A former Secretary General of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Anthony Sani, in this interview speaks on the 2023 general election, likely voting pattern in the presidential poll, and who is likely to emerge as the next president. He also shares his thoughts on the deployment of some technological advancements by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), among other issues. Excerpts:

With the emergence of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Bola Tinubu, and Peter Obi as top contenders for the presidency in 2023, do you envisage voting along regional lines and what does it portend for the country?

Let me say that with the big three from the former three regions as presidential candidates, it is easy to conclude that the elections will take regional patterns. But I do not believe such will happen and there are reasons for that. First, the North may be political on issues most northerners share, but when it comes to partisan politics, the North does not speak with one voice.

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You will recall that Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) and United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC) were led by Sir Ahmadu Bello, Mallam Aminu Kano and Joseph Tarka, respectively, in the First Republic in the North. During the Second Republic, we had Alhaji Shehu Shagari of National Party of Nigeria (NPN) and Alhaji Waziri Ibrahim of Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) as well as Mallam Aminu Kano of Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

You will also recall that 14 Northern governors of All Progressives Congress (APC) caused the emergence of Bola Tinubu during the recent presidential primary of the party despite the presence of the Senate President, Ahmed Lawan, as a presidential aspirant.

The APC governors will ensure their preference prevails in the North during next year’s elections against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar whose Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has only five governors in the region and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which does not have any. From reports I read, I am not sure the governors of Ebonyi and Imo states will do anti-party by supporting Peter Obi of Labour Party. What is more, the ICT which has helped in no small measure to overcome time and distance has empowered some youths, many of whom are hankering for some shift of power to the younger generation hence the national attention attracted by Peter Obi, albeit for another day and not for next year.

A section of Nigerians has expressed reservations about the ages of some of the top runners for the presidency. Do you think that age should be a factor?


I want to say that age should not be a factor, considering the fact that there were many governors under 50 in 1999 but there was nothing spectacular in their performance. President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden are in their seventies. Mrs. Nansi Pelosi, the speaker of the United State House of Representatives is also old. Ronald Reagan courted Americans for over 12 years and when he finally became president, he made America feel young again with promise of glory days ahead. What is more, there is this provision of ‘Not Too Young To Run Law’ meant to encourage youths in politics. The youths should therefore come together and make their impact felt in the political cockpit instead of expecting power through affirmative action.


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Among the presidential candidates, who do you think has what it takes to tackle the situation in Nigeria and change things for the better?

All of the leading candidates can deliver on the promise of democracy with commitment and determination. The challenge is never about who is best. This is because the best are not necessarily elected. Sometimes, leaders are elected by those who do not come out to vote. What matters most is electability of the party and its candidate. Though I am not a psychologist, I would hazard some forecast.

Because Southern governors and their sociocultural platforms and Middle Belt Forum have resolved to vote only candidates from the South, it means the votes in the South will be shared by candidates from the South, largely between Tinubu of APC and Obi of Labour Party. And because Obi defected from PDP with his followers, he has weakened PDP in the South. Moreover, Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike’s G5 has helped in no small measure to eviscerate the PDP in the South and Benue State; all these to the chagrin of Atiku.

The 14 APC governors in the North, who caused the emergence of Tinubu would not let go of APC’s victory in the North. What is more, former governor Rabiu Kwankwaso, who defected from PDP with his supporters, has weakened PDP in the North substantially to the chagrin of Atiku, whose party has only five states in the North. And when you consider reports that the Labour Party has not fielded candidates in some states due to capacity, then you would hardly avoid the conclusion that the electability favours Tinubu.

What is your take on the controversy surrounding the issue of debates ahead of the general election; should candidates be compelled to attend debates?

Debates are good because they help to enable people to know more about the candidates. But debates alone do not produce good leaders or cause candidates to win elections. This is because not all good debaters win elections or are good leaders. Therefore, there is no need to make debates compulsory for candidates.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has said it is going to deploy Biometric Voters Accreditation System (BVAS) for the elections and undertake electronic transmission of results but the APC has continued to express reservations over these. Do you think Nigeria is ready for electronic transmission of election results?

Electronic voting and transmission of results are what most Nigerians want in order to prevent snatching of ballot boxes, ballot box stuffing and thumb printing of ballot papers. What becomes the issue of concern is network coverage needed for the use of BVAS and transmission of results. People wonder how INEC will be able to use BVAS and transmit the results electronically in areas or communities without network coverage. That is the fear.

What are the issues that the North should be presenting to the candidates ahead of the elections?

Nigeria can be likened to a river being fed by tributaries and when one tributary is poisoned, the whole river is contaminated. So, what happens to the North or South would eventually happen to the nation as a whole. The issue which the North would expect the presidential candidates to address is to improve security from where the current administration stops.

This is because without security, no meaningful socioeconomic development can take place. Corruption which steals our collective empowerment, opportunity and future should not be allowed a field day in the polity, while efforts at diversifying the economy should continue. The phenomenal issue of out-of-school children should be confronted seriously. This is because apart from the fear that the dropouts will be terrorists tomorrow, education is about the only instrument of empowerment for fair competition in the mechanism of community living.

What is the significance of the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF)-championed parley with presidential candidates and do you think that it achieved anything?

The parley with select presidential candidates was not by Arewa Consultative Forum alone, but by the Joint Committee of Northern platforms like Arewa Consultative Forum, Northern Elders Forum and Sir Ahmadu Bello Memorial Foundation, among others for the express purpose of seeking to know what the candidates are offering. We interacted and had some ideas of what the candidates stand for and promote for the country which was the essence.

What is your take on the violence that has characterized the campaigns so far and what should be done to salvage the situation?

