Victoronah1:
Okowa is igbo. Why would an Igbo vote Okowa for vice president, while they could vote and win the presidency itself

Penguin2:
I will try to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. And when you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closely behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot of Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

garfield1:


Anioma will vote okowa firzt

Kyase:


All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

garfield1:


Datti and okupe are political nonentities in their states,they dont have any electoral value,no one knows them.okowa dominates delta politics,has a stranglehold on rigging.tpu saw how he defeated ibori.atiku is winning aks not because of udom but because the people prefer pdp.they are not very receptive of obi.can't you see the way people in rivers and Edo are dying for obi?

bdon123:

Cant wait for 2023

Kyase:


All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

Victoronah1:
while would anioma vote Okowa, while they have Peter obi at a better position

Penguin2:


Can you make your analysis without reference to rigging?

And talking about Okowa winning Ibori in Delta, when did Okowa and Ibori fall out? Was it not during the PDP primaries of this year? Were Okowa and Ibori in different camps in 2019?

Try to always get your facts right na; not just saying whatever you think will buttress your pointless point.

garfield1:


Okowa is from anioma,he will develop anioma first before any other place while obi will focus on anambra before the other parts of IBO land.okowa as gov did 50% projects in anioma

Penguin2:
I will try to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. And when you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closely behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot of Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Penguin2:
I will try to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. And when you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closely behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot of Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.

Nlfpmod
Mynd44
Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Kyase:


All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

Penguin2:


I agree with you that Atiku is now restricted to NE & NW.

But about Obi winning North Central, I disagree.

Who do you think will come second in Nasarawa? Who do you think will come second in Kogi? With both states having above 40% population of Christians, don’t be surprised to see Obi pull an upset in both states after Atiku and Tinubu have divided Muslim votes.

The only two states Obi might not perform well in the North Central are Kwara and Niger.

Kwara because it is predominantly Yoruba and they are likely to vote majorly for Tinubu. Now, with Saraki dynasty still very much alive, I concede that Saraki will help Atiku come second in Kwara while Obi comes third.

Then in Niger because they are Muslims and I really don’t know who is stronger in the state between Atiku and Tinubu.

Sum these percentages together and you’d realize that Obi is winning North Central.

Again, this is devoid of emotions but empirical postulations.

ybn1306:


Unfortunately religion alone cannot decide who wins NC. Several Christians in the Christian north will vote Atiku. Apart from Benue and Plateau, the muslim population in other NC states even with that of Christians

OnyeAshuaUru:

Tinubu BATstards wish Atiku wins some states in the SouthSouth. Note that this is just their mere wish and has nothing to do with situation on the ground.
This also has nothing to do with love for Atiku.
It's actually just the only way they can propagate their delusion that Peter Obi's road to Aso Villa is not as bright as pollsters say it is.

00FFT00:


Second to who in SS, Tinubu?.

Paulheyman:


If only you guys can allow them, make a joke of themselves and Lord emilokan. Two months to the end of their permutations.

The only reason obi stands a chance is because
1) Nigerians are fed up with APC and PDP
2) Atiku, kwankwaso and Tinubu are all contesting (this takes precedence): The so called kano, Kaduna and kastina votes are divided amongst three Muslim, one being less Muslim than the other. Moreover the north needs power
3) Mu-Mu ticket: Christians in both southwest and north are scared of dying. Remember the song "peter Obi will save us"
4) Obi's character: Dude stands out amongst the two thieves
5i) All supporters of APC are counting on rigging which is of the old order to win: Most people felt Jonathan was gonna rig and win, so they didn't vote and he lost
5ii) BVAS: APC senators are already crying on this

Kyase:


All these talks will be tested and confirmed by march 2023
Obi won't come second in SW either

First in SE and MAYBE second in SS
He won't smell second anywhere again

Aiel123:

No way PO will surpass APC in SS.

Kyase:

He may

mycar:
Good analysis but Obi is winning not because of anything but he is the most vibrant of all.

kingmaster2009:
All these newspaper stands analysis makes me marvel ....because I dont know what Obi rely on except for religion and tribal politcs....and when he started playing his tribal politics a a an average Nyamiri do in the southeast ....then some other politicians also follow suite....

Truth is bittered, die is cast ...Obi has a slim chance of winning this election among other 2 popular contestants.

I can assure that he cannot win any of the northern state....

