Ukraine’s high casualty rate could bring war to tipping point

Analysis: Kyiv’s fighting strength is stretched, yet Russia could now benefit from a pause in fighting

Casualty means the number of dead and injured soldiers. Specifically, soldiers that have been taken out of battle and cannot fight anymore.

Any way you count it, the figures are stark: Ukrainian casualties are running at a rate of somewhere between 600 and 1,000 a day. One presidential adviser, Oleksiy Arestovych, told the Guardian this week it was 150 killed and 800 wounded daily; another, Mykhaylo Podolyak, told the BBC that 100 to 200 Ukrainian troops a day were being killed.

It represents an extraordinary loss of human life and capacity for the defenders, embroiled in a defence of the eastern city of Sievierodonetsk that this week turned into a losing battle. Yet the city was also arguably a place that Ukraine could have retreated from to the more defensible Lysychansk, across the Siverski Donets River, the sort of defensive situation that Ukraine has fared far better in.

The sheer number – more than 20,000 casualties a month – raises questions about what state Ukraine’s army will be in if the war drags on into the autumn. The same is true for the Russians too, of course. But the invaders already control large chunks of Ukraine, and they can pause the fighting with the territorial upper hand.

Consider the figures in context. Ukraine’s army was 125,000 strong, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and there were 102,000 national and border guards in addition. Analysts’ crude estimates suggest that since the start of the war the total could have doubled to an impressive 500,000.

Kyiv’s forces are far from a point of collapse. But several months of high casualties will erode its fighting strength significantly, even allowing for some of the wounded to recover. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s forces are already being pushed back in a Donbas artillery bombardment so intense it is likely to have a shell-shock impact on many of those who survive it. Morale is certainly an issue for the Russians, but there are now reports of desertions from the Ukrainian side too.

So pressing is the situation that foreigners with combat experience who pass the tests to join the international legion could be on the frontline in less than a month after crossing the Ukrainian border. But again, the high level of casualties now being openly discussed may act as a deterrent to recruits in the future.

Western officials prefer not to discuss the impact of the war on the defenders, instead highlighting the problems for the Russians in their briefings. This week, one of those officials said their estimate was that the invaders had lost “15,000 to 20,000 dead”, out of an invasion force that was 150,000 or more. Yet despite this, Moscow’s army has still not lost its offensive capability.

But they chose not to provide similar estimates for Ukraine, which can create a lopsided impression that the Russians are faring worse. In fact, with an artillery overmatch of 10 or 15 to one, according to the Ukrainians, it may well be that the invaders’ casualty rate is far lower at the moment, because they are able to deal death from a greater distance to defenders who cannot see them.

Ammunition is certainly running short on the Ukrainian side, again by their own admission. Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, has said Ukraine is using 5,000 to 6,000 artillery rounds a day, and has “almost used up” its stockpile of Soviet 152mm standard shells. It is now relying on Nato-standard 155mm howitzers; it is unclear how many of these it has.

Commanders have told the Guardian that Ukraine struggles for some basic equipment such as encrypted radios (where mobile phones work, it is not uncommon to rely on the secure Signal app instead) or advanced sights and optics of the types commonly used by western militaries.

Ukraine is not short on bravery and determination. Western support is still in place, as shown by the UK announcement to supply a handful of – perhaps three – multiple rocket launchers this week, even if Kyiv said almost immediately it wanted many times more. But it is Russia’s forces that have found a way to advance in the Donbas, raising the question of whether the three-month war is at another turning point.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/10/ukraine-casualty-rate-russia-war-tipping-point

Who we go believe now.
Zelensky say na just 100…
This people are human being you and I ooo…
And we assume their lives doesn’t matter…
If na Putin and Zelensky Family member only dey fight the war… this war for don end since.
Well… glory to Russia…
I sympathize with Ukrainian,this their president no just get sense….
Either now or later,the only option you have is bending to Russia’s demand…
Now it’s clear the whole western country together can’t save you from Russia because they can’t save themselves either..

pol23:
Who we go believe now.
Zelensky say na just 100…
This people are human being you and I ooo…
And we assume their lives doesn’t matter…
If na Putin and Zelensky Family member only dey fight the war… this war for don end since.
Well… glory to Russia…
I sympathize with Ukrainian,this their president no just get sense….
Either now or later,the only option you have is bending to Russia’s demand…
Now it’s clear the whole western country together can’t save you from Russia because they can’t save themselves either..

