What The West (Still) Gets Wrong About Putin (June 1st)

By Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/06/01/putin-war-ukraine-west-misconceptions/

One of the reasons it’s so difficult to understand Russian intentions—and what is at stake in the Ukraine war—is the significant divergence between how external observers see events and how they are viewed from the Kremlin. Things that appear obvious to some, such as Russia’s incapacity to achieve a military victory, are perceived completely differently in Moscow. The fact is that most of today’s discussions over how to help Ukraine win on the battlefield, coerce Kyiv into concessions, or allow Russian President Vladimir Putin to save face have little in common with reality.


Here I will debunk five common assumptions about how Putin sees this war. The West needs to look at the situation differently if it wants to be more effective in its approach and decrease the risks of escalation.

Assumption 1: Putin knows he is losing.


*This stems from the mistaken idea that Russia’s main goal is to seize control of large parts of Ukraine—and therefore, when the Russian military performs badly, fails to advance, or even retreats, that this amounts to failure. However, Putin’s main goals in this war have never been to acquire pieces of territory; rather, he wants to destroy Ukraine in what he calls an “anti-Russia” project and stop the West from using Ukrainian territory as a bridgehead for anti-Russian geopolitical activities. As a result, Russia does not see itself as failing. Ukraine will not join NATO nor be able to exist peacefully without considering Russian demands on Russification (or “denazification” in Russian propaganda-speak) and “de-NATOfication” (known as “demilitarization” in Russian propaganda terms)—meaning a halt to any military cooperation with NATO. To follow through on these goals, Russia needs to sustain its military presence on Ukrainian territory and keep attacking Ukrainian infrastructure. There is no need for major territorial gains nor taking Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital (even if he dreamt about it in the beginning). Even the annexation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which Moscow sees as only a matter of time, is an auxiliary, local goal to make Ukraine pay for incorrect, pro-Western geopolitical choices over the last two decades. In Putin’s eyes, he is not losing this war. In fact, he likely believes he is winning—and he is happy to wait until Ukraine concedes that Russia is here forever.*


Assumption 2: The West should find a way to help Putin save face, thus decreasing the risks of further, possibly nuclear, escalation.

Imagine a situation where Ukraine accepts most of Russia’s demands: It recognizes Crimea as Russian and the Donbas as independent, commits to a slimmed-down army, and promises to never join NATO. Will that end the conflict? Even if, to many, the answer appears to be an obvious “yes,” they are incorrect. Russia may be locked in a battle with Ukraine, but geopolitically, it sees itself as waging war against the West on Ukrainian territory. In the Kremlin, Ukraine is seen as an anti-Russian weapon in Western hands—and destroying it will not automatically lead to Russia’s victory in this anti-Western geopolitical game. For Putin, this war is not between Russia and Ukraine—and Ukrainian leadership is not an independent actor but a Western tool that must be neutralized.

So, whatever concessions Ukraine could make (regardless of how politically realistic they may be), Putin will continue escalating the war until the West changes its approach to the so-called Russian problem and admits that—as Putin sees it—the roots of Russian aggression are the result of Washington ignoring Russian geopolitical concerns for 30 years. This has been Putin’s real objective for a long time, and it remains unchanged. Unrealistic Russian demands rejected by Kyiv are even a way for the Kremlin to increase the stakes in a Russia-West confrontation, testing the West’s ability to stay united and consistent. The West today is looking at the problem in the wrong light: In seeking to stop Russia’s war, it focuses on Moscow’s artificial pretexts for its invasion of Ukraine and overlooks Putin’s obsession with the so-called Western threat as well as his readiness to use escalation to coerce the West into a dialogue on Russian terms. Ukraine is only a hostage.




Assumption 3: Putin is not only losing militarily but also domestically, and the political situation in Russia is such that Putin could soon face a coup.


