senatordave1:


Tinubu will have 25% in all northern states except maybe adamawa

Tinubu will have 25% in all northern states excluding adamawa, taraba , Benue and Jos in NE and NC. Most of their votes would go to either obi or atiku. All thanks to Muslim-Muslim ticket.

senatordave1:


There are many ways to vote.bvas can only stop overviting,it can't stop vote buying,agents from compromising,votes to be rejigged or voters being coerced

you think it's easy to buy many votes on election day? Lol

senatordave1:


In kwara

is kwara not majorly Yoruba?

Trollronaldo:
you think it's easy to buy many votes on election day? Lol

Oga,vote buying is now a normal thing.a lot of people are hungry

joyandfaith:


Tinubu will have 25% in all northern states excluding adamawa, taraba , Benue and Jos in NE and NC. Most of their votes would go to either obi or atiku. All thanks to Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Adamawa yes but not taraba.the two most popular christian politicians in taraba are now in apc snd on the ballot,thereby dividing Christian votes.most Muslims usually vote apc.

Apc is very strong in benue.the apc guber candidate is very popular and pdp is getting unpopular with factions.while obi will win,apc will get 25%.,remember,even buhari got 45% in benue.
In plateau,dariye has endorsed tinubu and he is popular in plateau central.the kanam emirate usually gives apc bloc votes.gov lalong is on the ballot in plateau south and he has underage voters in his shendam lga.he will deliver apc by any means possible.obi will likely win but tinubu will get his 25%.many dont really care about Muslim Muslim

Trollronaldo:
Let's do this analysis: this analysis is based on the fact of the realities on ground with minimal sentiment.
The realities posits that this election is going to be based on:
1. Tribe
2. Religion
3. Popularity of candidates instead of party.
4. Vote buying.
5. BVAS.

On this basis, these are the states that each candidates are mots likely going to get 25%:

1. Tinubu
Tinubu is well rooted in southwest and he's very popular in kwara, Niger. Northeast and northwest. However, he's popularity in northwest and northeast will be seriously waned by tribalism. He's opponents are equally as popular and they are from those regions. He's not going to perform will in Christian dominated states of northcentral like Plateau and Benue. While he's in the ruling party, Tinubu doesn't have what it takes to get the cult votes of Buhari in the north to beat Atiku.
Tinubu is most likely going to get 25% in the following states:

1. Lagos
2. Ogun
3. Osun
4. Ekiti
5.Oyo
6. Ondo
7. Kwara
8. Niger
9. Kaduna
10. Zamfara
11.Kebbi
12. Katsina
13. Jigawa
14. Kogi
15. Nasarawa
16. Yobe
17.Borno
18. Gombe
19. Abuja
20. Crossriver


2. Peter Obi
Peter Obi is extremely popular is southsouth, southeast and North Central with a substantial level of followership in southwest. He's also very popular amongst Christians and the youths for the past failures of other major parties. He's not accepted in northwest and northeast or states dominated by Muslims like Niger and Kwara. Based on these, these are the states that Peter Obi is likely to get 25%

1. Abia
2. Imo
3. Anambra
4.Enugu
5. Ebonyi
6. Rivers
7. Delta
8. Bayelsa
9. Edo
10. Crossriver
11. Akwa ibom
12. Lagos
13. Ogun
14. Oyo
15. Ondo
16. Taraba
17. Kaduna
18. Abuja
19. Nasarawa
20. Benue
21. Plateau

3. Atiku
Atiku is very popular in the whole of North, with some political footing in southsouth and southeast, however he won't be able to subdue ethnicity and the popularity of Peter Obi in these regions because of BVAS. Hence these are the states I am giving to Atiku.

1. Adamawa
2. Borno
3. Yobe
4. Gombe
5. Taraba
6. Bauchi
7. Kano
8. Sokoto
9. Kebbi
10. Zamfara
11. Jigawa
12. Katsina
13. Niger
14. Kwara
15. Nasarawa
16. Benue
17. Plateau
18. Delta
19. Bayelsa
20. Edo
21. Akwa Ibom

Thanks for reading, remember this is based on my personal unbiased opinion

So I don't see anyone of them getting this 25% prerequisite.

