NotBeenPaid:

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A myth. It's what you've been made to believe. The people are the structure.

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N3TRAL:


Are the party agents and their immediate family members I mentioned above robots, goats or birds?

N3TRAL:


Are the party agents and their immediate family members I mentioned above robots, goats or birds?

N3TRAL:
Are APC and PDP structures in Nigeria a myth or reality?

There are 176846 (One Hundred Seventy Six Thousand Eight Hundred and Forty Six ) polling units across Nigeria.

As it stands today, APC and PDP have at least one agent in each of the polling units.

If that agent brings just "5" (five ) people who may be his friends, community neighbour, or family member, it would be 6 people to vote for either APC or PDP in those places.

176846 * 6 = 1,061,076

As it stands today, if INEC announces this evening that there will be Presidential Election across Nigeria by 8AM tomorrow morning, APC and PDP are sure of at least 1 million votes each without campaign, preparation or even buying votes.

That is what party structure means.


This is not a permutation. It is a straightforward analysis. Counter it with superior arguments.

Mikeloo:


I think your analysis is based on a two-horse race election. But as it seems we may have a four-horse race presidential election next year and the language from everyone is to defend your vote i.e. vote and stay for the count. Social media has help a lot to reduce any mago mago from the election officials

I believe when the campaign start proper and any party that can maintain the momentum till 25th February, 2023 for campaign and sensitization as well as good policy will naturally build a structure without any agent.

As it stands, we have over 96m registered voters. If half of these come out to vote with an average of 200 voters per PU, any party that garners one-third vote from each PU with or without agent is sure to go for runoff election or win out rightly.

Next year Presidential election likely to be a replica of 1979 election

N3TRAL:


You're missing the point. The post does not talk about new voters or even ordinary voters. It talks about APC and PDP card carrying members and their immediate family or friends.

Mikeloo:


I understand your analysis which is simple and straightforward. But it is not a sure-bet that APC or PDP will have over a million votes from the agents. Do you think all card carrying members including agents will actually be loyal on that election day? I would expect you build an assumption like half of the agent are able to do their work well to get voters on their side

N3TRAL:


Who is more likely to be loyal on election day ?

A Card carrying member who worked for the Party for 10 years, invested everything in the party? Stepped down on one instance for an older member to be awarded the office of ward councillor in 2020 and has been promised to become a ward councillor in 2024 during local government elections.

Or

a 21 year old who has subscribed for Netflix and is not sure of going out if it rains?


There are hundreds of thousands of career politicians across Nigeria's grassroot politics whose entire hope of getting their next meal, building a house and feeding their children depends on returning their party's candidate.

Betraying their political party is like dropping out of school of medicine for no reason at 600 level.

N3TRAL:


Who is more likely to be loyal on election day ?

A Card carrying member who worked for the Party for 10 years, invested everything in the party? Stepped down on one instance for an older member to be awarded the office of ward councillor in 2020 and has been promised to become a ward councillor in 2024 during local government elections.

Or

a 21 year old who has subscribed for Netflix and is not sure of going out if it rains?


There are hundreds of thousands of career politicians across Nigeria's grassroot politics whose entire hope of getting their next meal, building a house and feeding their children depends on returning their party's candidate.

Betraying their political party is like dropping out of school of medicine for no reason at 600 level.

Mikeloo:


Answer to your question: NONE. I disagree on the bolded except you prove with statistics. Times have changed. Many Nigerians now demand accountability over gratification. If you have been to the Northern part of the country recently you will understand this

techWriter3:
not the party operatives and their immediate family members I mentioned above robots, goats or birds

N3TRAL:
Are APC and PDP structures in Nigeria a myth or reality?

There are 176846 (One Hundred Seventy Six Thousand Eight Hundred and Forty Six ) polling units across Nigeria.

As it stands today, APC and PDP have at least one agent in each of the polling units.

If that agent brings just "5" (five ) people who may be his friends, community neighbour, or family member, it would be 6 people to vote for either APC or PDP in those places.

176846 * 6 = 1,061,076

As it stands today, if INEC announces this evening that there will be Presidential Election across Nigeria by 8AM tomorrow morning, APC and PDP are sure of at least 1 million votes each without campaign, preparation or even buying votes.

That is what party structure means.


This is not a permutation. It is a straightforward analysis. Counter it with superior arguments.