Penguin2:
I will try to be as concise and straight to the point as possible….

As the 2023 elections approach, every supporter of the frontline candidates believes his candidate will win but only a few are able to practically, logically and empirically demonstrate their candidate’s road to victory.

But because I, and most other Obi supporters, am not in that category, I bring you Obi’s realistic and unexaggerated path to victory.

First, of all the 4 frontline candidates, Obi is the only one not contesting his region of Southeast with anyone. And when you consider the fact that the voting pattern of the Southeast and Southsouth has always almost been the same since the 60s, plus the results of several polls already conducted by different bodies, and with facts on ground in the different streets of the Southsouth region, you will agree that Obi is not contesting Southeast and Southsouth with anyone.

In the Southwest, different results of several polls, and facts from the streets of Southwest indicate that Obi is closely behind Tinubu in contest of votes of the region. Even with 2 sitting PDP governors in the region, Atiku seems to be unsurprisingly out of contest for the region’s votes. And even if he ends up garnering votes from the region, the votes he would garner might be too insignificant to be consequential.

In the North Central, even the oppositions have accepted that Obi will win Benue, Plateau and Abuja. He’s also expected to come second in Nasarawa and Kogi. A summation of these will give him victory as the overall winner of the North Central.

In the Northwest, Obi would not be expecting much here except from Southern Kaduna, Southern Kebbi and some votes from the brothers and sisters of Datti Baba-Ahmed in Zaria (yes, we are not expecting much from Datti).

In the Northeast, Obi is not expecting much, just like Northwest, but might do better here than in Northwest. With good showing, or even outright victory, expected in Taraba, then votes from Adamawa Christians, Southern Gombe, Southern Borno and Southern Bauchi, Obi will not do badly in this region.

In conclusion, I want you to realize that Atiku is contesting his Northeast region with Tinubu and even Kwankwaso and Obi. Because Borno and Yobe seem to be gone with Shettima while Obi is likely to take the votes of most Christians in the region while Kwankwaso is not bereft of supporters in the region as well. If anything, Kwankwaso’s outing in Maiduguri was so threatening that Borno government had to seal NNPP office until public outcry made them reverse the decision.

Similarly, Kwankwaso is contesting Northwest with Atiku and Tinubu. It is unarguably a three horse race in this region with none of them sure of victory in the region yet.

In the same vein, Tinubu is contesting Southwest with Obi as results of several polls have shown and as people on ground in the Southwest can testify. If anything, the Muslim Muslim ticket of Tinubu seems to have turned off a lot of Southwest Christians who would have ordinarily voted for him.

But not so with Obi; almost all of the candidates agrees that campaigning in the Southeast is a waste of time and resources because the region is gone with Obi; closely followed by Southsouth.

So, there you have it. Everything I’ve said here is verifiable facts devoid of emotions and exaggerations. And when you have digested it, you would be seeing Peter Obi’s victory staring at you in the face.

Meanwhile, I’d appreciate if respondents stick to countering my position with superior facts and postulation rather than degenerating into throwing illogical tantrums and insults.

Danke!

Penguin is a bird of reason.


Garfield1
Kyase
Tinubuadvocate
Ihordspy
Solvertongue
PandoraObi
NigeriaIsGreat
Okoroawusa
Tinsel
Moh247

Paulheyman:


If only you guys can allow them, make a joke of themselves and Lord emilokan. Two months to the end of their permutations.

The only reason obi stands a chance is because
1) Nigerians are fed up with APC and PDP
2) Atiku, kwankwaso and Tinubu are all contesting (this takes precedence): The so called kano, Kaduna and kastina votes are divided amongst three Muslim, one being less Muslim than the other. Moreover the north needs power
3) Mu-Mu ticket: Christians in both southwest and north are scared of dying. Remember the song "peter Obi will save us"
4) Obi's character: Dude stands out amongst the two thieves
5i) All supporters of APC are counting on rigging which is of the old order to win: Most people felt Jonathan was gonna rig and win, so they didn't vote and he lost
5ii) BVAS: APC senators are already crying on this

obaaderemi:
Have you forgotten Obasanjo defeated Ojukwu in the East?

aspher:


He'll win SS and NC inclusive. I'll gladly wager on that. He'll come second in SW. Everything the OP said is probable, especially the religion factor. No one knows if Kwankwaso would drop out from the race, else BAT would have performed reasonably well in NW.