I’m working from a couple assumptions: the Texans were right at the 2011 cap which was the same as the 2012 cap, and there are no $10 million roster bonuses totally unreported for a current Texan player.

Also, I’m assuming that the Texans can’t carry over more dead money from preseason 2011 cuts into 2012. Some of the cuts could have been equally divided between 2011 and 2012 but no cuts could have been pushed forward without a 2011 hit.

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I looked at all the cap hits of existing contracts to find which ones were on the increase: Joseph, Demeco, Schaub, Cushing, Duane Brown combine for an additional $3 million in cap hits. And, Arian Foster adds another $8 million in cap hit. So, that’s an additional $11 million.

Next, I looked at the group of UFAs that won’t count against the cap and added the majority of their hits to be subtracted from the total (Myers, Brisiel, Rackers, Ward, etc…) that should be about $10 million off the books.

Then, according to Spotrac, Mario counted $15 million against the 2011 cap. That comes off the books as well (though many reports say it was $18 million). Finally, I added up the business done by Houston the past 24 hours… the cutting of (Winston, Vickers, Leinart) and restructure of Andre Johnson.

Conservatively, those numbers save a total of $11 million. All those numbers factored together comes to a net savings of $25 million from last year’s cap number.

Then, one can add things like Cody’s $1 million reduction of salary, an apparent reduction of cap hit from Danieal Manning, and whatever dead money fell off the books in 2011 and the number is very likely close to $30 million. Oh, and don’t forget the $1.6 million gift added to the cap complements of the Redskins and Cowboys.

Now, $30 million in cap room is not that much space when you need to add as many pieces as the Texans do. They’ve lost 18 free agents since yesterday. So, there is a lot of work to do.

However, they have the money to do it. Either the Texans have decided to make Bob McNair a bunch of money by raising ticket prices while dumping salary or the Texans have plans to be active the next few weeks.

I have to believe the Texans recognize that there is not enough money to sign the 500+ free agents in this market. They must believe it will soon be a buyer’s market and they are determined to be left holding the money.

What do you think? You heard it here first. Texans will be spending pretty big in the next few days.

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