Bigleaf1006:

The way you ascribe phantom popularity to obi up north depicts you as someone who would have a very beautiful mansion in the air.

"If wishes were horses..........."

When you finally get to travel from your village in the southwest and tour Nigeria, you'll know "the north" isn't one single bloc of people. They're very heterogeneous with different blocs but don't worry, you will learn

Bigleaf1006:


Only if you know how kwakwanso and obi's emergence is to the advantage of Tinubu.....you won't be so depressed but envy and realize that Tinubu is already past halfway to aso rock.

This would have been atiku's votes.....but they are all lost right now.

That's assuming everyone who voted for buhari votes tifnubu abi? That's impossible. I really wonder who is deceiving you people with these silly takes. Keep saying that if it makes you sleep better sha, y'all will learn

SamuelAnyawu:


Peter spoilt Atiku’s chances cos of SS and SE.

As it stands Tinubu has won already

You are a PDP man, undoubtedly experienced enough not to drop silly takes. Atiku even stands a better chance in this election than tifnubu but keep capping. Na now I believe when dem say PDP national secretary dey work for agbado man.

Abdul9025:


choi forget this is rented crowds also.. I was given N1200 with a red cap just to enter the stadium and the truth is that the stadium is not full

OK

Foolishbuhari:

When you finally get to travel from your village in the southwest and tour Nigeria, you'll know "the north" isn't one single bloc of people. They're very heterogeneous with different blocs but don't worry, you will learn

Mr geography!! Tell me more......dogara that you had hoped would give you the leverage in bauchi south left you high and dry.

The Feather weight LP compared to PDP and APC that have boots on the ground and resources to back it up is the one you are deluding urself to get anything reasonable in bauchi south just because of their huge christian population and nothing more.

I put it to you oga!! That your assumption cannot hold water and its in abeyance to any form of logic.

badoh:

This thread is not about Tinubu, so carry your hatred somewhere else. Tinubu never ruled your family or your state, he has right to vote and be voted for, if you don't like him, port to another candidate of your choice, period.

And who disputed his rights to vote or be voted for? Please get your silly frustrated self out my mentions joor lol

Bigleaf1006:


Mr geography!! Tell me more......dogara that you had hoped would give you the leverage in bauchi south left you high and dry.

The Feather weight LP compared to PDP and APC that have boots on the ground and resources to back it up is the one you are deluding urself to get anything reasonable in bauchi south just because of their huge christian population and nothing more.

I put it to you oga!! That your assumption cannot hold water and its in abeyance to any form of logic.

Dogara? Lol its like saying Wike will deliver Rivers votes to anyone. You see this una big man elite politics una dey play ehn, Y'all will learn sha. February no far again

Coolsperm:
Although Atiku is far better than Tinubu but we prefer Peter Obi

God bless you my brother, I'm a Yoruba man, but ill never cast my Vote in sake of stupid tribalism. I did rather swallow my vote for me to Vote one selfish and wicked grandpa. I will vote Peter obi since they all believes in one Nigeria. Gone are the days when we voted in sake of sentiment and tribalism.
PETER OBI GET MY VOTE AND OF MY EXTENDED FAMILY. YOU CAN HARM YOURSELF FOR THAT

Foolishbuhari:

That's assuming everyone who voted for buhari votes tifnubu abi? That's impossible. I really wonder who is deceiving you people with these silly takes. Keep saying that if it makes you sleep better sha, y'all will learn

Put it on the table and dissect it in and out......the advantage Atiku would have had from perceived buhari's failure has been eroded by the emergence of obi and kwakwanso.

If the balkanization of the opposition into 3 parts isn't a great advantage to APC,I don't know what could be better.

For every 10 generic buhari supporter he still has 5 who will still follow him no matter how abysmal you regard his government.the most 5 that should have gone to PDP is now been shared with NNPP and LP.

And for every gain Atiku has gotten in the north he has lost in the SE and SS.

Greenscientist:


Tinubu belong to a party? What party does Atiku belong too? Tinubu is a tribal bigot? Where did he express tribal bigotry?

What is my problem with his father and mother or siblings? He went to university and thrived, isn't that enough? I know people that are homeschooled till university, does that make them less competent. Who cares? Is he competent? He was when he was a governor . Will he be now? I don't know.

Anyone that says Atiku is better than TINUBU is just pure jealous of Tinubu or doesn't want a Yoruba in presidency.

I might not argue with you when you mention Obi but don't bring Atiku into the matter.

If you are Pro-Yoruba Presidency, how can Tinubu a known treasury looter and political criminal be the person to represent Yorubas among all the honorable and wonderful men of integrity Yorubas have?


