Putin Misplays His Cards, what Could Have Been a Winning Hand has become the Road to Armageddon

Paul Craig Roberts

Every day that passes raises my concern that the Kremlin is mishandling a dangerous situation and making it more dangerous. Putin and Lavrov send every wrong signal. The message they should be sending is “Don’t Tread on Me.” Instead, Lavrov whines that his “Western partners” are being mean to Russia, and Putin offers energy so NATO countries can continue their war against Russia and be saved from freezing to death while they are fighting against Russia.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/UN-Resolution-Against-Russia-is-Diplomatic-Terror-Lavrov-Says-20221013-0007.html?utm_source=planisys&utm_medium=NewsletterIngles&utm_campaign=NewsletterIngles&utm_content=13

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/12/putin-offers-to-boost-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-nord-stream-2

Putin still doesn’t understand that he is at war. He speaks as if Russia is a member of the European Community.

https://sputniknews.com/20221012/putin-terror-attacks-against-nord-stream-seek-to-undermine-energy-security-of-continent-1101754059.html

The UN General Assembly passed a resolution demanding that Russia repudiate its reincorporation of four former provinces of Russia and unconditionally withdraw from Ukraine. Lavrov says that Washington is conducting “diplomatic terror” against Russia by controlling by intimidation the General Assembly’s vote.

How could Lavrov have expected any other outcome? If Lavrov wants the vote to go the other way, Russia, instead of the US, must become the country that pays the bills. Is Lavrov so out of touch with reality that he expects the UN to do anything but support Washington, the paymaster?

Aljazeera reports that two days ago Putin offered to ship natural gas to Europe through the one undamaged Nord Stream pipeline. This is the same Europe that is sending railway cars of weapons for Ukraine to use to kill Russians. This is the same Europe that supports Washington’s sanctions against Russia and imposes additional sanctions on its own. This is the same Europe that calls for regime change in Moscow and bans Russian athletes, performances of Russian composers and musicians, steals Russian assets, and refuses to comply with contractual agreements.

But the President of Russia wants to support their war effort against Russia by selling them energy. Does the Kremlin represent Russia, or is the Kremlin a marketing agent for an oil company?

The German government told Putin “NO,” we prefer for Germans to freeze to death and for German industry and economy to shut down than to displease Washington by buying your natural gas. How long before we see Putin on his knees begging Germany to let him give them the gas?

Putin knows that Washington and NATO Europe are determined to destroy Russia and break the country up into principalities comparable to Germany before the unification of Germany in 1871. Putin recently addressed the Russian people on the West’s declared threat against Russia, so why does he beg Europe to let Russia strengthen Europe against Russia by supplying Europe with energy?

In Washington the neoconservatives who control US foreign policy see the inconsistency between Putin’s words and deeds as Putin’s irresolution and inability to use force. This is why Washington is so confident that Russia can be defeated.

I think Washington is misreading the situation, and so is Putin. Putin is trying to avoid a real war and trying to show Europe that he is a friend and not an enemy. Putin’s play is obvious. He is telling Europe to ditch their Washington master and enjoy warm winters and operating industry with Russian energy. It would even be better for Americans who would continue to have parts for their BMWs, Porsches, Mercedes, and VWs.

Washington sees Putin as a person whose red lines are fictional and undefended. The recent Russian strikes, belatedly after eight months of being at war, against Ukrainian infrastructure are regarded by neoconservatives as being a weak response to the Ukrainian attempt to blow up the Crimea bridge. It was a tit for a tat, not a demonstration that Ukraine faces destruction if Ukraine widens the war beyond the Russian police action in Donbass.

The neoconservatives who make Washington’s war policy regard Putin’s willingness to allow the Ukrainian government to conduct war against Russia while Russia leaves Ukraine protected from attack an indication that Russia lacks the will to really fight.

Consequently, Washington believes that it has the advantage and will continue to escalate the provocations, expecting from the Kremlin only Lavrov’s whining and Putin’s offer of energy aid to NATO Europe.

At some point soon arriving, Russia is going to have to really fight and show the military competence and determination necessary to cause Washington to pull in its horns, or Armageddon will be amongst us.



