One of the issues with Tinubu supporters is their inability to be factual, practical and empirical in analyzing the chance(s) of the the APC presidential candidate.

If you ask an Atiku supporter how Atiku would win the presidency, he would tell you that Atiku is sure of victory in Northeast, except Borno and Yobe, Northwest, except Kano because of Kwankwaso, and Southsouth because of Okowa and PDP structure (even though we know this is a pipe dream).

Ask an Obi supporter and he would tell you that Obi has Southeast and Southsouth on lockdown. Now, with Buhari administration having supervised the greatest massacre of people of Middle Belt in history, those people do not want to hear Muslim or Fulani again which leaves them with only the option of voting Peter Obi. A scenario that will clearly give Obi Victory in North Central and other Bible Belt region like Taraba, Southern Kaduna, Southern Gombe, Southern Kebbi, Southern Borno and even Adamawa. I can tell you authoritatively, that it is an incontrovertible fact that these people would even pay to vote for Obi if it comes to that. For them, it is a “life and death” something.

But ask a Tinubu supporter to empirically and logically demonstrate how Tinubu would win the presidency and you will start to hear statements like, “Tinubu is the next president whether you like it or not” and other illogical gibberish.

But I want to remind them of a reality that they like to avoid.

Buhari was able to become president in 2015 because he won almost the entire North plus the Southwest region. While the Southeast and Southsouth and some part of North Central stuck with Jonathan.

Now, for Tinubu to win the presidency, he must have to win the north in addition to his native Southwest region. If not all of the north, at least 2 northern regions plus southwest.

The question therefore is, can Tinubu win the Northeast ahead of Atiku?

Again, can Tinubu win the Northwest ahead of Atiku and Kwankwaso? Especially with some APC governors in Northwest starting to show some kind of cold feet towards Tinubu’s campaign.

Or can Tinubu win the North Central ahead of Atiku and Peter Obi?

Of course Tinubu’s chances in Southeast and Southsouth is too obvious to be talked about.

Any candidate who will win the presidency next year must win at least 3 regions in addition to getting 25% of votes cast in some other states, which other region can Tinubu realistically win asides Southwest?

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44

No, northerners are obidient

Forgot those urchins.
Obi is a goal.

Win where please?

In his dream.

Even when it's glaring that the North will massively vote for Atiku and Kwankwaso... A lot of Obidients will give Obi their votes from the North, but it will not be enough....

Pa Tinubu will have the smallest of votes in the North...



If this election will be conducted on a free and fair ground...

Pa Tinubu and will only struggle within the West.

Tinubu eye go clear at the right time

I can see the gathering of zombidients who have lost their reasoning faculty to emotion and tribal sentiments

Those of you underrating Tinubu with his Muslim ticket .. will be In upmost shock

Tinubu will be over 6million votes ahead of Obi and still lose

Southwest, northwest and north central are Tinubu strongholds

Including percentage from south and east..

Question is where will Obi get his votes on reality not media noise

JASONjnr:
Even when it's glaring that the North will massively vote for Atiku and Kwankwaso... A lot of Obidients will give Obi their votes from the North, but it will not be enough....

Pa Tinubu will have the smallest of votes in the North...



If this election will be conducted on a free and fair ground...

Pa Tinubu and will only struggle within the West.

Tinubu will not do too badly in NW/NE, he won’t win the NE/NW. My hope is that he does badly in North Central.

Why do Peter Obi urchins always have sleepless nights over Tinubu’s ambition? What’s your business with where Tinubu will get his votes from or who will vote or not vote for Tinubu? Why not face Peter Obi’s campaign and stop having migraine over Tinubu’s path to victory?

There are two possible outcome In an election; you win or lose. Tinubu is a democrat and understands the possible outcome perfectly. Stop wasting your time trying to convince or confuse yourself that Tinubu cannot get northerner votes. It is none of your business. After the election, we shall see how each candidates performed in all the six geopolitical zones.

Hahahaha!... February no far again. I will come back to this thread after the election.

Tinubu is winning the north that is all I know, APC has many state under their control than PDP, Atiku will win South South am 100% sure of this. Obi will try but he can't match ATIKU AND TINUBU when the real Business of Politics start. Atiku as a lot of men under his foot same as Tinubu, they both as foot Army.

MissLeslie:
Tinubu is winning the north that is all I know, APC has many state under their control than PDP, Atiku will win South South am 100% sure of this. Obi will try but he can't match ATIKU AND TINUBU when the real Business of Politics start. Atiku as a lot of men under his foot same as Tinubu, they both as foot Army.

The APC governors will thumb print on behalf of people! Well February will put to rest all the delusion

Atiku has an upper hand especially in North East and North West. North Central will favour the major candidates

I am a northerner and I am voting for tinubu

Asgard73:
Those of you underrating Tinubu with his Muslim ticket .. will be In upmost shock

Tinubu will be over 6million votes ahead of Obi and still lose

Southwest and northwest and north central are Tinubu strongholds

Including percentage from south and east..

Question is where will Obi get his votes on reality not media noise

Some percentage in which East?