I remember telling people to multiply Zelensky's figure by 8 - 11 back then to get the real answer. The day (or two) before Zelensky made the statement about 100 Ukrainian soldiers dying a day, it was revealed that a Russian airstrike at a Ukrainian military facility (in Kyiv or western Ukraine) actually killed 87 and not the 8 Zelesky claimed. Zelensky has to reduce his numbers for morale purposes but that only works if he was winning.

What's the point , why not just cease fire and stop the war ?

Rajahbite:
What's the point , why not just cease fire and stop the war ?

Remembered when MSM, EU and UK were showing Russia tanks and troops get hit within the first 4 weeks and they thought Ukraine was going to win as Turkey supplied Drones were been used.
Reason then was Russia commanders in charged does not have any experience of War meaning they were just rushing which leads to death of many Russia troops as the logistics became problem for Russia troops then Russia changed the commander in charged of Ukraine operation and brought those with Syria war experiences.

Everything changed from there on as Russia saw they can not take over Kyiv because it is not pro Russia city like the Eastern part of Ukraine.
You need to see MSM news, EU and UK before May and now, they are already reporting that Ukraine needs to negotiate with Russia now before it’s too late as it looks like Russia is ready for long war.

The new commanders introduces operation hit them from away with drones, artillery, Missiles then move in slowly and steady like how they did it in Syria war meaning Ukraine have no chance in heaven or hell

The more the war goes on the more money Russia is making and more territories, they are taking from Ukraine.

Some NATO members, USA and France except UK have said Ukraine need to start negotiating with Russia.
If Ukraine don’t negotiate now and Russia start offensive on Odessa then it’s over for Ukraine

FP @seun and Mod because if this new is about Russia losing that numbers, you people will push it immediately to FP

With all this gross death rate; who are the people still f4hting in UKRAINE ? I GUESS THE RUSSIANS ARE FIGHTING FOR UKRAINE AGAINST THESELVES.

PUTARDS ARE WE BELIEVING THE BRITISH A NEWS FROM BRITAIN ? DOES THIS SHOW HOW MENTALLY ILL PUTARDS ARE ?

Shoodboi:
Seun lalasticlala Mynd44

Could you help us get this to the front page so other Nairalanders can see it and call for an end to the war?

seun na western slave he won't push anything to front page

Olatunji1929:
seun na western slave he won't push anything to front page

Lol no let him hear o unless he'll ban you on the behest of his Western bosses

Rajahbite:
What's the point , why not just cease fire and stop the war ?

Pride how can almighty USA accept defeat after losing to Afghanistan that the problem.

But with time every one will know nato and USA is shit.

seunny4lif:

Remembered when MSM, EU and UK were showing Russia tanks and troops get hit within the first 4 weeks and they thought Ukraine was going to win as Turkey supplied Drones were been used.
Reason then was Russia commanders in charged does not have any experience of War meaning they were just rushing which leads to death of many Russia troops as the logistics became problem for Russia troops then Russia changed the commander in charged of Ukraine operation and brought those with Syria war experiences.

Everything changed from there on as Russia saw they can not take over Kyiv because it is not pro Russia city like the Eastern part of Ukraine.
You need to see MSM news, EU and UK before May and now, they are already reporting that Ukraine needs to negotiate with Russia now before it’s too late as it looks like Russia is ready for long war.

The new commanders introduces operation hit them from away with drones, artillery, Missiles then move in slowly and steady like how they did it in Syria war meaning Ukraine have no chance in heaven or hell

The more the war goes on the more money Russia is making and more territories, they are taking from Ukraine.

Some NATO members, USA and France except UK have said Ukraine need to start negotiating with Russia.
If Ukraine don’t negotiate now and Russia start offensive on Odessa then it’s over for Ukraine

Nope you don't know military strategy

Kyiv attack was a distraction

people think that the sole purpose of Russia was to capture Kyiv. No. They (Russia) drew all military assets of Ukraine to defend Kyiv leaving the east open. Eastern Ukraine was and is the operation theater of the Russians.

Even CNN military strategy analyst corfirmed it and ex USA general said they have learnt many things from the strategy.

Why Ukraine never even touch Russian soil and dey say Ukraine dey win..

Those countries sending weapon to Ukraine are not helping Ukraine but they are contributing in Ukraine's destruction because the more they send arms the more they oblige Russia to use sophisticated and destructive weapons.