Israel Shamir Understands and Reports the Limited Russian Intervention in Ukraine in the Same Way as I do

Putin has botched what could have been an easy victory that would have concluded before Washington had time to impose sanctions and organize Ukraine’s army and weapons supply. But Putin cannot free himself from his illusions and delusions about the West. Thus, the war has expanded into the conflict that Putin hoped to avoid. The question is whether Putin yet realizes that Russia is at war. He says so in speeches, but his actions are not in agreement with his words. In the end it seems that Putin himself is an Atlanticist Integrationist, not a Russian nationalist.

Israel Shamir says that Putin’s unwillingness to fight a real war means the war will go on, but not necessarily result in nuclear war because neither side wants it. My concern is that Putin’s Goody Two Shoes behavior will continue to encourage more provocations until matters spin out of control. At some point there will be red lines crossed that not even a pro-Western Atlanticist Integrationist can accept.
PCR

The Dull War
Israel Shamir

The war was predominantly dull; with little movement. Trench warfare as in WWI. The big mistake was at the beginning when Russia tried to take a country of 40m with a few soldiers. The Head of Russian Intelligence Mr Naryshkin recently admitted that Russia had no reliable intelligence on Ukraine. For many years, since 1991, Russian intelligence service did not follow developments in the Ukraine. So Russia went to war, hoping the Ukrainians would greet their soldiers with flowers. It ended with a big retreat of the Russian troops. Putin thought he could make an agreement with Kiev, but it turns out the Ukraine signs agreements one day and reneges on them the next day. So it went on, until half a year later the Russian army began mobilization of its reserves.

It was not all bad: Russia had good and bad moments in its fight with Ukraine. A good moment was the capture of Mariupol on the Azov Sea coast. A bad moment was the Kharkov retreat. A silly moment was the grain deal and the withdrawal from Serpent Island. Moments of trouble were when the US/UK marines exploded the gas pipelines and when Daria Dougin was assassinated. A moment of truth is the present critique of the army commanders, including calls for the Defence Minister to shoot himself. People are unhappy with the way the Russian army is acting. The explosion on the Crimea Bridge has made this feeling acute.

And at this moment Putin called General Surovikin to take charge of the war in Ukraine. Surovikin is a popular general who commanded the Syrian operation and he has been nicknamed “General Armageddon” for obvious reasons. And Gen. Armageddon did what the people wanted: he launched dozens of cruise missiles on Ukrainian cities. Kiev has been attacked for the first time; electricity was knocked out in many places, including Kharkov. Until now Putin took care of the Ukraine infrastructure as if it were his own. Now this has changed. One thing remained: the Russians try to preserve civilians, as opposed to the Ukrainian military who do not mind killing civilians.

The war started because since the 2014 coup the Ukrainians had been shelling the Donbas, a predominantly Russian-populated area in the South East of the country. Putin tried to solve the conflict by the Minsk agreement, which promised an autonomous Donbas within federal Ukraine. The Ukrainians signed the Minsk agreement but had no intention of observing its articles. They killed thousands of people from the Donbas, mainly by shelling their shops, schools, and even streets. The nationalists of the Azov Battalion were especially ferocious towards the Donbas people. When Russian troops came to help the Donbas in February this year, the Azov fighters retreated to the vast underground caverns of Mariupol steel works.

However, they surrendered soon enough: to be sealed in caverns is not much fun, though they had food and water. Some two thousand fighters went into captivity. The people of the Donbas wanted to send them to a tribunal together with foreign mercenaries. But Moscow overruled them and they were exchanged for Russian POWs, and, annoyingly, for an opposition politician. Some Azov POWs were killed by the Kiev shelling of the POW camp: they apparently had begun to reveal harmful truths about their actions. The exchanged Azov fighters were carried by an oligarch, the Russian Jew Roman Abramovitch, in his private jet to the UAE. This also annoyed the people, who would have preferred them to stand trial.

The patriotic Russians were quite upset by the way war was conducted. They felt that the Russian commanders were too soft on the Ukraine while the Ukrainians continued shelling the Donbas. Russian writers and artists often supported the Ukraine. In Moscow, money was gathered for the Ukraine, not for the Russian army. Now, General Armageddon’s blitz has changed this feeling, but still the Ukraine has many supporters in Russia in pro-Western circles. That is not likely to change soon: 30 years of pro-Western politics can’t be undone in a moment. Frustration was high, because the Donbas was shelled but Kiev was unharmed.

