The electoral law says a candidate must score at least 25% of the vote in at least 24[ out of 36 states. Peter Obi is likely to get 25% in only 17 states. My analysis. Please add yours if you disagree.

States where he cannot get 25%
oyo
niger
bauchi
borno
ondo
ekiti
yobe
gombe
kwara
jigawa
ogun
kaduna
osun
kano
sokoto
katsina
zamfara
kebbi
kogi
Total 19

States where he can get 25% and above
rivers
imo
edo
adamawa
nasarawa
akwa ibom
abia
anambra
enugu
bayelsa
lagos
benue
plateau
cross river
taraba
delta
ebonyi
Total 17
Grand Total 36

He is 7 states short. How can he make it up. It will be a huge task.

Rerun is instant win for Obi

PureMe01:
Rerun is instant win for Obi

It will never go to re-run. The two major candidates will attain the necessary spread. Obi will not

Where is FCT in your analysis?Anyway, Obi will get 25% in all SW states Kaduna and Kogi.

Apart from geographical spread,the winner must also secure the highest numbers of vote.Both conditions must be fulfilled.

Ok. lets add FCT and give it to Obi. He is still 6 states short. I don't agree with the poster who said he can get 25% in all SW states. He is only known in mainly the SW state capitals. Take Oyo state for instance, outside of Ibadan, where can he get any votes. I think only Lagos is in play for him in the SW.

Forget any analysis Just having a common sense will tell you Obi will not win.

Plus10:
Apart from geographical spread,the winner must also secure the highest numbers of vote.Both conditions must be fulfilled.

Yes oh. And by not scoring well in the high population states like Kano & Katsina, it becomes very difficult to see how he can get the highest number of votes.

When I see posts that say Peter Obi will win hands down, I scratch my head and wonder how it will happen.

E don do? We don hear.

The next thing is that one of the partisan Moderators will send this nonsense to frontage

dustmalik:

It will never go to re-run. The two major candidates will attain the necessary spread. Obi will not

INEC chairman,I hear you

MadamExcellency:
E don do? We don hear.

The next thing is that one of the partisan Moderators will send this nonsense to frontage

Sorry, no vex. I don shut up.

It’s not far again, let’s wait and see

dustmalik:

It will never go to re-run. The two major candidates will attain the necessary spread. Obi will not

This is not geographical spread only, INEC consider the candidate with the highest number of votes, and the candidate with geographical spread.These are the two candidates that are qualify for a rerun.

"From he has no structure" now "he can win 17 remaining 7"

You go dey alright las las

axponline:


Yes oh. And by not scoring well in the high population states like Kano & Katsina, it becomes very difficult to see how he can get the highest number of votes.

When I see posts that say Peter Obi will win hands down, I scratch my head and wonder how it will happen.

Northern votes, esp NW and NE will be shared heavily by at least 3 candidates. The net effect will not be significant for any candidate.

Moreover, lets see how some of these states will manufacture the "usual" high figures when BVAS is used this time around (no incidence forms etc).

February is next month

after4:
"From he has no structure" now "he can win 17 remaining 7"

You go dey alright las las

I did not say he can win 17. I said he can get 25% or more in 17 states.

axponline:
The electoral law says a candidate must score at least 25% of the vote in at least 24[ out of 36 states. Peter Obi is likely to get 25% in only 17 states. My analysis. Please add yours if you disagree.

States where he cannot get 25%
oyo
niger
bauchi
borno
ondo
ekiti
yobe
gombe
kwara
jigawa
ogun
kaduna
osun
kano
sokoto
katsina
zamfara
kebbi
kogi
Total 19

States where he can get 25% and above
rivers
imo
edo
adamawa
nasarawa
akwa ibom
abia
anambra
enugu
bayelsa
lagos
benue
plateau
cross river
taraba
delta
ebonyi
Total 17
Grand Total 36

He is 7 states short. How can he make it up. It will be a huge task.

Very fair with your analysis.

He can't even get the highest number of votes cast talk more of the spread.

He knows and we know too that he won't win.

Jagaban is coming

nameo:


Northern votes, esp NW and NE will be shared heavily by at least 3 candidates. The net effect will not be significant for any candidate.

Moreover, lets see how some of these states will manufacture the "usual" high figures when BVAS is used this time around (no incidence forms etc).