How much are you betting?

Apart from Lagos State, Tinubu will have more votes in South East than Obi in South West!


Obi no fit see 20,000 votes here in Ondo.

Trollronaldo:
is kwara not majorly Yoruba?

You were talking of sw

senatordave1:


Adamawa yes but not taraba.the two most popular christian politicians in taraba are now in apc snd on the ballot,thereby dividing Christian votes.most Muslims usually vote apc.

Apc is very strong in benue.the apc guber candidate is very popular and pdp is getting unpopular with factions.while obi will win,apc will get 25%.,remember,even buhari got 45% in benue.
In plateau,dariye has endorsed tinubu and he is popular in plateau central.the kanam emirate usually gives apc bloc votes.gov lalong is on the ballot in plateau south and he has underage voters in his shendam lga.he will deliver apc by any means possible.obi will likely win but tinubu will get his 25%.many dont really care about Muslim Muslim

I understand you. Atiku would drags votes with Tinubu among muslims in those 4 states. Insecurity due to islamic terrorism is the reason. Shettima is not a good brand among Northern Christians. Even southern Christians with Osinbajo in ticket sold Buhari to Northern Christians as a good man.

Sammy07:



How much are you betting?

Apart from Lagos State, Tinubu will have more votes in South East than Obi in South West!


Obi no fit see 20,000 votes here in Ondo.

I am from southwest but I don't think Tinubu will do that. There's no point betting on a faceless forum.

I am telling you this realistically.

senatordave1:


Oga,vote buying is now a normal thing.a lot of people are hungry

the effect vote buying will have will be inconsequential to drastically change the result its not easy to buy many votes within a space of 24hrs.
There will be vote buying but vote buying is not the most effective way to rig elections, it's harder than you think with so much challenges. There's no amount of vote buying that can make Tinubu get 25% in ebonyi

Trollronaldo:
the effect vote buying will have will be inconsequential to drastically change the result its not easy to buy many votes within a space of 24hrs.
There will be vote buying but vote buying is not the most effective way to rig elections, it's harder than you think with so much challenges. There's no amount of vote buying that can make Tinubu get 25% in ebonyi

Madam abi oga,vote buying is not really rigging afterall you are not forcing people.poverty rate in ebonyi is very high so many will accept.again,umahi is very popular in ebonyi south so many of those voting him will vote apc all through.
Finally,umahi is ruthless and violent.he will coerce people to vote apc.you saw what he did to lp candidate Linus okorie and how he treats opposition

senatordave1:


Madam abi oga,vote buying is not really rigging afterall you are not forcing people.poverty rate in ebonyi is very high so many will accept.again,umahi is very popular in ebonyi south so many of those voting him will vote apc all through.
Finally,umahi is ruthless and violent.he will coerce people to vote apc.you saw what he did to lp candidate Linus okorie and how he treats opposition

So you think vote buying is as simple as just approaching people and giving them money to vote?

Nope, it's not as straightforward dude, wake up

joyandfaith:


I understand you. Atiku would drags votes with Tinubu among muslims in those 4 states. Insecurity due to islamic terrorism is the reason. Shettima is not a good brand among Northern muslims. Even southern Christians with Osinbajo in ticket sold Buhari to Northern Christians as a good man.

These reasons are weak.shettima appeals to most northern Muslims.most northern Muslims are fanatics and radicals so they wi prefer Muslim Muslim and shettima.they dislike atiku's liberal attitude.osibanjo would not have sold in core north.many Muslims who who would have preferred power remaining in the north will manage mm ticket as a stop gap measure.
If you check Bantu polls,radical Muslims in niger,kaduna,katsina prefer tinubu while those in nasarawa,fct,Adamawa prefer atiku.again,muslins in those 4 states are very loyal to buhari and apc and with buhari campaigning for tinubu, it is swinging to him..
The biggest factor in elections has always been party structure and apc is string enough to get 25% in those states

Trollronaldo:
I am from southwest but I don't think Tinubu will do that. There's no point betting on a faceless forum.

I am telling you this realistically.

I'm from South West, Ondo in particular

Every week, I'm always in Osun, Kwara, Ekiti and Oyo to buy goods.
I can tell you where Obi billboards are.