It seems that is Putin soft-pedalling the campaign: he still hopes for positive changes after the US midterm elections, and in keeping the Third World on his side. Time will show whether this is a reasonable hope. The Western mainstream media is batting for the Ukraine. Russians killed are presented as victims of Russian ethnic cleansing, as in Bucha and Izium. The grain deal was concluded only because the media screamed about starving Africa. It was a flop: only 2% of the wheat went to poor countries while the rest went to the EU. Russians also gave away Serpent Island, a perfect base for starting a landing operation in Odessa.

The Ukrainian elite receive a lot of money, and high level contacts and appreciation. Mrs Zelensky was wined and dined by HRH the Princess of Wales. They are not going to like peace and being consigned to obscurity. Putin’s desires are quite irrelevant now as the big customer of the Ukraine is the US/UK, and they gain from war. The war is paid for by Europe; the US gets profits. Now the US sells liquefied gas for 4 times the Russian price, and the Europeans pay.

Sure, it is costly for the Ukrainian people; they suffer under Russian missiles. But the US does not care. For them it is profitable. German industries will probably go down: even better for the US. They hope they will relocate to the US.

There is no doubt the Russian gas pipelines were severed by US/UK sabotage. Russian sources name even the person who did it (Lt. Chris Bianchi). Now we learn that NATO tried to bomb the gas pipelines in 2015 for the first time, but they were apprehended. Only now has it become known. Alas, Sweden does not want to allow Russian access to the site of explosion; nor does it wants to share the results of its investigation. The terrorists did a messy job: they left one pipeline untouched, so the Russians and the Germans can start pumping gas right away if there is the political will. But it’s unclear whether the Germans have any political will outside of conforming to US wishes.

The US’s Party of War is very strong and Russians have no chance of defeating it. But it does not mean a nuclear war is unavoidable. Neither the US or RF Presidents wants it. Probably the conventional war will go on without crossing to the nuclear threshold. The peace agreement probably will fall short of the wishes of both sides, but Russians are unwilling to enter another Minsk agreement just to be abused by Kiev.
Russia and Sanctions

The main US/EU weapons against Russia are sanctions and the Iron Curtain. While sanctions have made only a little dent in the fabric of Russian society, this is not the case with the Iron Curtain. It is painful and annoying. For the last 30 years, Russians have got used to travelling to Europe. Now they have to change their habits. Yes, Russians can travel to Turkey and to Israel, to India and to Latin America, but Europe was nearby and friendly. Now it is difficult to reach: usually they can via a flight to Istanbul, but for much more money. It is especially painful for wealthy Russians: they used to spend their weekends in Paris and London; not anymore.
Sanctions are probably disturbing for businessmen, but ordinary people notice them less in Russia than in Europe. Meat is good and plentiful; gas is cheap; theatre is good and inexpensive. The whole Ring of the Nibelungs (four extra-long operas) can be heard for a hundred dollars.

Inflation happens in Russia, like everywhere else. But there is no green madness, or gender craze. There are no patriotic teaching or songs. Russia is quite progressive but not too much. Churches are open and full of worshippers. Actually, life is normal. Perhaps too normal for a country whose frontline just collapsed because of lack of soldiers.

Mobilisation has come to correct this deficiency. For the first time in 80 years Russians are mobilising, and it went poorly. Volunteers were refused, while the sick and elderly were drafted. A lot of relatively young pro-Western people escaped to Georgia and Israel, where there is no need for visas. But still, the necessary amount of folk were drafted. In two months, the Russian army will have enough soldiers to keep the frontline.

In the meantime it is dealing with terror. The explosion of the Crimea Bridge has been investigated. It turned out that the explosives were sent out of the Ukraine by a boat ostensibly loaded with wheat according to the wheat deal. The deadly load went via Bulgaria and Georgia to Russia. Just now Russian security has detained the Ukrainians who smuggled two Igla anti-aircraft missiles with launchers via Estonia. They planned to down civilian airplanes in Russia. Estonia was involved in the killing of Daria Dougin, a young Russian lady, daughter of philosopher Alexander Dougin, in the vicinity of Moscow. The Estonian minister congratulated Ukraine for the terrorist act on the Crimea Bridge. Lithuania tried to stop Russian access to its enclave in East Prussia. In short, the Ukraine is not alone, and Russia has many neutral sympathisers, but few allies.