Why didn't you guys push for Prof. Yemi Osinbajo? Fashola is far better than Tinubu. Akinwunmi Adesina is a Yoruba man. There are hundreds more men of integrity in Southwest, why must you guys foist Bola Tinubu on us knowing he is not healthy, doesn't have integrity, very selfish, vindictive and highly tribalistic like Buhari?

Greenscientist:


Tinubu is more corrupt? How? Who has ever indicted Tinubu of corruption before? Tell me the money anyone said Tinubu stole and I'll give you X2 of that of Atiku.

Tinubu hijacked a whole state, I ask you what is bad about that? Isn't Nigeria hijacked by "corrupt" people like "him"? Tinubu doesn't just steal money, he strategically does and if that is what is been done in Nigeria as a whole we would have been better off.

Let a politician come and build a functioning refinery, revamp ajaokuta steel and gold industry, make us an agricultural giant and set up a company he uses to syphon 40% of the revenue, Nigeria would have been better than this Nonsense but what we have are politicians that steal directly from government purse without innovation and you want to crucify someone for been innovative and using "Alpha beta" to "steal". If I have a company will I choose a Tinubu to run it? Yes! but I'll prefer someone who wouldn't steal at all.

If Tinubu is not in charge of Lagos, Lagos might not have been this better and it leader might lack vision to propel the state. When you tell me Lagos have money that is why it is moving forward, is Nigeria not rich? Why are we not moving forward? Is it that they don't steal in US? They do, but they reinvest back into their country.

Go and sit down, you all know Bola Tinubu is the current father of corruption in Nigeria, stop pretending



How can you indict Tinubu when he is the Lagos Monarch that installs and remove Governors, HoA members at will? Who will indict him? Who will open the files? Heartless souls supporting evil cos of tribal bigotry.



Why didn't Osinbajo get you guys support? Why Tinubu a known criminal with too many criminal and shady past?

Foolishbuhari:

Dogara? Lol its like saying Wike will deliver Rivers votes to anyone. You see this una big man elite politics una dey play ehn, Y'all will learn sha. February no far again

That's the problem, you think those with independent minds are in majority,you are wrong.....many are still being led to the slaughter with their eyes wide open.

Bigleaf1006:


That's the problem, you think those with independent minds are in majority,you are wrong.....many are still being led to the slaughter with their eyes wide open.

Well it's just a few days to see the reality abi? Let's wait

Bigleaf1006:


Put it on the table and dissect it in and out......the advantage Atiku would have had from perceived buhari's failure has been eroded by the emergence of obi and kwakwanso.

If the balkanization of the opposition into 3 parts isn't a great advantage to APC,I don't know what could be better.

For every 10 generic buhari supporter he still has 5 who will still follow him no matter how abysmal you regard his government.the most 5 that should have gone to PDP is now been shared with NNPP and LP.

And for every gain Atiku has gotten in the north he has lost in the SE and SS.

In 2011, GEJ got a million, one hundred votes from kaduna. In 2015, he got 400k. Same thing happened at jigawa, many other states. It tells you that alliances switch especially when a northerner is involved. The mistake y'all keep making is assuming Buhari it's buhari on the ballot. FYI, over 50% of those buhari's votes were incidence form votes and other sharp practices. Will there be incident forms in the 2023 elections?

Most of the core north see buhari's tenure as a waste and see RMK or Atiku as a second chance to be in power; they won't give it up for Bola. Let's even assume your speculation is correct and Bola gets half of buhari's northern votes, it still won't be enough to deliver him. He needs at least 70% of those northern votes and buhari's NC votes are mostly eroded as things stand.

I don't know how y'all see this sha but Bola is the only candidate running not on his Popularity but on the popularity of others. E go shock una oh my brother but as I said, February is upon us.

franchasng:
If you are Pro-Yoruba Presidency, how can Tinubu a known treasury looter and political criminal be the person to represent Yorubas among all the honorable and wonderful men of integrity Yorubas have?


Why didn't you guys push for Prof. Yemi Osinbajo? Fashola is far better than Tinubu. Akinwunmi Adesina is a Yoruba man. There are hundreds more men of integrity in Southwest, why must you guys foist Bola Tinubu on us knowing he is not healthy, doesn't have integrity, very selfish, vindictive and highly tribalistic like Buhari?

I'm not pushing any Yoruba but Tinubu is better than Atiku. How will a Yoruba been there be of help to me?

