APC Convention: How the delegates would vote

By Yinusa Duba

It is exactly two weeks to the Presidential Primaries of APC, and there are clear indications that bookmakers may be in for a shocker as Asiwaju Bola Tinubu is increasingly facing strong headwinds in his bid to clinch the Party’s presidential ticket. A zone-by-zone analysis of delegates’ preferences, realignments of APC governors, President Buhari’s behind-the-scenes moves, and emerging voting patterns indicate that Vice President Yemi Osinbajo will likely emerge winner at the Convention on June 1. Of the 22 or aspirants, only three – Osinbajo, Tinubu and Amaechi – are the serious contenders. The rest came into the race for many reasons, and so I won’t waste time profiling their chances. In fact, I am sure that these unserious ones will step down before the Convention begins.

South West

In the South West region, Tinubu will take Lagos, his home base, and take a slight lead in Osun. The VP will win Ondo, Oyo, Ekiti and Ogun. The governors of these three states are solidly with the Osinbajo. But Osun is in strong contention by Tinubu and the VP, and so the votes would be almost evenly split between the two.

South South

While Chibuike Amaechi will take his home state of Rivers, Osinbajo will sweep Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Delta and Bayelsa States. In Bayelsa, Timipre Sylva’s firm grip on the delegates is to the VP’s advantage. Sylva will easily align with President Buhari and vote Osinbajo. In Akwa Ibom, the VP is banking on the support of bigwigs like former Deputy Governor Nsima Ekere, Senator Udoma Udo Udoma and Senator Ita Enang, among others. Even Senator Akpabio is likely to support the VP. In neighbouring Cross River State, Gov. Ben Ayade is leading the battalion of supporters rooting for the VP. In Delta, Senator Omo Ovie-Agege is the driving force behind the VP. There would be serious contention for Edo State by both the VP and Tinubu. Although former APC National Chairman Adams Oshiomhole may be rooting for Tinubu in Edo, but the statutory delegates are solidly behind the VP.





South East

The South East delegates are going to the Convention with a sense of grievance. They would have loved to vote for an aspirant from their zone. But in the absence of that, the voting pattern would be disparate. Those from Imo and Ebonyi would be influenced by their governors, while the rest would mostly make their independent decisions. David Umahi and Hope Uzodinma would listen to Buhari’s persuasions and support Osinbajo with their delegates. Delegates from Enugu, Abia and Anambra will support the VP overwhelmingly, but a few would however line up behind Tinubu and Amaechi.

Northern States

I can confirm that the delegates from the three Zones in the North (NE, NC and NW) will vote in the same pattern because most of the 19 Northern States are APC states whose governors will go along with the President; and we all know that President Buhari is not willing to support Tinubu. Buhari is bent on having his VP succeed him. This is an established fact which has rankled the Tinubu team to no end. But it is what it is. No APC governor from the North will antagonize the President. They respect, adore and revere him. Northern governors will support whosoever the President endorses. Although Tinubu will make some good showings in Kano, Zamfara and a few other places, his overall performance in the North will fall behind the VP’s. Amaechi, on the other hand, will give a smattering performance in some places like Katsina.

Overall, the VP will score between 70% and 75% of the total delegate votes at the Convention.

Duba is an Abuja- based political pollster and analyst

Osinbajo remains the best candidate in APC.

Mumu analysis


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Failed reverse phycology campaign strategy

We are solidly behind you Starboy PYO

Housing:
Failed reverse phycology campaign strategy

You know them,. Professor Osinbajo's crew working overtime on people's psychic

Housing:
Failed reverse phycology campaign strategy

I know the truth is a very bitter pill to swallow.

Mooh247:


You know them,. Professor Osinbajo's crew working overtime on people's psychic

Be deceiving yourself as usual Mooh247, I have marked you out for mockery after the convention.

Na Bible carrying people from the Souths turn from APC to rule Nigeria, APC is not an Islamic party, back to back Muslim representation is not accepted.

After which another Muslim will come next.

Buckeyemedia1:
Be deceiving yourself as usual Mooh247, I have marked you out for mockery after the convention.

Na Bible carrying people turn from APC to rule Nigeria, APC is not an Islamic party, back to back Muslim representation is not accepted.