The opposite is the case, at least for the moment. The Russian elite have become so worried about how to guarantee political stability and avoid protests that they have consolidated around Putin as the only leader able to firm up the political system and prevent disorder. The elite are politically impotent, scared, and vulnerable—including those portrayed in Western media as warmongers and hawks. To make a move against Putin today is tantamount to suicide unless Putin starts to lose his ability to rule (physically or mentally). Despite new splits and cracks within the ranks and unhappiness with Putin’s policies, the regime stands firm. The main threat to Putin is Putin himself. Although time may be against him, the waking up of the elite is a process that will take much longer than many people expect. It will depend on how present Putin remains in day-to-day government.


Assumption 4: Putin is afraid of anti-war protests.


The truth is that Putin is more afraid of pro-war protests and has to take into account the eagerness of many Russians to see the destruction of what they call Ukrainian Nazis. Public mood could drive escalation, prompting Putin to be more hawkish and resolute, even if it is a result of the Kremlin’s own propaganda. This is extremely important: Putin has awakened a dark nationalism he is more and more dependent on. Whatever happens to Putin, the world will have to deal with this public aggression and anti-West, anti-liberal convictions that make Russia problematic for the West.


Assumption 5: Putin has been deeply disappointed in his entourage and greenlit the criminal prosecution of senior officials.


This is an intensely discussed issue in the West. It arises from speculation about the arrest of Putin’s former Deputy chief of staff Vladislav Surkov; the detention of Sergey Beseda, a top security officer responsible for Ukraine; and purges among Putin’s inner circle. All these rumors should be viewed with extreme skepticism. Firstly, there has been no confirmation of any of them. (Rather, high-placed sources suggest that neither Beseda nor Surkov have been arrested.) Secondly, Putin is likely upset and disappointed with his staff, but it’s not his style to purge his inner circle unless serious crimes have been committed. Intentions are all that matter to Putin, and if Russia’s secret services miscalculated or even misinformed him without malign intentions, there will be no prosecutions. Finally, the military campaign in Ukraine has been closely managed by Putin from the outset with very little room for subordinates to show any initiative.


All this means that the Western dilemma—to double down on support for Ukraine because Putin is losing or to appease Putin because he is desperate and dangerous—is fundamentally misguided. There can be only two possible outcomes. Either the West changes its approach to Russia and begins to take seriously the Russian concerns that led to this war or Putin’s regime falls apart and Russia revises its geopolitical ambitions.


For the moment, both Russia and the West appear to believe that their counterpart is doomed and that time is on their side. Putin dreams about the West suffering from political upheaval, whereas the West dreams about Putin being removed, overthrown, or dropping dead from one of many diseases he is regularly rumored to be suffering. No one is right. At the end of the day, a deal between Russia and Ukraine is only possible as an extension of an agreement between Russia and the West or as a result of the collapse of Putin’s regime. And that gives you an idea of how long the war could last: years, at best.

I don't exactly agree with ALL her points, but a good read nonetheless... No doubt

Cc; Drenimarcus Uprightness100 Svlla basilico Seun Mynd44 Lalasticlacla Alamkir

This war has so far achieved the opposite of what he wants


It has become a serious entanglement for him, I don't pity him because he orchestrated everything to boost his useless ego.

Meanwhile you guys should stop quoting me

God1000:
This war has so far achieved the opposite of what he wants

With the way you commented so fast I doubt if you even read more than 3 lines. Where was it stated in the article that he has achieved exactly what he hoped to at the start of the invasion?

Hmmm...true talk.

God1000:
This war has so far achieved the opposite of what he wants

What are you talking about unless you are talking about Finland and Sweden membership to NATO.

Ukraine have lost 20% of its land which the size of England and Wales combined and Ukraine can’t even use the port for now that even UN have to beg Russia to allow Ukraine to export.
If the war have achieved opposites then why are EU leaders France and Germany calling Russia leaders phones not the other way around.
Why are USA defence ministries calling Russia phone numbers.

Even Sky and many UK news, are now talking about negotiating with Russia to end the war as Ukraine troops are losing since Russia have now change the war of the game

Oil is over $110 per barrel, this war have opened many countries eyes.
The Gulf nations don’t join sanctions, because they are happily making billions of dollars right now.
Russia foreign minister was invited by Gulf nations.

