Winter could be diplomatic opportunity in Ukraine-Russia war, U.S. and Western officials say

Russia and Ukraine are most likely looking to the slower tempo of battle this winter as a time to re-set and re-fit their forces to be ready for a spring offensive.


Some U.S. and Western officials increasingly believe that neither side can achieve all of their goals in the Ukraine war and are eyeing the expected winter slowdown in fighting as an opportunity for diplomacy to begin between Russia and Ukraine, say officials familiar with the matter.

Western defense officials question Ukraine’s ability to remove Russian troops completely from occupied areas, and if military operations on the ground stabilize over the winter that could underline that neither side is likely to achieve its goal of controlling the whole country, the officials said. They spoke on condition of anonymity because they are not authorized to speak publicly on matters of diplomacy.

“In the winter everything slows down,” said a Western official with direct knowledge of military operations. “The potential for talks, we would like to see that happening.”

The official pointed to a statement by Russia’s ambassador to the U.K. last week about the potential for negotiations as possible “messaging” toward a diplomatic path.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan made a surprise visit to Kyiv last week, where he met with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and top Ukrainian officials. The White House National Security Council said the meetings were to “underscore the United States’ steadfast support to Ukraine and its people.” But two people familiar with the meetings and a Ukrainian government official said Sullivan did broach the idea of how this conflict ends and whether it could include a diplomatic solution. “He was testing the waters a bit,” said one person familiar with the meetings.


The Ukrainian official said that during his meetings with Zelenskyy’s government, Sullivan raised the need for a diplomatic resolution to the war and made the point that Ukraine’s leverage would be strengthened — not weakened — if it expressed openness to ultimately negotiating with the Russians.

The official said that Sullivan had not tried to pressure Ukraine to enter into negotiations immediately or to take any specific steps. Instead, the official said, Sullivan expressed the view that Ukraine would able to maintain the support of Western allies better if it is perceived as being willing to reach an end to the conflict through diplomacy.

According to the Ukrainian official, Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine had pushed for diplomacy with Russia in the initial months of the war and only took talks with Putin off the table following documented atrocities and alleged war crimes that the official said had made talks with Moscow in the near term unpalatable to the Ukrainian public.


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