And just look at you contradicting yourself just to spite Obi.

If Northwest, North Central and Southwest are Tinubu’s strongholds, where then is your Atiku’s stronghold?

seunmsg:
Why do Peter Obi urchins always have sleepless nights over Tinubu’s ambition? What’s your business with where Tinubu will get his votes from or who will vote or not vote for Tinubu? Why not face Peter Obi’s campaign and stop having migraine over Tinubu’s path to victory?

There are two possible outcome In an election; you win or lose. Tinubu is a democrat and understands the possible outcome perfectly. Stop wasting your time trying to convince or confuse yourself that Tinubu cannot get northerner votes. It is none of your business. After the election, we shall see how each candidates performed in all the six geopolitical zones.

Seun, the challenge is simple…

Logically demonstrate or state where Tinubu will get his votes asides Southwest.

All this plenty talk ko necessestri

Tinubu supporters that believe Tinubu would win south west because he is their homeboy but don't believe Atiku would do same in his home region


Op let me correct you concerning north central, it's going to be shared by all party

I expect Tinubu to win Kwara and Kogi because it's very close to Yoruba and they have APC governors to edge it

Taraba is for Atiku hands down those guys get personal covenant with Atiku.

Plateau is for PDP hands down, but Benue and Abuja fit go for LP because we don't know of ortom commitment yet and Abuja is for elite.

But Nassarawa, and Niger (PDP would get one or two here because you have core Muslim and ethnic fanatics in their numbers who want to keep the pendulum of the state for Muslims)

Penguin2:


Some percentage in which East?

And just look at you contradicting yourself just to spite Obi.

If Northwest, North Central and Southwest are Tinubu’s strongholds, where then is your Atiku’s stronghold?

Politcs is not sentiments and emotions .. and am telling you..the reality and strategy Asiwaju believe and his reason for Muslim ticket

But at each turn .. you’re blinded by ethnic sentiments of Supoorting Obi .. even with the live threat of jihadist staring at you.. with Tinubu presidency

Can an Obi win Tinubu if he was giving Pdp ticket ?

Can a Wike win Tinubu if he was given PDP ticket?

Atiku is a checkmate .. you don’t understand Northern Nigeria

I pity those OBi supporters calling out Christians in the North.. forgetting that Arewa is more than religion .. .. Arewa supersede religion when it comes to north internal affairs ..
Tinubu Apc ticket favors 90% of Islamic North.. if not for conciense.. and Atiku factor .. e happened .

2023 elections will be so different from other Nigerian national elections .. the dynamic has change

Tinubu and Apc Islamic ticket and the audacity of it should be something every sane Nigerian must use prayer in whatever form to reject

Asking where he will get his votes .. means you’re really sleeping on a speeding bikes

Penguin2:


Seun, the challenge is simple…

Logically demonstrate or state where Tinubu will get his votes asides Southwest.

All this plenty talk ko necessestri

Take your own advice and stop the plenty talk. Whether Tinubu wins or not is none of your business. Leave Tinubu’s electoral strategy to his team and worry yourself about how Peter Obi will win. I have nothing to demonstrate to an obituarists.

The common man makes the numbers in our population,and Yes bcus of Hunger imposed by the evil Political class, they have been forefront in voting in this APC disaster,but the level of suffering wey APC show them ehnn,
E no get calculation at all
To most people on the streets,it's anything but APC,most of them no care about who go Win them just want make this APC calamity hand.
I am in the bridge of the Two most relative social strata in the Nija Society so I know watin I dey tell you.
Come 2023 Your President will be Obi or Atiku, don't pay the Price for DisObidience by voting Atiku bcus His emergency as President will emboldened some section of this Union, especially some Fulani section who claims that Nija is their Inheritance giving to them by Usman Dan fodio.
Don't gamble the sacrifice of another 8years of killer heardmen wahala on my candidate,my Tribe,my party must win madness.
Obidiati is the way forward.

seunmsg:


Take your own advice and stop the plenty talk. Whether Tinubu wins or not is none of your business. Leave Tinubu’s electoral strategy to his team and worry yourself about how Peter Obi will win. I have nothing to demonstrate to an obituarists.

Hmmmn. The usual tactics. When backed to the wall, he becomes condescending. If don't know, admit you don't know. It doesn't take anything from you but makes you a better ma..... thing. Kapische?

I dewan a southerner and I dewan voting for politicians

seunmsg:
Why do Peter Obi urchins always have sleepless nights over Tinubu’s ambition? What’s your business with where Tinubu will get his votes from or who will vote or not vote for Tinubu? Why not face Peter Obi’s campaign and stop having migraine over Tinubu’s path to victory?

There are two possible outcome In an election; you win or lose. Tinubu is a democrat and understands the possible outcome perfectly. Stop wasting your time trying to convince or confuse yourself that Tinubu cannot get northerner votes. It is none of your business. After the election, we shall see how each candidates performed in all the six geopolitical zones.

But its always ok for you to predict where Obi wouldn't get votes. Get a life, will you. Kadoso Mutairu!