As 2023 elections approach, campaigns have taken an interesting dimension.......

It has been a tit for tat affair; crowd for crowd, public address for public address of different interest groups and then the debates and dodging of debates........

But what I believe most people refuse to take into consider is the following.

Currently APC has 21 sitting governors, PDP has 14 (that includes the G5 integrity group of Rivers, Abia, Enugu, Oyo and Benue state, so technically PDP has just 9), APGA has one, Anambra.....

Given the current dynamics, how does labour party propose to win with it candidates, popular and amiable as they are?

The law demands that a winner must have the highest number of votes as well as win 2/3 of the total states on ground (which means, he must win in 24 states), otherwise the first runnerup, will do a rerun with the first position winner.......

So which state is labour party expecting/projecting to win? All 36 states? That's a fantastic and audacious dream.....

Tinubu's party already have 21 states under their belt, he just needs three hard working governors that will make the markup.........Atiku is just busy underestimating wike and how much some PDP stalwarts really despise the way he emerged as flagbearer, violating the silent North-South zoning dichotomy of Party Chairmanship and Presidential flagbearer.

The highest thing that may happen, wike and the G5 may support Obi on the understanding that Obi will decamp back to PDP if he wins, that automatically spoil Atiku's chances and absolves wike of any past or future sin of anti-party activities.......

People also forget that all it took to unseat the PDP from power in 2015 general elections was the decamping of 5 sitting governors,
Governors Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano, Aliyu Wamakko of Sokoto, Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara, Murtala Nyako of Adamawa and Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers States, that joined the APC after staging a walk out on the PDP national convention in Abuja........

A walkout, ironically that was hailed and saluted by Atiku, the current PDP Presidential flagbearer!

In his own words, paying tribute to the govenors on the decamping of the 5 PDP governors in 2015,

“They chose the difficult path, rather than the easy way out,”

“We must be open and transparent, not like the PDP, we must avoid winner takes all, greed, arrogance, impunity and corruption, ”.

If it took 5 decampee governors to turn the tide and remove a sitting president, it can definitely take 5 to take the sails out of the wind of a potential candidate like Atiku, who doesn't even have the advantage of incumbency......


And then there is Alhaji Kwankwaso of the NNPP in the North! People believe he is a pushover but refuse to appreciate that he is even more popular in the North than Atiku.........That makes him someone to think about, not necessarily as one who will win the Presidential election but will impact on the expected quota of votes a potential winner will get from the North!!

So in my opinion, unpopular as it may be, devoid of any sentiments for my own kinsmen!! The election as it stand, based on the permutations and current dynamics of campaigns, the election is for the APC and tinubu to lose......

They have the Unique advantage and everything seems to be set for Tinubu to takeover from where Major General Muhammadu Buhari has stopped.....

That probably explains why the tinubu campaign don't bother attending debates, nor explaining the gaffes made by Tinubu at public events....


This is my unbiased take......feel free to leave yours, without religious sentiments, tribalism, hate speech, bigotry or rancour.....

Are you saying any party that doesn't have elected representatives cannot win election in Nigeria?

God1000:
Are you saying any party that doesn't have elected representatives cannot win election in Nigeria?

Not at all Sir! But you must understand something!!

The electoral battle for the office of presidency will take place at over 197,973 polling units across 774 local governments as recognised by the National assembly (forget all those LCDA's created in the south).

It will take a political party, with a high number of active members, with balanced influence, reputation and financial resources across all of those ward where the 197,000 plus polling units are located to have a fighting chance....

In Edo state, Peter Obi and the Labour party have won the hearts of the Edos, they are very popular in the Urban cities and have massive support amongst the elites and the youths, but in the rural areas, all they know is "broom people" and "Umbrella People".

If what I see of Labour party here is reflected across the entire country, then Obi is fighting a losing battle!

Vigorous door to door or mosquito campaign is not going on to change the narrative, Peter Obi campaign poster is scarce....it is candidates that are using Obi's picture to market their own candidature that's littered across the place.....

You have field campaign coordinators and deputy coordinators for local governments that don't even have PVCs, under the Labour Party here in Edo state.....