Democracy is not a bullfight but a contest of ideas and reasons. Politicians should tame their supporters, while security personnel should be up and doing and make sure that they tackle those that perpetrate violence.

With the desperation of politicians, can President Buhari fulfill his promise of delivering free and fair elections to Nigerians in 2023?

Yes, the president who has vowed to deliver on the promise of democracy is expected to go as far as his efforts can go and deliver on such a promise. Where there is the will, there would be the way.

Are you comfortable with the campaign issues being put forward by the leading presidential candidates?

The presidential candidates are trying to supplant politics of issues with politics of identity, which seeks to promote cleavages of the nation along ethnic lines. This is a good development. I pray they would be more specific on how best they hope to address the issues of concern to the people. Promises should be realistic. This is because some promises are too good to be true.

https://independent.ng/why-pdp-will-struggle-in-the-presidential-election-sani/

TINUBU will convincingly win the coming election and succeed Muhammad Buhari


This is a known fact awaiting

Every reasonable person knows that Tinubu would win this election.

Ashiwaju Jagaban

"The APC governors will ensure their preference prevails in the North during next year’s elections against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar whose Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has only five governors in the region and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), which does not have any."

"The 14 APC governors in the North, who caused the emergence of Tinubu would not let go of APC’s victory in the North"

This what we keep trying to tell nyamiri flat.heads, but the Osu outcast don't understand politics.. this a northern Christian that knows the reality on ground

They think politics is like peddling drugs

It's more than obvious that Tinubu will easily win this election

Ok

This man is talking as an APC supporter, both him and the governors he's hoping on to win the election for Tinubu have only one vote each. Evil men always planning on how to push their choices down the throat of the masses through the governors and other government officials.

A vote for Peter Obi is a vote for a better Nigeria.

May God help us. The hardship is so much on Nigerians.

APC administration has disappointed many of us. Just look at Insecurity, poverty, unemployment, inflation, killings, kidnapping, corruption etc.

You will recall that Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), Northern Elements Progressive Union (NEPU) and United Middle Belt Congress (UMBC) were led by Sir Ahmadu Bello, Mallam Aminu Kano and Joseph Tarka, respectively, in the First Republic in the North.


I don't like it when people are interviewed and they are making references to events of many decades ago. Most of those people have already kicked the bucket.

Today, although it's not completely reliable, you can use what happens on the internet to have an idea of how Nigerians will vote.

On Facebook, go to BBC News Hausa, BBC News Igbo, BBC New Pidgin, and BBC News Yoruba to have an idea of how Nigerians will vote.

INEC should just make this election free, fair and credible. Let God perfect the rest.

Betanaija42moro:
A vote for Peter Obi is a vote for a better Nigeria.

May God help us. The hardship is so much on Nigerians.

APC administration has disappointed many of us. Just look at Insecurity, poverty, unemployment, inflation, killings, kidnapping, corruption etc.

God will never allow those who brought the hardship on Nigeria in PDP back to rule us. Peter Obi should carry his hardship to biafra land. We don't want bad luck in Nigeria anymore. Tinubu is the only tested and passed hand we have now.

From all indications.. tinubu will win convincingly

NigeriaIsGreat:
TINUBU will convincingly win the coming election and succeed Muhammad Buhari


This is a known fact awaiting

100% sure, BAT is the next president

BeardGangJnr1:
From all indications.. tinubu will win convincingly

Who no know before should listen now, BAT is unstoppable

FrancescoFarino:
Ashiwaju Jagaban

Jagaban of Africa, on your mandate we shall stand

This is based on his gueses.
He said it himself.

Babachiir Lawal also hazarded his own guesses earlier.

Atedo Peterside too has come out with his guesses

Everyone is making his own conjectures based on his biases.

What is important is that Nigerians are allowed to exercise their freewill to chose between good and evil; Between hunger and starvation and prosperity; between peaceful coexistence, value for human life and daily killings and slaughtering of human beings like animals.

It is important that the so-called APC governors exercise their rights and allow the citizens of the their states to exercise theirs.

More important is even allowing the technology that guarantees peaceful, transparent and fair ballots to be deployed seamlessly.

From many assessments and reports in the media, it is the APC that is working against the deployment of the technology, which suggests a sinister plot being planned against the people of Nigeria.

The APC chairman openly castigated the deployment of the technology, just as the APC presidential candidate himself has openly called for INEC to stop the deployment.

Elections are existential issues. They determine people's livelihood and well-being.

Nobody should be forced to make choices that are not in congruent with his own realities.

The people of the north, especially the north west, where the socalled northern APC governors have been presiding, have been left helpless and hapless in the last 7 years.

They practically abandoned them to their fate. Governors upon governors have called for the citizens to take arms to protect themselves, practically saying that they cannot protect their citizens.

In reality, that is not the party that the citizens would want to return to office - except they are coerced.

In reality, the entire Nigerian people would want to live in a single digit inflation economy.

They would want to live in a country with less than 10% unemployment and less debt overhang with less fiscal burden.

Nigerians want to send their children and wards to school to give them better future.

Majority of Nigerians have seen the period of plenty and are currently experiencing the period of poverty, penury, violence, kidnappings, massive killings and deaths of many kinds and UTTER EVIL.

Majority of Nigerians are not that stupid.

These are not the matter to be determined by the so-called 14 northern governors.

They are matters that bother on people choosing GOOD above EVIL.

Aside the Peter Obi factor, Atiku lost the election the day G5 governors abandoned him. Atiku has Ayu to blame for his failure in the election next year.

Any intelligent person already knows that Peter Obi is the next president of Nigeria. All those urchins trying to foist an old criminal and drug lord like Tinubu on Nigerians will surely be put to shame.