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"He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 - Politics - Nairaland

Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 (1162 Views)

Peter Obi’s Quiet inroads into the Muslim North By Farooq A. Kperogi / FFK: The Muslim North May Retain Power For The Next 20 Years. / Just In ! Kalu,buhari Win Abia North’s 5 Lgas As PDP Unleashes Terror (2) (3) (4)

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"He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by jamesakubuilo: 3:01pm On Oct 30, 2022

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYNFT_JG4Oo

Contrary to some other polls, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research has predicted defeat for Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party for the 2023 general elections.

In a report, the firm, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating organisation, listed some factors that will work against Obi in the 2023 presidential election.

1. Peter Obi lacks support in the Muslim North

Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra state in the southeast, lacks the support of the Muslim north. The report said Obi would lose because the majority of the voters are located in the north, adding that the region also usually records higher turn-out during elections than other parts of the country.

2. Labour Party lacks structure The report also noted that the Labour Party, the party on whose platform Obi is contesting, does not have a structure and has no “candidates for most of the positions for state Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate and governorship” that can deliver above other contenders.

3. 25 per cent of votes requirement According to the 1999 Constitution, for a presidential candidate to be declared winner, he/she must score the highest number of votes and secure 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 states of the federation. With the Labour Party’s lack of structure, Fitch said this feat would be difficult for Obi to achieve.

4. Being a southern Christian

Fitch said the electorate in the north (the region with higher voter turn-outs) historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. As a Christian from the south (Anambra State), Obi will struggle to get the massive votes required to win in the northern region.

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by alukotitilope19: 3:02pm On Oct 30, 2022
Even if they eventually succeed in denying him the well deserved victory, I'll still be happy to have played my part by voting my conscience �

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by isaacngozi79: 3:03pm On Oct 30, 2022
But this is no longer news. we've been hearing about structure since the day Obi left PDP to labour party. So giving up is not an option. ObiDatti 2023 we move. My fellow OBI-DIENTS, there is no no room for distraction bikonu

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Nobody: 3:04pm On Oct 30, 2022
OBI IS IBO

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by obafemiawoga: 3:05pm On Oct 30, 2022
They said there's nothing like political structure, it seems they don't understand what is political structure means, please explain to them...������

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by NigeriaIsGreat: 3:05pm On Oct 30, 2022
Lol

No sane person alive take Obi serious

Not even the mad man at upper iweaka who happened to be his special adviser

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by mymadam(m): 3:06pm On Oct 30, 2022
jerseyboy:
OBI IS IBO

So? undecided

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by johnsonadewole: 3:07pm On Oct 30, 2022
Who is he that said it and it cometh to pass when the Lord commanded it not? Lamentation 3:37, so we are OBI'diently not discouraged

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by TinubuThief: 3:09pm On Oct 30, 2022
Labour party is now APC and PDP opposition, wonderful

1 Like

Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by dollytino4real(f): 3:10pm On Oct 30, 2022
Na only north get Nigeria

2 Likes

Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Nobody: 3:11pm On Oct 30, 2022
Fake fitch rating... this has been debunked already.

Muslims no be human being too..
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Nobody: 3:15pm On Oct 30, 2022
Good point, especially the last one.

No Southern christian candidate has won elections in the far North, since Obasanjo in 1999...and Obasanjo won because he was more famillar to Northern voters than Falae. Since 2003, Buhari has won in the far north.

The only way that Obi can win is to do as Obasanjo in 2003, and GEJ in 2011...win the majority of votes in the South...the vast majority..like your party wins all the Southern states except 2 states, and win most of the Middle Belt states...especially Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna, Taraba, Benue, and Adamawa. (GEJ would have won in 2015, but he lost kogi, kwara and benue, and narrowly won Nassarawa).

Obi is not going to win most of the South, he may win the SE, and maybe a close second in the SS, but he won't win SW, and he won't win in the North and middle belt. All the main middlebelt pols are either keeping quiet, or lowkey supporting Atiku. Tinubu could win the North if Buhari succeds in rallying his people to him...but I strongly doubt...APC mess of 8 years is going to wake a lot of people up.

Moral of the story...never run a tribal ticket.

1 Like

Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Nobody: 3:19pm On Oct 30, 2022
dollytino4real:
Na only north get Nigeria

Obasanjo proved that the North does not control voting destiny in 2003...and in 2007, he even chose the North's candidate for them..and there was nothing they could do about it.

GEJ would have beaten Buhari in 2015, if Benue, Kogi and Kwara had gone to PDP. unfortunately...PDP was divided at the state level in those states, Saraki then defected to APC, and Benue election in 2015 was a referendum on PDP's governorship performance, not a vote for Buhari.

The thing about Obi is, he is not making aggresive moves to get the vote in the Middle Belt, and apart from focusing on lagos, there is no attempt to move on the Southwest by LP...and LP lost two elections in the SW...badly. Very badly.
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Asgard73: 3:19pm On Oct 30, 2022
OBi fit no win.. but at least e don change the politcal balance of southern Nigeria

Yoruba is on panic ..

