Who Will be PDP Flag Bearer in 2023 Presidential Election?
By eeetuk

People Democratic party (PDP) is favored by all the political metrics to win 2023 presidential election in Nigeria with one exception: Who will be PDP flag bearer in general election? Before I answer this important question, let me examine in details these metrics first.

President Buhari began presidency with public approval rating at 78% in 2015, according to NOIPolls. Today, President Buhari public approval rating is at 27% and his job approval rating stands at 17%, according to latest Statista Account access polls. Nigerians are totally dissatisfied with the direction of the country under President Buhari. Unemployment in Nigeria is at all-time high. And according to market economics latest number, unemployment rate in Nigeria is 33%. Students who graduate from schools cannot find work and they do not know what their future holds. Economic downturn is the worst in 27 years, according to BBC research report.

Furthermore, rising insecurity in Nigeria has no end in sight. Clashes between herders and farmers had resulted in the death of thousands of Nigerians, since President Buhari became president. Banditry and kidnapping—resulting in the kidnapping and adoption of school children have skyrocketed. Some reports said over five thousand people were kidnapped and adopted in 2021 alone.

These metrics are what voters in Nigeria will use to determine whether to keep the ruling party, APC or move in new direction---voting PDP into power. If I am in APC, I will be worried about holding on to power, given the above metrics. They represent the darkest side of government management in any Nigerian administration.

General speaking, when the ruling party records so many failures like we have seen in President Buhari administration, the opposition party—that is PDP wins the election. These metrics have proven to be right for many years. I have some examples here: US President Jimmy Carter, lost to Ronald Reagan in 1980. President George Bush, lost to Clinton in 1992. And most recently, President Donald J. Trump lost to Joseph Biden.

So, no one knows who PDP will choose as its party flag bearer until the conclusion of party primaries---which will produce the party flag bearer. However, one name which has been mentioned more often than others in PDP is former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

The Impact of religion in election
In talking to friends, Atiku Abubakar asset for PDP is because he is a Muslim and has experience in running national elections. His possible opponent, Mr. Bola Tinubu is a Muslim as well. If Bola Tinubu emerges as APC flag bearer, PDP will need a person with strong Islamic credentials to counter Bola Tinubu Muslim support in the north. What this means is that if PDP fills in a Christian as its party flag bearer, Bola Tinubu and APC party will sweep North and win the presidential election.

The area of Election Management that PDP should consider
When it comes to elections, the Southern states are very easy to predict winners and losers in elections. That is because candidates’ ethnic backgrounds play a major role in determining which party will win this or that state. Northern Nigeria states are similar to Southern states except that religion is the single most important factor in determining which party is likely to win a state. In 2015, president Goodluck Jonathan was favored to win states in S/S, S/E and majority of states in the North but lost all the 19 states in the North. President Goodluck Jonathan is a Christian and Muhammad Buhari is a Muslim. So, it can be argued that President Jonathan defeat in all the 19 Northern Nigerian states was because the winner of those Northern states, Mr. Buhari is a Muslim.
Who disagrees?

Donald Duke

Dr Ifeanyi Okowa.

Pro n their ipob propaganda wing don't care about that for now,they only care about demarketing tinubu,when it's 2 weeks to election they will showcase their candidate

Their best bet is atiku

GEJ won Nassarwa, Plateau, Taraba and FCT in 2015.

2023 a Christian candidate will defeat any muslim candidate in the states mentioned above including Benue, Adamawa, Kogi, and all SS/SE states plus greater percentage of SW..