Japan that initially sanctioned Russia by banned all Russians citizens just reversed it yesterday and also refused to pulled of Russia gas deal.

Russia owned MIR card is now be accepted in Turkey the first ever.

My own is when will Africa leaders wake up? When?
We have all the stuff to make our continent great.
This war shows that made your own stuff and never ever put your truth in other people stuff

Lmao, what is she smoking? Russia has gained tremendously with this SMO. I speak to Russians daily. It was at first difficult as they had to navigate through the sanctions imposed on them, but Russia was prepared! Things has stabilized in Russia, in fact most of Russians who left are now returning. It is why Putin stated that the government should start paying large families who have 2-4 kids.

The Victory Day alone should be an eye opener for anyone who has God-given sense to know that Russia will never capitulate. SMO is going nicely, Only 2 cities left for the fall of Donbas with one 80% captured.
The EU is at odds with the U.S., Britain and its neighbors. The countries cannot agree on the extent of the threat posed by Russia and Ukraine's chances of winning. It is the West capitulating because they never expected Russia to withstand all the sanctions imposed on it. Russia has 10k plus sanctions imposed and is still standing. That tells it all.

I have said it before the start of this SMO and saying it again. The world will split into 2 parts: small countries will run to China and Russia for economic and military support. It is already happening. Multi-polar world is here!!!

Maa go listen to Viktor Tsoi.

They had better go on their knees and beg Mother Russia to send grain and unblock ports or well hunger will kill the west

Drenimarcus:
Lmao, what is she smoking? Russia has gained tremendously with this SMO. I speak to Russians daily. It was at first difficult as they had to navigate through the sanctions imposed on them, but Russia was prepared! Things has stabilized in Russia, in fact most of Russians who left are now returning. It is why Putin stated that the government should start paying large families who have 2-4 kids.

The Victory Day alone should be an eye opener for anyone who has God-given sense to know that Russia will never capitulate. SMO is going nicely, Only 2 cities left for the fall of Donbas with one 80% captured.
The EU is at odds with the U.S., Britain and its neighbors. The countries cannot agree on the extent of the threat posed by Russia and Ukraine's chances of winning. It is the West capitulating because they never expected Russia to withstand all the sanctions imposed on it. Russia has 10k plus sanctions imposed and is still standing. That tells it all.

I have said it before the start of this SMO and saying it again. The world will split into 2 parts: small countries will run to China and Russia for economic and military support. It is already happening.

They had better go on their knees and beg Mother Russia to send grain and unblock ports or well hunger will kill the west

I cannot even stay one minute on reddit anymore. Because most of the subs I'm on, whenever the Russia's advances in ukraine are being brought up, they say it's just small advances in eastern Europe (on small villages and towns). Meanwhile, read this article. It revealed through a detailed map the size of area russia has currently taken from Ukraine. I mean land masses bigger than the size of the UK and Italy.

I saw a page on this frontpage citing some illterates saying the EU banned 90% of oil they receive from Russia, and that the ban would hurt putin more than those who imposed it. (I'll link that thread later).
The Russian govt has said redirecting their oil, if banned by any customer, to others and finding other customers wouldn't be difficult. But that isn't even the point in trying to make.
The point is, what western media's peddled for gullible people to believe is the exact opposite of actual reality. The EU said they would be banning Russian Imports of oil through LNG and tankers , not pipelines. Meanwhile please take a look at the picture I attached. Apparently 2/3 of EU import of Russian Oil is through pipelines. This is obvious to everyone. Well how is that, they are reporting that 90% of Russian Oil Imports have been banned, when they clearly didn't even ban pipeline which is the medium which they use to receive more than 80% of the said oil?
To me, this exposes that they just give out inaccurate publishments of their actions against Russia, probably to save face.