After which another Muslim will come next.

Kikikiki.... 70 year old man will wail on this Nairaland come June 1

My guy you are first on my list after Prince of Abakeleke

Una go hear wen!!!

Mooh247:


Kikikiki.... 70 year old man will wail on this Nairaland come June 1

My guy you are first on my list after Prince of Abakeleke

Una go hear wen!!!

The winning ticket for APC was Buhari/Osinbajo (2015 & 2019) Where was Bola Ahmed Tinubu?

He wants to rip, where others have sown?

Mr Man you better stick with your Pdp, & stop trolling on apc issues that don’t concern you, nonsense Hypocrite.

Buckeyemedia1:
The winning ticket for APC was Buhari/Osinbajo (2015 & 2019) Where was Bola Ahmed Tinubu?

He wants to rip, where others have sown?

Mr Man you better stick with your Pdp, & stop trolling on apc issues that don’t concern you, nonsense Hypocrite.

Funny guy

Stop whining me this evening

Somewhere deep in your heart you know Tinubu is winning the Primaries, you are just in denial



You Know the truth, stop fighting it

Mooh247:


Kikikiki.... 70 year old man will wail on this Nairaland come June 1

My guy you are first on my list after Prince of Abakeleke

Una go hear wen!!!

Na Oluwabash your Kinsman write the article, don’t forget to bookmark his name also.

Mooh247:


Funny guy

Stop whining me this evening

Somewhere deep in your heart you know Tinubu is winning the Primaries, you are just in denial



You Know the truth, stop fighting it

It is because you do not under the history of your country, the Southern President of Nigeria will always be a Christian.

The Christian South & Muslim North was merged together to create the Nigeria of your parents & grand parents.

MKO & SDP tried it, The Military told them that it is not acceptable, the military would rather stay in power, than have a Muslim Muslim arrangement.

Buckeyemedia1:
It is because you do not under the history of your country, the Southern President of Nigeria will always be a Christian.

The Christian South & Muslim North was merged together to create the Nigeria of your parents & grand parents.

MKO & SDP tried it, The Military told them that it is not acceptable.

Abiola is a Muslim he won fair and square

Mooh247:


Abiola is a Muslim he won fair and square

So Why did the Military not hand over power to him?, least you forget Abiola’s VP & fellow Muslim Baba Gana Kingibe, quietly accepted the Minister for Interior to serve Abacha.

Buhari is an Army man, Fela said Na Army Arrangement, they know the implications of trying that nonsense, no political party will field a Muslim Muslim Ticket.

And no Muslim candidate from the South as President, & Christian from the North as Vice President can win any general election in Nigeria.

Jagaban has billions of Naira to waste, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has no chance, the odds are against him.

This is the trash of the century.

My head was even aching at the blatant disinformations.

This people really like lying to themselves.

So Amaechi will only get the votes of delegates from Rivers while other Southsouth states will vote Osinbajo. Chai!

And in the southeast, apart from Ebonyi and Imo, the rest will vote ‘overwhelmingly’ for Osinbajo.

Some people are too stupid to exit with humans abeg.

So this one too is a higher animal?

Buckeyemedia1:
So Why did the Military not hand over power to him?, least you forget Abiola’s VP & fellow Muslim Baba Gana Kingibe, quietly accepted the Minister for Interior to serve Abacha.

Buhari is an Army man, Fela said Na Army Arrangement, they know the implications of trying that nonsense, no political party will field a Muslim Muslim Ticket.

And no Muslim candidate from the South as President, & Christian from the North as Vice President can win any general election in Nigeria.

Bola Ahmed Tinubu has no chance, the odds are against him.

Funny enough you know nothing about odds

As of today all betting companies in Nigeria wage low odds on Tinubu because they know he is the most likely to win after Atiku

Go and check for yourself

With the anger in Northerners right now regarding disrespect of Allah, I don't see them voting a Southern Christian

.

Buckeyemedia1:
So Why did the Military not hand over power to him?, least you forget Abiola’s VP & fellow Muslim Baba Gana Kingibe, quietly accepted the Minister for Interior to serve Abacha.

