Good morning fellow guest of this noble forum, I will be trying to clear some misconceptions especially on the North East in respect to 2023.

The North East has 6 states which includes
1. Adamawa
2. Bauchi
3. Borno
4. Gombe
5. Taraba
6. Yobe

A number of people think that Atiku being from the North East will give him an easy victory or a landslide but the reality is very far.

For some in the south that thinks that the north is made up of only Fulani and Hausa, you guys are completely wrong, and the north east is likely the most diverse region in Nigeria (I stand to be corrected if am wrong) for example just Borno state has over 40 different ethnicity, similar to state like Taraba where one local government can have over 6 to 10 different ethnicity, this makes the north east the most heterogeneous region in Nigeria.

Being from the South south I used to think we were the most diverse till I had to live in the North East.

The reality of Fulani are not the dominant in the north east, infact Fulani are only present in Adamawa state and very few normadic presence in Borno state.

Now on the 2023 election, Analysis of the chances of the presidential candidates;

1. HE Atiku Abubakar
An Adamawa Borno former president of Nigeria,
His greatest chance would be in Adamawa, Taraba (grounds of large PDP family) and Bauchi, however there is a recentl surge of PDP supporters in Borno state which was all thanks to the systematic way Atiku has played his cards, in Borno state, all their governors (elected) has been Kanuri, and the Southern Borno has been greatly neglected especially by the Zulum administration this gave Atiku the chance to creep into Borno via the Southern Borno, so all things being equal, with the way things stand now, if election holds today, Atiku would likely get up to 25% or more votes here.

2. HE Bola Tinubu
The former governor of Lagos state will be banking on two things in the north east, first is his choice of VP and also the hope that his party structure delivers.
Currently PDP holds three state and APC holds 3 states in the north east.
His greates chance will be in Yobe and Borno state as clearly these two states are dominated by Kanuri and unless bare a last minute changes, theses two states will likely go for Tinubu,
Furthermore Tinubu is projected to have a fair outing in Bauchi and Gombe because of party structure but will have a low or at best an average outing in Taraba and Adamawa.

3. HE Peter Obi
Former governor of Anambra State,
As things stand, if election is to be held today, Obi will have the least votes amongst the top contenders reasons being that there is no party structure or personal affiliation here, however Peter Obi can change his style and I can bet that north east is his surest place to gather votes in the core north.
Obi managers need to up their game in
Taraba, Bauchi, Gombe and Adamawa, also Borno state needs presence of Obi hopes to do well in the north East.

Currently as it stands, Tinubu and Atiku has an edge in the north east unless a last minute changes.

Kindly put in your thoughts and let these be based on facts on ground.
@lalastica
Mod

You refused to put religion into consideration


Religion plays a faster one in Taraba and Adamawa states.

greatiyk4u:
You refused to put religion into consideration


Religion plays a faster one in Taraba and Adamawa states.

True. Half of Christians will vote obi

The Hausa are Fulani's slaves na.