... going forward .. is not going to be business as usual.

Power to the people
North 2023
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by manuelkel(m): 3:20pm On Oct 30, 2022
alukotitilope19:
Even if they eventually succeed in denying him the well deserved victory, I'll still be happy to have played my part by voting my conscience �

With courtesy of this comment I say let's be obedient 2023 cool
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Nobody: 3:36pm On Oct 30, 2022
alukotitilope19:
Even if they eventually succeed in denying him the well deserved victory, I'll still be happy to have played my part by voting my conscience �

(See the extent Ibos go to deceive people and FOOL THEMSELVES. Ibos are SHAMELESS)

IBO MAN AND COMPRESSED FLAT BRAIN SENSE. ONLY IBOS REGIISTER NEW MONIKAS WITH OBVIOUS YORUBA/HAUSA NAMES AND START TO IMMEDIATELY FORMING YORUBA/HAUSA/ NIGER DELTA ON NAIRALAND TO PROMOTE IBOPI

Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by ysth(m): 3:52pm On Oct 30, 2022
Kasssandra:
Good point, especially the last one.

No Southern christian candidate has won elections in the far North, since Obasanjo in 1999...and Obasanjo won because he was more famillar to Northern voters than Falae. Since 2003, Buhari has won in the far north.

The only way that Obi can win is to do as Obasanjo in 2003, and GEJ in 2011...win the majority of votes in the South...the vast majority..like your party wins all the Southern states except 2 states, and win most of the Middle Belt states...especially Kogi, Kwara, Nassarawa, Kaduna, Taraba, Benue, and Adamawa. (GEJ would have won in 2015, but he lost kogi, kwara and benue, and narrowly won Nassarawa).

Obi is not going to win most of the South, he may win the SE, and maybe a close second in the SS, but he won't win SW, and he won't win in the North and middle belt. All the main middlebelt pols are either keeping quiet, or lowkey supporting Atiku. Tinubu could win the North if Buhari succeds in rallying his people to him...but I strongly doubt...APC mess of 8 years is going to wake a lot of people up.

Moral of the story...never run a tribal ticket.
Atiku is running a tribal ticket by saying northerners need a president of northern origin, I havent see a more tribal candidate than this. So where do you expect his votes to come from since he has the entire north? South south, south east, south west, christian part of middle belt? You must think 2023 is 2015. The north always make it seem the election is theirs for the winning because of their number but the fact still remains that Buhari lost elections 3 times even after getting majority votes in the north. Obj won election twice without overwhelming support from his south west. Yaradua won his election because south south, south east voted for him due to obasanjos influence. This same election, Atiku and Buhari lost. So it becomes unintelligent for you to think Obi who is likely to win majority votes in south east, south south, middle belt and pockets of votes in south west and the north is running a tribal ticket.
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by ukenke: 4:06pm On Oct 30, 2022
2023 will surprise many. If you make your predictions based on known patterns in Nigerian elections, then you have not been paying attention.

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Lastmessenger2: 4:14pm On Oct 30, 2022
What these foools fail to understand Is that there are four contestants in this presidential election. Two are coming from the north and the other two are coming from south. In the south obi is the preferred candidate while atiku is the preferred Candidate in the core north. The middle belt is up for grab for the three major candidates.peter obi has a big chance and he knows the challenges he is facing. Keep your propaganda and wait for the election day

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Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Nobody: 4:21pm On Oct 30, 2022
ysth:

Atiku is running a tribal ticket by saying northerners need a president of northern origin, I havent see a more tribal candidate than this. So where do you expect his votes to come from since he has the entire north? South south, south east, south west, christian part of middle belt? You must think 2023 is 2015. The north always make it seem the election is theirs for the winning because of their number but the fact still remains that Buhari lost elections 3 times even after getting majority votes in the north. Obj won election twice without overwhelming support from his south west. Yaradua won his election because south south, south east voted for him due to obasanjos influence. This same election, Atiku and Buhari lost. So it becomes unintelligent for you to think Obi who is likely to win majority votes in south east, south south, middle belt and pockets of votes in south west and the north is running a tribal ticket.

Obi is not going to win the middle belt. That is between pdp and apc. South South is heavily pdp.

Until labour party wakes up and sets up structures in these areas, nothing will happen.

