Russian forces overextended, at risk of being ‘picked apart,’ top U.S. analyst warns

The Russian army has “overextended” itself in Ukraine less than a week after invading the country, according to a top U.S. security analyst who says that if Moscow‘s advance continues to stall, its forces are likely to be “picked apart” by Ukrainian fighters.

Russian forces are “in a precarious position if Ukraine becomes a protracted war,” Seth G. Jones, who heads the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said in a series of statements gaining traction Monday on social media.

“Assuming 150,000 Russian soldiers in Ukraine & a population of 44 million, that is a force ratio of 3.4 soldiers per 1,000 people,” Mr. Jones wrote. “You can’t hold territory with those numbers.”

His assessment hung in the backdrop as Russian and Ukrainian officials met for talks Monday, after Moscow ran into unexpectedly stiff resistance when it unleashed the biggest land war in Europe since World War II.

With outgunned Ukrainian forces managing to slow the Russian advance and Western sanctions beginning to squeeze the Russian economy, the Kremlin has set nerves on edge across the world by raising the spectre of nuclear war. Russian President Vladimir Putin issued an order over the weekend putting Russia’s nuclear forces on high alert.

Mr. Jones, meanwhile, tweeted late Sunday that an analysis of past conflicts indicates Russia would need significantly more ground forces to conquer Ukraine — far more than the current 3.4 Russian soldiers per 1,000 Ukrainian citizens.

“The force ratios in successful operations are astronomically higher, such as 89.3 troops per 1,000 inhabitants in Germany (1945), 17.5 in Bosnia (1995), 9.8 in East Timor (2000), and 19.3 in Kosovo (2000),” he wrote. “High numbers of troops and police are critical to establish basic law & order. In fact, the number of Russian soldiers in Ukraine aren’t even enough to hold any major cities for long. They will be in serious danger of being picked apart by Ukrainian insurgents.”

For context, there were roughly 170,000 coalition troops in Iraq during years of insurgency in that country in the 2005-2008 timeframe, with about 150,000 of the troops being U.S. forces. By that math, the ratio was roughly 6.3 U.S. and allied forces per 1,000 Iraqis.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2022/feb/28/russian-forces-overextended-risk-being-picked-apar/

Propagandist and tv warriors..

Useless analysis. He said 3.4soldiers to 1000 people. When did Russia tell you they plan to kill the 44million population? /

Useless analysis. He said 3.4soldiers to 1000 people. When did Russia tell you they plan to kill the 44million population?

Watch as Ukraine is decimated before the end of next month

Let Putin keep wasting their lifes..he will never succeed..
He's only being a bully..a weak dictator who is only good at hitting his bro..now his bro is reacting back he is planning on hurting his whole lineage..ain't that some BS?

Officialgarri:
Useless analysis. He said 3.4soldiers to 1000 people. When did Russia tell you they plan to kill the 44million population?

Watch as Ukraine is decimated before the end of next month

[img]https://c./Z4Y5awHUoyMAAAAC/kitten-genius.gif[/img]

The laughable propaganda continues o. ��

Officialgarri:
Useless analysis. He said 3.4soldiers to 1000 people. When did Russia tell you they plan to kill the 44million population?

Watch as Ukraine is decimated before the end of next month

It's no longer Sunday?
You Putin's puppet are very funny

That Russian forces have failed to capture Kyiv after 3days fighting speaks volumes that Ukraine army have battled Russia to a stand point.
Russian had expected its Military strength would overwhelm and overrun Ukraine within hours.
But that is not to be.
If Ukraine gets little assistance from outside, Russian Army invading Ukraine would be pushed back if not annihilated.

Nobody expected the Ukraine fighters to fight Russian armies this long and still standing up stronger

Kudos to them

Officialgarri:
Useless analysis. He said 3.4soldiers to 1000 people. When did Russia tell you they plan to kill the 44million population? /

Until the whole of ukraine is axed, western media would keep pushing them to their doom.
3 to 1k see vintage analysis.. russia is enjoying peace while ukrainians are suffering and dienng. no western allies are sending its troops to go and die a hero as they made us beleve ukrainians are dieng as heroes..

Okay.

jumper524:
Until the whole of ukraine is axed, western media would keep pushing them to their doom.
3 to 1k see vintage analysis.. russia is enjoying peace while ukrainians are suffering and dienng. no western allies are sending its troops to go and die a hero as they made us beleve ukrainians are dieng as heroes..

We go read am for news

PrinceOfLagos:
Nobody expected the Ukraine fighters to fight Russian armies this long and still standing up stronger

Kudos to them

This Nairaland war analyst dey kill me walai

Nobody expected Ukraine , a Nation of 44million, armed by Nato and supported by the Americans to last 3 days in a conflict with Russia?

I took the Americans almost a month to conquer Iraq supported by no one, but Russia is a failure , because the didn't conquer a Western backed Ukraine in 2 days

i sense the US special force is about to go in, they have hinted us on the next move "pick the Russians apart"

gaby:
Propagandist and tv warriors..

im sure if the ask u to pick the country of ur choice , U wil stil pick usa.

izenco2005:
im sure if the ask u to pick the country of ur choice , U wil stil pick usa.

Yes, I will.

Any more questions or you want to beat me?

hungryboy:
This Nairaland war analyst dey kill me walai

Nobody expected Ukraine , a Nation of 44million, armed by Nato and supported by the Americans to last 3 days in a conflict with Russia?

I took the Americans almost a month to conquer Iraq supported by no one, but Russia is a failure , because the didn't conquer a Western backed Ukraine in 2 days

War is unpredictable. After conquering iraq. America dismissed its 1million soldiers paying them off with 200 dollars only to encounter the same people under disguise of sunni and shia death squads. U need to read the James baker report. He called the dismissal a terrible mistake. U dismissed trained soldiers, snipers, bomb experts, etc. 4000 plus American soldiers paid with their lives. 24000 plus maimed for life. At a point American soldiers were scared of travelling on the road because of ieds. Strangely its was a former iraq soldier trained on handling explosives that set the first ied and trained others in the act.

Officialgarri:
Useless analysis. He said 3.4soldiers to 1000 people. When did Russia tell you they plan to kill the 44million population?

Watch as Ukraine is decimated before the end of next month

Read and comprehend before commenting.

Officialgarri:
Useless analysis. He said 3.4soldiers to 1000 people. When did Russia tell you they plan to kill the 44million population? /

This military equation is above your comprehehsion Sister Putin, Please Chill, the Analyst is accurate.

History555:


[b]War is unpredictable. After conquering iraq. America dismissed its 1million soldiers paying them off with 200 dollars [/b]only to encounter the same people under disguise of sunni and shia death squads. U need to read the James baker report. He called the dismissal a terrible mistake. U dismissed trained soldiers, snipers, bomb experts, etc. 4000 plus American soldiers paid with their lives. 24000 plus maimed for life. At a point American soldiers were scared of travelling on the road because of ieds. Strangely its was a former iraq soldier trained on handling explosives that set the first ied and trained others in the act.

I wanted to go to bed untill I saw the bold, Why are you people lying with your teeth?

American dismissed it 1 million soldiers when and how? You went further to say they pay them off of $200.
Please nny thread you see me, you can lie about what is happening oveR there in Nigeria but please Foreign Affairs, you are better off Being An observer.