As at August last year, Labour Party in Edo state didn't have a chairman, it was someone who was the acting chairman that received Obi!!

You have Appointed Party Campaign coordinators for local governments that have never been to the local government in their lives and can't even speak the local dialect.......

It's like a free for all, where everybody just position themselves somewhere in anticipation of when campaign funds will flow, so they can eat their own share of share of National cake via elections!

They have a party here and support of the people, but Labour party here exists in name only and is just an empty shell......

If that is what exists across the country, how them wan take win election?

ehissi:


Not at all Sir! But you must understand something!!

The electoral battle for the office of presidency will take place at over 197,937 polling units across 774 local governments as recognised by the National assembly (forget all those LCDA's created in the south).

It will take a political party, with a high number of active members, with balanced influence, reputation and financial resources across all of those ward where the 197,000 plus polling units are located to have a fighting chance....

In Edo state, Peter Obi and the Labour party have won the hearts of the Edos, they are very popular in the Urban cities and have massive support amongst the elites and the youths, but in the rural areas, all they know is "broom people" and "Umbrella People".

If what I see of Labour party here is reflected across the entire country, then Obi is fighting a losing battle!

Vigorous door to door or mosquito campaign is not going on to change the narrative, Peter Obi campaign poster is scarce....it is candidates that are using Obi's picture to market their own candidature that's littered across the place.....

You have field campaign coordinators and deputy coordinators for local governments that don't even have PVCs, under the Labour Party here in Edo state.....

As at August last year, Labour Party in Edo state didn't have a chairman, it was someone who was the acting chairman that received Obi!!

You have Appointed Party Campaign coordinators for local governments that have never been to the local government in their lives and can't even speak the local dialect.......

It's like a free for all, where everybody just position themselves somewhere in anticipation of when campaign funds will flow, so they can eat their own share of share of National cake via elections!

They have a party here and support of the people, but Labour party here exists in name only and is just an empty shell......

If that is what exists across the country, how them wan take win election?

I understand your point, but this is how revolution starts.

You have spoken without sentiments and nothing but with the facts on ground �

And you counted for eg. Imo and Ebonyi in your APC imaginary 21 state? You people must get sense after this election no matter the outcome. The only state Tinubu is sure of getting is few state from South West. Don't forget the situation presently in Nigeria today is very much different from that 2015 when Buhari and APC deceived people with change. Hunger, insecurity especially Fulani herdsmen menace will determine the outcome of this election

ehissi:


Not at all Sir! But you must understand something!!

The electoral battle for the office of presidency will take place at over 197,937 polling units across 774 local governments as recognised by the National assembly (forget all those LCDA's created in the south).

It will take a political party, with a high number of active members, with balanced influence, reputation and financial resources across all of those ward where the 197,000 plus polling units are located to have a fighting chance....

In Edo state, Peter Obi and the Labour party have won the hearts of the Edos, they are very popular in the Urban cities and have massive support amongst the elites and the youths, but in the rural areas, all they know is "broom people" and "Umbrella People".

If what I see of Labour party here is reflected across the entire country, then Obi is fighting a losing battle!

Vigorous door to door or mosquito campaign is not going on to change the narrative, Peter Obi campaign poster is scarce....it is candidates that are using Obi's picture to market their own candidature that's littered across the place.....

You have field campaign coordinators and deputy coordinators for local governments that don't even have PVCs, under the Labour Party here in Edo state.....

As at August last year, Labour Party in Edo state didn't have a chairman, it was someone who was the acting chairman that received Obi!!

You have Appointed Party Campaign coordinators for local governments that have never been to the local government in their lives and can't even speak the local dialect.......

It's like a free for all, where everybody just position themselves somewhere in anticipation of when campaign funds will flow, so they can eat their own share of share of National cake via elections!

They have a party here and support of the people, but Labour party here exists in name only and is just an empty shell......

If that is what exists across the country, how them wan take win election?