How did Obasanjo benefit my father?

franchasng:
Go and sit down, you all know Bola Tinubu is the current father of corruption in Nigeria, stop pretending



How can you indict Tinubu when he is the Lagos Monarch that installs and remove Governors, HoA members at will? Who will indict him? Who will open the files? Heartless souls supporting evil cos of tribal bigotry.



Why didn't Osinbajo get you guys support? Why Tinubu a known criminal with too many criminal and shady past?

Did I tell you he is not corrupt? Why are you crying this hard?

You told me he is more corrupt than Atiku and I said you should proof it, yet you cannot.

My position is simple, loud and clear, if his type of corruption is used in Nigeria, Nigeria would have been better than this.

If I have a company, I'll give it to Tinubu over a Atiku. They "might" both steal but Tinubu will give me more return than Atiku because he will improve the business.

So, Obasanjo endorsement is a significant endorsement to you? What did Obasanjo do as a president. Go and sit down abeg.

I'm not saying Tinubu should be our president but Tinubu is better than Atiku in all ramification, simple.

Foolishbuhari:

In 2011, GEJ got a million, one hundred votes from kaduna. In 2015, he got 400k. Same thing happened at jigawa, many other states. It tells you that alliances switch especially when a northerner is involved. The mistake y'all keep making is assuming Buhari it's buhari on the ballot. FYI, over 50% of those buhari's votes were incidence form votes and other sharp practices. Will there be incident forms in the 2023 elections?

Most of the core north see buhari's tenure as a waste and see RMK or Atiku as a second chance to be in power; they won't give it up for Bola. Let's even assume your speculation is correct and Bola gets half of buhari's northern votes, it still won't be enough to deliver him. He needs at least 70% of those northern votes and buhari's NC votes are mostly eroded as things stand.

I don't know how y'all see this sha but Bola is the only candidate running not on his Popularity but on the popularity of others. E go shock una oh my brother but as I said, February is upon us.

I really appreciate this discourse and I really wish we could get it going.
Individual popularity is just 50% of the force that propels one to power,the other half is structure,party,powers that be which ever you choose to call it.

Atiku would have stood a chance if his house/party had been in order.....I am not saying Tinubu is better than Atiku or Atiku better than obi or obi better than any of them,I am only being realistic with their chances.

What gej suffered in 2015 is same thing Atiku is suffering today only hydra headed,however Tinubu on the other hand as been able to maintain cohesion in is party,not saying he doesn't have his problems but they aren't as grave as atiku's.

Even among the opposition politicians,Tinubu has emphatisers,you saw the reception ugwanyi gave him when he visited,I am not saying that will manifestly transform to votes for him but as long as a formidable adversary is not necessarily standing in your way or outrightly going against his ambition is a very big plus.

All the governors in his SW are with him and the recalcitrant adeleke dear not stand in his way,can Atiku boast of same in his home region.

The buhari and governors infleunce in the NW is also a plus for him whichever way you look at it and he can be guaranteed 50%of NW votes. Also in the NC he is still ahead of Atiku with niger,Kwara and kogi.

Take out the SE and leave it for obi but Tinubu can do 25% there and 40% in SS at least.

I am sorry I left out obi and kwakwanso,it was deliberate in that they do not have enough strength compared to the other 2 at least on paper.

Novarisammy2:


you should be more concerned about the fragile drug lord aka bobo Chicago on where and how the bloc votes from the north will come from


that alone should give u sleepless nights

Start preparing to cry, and wail, for your lie lie candidate will lose gallantly.

Bigleaf1006:


I really appreciate this discourse and I really wish we could get it going.
Individual popularity is just 50% of the force that propels one to power,the other half is structure,party,powers that be which ever you choose to call it.

Atiku would have stood a chance if his house/party had been in order.....I am not saying Tinubu is better than Atiku or Atiku better than obi or obi better than any of them,I am only being realistic with their chances.

What gej suffered in 2015 is same thing Atiku is suffering today only hydra headed,however Tinubu on the other hand as been able to maintain cohesion in is party,not saying he doesn't have his problems but they aren't as grave as atiku's.

Even among the opposition politicians,Tinubu has emphatisers,you saw the reception ugwanyi gave him when he visited,I am not saying that will manifestly transform to votes for him but as long as a formidable adversary is not necessarily standing in your way or outrightly going against his ambition is a very big plus.

All the governors in his SW are with him and the recalcitrant adeleke dear not stand in his way,can Atiku boast of same in his home region.

The buhari and governors infleunce in the NW is also a plus for him whichever way you look at it and he can be guaranteed 50%of NW votes. Also in the NC he is still ahead of Atiku with niger,Kwara and kogi.

Take out the SE and leave it for obi but Tinubu can do 25% there and 40% in SS at least.

