BusinessDay’s analysis of Google trends data on search interest show that the three major presidential candidates for the 2023 election have yet to expand beyond their strongholds.

The data were collated from August 28 to September 4, 2022.

Google trend is an essential tool in predicting the outcomes of elections.

In the recent Kenyan presidential election, the average share of search interest for the winner (William Ruto) was 1,329 as against 324 for Raila Odinga, the runner-up.

Similarly, data gleaned from Google trends show that the winner of the Osun State election, Ademola Adeleke, had a far higher average share of search interest than the runner-up, Adeboyega Oyetola.

According to BusinessDay’s analysis of the data, Atiku Abubakar, the flag-bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party, remains a dominant figure in the North, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress holds sway in the South-West, and Peter Obi of Labour Party is prominent in the South-East and the South-South.

Atiku, Obi, Tinubu yet to break out of strongholds

Tinubu got an average of 20 percent of the search interest across all regions.

On a regional basis, Atiku dominated the North-West and North-East; Obi, the South-South and South-East; and Tinubu, the South-West and North-Central.

Obi’s influence is not as vibrant in the North as it is in the South-East. The average search interest in Obi is highest in Plateau, Nasarawa, and Benue.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People Party, is struggling to gain influence across all regions. His influence, according to average search interest, is highest in the region where he was once governor: North-West.

Google trend analysis by voting blocs: Northern Alliance, Bible Belt, and the Rockies

The Northern Alliance has the country’s most active voters and comprises 11 northern states (Gombe, Sokoto, Jigawa, Zamfara, Kano, Kebbi, Bauchi, Katsina, Yobe, Borno) and one south-western state (Osun). Their loyalty has been to the PDP.

These states have been dominated by the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku, although the presidential candidate of the APC, Tinubu, gained ground in Osun.

Search intrest for Kwankwaso

The Bible Belt, another PDP loyalist bloc, which has the highest number of voters but low voter turnout is made up of 17 states drawn from the South-East, South-South, and eastern North-Central.

Analysis by BusinessDay shows that this loyalty is wavering as the Labour Party presidential candidate, Obi, is dominating across all states in the South-South and South-Eastern region while the North-Central is being controlled by Tinubu.

The Rockies are Nigeria’s most unpredictable voters and the tie-breakers, with the lowest voter turnout of the three blocs. These states include Kaduna, Niger, Kogi, Lagos, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo, Kwara, and Ekiti, which have been dominated by Tinubu, except Kaduna and Niger, which have been held down by Atiku

https://businessday.ng/lead-story/article/atiku-obi-tinubu-yet-to-break-out-of-strongholds/

Even south east is no longer a strong hold for obi...

see what is going on against his party..

The latest raged in fierceness done against his party means that south east is no longer tenable but hostile to him....


Even Ss is not yet sure for him..

Cool

But but I don't need the champions league to win this year balloon do or.

Useless analysis

Who dey allocate such percentage to Tinubu like ewedu ?

If Obi is running neck and neck with the criminals despite all the odds,then forget it, Obi is winning this by wide margin.

The next 6 months would be frenetic as millions more are joining Obi-dients.

Tinubu does not have 30% in North East neither does he have 23% in South East or 29% in south south talkless of 34% in North Central. The only state Tinubu stands a chance of winning in the north is Borno and even at that it will be a small margin.

This election is between Atiku and Obi.

Tinubu and Kwankwaso are spoilers.

Mynd44, Nlfpmod

Unlike the corrupt retired drug dealer,
campaigning for Peter Obi is so easy because there's no need of cooking stories, editing profiles, searching for school records, going to check if the date of birth tallies, or even changing figures.
Peter Obi says one thing and it's consistent with what he says hence the massive followership.
Indeed a golden fish has no hiding place.
A WORD IS ENOUGH FOR THE WISE.

aninibinladen:
Tinubu does not have 30% in North East neither does he have 23% in South East or 29% in south south talkless of 34% in North Central, the author (Olukayode Joshua Lasisi) is simply day dreaming.

redPUSSY:
Useless analysis

Because Obi didn't win?

Fair enough! But the percentage given to Peter on North Central is poor. Watch out for these states for Peter Obi, FCT, plateau, Benue and Nassarawa.
God bless Peter Obi
God bless OBIdient people

Mehn Obi is something else o... This man is using labour party to give big parties tough time... I see a runoff election

Is it not now obvious that APC is coming in third? They've been landlocked in the SW.

The ObiDatti votes in the SS/SE will over run them in the SW.

PDP has a good edge cos NW has the highest voting numbers but if LP moves in well into the NC they can counter that and win!

Well it's simple, lets conduct a simple poll.

Like for Peter Obi
Share for Tinubu
Quote for Atiku

Google trends is a powerful analytic tool.

The thing is would the election be free and fair?

Peter Obi is the only legitimate contestant among them. It will be sacriligeous for a Yoruba or Fulani man to rule Nigeria after Buhari.

Tinubu has no business contesting for president other than his false claim that it is the turn of the Yoruba to rule Nigeria and in Yoruba land it is his turn. Only a mentally inept person would support a man that public made such claims.

Meanwhile, my reaction when I hear someone say it is the turn of the Yoruba to rule Nigeria.

Like for Obi

Share for Tinubu

Quote for Atiku

Make we see

donaldking100:
Unlike the corrupt retired drug dealer,
campaigning for Peter Obi is so easy because there's no need of cooking stories, editing profiles, searching for school records, going to check if the date of birth tallies, or even changing figures.
Peter Obi says one thing and it's consistent with what he says hence the massive followership.
Indeed a golden fish has no hiding place.
A WORD IS ENOUGH FOR THE WISE.

A-Z
I c y

Some one left 9 billion and call it75 billion

Truth be told, Igbo's have a rare political genius in Peter OBI.
Little known labour party of yesterday is now dragging position with the ruling party and decades old PDP.
Exactly what he did in Anambra state with APGA

Hello

Wait for election day and see Tinubu's magic wand at play.

This report is not entirely correct, Tinubu can not be said to be controlling the north central.
Fine, they are lead by mostly APC Governors, but the Muslim Muslim ticket automatically swingled most voters to PDP and Labour party.

Labour party should work more on North Central, as they will likely decide the winner of the election

oyin44:
Even south east is no longer a strong hold for obi...see what is going on against his party..

They raged in fierceness against his party so south east is no longer tenable but hostile to him....


Even Ss is not yet sure for him..

Make sure you don't die before February 2023

I don't do permutations and aba statistics

aninibinladen:
Tinubu does not have 30% in North East neither does he have 23% in South East or 29% in south south talkless of 34% in North Central. The only state Tinubu stands a chance of winning in the north is Borno and even at that it will be a small margin.

If you concerntrate on your life, you will be able to afford two square meals

It's only Peter obi that we want