Obi can't have 20k votes in these states

senatordave1:


Not true.yorubas don't care about religion

you are obviously living in self denial.

The shock of Obi's victory would be very interesting

Trollronaldo:
So you think vote buying is as simple as just approaching people and giving them money to vote?

Nope, it's not as straightforward dude, wake up

The problem with you and most obidients us that you guys are novices,you know little about elections.you see normal things in elections as strange so you argue blindly.
Listen,in every polling unit,apc and pdp always budget at least 100k to buy votes,inec and even security agencies.this has been happening since 1999.sometimes they share food,gifts.so wake up,obi is against it

senatordave1:


The problem with you and most obidients us that you guys are novices,you know little about elections.you see normal things in elections as strange so you argue blindly.
Listen,in every polling unit,apc and pdp always budget at least 100k to buy votes,inec and even security agencies.this has been happening since 1999.sometimes they share food,gifts.so wake up,obi is against it

I am not Obidient dude. Obi is not my candidate.
I am telling you fact

Sammy07:


I'm from South West, Ondo in particular

Every week, I'm always in Osun, Kwara, Ekiti and Oyo to buy goods.
I can tell you where Obi billboards are.

Obi can't have 20k votes in these states

if this makes you happy, I won't stop your joy this morning

Mynd44:
For Tinubu
Add: Kano
Plateau
Sokoto
Ebonyi
Edo


For Atiku
Add
Osun and Plateau

For Obi
Remove
Taraba
Ogun
Oyo
Ondo
Kaduna
Nasarawa

Sounds more sentimental.

How can you add Ebonyi for Tinubu, and then remove Ogun, Kaduna and Nasarawa from Peter Obi's?

Peter Obi will come second in most SW states, even before Atiku.

And for the records, Atiku will come second in all SE/SS states.

If Everything remains squared, and Bvas working, Tinubu won't see 25% in any SE and SS state. Mark it somewhere.

It's February 25, be ready to check the dashboard.

Trollronaldo:
I am not Obidient dude. Obi is not my candidate.
I am telling you fact

Please,before arguing go and ask any agent

unclejb2:
you are obviously living in self denial.

The shock of Obi's victory would be very interesting

He will fail

Aufbauh:


We don't just dream. Our dreams come to reality cos we know how to interpret and operate them.

I've predicted Nigeria presidential election since 1999 and it hasn't failed.

Rochas Okorocha was popular and have goodwill with the people, yet he didn't give Buhari the 25% and you are banking on the killer governor and Umeahi to deliver 25% to Tinubu?

Stop hallucinating

Trollronaldo:
if this makes you happy, I won't stop your joy this morning

Lol, that's the truth sir.

Aufbauh:
It's only Tinubu that will satisfy that requirement.

Obi:
All the five SE states = 5
All the SS states = 6
SW states = at most 3
NC states= 3
NE states= 0
NW states = 1
Total = 18 states

Atiku
SE states = 0
SS states = at most 3
SW states = at most 3
NC states = at most 4
NE states = at most 4
NW states = at most 4

Total = 18 States

Tinubu
SE states = 2
SS states = 6
SW states= 6
NC states = 6
NE states = at least 4
NW states = 7

Total = 31 states

Let me give you some underlying fact:

1. Any zone/state that Obi becomes more powerful then Atiku becomes weaker and vice versa.

2. Any state in the core north that Atiku did not achieved 40% in 2019 will be practically impossible for Obi to get 25%.

3.:No sitting Governor's party has gone below second position in the presidential election in his state. So the least the APC could get in it controlled state is 2nd, making it practically possible to get the 25%.



4. The core northern Christians has always being pro PDP so your insinuation is inconsistent.
The only effect of Muslim- Muslim ticket that may take a little from the APC is in Benue of NC. The only state in the north that has no sharp religious divide.

Why are you being economical with truth?

Tinubu would win the 40 states and capital.

Bvas won't be used, election results would be call by Only APC agents in all the states.

unclejb2:
The Muslim Muslim ticket killed Tinubu's ambition and boosted Obi's chances.

Yoruba christians will vote massively for Obi.