February is next month

Manufacture figure you say?

Go and check the total number of votes in osun state and kindly compare it to the last state election.

That's your reply.

Obaofaba:


Very fair with your analysis.

He can't even get the highest number of votes cast talk more of the spread.

He knows and we know too that he won't win.

Jagaban is coming

You mean the cocaine addict is coming, he isn't done licking a microphone yet.

axponline:


Yes oh. And by not scoring well in the high population states like Kano & Katsina, it becomes very difficult to see how he can get the highest number of votes.

When I see posts that say Peter Obi will win hands down, I scratch my head and wonder how it will happen.

Unlike 2015 and 2019 elections,the 3ks states will be shared by apc,pdp,nnpp and partly LP.Don't expect any block votes from those states.

axponline:


Yes oh. And by not scoring well in the high population states like Kano & Katsina, it becomes very difficult to see how he can get the highest number of votes.

When I see posts that say Peter Obi will win hands down, I scratch my head and wonder how it will happen.

If he won’t win, why you Dey open thread to discuss the topic?

after4:
"From he has no structure" now "he can win 17 remaining 7"

You go dey alright las las

Ol0do who said he's wining 17 states?
Go back and read what the op said

You are fair with your analysis, but obi can't get 25% in Lagos. Do you know what 25% means? PDP will even do better than LP because existing structure of PDP. Many Igbos who will stay in Lagos to cast vote will vote for Tinubu especially those that have benefitted directly and indirectly through APC elected Igbo leaders.

Many Igbos will travel back to their villages to vote and majority of those igbos that remain will actually vote for Tinubu. Many Igbo leaders under APC or benefited from Tinubu are already working on that underground as it used to be on every election year in Lagos. Obi can't win Taraba either.

It is just noise to say obi will win Benue, with all the support obi is getting from Benue, he can only get 25%, he can't win it because APC candidate in that state is well loved. Wait for Tinubu to do his own campaign in Benue if you will not be laughing at that of obi. Outside south east, obi can't win; PDP will either win or APC, obi can only get 25% in strong places you put as win for obi outside south east

Plus10:
Where is FCT in your analysis?Anyway, Obi will get 25% in all SW states Kaduna and Kogi.

Your brain dey leak,nah your father go vote for Pandora criminal in Ogun state

axponline:
Ok. lets add FCT and give it to Obi. He is still 6 states short. I don't agree with the poster who said he can get 25% in all SW states. He is only known in mainly the SW state capitals. Take Oyo state for instance, outside of Ibadan, where can he get any votes. I think only Lagos is in play for him in the SW.

Can he even get 25% of Abeokuta South local government vote,note that Abeokuta South doesn't have any Village at all.

"From he been no edifice" now "he can win 17 remaining 7"You go dey alright las las

So, Check my profile if you need help with your dissertation, assignment, statement of purpose, thesis, or personal statement.

axponline:
The electoral law says a candidate must score at least 25% of the vote in at least 24[ out of 36 states. Peter Obi is likely to get 25% in only 17 states. My analysis. Please add yours if you disagree.

States where he cannot get 25%
oyo
niger
bauchi
borno
ondo
ekiti
yobe
gombe
kwara
jigawa
ogun
kaduna
osun
kano
sokoto
katsina
zamfara
kebbi
kogi
Total 19

States where he can get 25% and above
rivers
imo
edo
adamawa
nasarawa
akwa ibom
abia
anambra
enugu
bayelsa
lagos
benue
plateau
cross river
taraba
delta
ebonyi
Total 17
Grand Total 36

He is 7 states short. How can he make it up. It will be a huge task.

no candidate can get 25% in 24% state. Everyone is waiting for rerun

dustmalik:

It will never go to re-run. The two major candidates will attain the necessary spread. Obi will not

are you drunk? How?
List the states where Tinubu and Atiku can get 25% realistically

He will get 25% in
Kaduna
Oyo
Gombe
Ogun
Ekiti
Bauchi
FcT

Reverse the question,can the kriminal theifnybu get 25 percent in 34 state.first he won't get even 10 percent in all ss/se state.

Rapuru14:
Indeed many are mad, only few are roaming!

But Nairaland hosts many of them

Mark this: "NOTHING WILL STOP OBI FROM WINNING; MASSIVELY

you just display the symptoms of madness with this nonsense