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Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory - Foreign Affairs (2) - Nairaland

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Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by sapientia(m): 8:43pm On Apr 09, 2022
plaindealer:
Internal and artificial controls are a temporary fix that they can not sustain, even how long do you keep denying your own people the ability to o what they want with their money.

When you forcefully take away foreign exchange earnings from your manufacturer in favor of the rubble, how then do you expect them to fund imports/raw materials?

Russians today are not n control of their own money because the government is playing hide and seek with the rubble when in fact it doesn't matter how you cut and dice the rubble, the problem is still there and it won't go away, in fact, it's going to get worse.

There's a reason why you are doing these financial acrobatics and manipulations to start with, that reason is about to get worse and more critical, starting next month, China won't accept Russian oil and gas because of the sanctions.

The hundreds of multinationals that left because of the sanctions are definitely not going to be paying taxes, no new investments, no FDI, no disposable FX to fund imports including food and medicine.

The pain is not here yet so it's easy to manipulate and do internal controls to make your money look good, but the money is about to dry up. then what?

Russia is in deep deep trouble, many times more trouble than North Korea..

Manipulating the Rubble is the least of your worres..


IS there a way you can open a thread and repeat this as if you are teaching a 3 year old

If possible, break it into parts especially the one of the control bank taking control of all forex by force and remitting rubles to owners

Just that Putin Fan bots won’t still read it.
Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by sapientia(m): 8:45pm On Apr 09, 2022
baralatie:

Unfortunately Russia was the one that obliterated Berlin in Germany and over threw the Nazi Germans from the least to the highest!

So why did they now have to divide it with USA after the war if they won the war

The war would have been very difficult for Russia without USA weapons

Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by baralatie(m): 8:52pm On Apr 09, 2022
sapientia:


So why did they now have to divide it with USA after the war if they won the war

The war would have been very difficult for Russia without USA weapons
Just like what they did with Africa,Latin America

They just sit down and divide the spoil.

Did you know they British and Germans,dutch wanted to divide china into small states!
These oyibos have been dividing this earth to however they feel deem
cry
Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by joyandfaith: 9:14pm On Apr 09, 2022
baralatie:

Now you are coming round
Now how did the red army matched into berlin and what were those events!
wink
I don't argue blindly like Putin boys.
Do you now know and agree that UK and USA air forces bombed berlin and other German cities while Red Army were fighting in eastern front of war?

Do you know that Red Army were able to hold on Nazi Army through lend-lease agreement with UK and US?
Do you know that allied forces including USSR had divided Germany west-east prior to battle of berlin?
That was basis of east v west Germany till collapse of USSR?
Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by baralatie(m): 9:27pm On Apr 09, 2022
joyandfaith:

I don't argue blindly like Putin boys.
Do you now know and agree that UK and USA air forces bombed berlin and other German cities while Red Army were fighting in eastern front of war?

Do you know that Red Army were able to hold on Nazi Army through lend-lease agreement with UK and US?
Do you know that allied forces including USSR had divided Germany west-east prior to battle of berlin?
That was basis of east v west Germany till collapse of USSR?
I said who matched into berlin ?
You said red army!
Did the red army strolled.into Berlin ?
Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by joyandfaith: 9:32pm On Apr 09, 2022
baralatie:

I said who matched into berlin ?
You said red army!
Did the red army strolled.into Berlin ?


I don't argue blindly like Putin boys.
Do you now know and agree that UK and USA air forces bombed berlin and other German cities while Red Army were fighting in eastern front of war?
Do you know that Red Army were able to hold on Nazi Army through lend-lease agreement with UK and US?
Do you know that allied forces including USSR had divided Germany west-east prior to battle of berlin?
That was basis of east v west Germany till collapse of USSR?
Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by baralatie(m): 9:35pm On Apr 09, 2022
joyandfaith:



I don't argue blindly like Putin boys.
Do you now know and agree that UK and USA air forces bombed berlin and other German cities while Red Army were fighting in eastern front of war?
Do you know that Red Army were able to hold on Nazi Army through lend-lease agreement with UK and US?
Do you know that allied forces including USSR had divided Germany west-east prior to battle of berlin?
That was basis of east v west Germany till collapse of USSR?
Who matched into berlin?
You said the red army?
Did the red army stroll into Berlin?
Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by joyandfaith: 9:40pm On Apr 09, 2022
baralatie:

[s]Who matched into berlin?
You said the red army?
Did the red army stroll into Berlin[/s]?
See my signature
Re: Ruble’s Strength In Face Of Sanctions May Be Illusory by Subsaharan: 10:42pm On Apr 09, 2022
joyandfaith:
Ruble’s Strength in Face of Sanctions May Be Illusory
April 06, 2022 2:02 PM
Rob Garver
After a sharp plunge in value at the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the Russian ruble has recovered much of its value against other world currencies, a change made possible by aggressive capital controls put in place by the government in Moscow and a continual stream of payments for the country’s oil and gas exports.