Very true.
My guys yesterday called me. And asked hope am voting Obi. I was shocked, because we don't real talk about politics like that. They were even asking me If I have my PVC. Mind you!, they are Yoruba Christians too. This elections will be very funny. Then my mind cast back to bantu page, they said obi will win Lagos 31%, Tinubu in 2nd 28%. If Obi can get 40% from Lagos. And Tinubu can't 25% from Anambra. How does Tinubu want to win the elections?. Any vote Tinubu gets from the SE & SS. Obi will cancel it in the SW. But Tinubu can't cancel Obi's votes with SW. Atiku will win the NE, Tinubu will win the NORTHWEST, that's the problem Tinubu is facing, 3 people(Tinubu, Atiku, kwankwanso) are Fighting for 2 zones. Obi will take the se & ss. Therefore, it will be very difficult for obi to loose this elections. I just don't see it.

senatordave1:


Please,before arguing go and ask any agent

before arguing go and study how elections are rigged. Vote buying doesn't play a huge role.
Overvoting and manipulate of ballot paper is the real deal, BVAS has ended that

MadamExcellency:


Rochas Okorocha was popular and have goodwill with the people, yet he didn't give Buhari the 25% and you are banking on the killer governor and Umeahi to deliver 25% to Tinubu?

Stop hallucinating

Abi, the imo governor could not win his elections, his now the person they are hoping to give Tinubu 25%, jokers......

SenatePresdo:


Sounds more sentimental.

How can you add Ebonyi for Tinubu, and then remove Ogun, Kaduna and Nasarawa from Peter Obi's?

Peter Obi will come second in most SW states, even before Atiku.

And for the records, Atiku will come second in all SE/SS states.

If Everything remains squared, and Bvas working, Tinubu won't see 25% in any SE and SS state. Mark it somewhere.

It's February 25, be ready to check the dashboard.

Exactly.
That's why I don't believe these urchins when they say obi won't get 40% from the southwest. Obi will be second in the southwest and Atiku in the se.

senatordave1:


The problem with you and most obidients us that you guys are novices,you know little about elections.you see normal things in elections as strange so you argue blindly.
Listen,in every polling unit,apc and pdp always budget at least 100k to buy votes,inec and even security agencies.this has been happening since 1999.sometimes they share food,gifts.so wake up,obi is against it

So is this the rubbish structure they keep talking about?
Well....am not surprised. If that's what they are banking on......they are deceiving themselves. They tried it in Osun. But we say what happened. Can APC & PDP Combine to bribe 93 million people?. There rubbish structure will not work everywhere. So we won't loose sweat over it

Sammy07:



How much are you betting?

Apart from Lagos State, Tinubu will have more votes in South East than Obi in South West!


Obi no fit see 20,000 votes here in Ondo.

Obi will have more votes than Tinubu in the core north. Obi will cancel Tinubu's votes from the SW with the core north.

Honjoshy4u:


Keep predicting rubbish.
I hope after predicting, you will go out with your useless APC membership card to buy a bag of rice #12,000.
Exchange dollar for #220( that is if the government you support have not finished you).
You should be ashamed of supporting a failed party.
For your information, APC/Tinubu can not win any state in the SS or SE.
For your information, even Buhari no win Abuja not to talk of Tinubu.

Keep predicting .......

Ogbeni, we are talking about 35% here and not winning a state.
I'd hope you know Buhari won the presidential election without winning any state I'm ur SE/SS states. (Attachee by force people)

Hustle to make more morning so that you can afford the ever rising price of goods instead of waiting for the goods to drop in price to ur affordability.

Mfetenang:
Never let your sentiments or emotions overshadow reality. For those who understand Nigerian politics including all the real politicians in the South East like Soludo,Kalu,Nnamadi and the rest of them, Peter Obi's eminent failure and embarrassment won't be a surprise.
It's only people like you who are selling spare parts in Onitsha market that will come here to make noise because you have managed to sell one item today and you have 1000 Naira for data.

so soludo is now a real politican just because he become the gov yesterday and becasue he is agaisnt obi abi?? well the real politicians are against tinubu in southwest, people like obj, bode george and the rest