Meanwhile, back to the topic I made, I don't exactly agree with all the points this woman made. But as a western scholar who is obviously a pro western, she went as far as to debunk the ongoing trend in the west is that Russia or rather, Putin as she puts it, has failed woefully when in reality, in the Kremlin they could be seeing the operation as an ongoing success since Ukraine is being rendered useless ATM

MangekyoAlt:


I cannot even stay one minute on reddit anymore. Because most of the subs I'm on, whenever the Russia's advances in ukraine are being brought up, they say it's just small advances in eastern Europe (on small villages and towns). Meanwhile, read this article. It revealed through a detailed map the size of area russia has currently taken from Ukraine. I mean land masses bigger than the size of the UK and Italy.

I saw a page on this frontpage citing some illterates saying the EU banned 90% of oil they receive from Russia, and that the ban would hurt putin more than those who imposed it. (I'll link that thread later).
The Russian govt has said redirecting their oil, if banned by any customer, to others and finding other customers wouldn't be difficult. But that isn't even the point in trying to make.
The point is, what western media's peddled for gullible people to believe is the exact opposite of actual reality. The EU said they would be banning Russian Imports of oil through LNG and tankers , not pipelines. Meanwhile please take a look at the picture I attached. Apparently 2/3 of EU import of Russian Oil is through pipelines. This is obvious to everyone. Well how is that, they are reporting that 90% of Russian Oil Imports have been banned, when they clearly didn't even ban pipeline which is the medium which they use to receive more than 80% of the said oil?
To me, this exposes that they just give out inaccurate publishments of their actions against Russia, probably to save face.

Meanwhile, back to the topic I made, I don't exactly agree with all the points this woman made. But as a western scholar who is obviously a pro western, she went as far as to debunk the ongoing trend in the west is that Russia or rather, Putin as she puts it, has failed woefully when in reality, in the Kremlin they could be seeing the operation as an ongoing success since Ukraine is being rendered useless ATM

Reddit, Twitter and Quora are all liberal apps. I am very active on Reddit but i dont go to read the news and it is pointless arguing with ignorant folks who will never yield to reasoning.
They know Donbas is about to fall, hence you can see the MSM slowly changing their tune. Their sanctions are worthless because it holds no water, Russia is chesting them all. All their theatrics is just for show. They are trying so hard to show they are in control.

They know this is killing their economies but they dont care. Russia is winning and they know it. Best they can do is to put boots on ground and we all know that aint gonna happen.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/02/russia-economic-war-ukraine-food-fuel-price-vladimir-putin?CMP=share_btn_tw


Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops | Larry Elliott

Most of her point we already know, but we will continue to school this children on NL who can't put the pieces together ....... Either way u calculate this war Russia is winning from all angle. Economically, proxicaly, militarily. Ukraine lost long time ago, even if the war stops now it will take them decades to recover.

Interview were done many Russian were asked how they see nato expansion towards Russia and all of them said they don't like it.

This shows they want and love what putin is doing in Ukraine.

Security of your nation is greater than any thing you can imagine.

So Russia is on the right track of history.

Zelensky admits Russia now holds one-fifth of Ukraine, the largest country entirely within Europe. What he didn't acknowledge is that Russia controls Ukraine's industrial heartland, 90% of its energy resources (including all of offshore oil), and its critical ports and shipping.

And mind you the Russian army is advancing and taking territory without gas, tanks, planes, ships, generals, soldiers nor a president (died of cancer).

If you know you know, make nobody ask me why.

Loooool!! Truth is I didn’t waste my time to read what she wrote, the sub-headings alone shows she is blinded by her western obligation!! Only a liberated mind would see the truth!!

Donbas is falling already but the west is saying a different thing!! It’s well

What a lot of these peeps failed to understand is that, Russians are different type of breed when it comes to war/battle. Once they set their goals, their spirit can not be broken.

OhMyG0d:
What a lot of these peeps failed to understand is that, Russians are different type of breed when it comes to war/battle. Once they set their goals, their spirit can not be broken.

exactly.