Also, don't call me unintelligent. I don't lnow why most of you cannot disagree with someone without throwing abuse . I did not abuse you at all.
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Tinubumustfail: 5:52pm On Oct 30, 2022
Lies from the pit of hell. Obi is well known in the North than Tinubu
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by onatisi(m): 6:20pm On Oct 30, 2022
alukotitilope19:
Even if they eventually succeed in denying him the well deserved victory, I'll still be happy to have played my part by voting my conscience �

this is what many people don't understand, THERE IS NO WAY OBI CAN WIN BUT HE WILL DEFINITELY BREAK AND SPLIT VOTES, HE WILL GIVE A GOOD SHOWING AND THAT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GIVE THE YOUTH HOPE FOR THE FUTURE
there is no way obi will not split all the votes in the south, from Lagos to Enugu and Enugu to Akure.
his emergence in this election went completely uncalculated by APC. if they knew about obi leaving PDP, maybe they would have poached him since last year. he is the only and biggest obstacle to tinubu ambition. no matter how bad, he will definitely have 10-15 % of the total votes cast and that is enough to jeopardize the dreams of APC, THE ONLY TASK ATIKU NOW IS TO MAKE SURE HE SECURES AND HOLD THE NORTH FIRMLY, THESE NORTHERNERS KNOW HOW TO PLAY POLITICS, REASON WHY ATIKU GAVE ALL MAJOR ROLES IN HIS CAMPAIGN TEAM TO NORTHERNERS, THEY ARE THE DECIDERS THIS TIME AROUND
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by JO01: 6:27pm On Oct 30, 2022
The truth people fail to understand is that, 2023 is based on the use of BVAS, so the incidence of mass rigging and child voting will be out of it. So expect a lower than the usual high results from Kano , Katsina and Borno etc.Even Lagos result will surprise a lot of persons.

1 Like

Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by cavreek: 7:02pm On Oct 30, 2022
In Nigeria there is no surprise whatsoever in who will become the president in 2023
The fact is that the winner will not emerge in 2023 but as a result of years of planning and strategic reasoning frim decades
I commend BAT even though am not a follower but he sure knows how well politics is done in nigeria. He has loyalists some even governors who will ensure that he is victorious not forgetting all those thriving business who have benefited under his administration
OBI mistake was leaving his former party, he would have stayed back probably gets picked as a vice and from there he gains momentum to launch his vision
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by afesco: 7:31pm On Oct 30, 2022
jamesakubuilo:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uYNFT_JG4Oo

Contrary to some other polls, Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research has predicted defeat for Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party for the 2023 general elections.

In a report, the firm, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating organisation, listed some factors that will work against Obi in the 2023 presidential election.

1. Peter Obi lacks support in the Muslim North

Peter Obi, a former governor of Anambra state in the southeast, lacks the support of the Muslim north. The report said Obi would lose because the majority of the voters are located in the north, adding that the region also usually records higher turn-out during elections than other parts of the country.

2. Labour Party lacks structure The report also noted that the Labour Party, the party on whose platform Obi is contesting, does not have a structure and has no “candidates for most of the positions for state Assemblies, House of Representatives, Senate and governorship” that can deliver above other contenders.

3. 25 per cent of votes requirement According to the 1999 Constitution, for a presidential candidate to be declared winner, he/she must score the highest number of votes and secure 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 states of the federation. With the Labour Party’s lack of structure, Fitch said this feat would be difficult for Obi to achieve.

4. Being a southern Christian

Fitch said the electorate in the north (the region with higher voter turn-outs) historically tends to vote for presidential candidates from their region. As a Christian from the south (Anambra State), Obi will struggle to get the massive votes required to win in the northern region.
How many core Northern States did GEJ won in 2011? He lost states like Kanu, Kaduna, Kastina, Borno, Bauchi, Kebbi, Yobe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Gombe, Zamfara but he won the election. Peter Obi is not expected to win the above States to win 2023 election.
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by JOpress3: 9:30pm On Oct 30, 2022
The Fitch or Fish reporters seems to be either detached, outdated and out-of-touch with the current political realities in Nigeria.

At best they are living in the past and analysing events as it was in 2015 -january 2022.

Op, please inform your Fake reporters to consult the INEC chairman for updates on the revolutionary 23,000 million registered activities recorded in INEC web portal between April up until August 2022 when Peter Obi dumped PDP.

E shock INEC chairman. E go Shock your Fitch/Fake reporters when they decide to update and present event as they occur in real time.

Until then....Fitch/Fish/Fake reporters are detached from reality
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by ysth(m): 9:16am On Oct 31, 2022
Kasssandra:


Obi is not going to win the middle belt. That is between pdp and apc. South South is heavily pdp.

Until labour party wakes up and sets up structures in these areas, nothing will happen.

Also, don't call me unintelligent. I don't lnow why most of you cannot disagree with someone without throwing abuse . I did not abuse you at all.
I laugh at you, pdp will win there gubernatorial election in states of south south and south east, but you see the presidential elections, LP is the overwhelming majority. Southerners are not stupid to leave voting for a southerner and vote a northerner, because this same north wont leave their brother and vote a southerner.
Re: "He Lacks Support In The Muslim North": 5 Reasons Peter Obi Will Lose In 2023 by Paretomaster1(m): 9:28am On Oct 31, 2022
Whoever think Obi will even come 2nd should better wake up from that dream...

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