The war goes on…

Russia is playing the winter card. Let me explain:
The reality is Europe is collapsing far before this Ukraine war. It was due to COVID Lockdowns, the COVID bail outs and the imposible Green Energy transition. The war was instigated by EU with the aim to destroy and loot Russia Gas as their last hope.

Russia need not do anything... They just have to keep Ukraine at bay till Heating season sets in. The Masses will rise and displace their current politicians.

NATO and EU elite are looking for excuse to launch all out war with Russia because they have no excuse to give their people for their pain.

Kazim88:
Russia is playing the winter card. Let me explain:
The reality is Europe is collapsing far before this Ukraine war. It was due to COVID Lockdowns, the COVID bail outs and the imposible Green Energy transition. The war was instigated by EU with the aim to destroy and loot Russia Gas as their last hope.

Russia need not do anything... They just have to keep Ukraine at bay till Heating season sets in. The Masses will rise and displace their current politicians.

NATO and EU elite are looking for excuse to launch all out war with Russia because they have no excuse to give their people for their pain.

I agree with your analysis in near totality unless when you said NATO and EU elite are looking for excuse to launch all out war with Russia. The elites are stupid but not that stupid to mess with Russia militarily. They know exactly the price they will pay incase their stupidity gets the best of them

Even today Marcon said USA is not a good friend as USA LNG gas costed X5 of Russia gas and this came 3 days after German government also accused USA of selling LNG to EU at over 5X price.

This war shows what I have been saying for long, USA does not care about anyone except USA which we black Africans should be doing but our leaders are useless and fool yet we keep voting for same set of people every time.

Turkey today announced they will join the deal Russia to become Gas hub for Russia gas, because Turkey will be getting cheap gas also, who does not like better thing.

Azeri is buying Russia gas and selling to EU at X3 and did Sweden refused to share its investigation on NS2 with Germany and Co because it’s too secretive according to Sweden meaning it USA, or Poland that is responsible for the damage on the NS2.

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I agree with your analysis in near totality unless when you said NATO and EU elite are looking for excuse to launch all out war with Russia. The elites are stupid but not that stupid to mess with Russia militarily. They know exactly the price they will pay incase their stupidity gets the best of them

NATO and EU leadership are completely stupid else they would had known that US don't want a strong and independent Europe. The US sabotaged the France Australia Sub deal, US sabotage Nord Stream 2, it is an open Policy but they believe US is their 'ally'.

They also believe that if Russia and China is defeated prosperity will start to flow.

Countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are itching for Direct conflict.
Country like Germany, Spain, UK are waiting for any slight opportunity of internal conflict to step in.

This is my best case prediction, The US will strike a deal with Russia, throw the EU under the bus. The EU is in a massive crisis but they are using Russian Ukraine war as a distraction, soon the crisis will be too hot to ignore.

My worst case scenario, Russia will use conventional weapon to sink Ukraine, the world will condem and react, Instigated by the US, Poland will attack Russia itself, Russia will Whine and complain, another NATO country will strike.... Russia will call on UN... At a point, Russian will have to use Nuke on the US and UK.... US and UK will retailate.

After the Nuclear War, the world will seek the face of God.

Infact, the level of Wokeness in the west is far less than that of Sodom and Gomorrah, so the west is due for a reset.

Kazim88:


NATO and EU leadership are completely stupid else they would had known that US don't want a strong and independent Europe. The US sabotaged the France Australia Sub deal, US sabotage Nord Stream 2, it is an open Policy but they believe US is their 'ally'.

They also believe that if Russia and China is defeated prosperity will start to flow.

Countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are itching for Direct conflict.
Country like Germany, Spain, UK are waiting for any slight opportunity of internal conflict to step in.

This is my best case prediction, The US will strike a deal with Russia, throw the EU under the bus. The EU is in a massive crisis but they are using Russian Ukraine war as a distraction, soon the crisis will be too hot to ignore.