Buhari is an Army man, Fela said Na Army Arrangement, they know the implications of trying that nonsense, no political party will field a Muslim Muslim Ticket.

And no Muslim candidate from the South as President, & Christian from the North as Vice President can win any general election in Nigeria.

Jagaban has billions of Naira to waste, Bola Ahmed Tinubu has no chance, the odds are against him.

This is the reality they are always scared of accepting.

How can Muslims take what’s meant for the north because there are majority Muslims in the north…

Then a Muslim will also take what’s meant for the south where Christians are majority.

The writer is pro VP. But his take doesn't seem realistic though am not a supporter of APC

Penguin2:
This is the trash of the century.

My head was even aching at the blatant disinformations.

This people really like lying to themselves.

So Amaechi will only get the votes of delegates from Rivers while other Southsouth states will vote Osinbajo. Chai!

And in the southeast, apart from Ebonyi and Imo, the rest will vote ‘overwhelmingly’ for Osinbajo.

Some people are too stupid to exit with humans abeg.

So this one too is a higher animal?

Of course, nobody cares about Rotimi Amaechi in Edo or Delta State, we don’t even know who that Yoruba man is?

No akwa ibom or Cross Rivers state delegate will support him, only some Rivers State’s delegates will support him, Magnus Abe’s camp they have already declared that they are with Jagaban Borgu.

Mooh247:



Funny enough you know nothing about odds

As of today all betting companies in Nigeria wage low odds on Tinubu because they know he is the most likely to win after Atiku

Go and check for yourself

With the anger in Northerners right now regarding disrespect of Allah, I don't see them voting a Southern Christian

.

And only northern votes can make someone president then why did Buhari not win in 3 tries?

Una dey funny person aswear

Penguin2:


And only northern votes can make someone president then why did Buhari not win in 3 tries?

Una dey funny person aswear

North plus South West = Presidency

Buckeyemedia1:
Of course, nobody cares about Rotimi Amaechi in Edo or Delta State, we don’t even know who that Yoruba man is?

No akwa ibom or Cross Rivers state delegate will support him, only some Rivers State’s delegates will support him, Magnus Abe’s camp they have already declared that they are with Jagaban Borgu.

Really?

So they will vote Osinbajo, right?

Penguin2:


Really?

So they will vote Osinbajo, right?

A vote against Osinbajo, is a vote against President Buhari’s government.

Amaechi is a joker, South South just got out of power in 2015, actually these South South Selfish pretenders are the real ones, diminishing any hopes of the South East.

Mooh247:


North plus South West = Presidency

Lol!

Because of fictitious 1.9 million votes from Kano which they killed the Resident Electoral Commissioner to cover up?

Or because of propaganda and the human orchestrated insecurity in the north that made North Central to vote Buhari in 2015?

Kwankwaso is a presidential candidate of NNPP, let’s see where you will manufacture votes from in the north.

Fulani herdsmen have been slaughtering North Central people, let’s see how they will vote APC again.

Buckeyemedia1:
A vote against Osinbajo, is a vote against President Buhari’s government.

Amaechi is a joker, South South just got out of power in 2015, actually these South South Selfish pretenders are the real ones, diminishing any hopes of the South Eat.

I laugh.

So Osinbajo is Buhari’s anointed candidate now, abi?

Penguin2:


I laugh.

So Osinbajo is Buhari’s anointed candidate now abi?

Always been.

Matter of weeks before everybody eyes go clear

Abeg I go teach me how to create new thread it not going here

Penguin2:


Lol!

Because of fictitious 1.9 million votes from Kano which they killed the Resident Electoral Commissioner to cover up?

Or because of propaganda and the human orchestrated insecurity in the north that made North Central to vote Buhari in 2015?

Kwankwaso is a presidential candidate of NNPP, let’s see where you will manufacture votes from in the north.

Fulani herdsmen have been slaughtering North Central people, let’s see how they will vote APC again.

I laugh in bullion van

When money politics start, even Ohaneze would vote for Tinubu

Mooh247:



I laugh in bullion van

When money politics start, even Ohaneze would vote for Tinubu

No billionaire has ever ruled Nigeria.

Those who think they have enough money to throw around have always failed and so would Tinubu.

Ameachi will shock you all...