or nothing for capital expenditure, which impinges on infrastructural development, hence the move to reverse the trend.

“But unless the excess workforce is eased out in a coordinated manner, it may cause other social problems,” the source said.
Some parastatals have been identified as duplications while overseas courses for staff are said to cost a sizeable chunk.

"Some of the courses could be held in Nigeria. In terms of cost benefit, it is better to pay for the trainers to come to Nigeria rather send the staff over there," the source added.

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