My worst case scenario, Russia will use conventional weapon to sink Ukraine, the world will condem and react, Instigated by the US, Poland will attack Russia itself, Russia will Whine and complain, another NATO country will strike.... Russia will call on UN... At a point, Russian will have to use Nuke on the US and UK.... US and UK will retailate.

After the Nuclear War, the world will seek the face of God.

Infact, the level of Wokeness in the west is far less than that of Sodom and Gomorrah, so the west is due for a reset.

I really Respect the maturity Russia displayed all through this Crisis.
They know that United States was trying to set Uprising of hatred but Russia under Putin was smart enough and now the game turns around.
EU will sink United States I Promise you this

WATCHOVER:

I really Respect the maturity Russia displayed all through this Crisis.
They know that United States was trying to set Uprising of hatred but Russia under Putin was smart enough and now the game turns around.
EU will sink United States I Promise you this

EU can sink US but they will need Russian Energy. If EU can broker a deal with Russia inspite of US then they would sink US.

THE GROUP OF BRAINLESS FOLKS LEAVES NOTHING SENSIBLE

Kazim88:


NATO and EU leadership are completely stupid else they would had known that US don't want a strong and independent Europe. The US sabotaged the France Australia Sub deal, US sabotage Nord Stream 2, it is an open Policy but they believe US is their 'ally'.

They also believe that if Russia and China is defeated prosperity will start to flow.

Countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland are itching for Direct conflict.
Country like Germany, Spain, UK are waiting for any slight opportunity of internal conflict to step in.

This is my best case prediction, The US will strike a deal with Russia, throw the EU under the bus. The EU is in a massive crisis but they are using Russian Ukraine war as a distraction, soon the crisis will be too hot to ignore.

My worst case scenario, Russia will use conventional weapon to sink Ukraine, the world will condem and react, Instigated by the US, Poland will attack Russia itself, Russia will Whine and complain, another NATO country will strike.... Russia will call on UN... At a point, Russian will have to use Nuke on the US and UK.... US and UK will retailate.

After the Nuclear War, the world will seek the face of God.

Infact, the level of Wokeness in the west is far less than that of Sodom and Gomorrah, so the west is due for a reset.

You imagined and literally planned out a world war in your head, wow! Congratulations!

Russia will not attack NATO first, NATO will not attack Russia first too. Period.

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Putin Misplays His Cards, what Could Have Been a Winning Hand has become the Road to Armageddon

Paul Craig Roberts

Every day that passes raises my concern that the Kremlin is mishandling a dangerous situation and making it more dangerous. Putin and Lavrov send every wrong signal. The message they should be sending is “Don’t Tread on Me.” Instead, Lavrov whines that his “Western partners” are being mean to Russia, and Putin offers energy so NATO countries can continue their war against Russia and be saved from freezing to death while they are fighting against Russia.

Being mean is an understatement. The Russians know what this is all about right from the onset and has played every card pretty well. Like the lecturer of all politics and war. They have carefully chosen their cards and played them super well from the beginning of the conflict, since 2014. You have just got to give it to them.

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https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/UN-Resolution-Against-Russia-is-Diplomatic-Terror-Lavrov-Says-20221013-0007.html?utm_source=planisys&utm_medium=NewsletterIngles&utm_campaign=NewsletterIngles&utm_content=13

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/12/putin-offers-to-boost-gas-supplies-to-europe-via-nord-stream-2

Putin still doesn’t understand that he is at war. He speaks as if Russia is a member of the European Community.

On the contrary, the Russians have been at war with the west since the Monarchy was destroyed and replaced with a provisional government until the Zionist revolution which then lead to the USSR and what you have today as the Balkanization of the Russian people. The west is mad, very mad that they are losing or have lost again to Russia since Russia is finally back. They tried testing Russian during the Chechnia war, but it did not end well for them. Even the remnant of the Western or what you might call EURO integrationists (the 5th column and 6th) are mad at the west. Thanks to Putin, he finally won that internal struggle. It's the west particularly the baby EUROPE or EU who still do not understand they are at a WAR for Economic survival. Not with Russia but with the Washington treaty.

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The German government told Putin “NO,” we prefer for Germans to freeze to death and for German industry and economy to shut down than to displease Washington by buying your natural gas. How long before we see Putin on his knees begging Germany to let him give them the gas?