The ruble’s resilience in the face of sanctions may make it easier, at least temporarily, for the regime of President Vladimir Putin to claim a measure of victory over international efforts to turn his government into a pariah. However, the practical effects of the ruble’s recovery may be limited for ordinary Russians, who remain largely cut off from global markets.

Also, as evidence of Russian troops’ brutal treatment of Ukrainian civilians accumulates, and Western governments take further steps to wean themselves off Russian energy, the Kremlin’s ability to protect its currency may weaken.

“I think the natural next step and a big set of questions is around energy revenues,” Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told VOA.

She added, “As the images of atrocities on the ground continue, the pressure to do more is going to increase.”

Surprising recovery

One week before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, the ruble was worth about 1.3 cents in U.S. currency, meaning that it cost a little over 76 rubles to buy one dollar. By March 7, after governments around the world announced a range of painful sanctions on the Russian economy, the value of the ruble had fallen by nearly half. That day, a ruble was worth 0.7 cent, meaning that it cost almost 143 rubles to buy one dollar.


The expectation among many in the early days of the war was that the ruble’s loss of value was going to be a long-term problem for the Russian economy. Crucially, most of the Russian central bank’s foreign reserves — funds denominated in foreign currencies and held at banks outside Russia — were frozen. This left Moscow without the option of driving up the price of the ruble by buying it on the open market with dollars, euros and other foreign currencies.

In fact, the Russian government and its central bank took several steps that drove up the price of its currency. As of Tuesday, the ruble was worth approximately 1.2 cents, meaning that it now costs about 84 rubles to buy a dollar — a far cry from the 143 rubles required just a month previously.

“The Russian central bank more than doubled domestic interest rates to 20%. And they also put in place capital controls — that is, they limited the ability of Russian individuals to buy foreign exchange,” Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, former deputy director of the research department of the International Monetary Fund, told VOA.

Milesi-Ferretti, now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution’s Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, said another key factor in restoring the ruble’s value has been a new restriction on Russian exporters.

All Russian businesses still able to sell goods internationally are required to take foreign currency earned from those sales and transfer it to the Russian central bank in exchange for rubles.

This creates a steady demand for rubles, keeping the price high, and gives the Russian central bank a new source of foreign currency.

Dubious future

But the price of the Russian ruble in currency markets does not tell the full story of the impact sanctions have had on the Russian economy in general, and on the lives of ordinary Russians in particular.

“Russia's economy, by virtue of the sanctions and the coping mechanisms the central bank has employed, has become much more an internal economy, a smaller economy,” Ziemba, of the Center for a New American Security, told VOA.

“It's important to remember that Russians who used to be able to use their credit cards to purchase goods abroad in the U.S. and Europe, can't,” she said.

This is in part because banking restrictions have made it impossible for most Russian banks to hold correspondent accounts in banks outside the country, which facilitate international payments. Also, inside Russia, major payment systems such as Visa and Mastercard have stopped processing cross-border transactions.

“So, there is difficulty in actually buying goods, both from a financial perspective, but also because a lot of companies have basically said — even if the trade is legal — they don't want to do transactions with Russia,” Ziemba added. “The ability to actually use these assets is significantly limited.”

Energy wild card

One thing that remains uncertain is the extent to which Western governments, particularly in Europe, will be willing to stop purchasing oil and gas from Russia. Currently, Russia is running a large current account surplus, meaning it is exporting far more than it is importing.

In recent days, European leaders have proposed a ban on Russian coal imports and have floated the possibility of sanctions on Russian oil as well. Russian natural gas, which makes up a large percentage of the fuels used across Europe, does not appear to be on the chopping block.

Major action against Russian energy exports could significantly damage the Russian economy, but it is unclear that Western governments are prepared to take that step.

“We’re going to have to see how the war evolves, how expectations evolve,” Milesi-Ferretti said. “Everything is shrouded in uncertainty.”

Source: VOA


The energy beggars would need Cheap Russian gas and oil.

Power corrupts doesn't it? Now their "cancelled" crazed arses are going to buy it in Rubles.

or their citizens would kick them out owing to the rampaging effects of inflation which would erode their purchasing power

Funny this is coming from "VOA news" (America's official state sponsored propaganda machine)

But their so called emotion fuelled economic experts failed to mention this.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/08/business/russia-interest-rates-ruble.html

Russia reducing interest rates. In stark contrast to their inflation ravaged Americun and European peers. Inflation is a b*tch isn't it?

This is Russia Central banker's attempt to rake in the benefits of the appreciating Ruble thereby stimulating economic growth.

Most of western politrickcians are going to get kicked out by their electorate. The price the will have to pay for playing God and war mongering

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