So you are saying Nigerians can't make up their minds on who to vote abi? If you and other nigeriana keep voting because of party structure then how will Nigeria be good? Will you be voting for tinubu because he's the best candidate to fix nigeria or atiku or obi because they can also fix Nigeria? Or will you be voting because pdp and apc have the biggest everything?

izombie:
So you are saying Nigerians can't make up their minds on who to vote abi? If you and other nigeriana keep voting because of party structure then how will Nigeria be good? Will you be voting for tinubu because he's the best candidate to fix nigeria or atiku or obi because they can also fix Nigeria? Or will you be voting because pdp and apc have the biggest everything?

This is the challenge I have with people, sometimes their education and sentiments proves to be a hindrance in cutting right to the issue..........

A large majority of voters in my father's and mother's village in Edo, don't know Obasanjo, Yar adua, Atiku or tinubu let alone Peter Obi.....

When they vote, they don't even read, to even know what the name on the ballot paper represents....

What they know now, as of today that I am typing is broom people and Umbrella People, so when they look at the ballot paper or asking for help, all they will ask is, which one be Umbrella People or which one they broom for this paper, na that one I wan vote for ooh!!??

Are those the people that will vote for your Peter Obi?

What is labour party, with all the crowd that they Laboured to gather at airport road and ring road in benin city doing to change the narrative?......that is what I am tactically asking and you talking about who I will vote for.....?

Na Only my pvc wan decide who go be president!!?

Even lagos state that has one of the highest numbers of educated people with states like ekiti in the South west, as at late last year here, INEC said 1.7million PVCs are at their offices uncollected.......The same challenge exists with every election that's why in the 2015 elections, the APC Party rigorously focused their campaign on pushing people to go and collect their PVCs to vote for them, why is labour party not doing that?


What is labour party doing to change the narrative in favour of their candidates?

The battle has many fronts you are looking at crowds gathered in the Urban areas meanwhile na rural areas, with the largely uneducated that will be the tipping point in unbalancing the scales in every election including this one.

As I am talking to you, INEC has since raised alarms of cartels of locals buying up people PVCs in rural areas outright.....

The rumour I have heard, and I repeat it is just a rumor, is that parties are going to remote towns and offloading PVCs from voters in areas where they know their candidates of choice aren't popular to disenfranchise them from the electoral process.....

My question remains, what is labour party doing or better yet why is labour party doing nothing tangible to market their candidates against the next Presidential elections?

gratiaeo:
And you counted for eg. Imo and Ebonyi in your APC imaginary 21 state? You people must get sense after this election no matter the outcome. The only state Tinubu is sure of getting is few state from South West. Don't forget the situation presently in Nigeria today is very much different from that 2015 when Buhari and APC deceived people with change. Hunger, insecurity especially Fulani herdsmen menace will determine the outcome of this election

For your information, the number one bargaining chip for any successful election in any local community is security!!

And the governor is the chief security officer of the state....

He has the resources to change the climate from "security" to "insecurity".

When Tinubu was governor, Lagosians didn't really like him, especially his workers and they voted against him....

But he won, you know why? Any community that didn't support him, they use violence to make the too hostile for voting to take place......Datz all...

The first and last time I tried to vote in lagos, it was bullet that ended the electoral process, the ballot was stuffed by the AD and votes from the polling unit was invalidated in favour of Tinubu as the area was a PDP ground then?

Just pray that those governors don't pick that up from tinubu, except you are not allergic to bullets, na E you wait for polling booth when the matter ripe for where you wan vote.....

God1000:
I understand your point, but this is how revolution starts.

This was exactly what the field campaign coordinator of a local government in labour party told me before October, last year with a promise that Labour party will shock me.....

I even went so far to propose certain souvenirs and strategies they can use to spice up their campaign when it starts.....

That was last year, I have travelled a number of times round Edo state since then, I remain unshocked.......exactly what I told him will happen is already happening.

Every man positioning himself to kpakay national campaign cake when it passes in front of him........

I have personally entered markets dominated by igbos in edo state and disputed with Labour party coordinators on the readiness of their party before October last year, and all of them told me to wait till October when campaigns will start, less that 50days to the elections, everything I told them will happens has happened.....

Which leads me to prepare for one task, getting ready to congratulate the APC and their members and candidates on successfully winning the elections because labour party has the candidate and the vehicle (the party) to claim the presidency....

But that vehicle, no get engine oooooh.....

OP understands the issues. There isn't much more to add.