Putin knows that Washington and NATO Europe are determined to destroy Russia and break the country up into principalities comparable to Germany before the unification of Germany in 1871. Putin recently addressed the Russian people on the West’s declared threat against Russia, so why does he beg Europe to let Russia strengthen Europe against Russia by supplying Europe with energy?

This is exactly what the Bait in Eastern Ukraine is all about. It has since changed from Ukraine-Russia now to Russia's NATO war but most precisely New Europe. Putin offering gas to Europe is giving them two options. DO YOU WANT your CHEAP GAS back or do you Want to Fight with 300,000 well-armed Russians? (Plus Belarus is also moping up and CIS too mind you)

I believe those puppets or vassals in Germany and France are even worse than Zelensky. They will choose to fight with the hope they re-due what was done in the past during the Crimean war. (This is their only hope). Today, Turkey won't be used as their cannon fodders since Russia already offered Turkey a gas deal. Wooing Turkey. So New EUROPE vs Russia will fail. This is what has been on the table for a long time.

The new EUROPE vs Russia in covert operation is going on right now. When they see they cannot change the tide unless they drag old Europe into it, will those fight? Is anyone of them ready to have Paris bombed to the Ashes? I doubt no. People will rather choose not to fight in one. So Putin is still the smarted Politician alive.

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In Washington the neoconservatives who control US foreign policy see the inconsistency between Putin’s words and deeds as Putin’s irresolution and inability to use force. This is why Washington is so confident that Russia can be defeated.

I think Washington is misreading the situation, and so is Putin. Putin is trying to avoid a real war and trying to show Europe that he is a friend and not an enemy. Putin’s play is obvious. He is telling Europe to ditch their Washington master and enjoy warm winters and operating industry with Russian energy. It would even be better for Americans who would continue to have parts for their BMWs, Porsches, Mercedes, and VWs.

Washington sees Putin as a person whose red lines are fictional and undefended. The recent Russian strikes, belatedly after eight months of being at war, against Ukrainian infrastructure are regarded by neoconservatives as being a weak response to the Ukrainian attempt to blow up the Crimea bridge. It was a tit for a tat, not a demonstration that Ukraine faces destruction if Ukraine widens the war beyond the Russian police action in Donbass.

In reality, they do not see Putin as being weak. They are really happy and laughing right now. The question someone outside the box should ask is how would Britain fight a war with Ireland. How would the U.S.A fight a war with Canada? This is exactly the way Brothers fight. In the case of Russia, it's their lands and survival they are fighting here not the other way around. They are not in any of those lands that were under the Austro-Hungarian empire, this explains why more people speak the Russian language in Ukraine. Russia has been too kind. Has sent too much body language but going only to deaf ears. Don't be surprised, if Russia decides to start Striking the U.S.A first as another warning sign. If the west chooses to test its long-range weapons by sending them Ukraine to Ukraine. Be rest assured that Russia will deliver the same to Syria and all U.S bases in Syria and even Iraq may be roasted. That is if they choose to escalate it. Russia has still not escalated it. Just keeping it calm and trying to contain it. This is the card Russia holds very calmly. It must not be acting like what the global south, CIS,BRICS, EURASIA are running away from. Trust, every one of them understand Russia's position.. Russia has turned to this card as well.

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Putin has botched what could have been an easy victory that would have concluded before Washington had time to impose sanctions and organize Ukraine’s army and weapons supply. But Putin cannot free himself from his illusions and delusions about the West. Thus, the war has expanded into the conflict that Putin hoped to avoid. The question is whether Putin yet realizes that Russia is at war. He says so in speeches, but his actions are not in agreement with his words. In the end it seems that Putin himself is an Atlanticist Integrationist, not a Russian nationalist.

Wrong, Putin is a Unifier and more of a EURASIA Integrationist but not what you wrote. If you had called Dmitry Medvedev an Atlanticist, I would not agree less. The thing now is, Russian Atlanticist and EURASIA Integrationist are unified, dumping the the Atlanticist ideology and following Putin. Cos the future really is EURASIA. When EUROPE eyes are finally opened, the BOAT would have sailed, and they will need the catching up to do. By then, U.S.A will be irrelevant.

Let me stop here.. Too many incorrect info..