I am sorry I left out obi and kwakwanso,it was deliberate in that they do not have enough strength compared to the other 2 at least on paper.

I appreciate that we can have a discourse on NL without abuses and tribal slurs. Never knew it was still possible. Now let’s critically analyze all you just said.

Structures, governors and political powers have a say when they can manipulate results as they did before now. The best any governor can do for anyone now is to disrupt voting in perceived opposition strongholds which has been going on for decades in Lagos. Despite this using Lagos as an example, results has always been 60/40 or 55/45.

Then let’s look at the chances of the candidates. You said Bola can get 25% in the SE and 40% SS? I dare tell you that won’t happen. I’m from delta state I know what’s happening in my state. In delta, it’s a straight race between LP and PDP. In many other states it’s the same. The only SS state Bola may get 25% is Bayelsa due to vote buying. Even the APC candidates there don’t campaign with Bola. Yes, they won’t dare. My uncle is a strong member of the APC FYI.

Now Bola has to contend with the wrecked economy and insecurity which Buhari and his party has wrought upon Nigerians. The APC is fast becoming an anathema in many places. You speak of NC - kogi, Kwara, Niger. Do I need remind you how Yahaya bello managed to get out a win? Niger state has over 7 LGA under occupation of terrorists. Kwara he’ll win because of Tribalism but what margin?

Then the core north: I’ve told you before that those people are not fools as you think of them. He’s in APC! APC is the enemy here. That’s what people see. I’ve been opportune to discuss this election with some men from there and they told me without Peter in the race, it would have been a landslide for Atiku and I know. Which is why I laugh when APC vuvuzelas leave him to focus on attacking Peter Obi.

This election will demystify many electoral myths in Nigeria. The north won’t be giving anyone bloc votes and that’s what you should be bothered about. That alone is Bola’s main problem. The SW won’t give him block votes but I know you will disagree.

My verdict, “structures” will help no one because the elections will be won and lost at the PUs. No collation center magic will happen. With all the structures and federal might, APC lost Osun to a popular candidate. Many people who voted Buhari won’t vote Bola and I know because I’ve been moving around. Why do you think he decided to weaponize religion by running a MU MU ticket?

Well February is upon us and doubts will be cleared but believe me when I tell you that Bola is the weakest candidate in this race. He has no strongholds except the SW which is been seriously eaten into by Peter Obi. The NW, he has atiku and Kwakwanso to contend with. In the NE, he has Atiku, Kwakwanso and Obi to contend with. This election can’t be called now for anyone but it will sure spring surprises!

But the guy has crowd o

Foolishbuhari:

Where him been dey get hope from before? LMAO! He's not popular down south. Unfortunately, this won't be enough to carry him to victory because his northern votes are been torn to shreds by the real masters of politics in the same north. See, speak with a real northerner- the talakawa; not the Twitter or government house politician oh. Ask him his thoughts about the election and you'd get your response.

These people see buhari's tenure as a waste and either the duo of Atiku or Kwankwaso gives them another shot at power for 8 years. They won't abandon that for Bola. They'd ship themselves down home to vote for Kwankwaso once elections approach. Watch and see.

THE ODDS FAVORS TINUBU TO WIN THE 2023 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. IT'S TOO OBVIOUS UNLESS TO THE BLIND AND DELUDED.


For those running around focusing on Tinubu’s age, certificates, alleged ill-health, bublubla and Muslim-Muslim ticket, that is an ineffective political tactic.

Here is Atiku’s challenge. It is in the numbers!
The same applies to Peter Obi or Kwankwanso.

Below are 14 Northern states with APC governors.
Which one do you think Atiku's PDP, or Kwankwanso's NNPP or Peter Obi's Labour Party will win?

1.Borno state: Babagane Zulum
2. Gombe state: Inuwa Yahaya
3. Jigawa state: Badaru Mohammed
4. Kaduna state: Nasir El Rufai
5. Kano state: Umar Ganduje
6. Katsina state: Aminu Masari
7. Kwara state: A AbdulRasaq
8. Nasarawa state: Abdulahi Sule
9. Niger state: Abubakar Bello
10. Plateau state: Simon Lalong
11. Zamfara state: Bello Matawalle
12. Kebbi state: Atiku Bagudu
13. Yobe state: Mai Mala Buni
14. Kogi State: Yaya Bello

At the Eagle Square in Abuja, 13 of them campaigned for and got Tinubu elected as the Presidential flagbearer of the APC.
Today, all these governors, including Yaya Bello of Kogi State are supporting Tinubu and there is no crack in their ranks.

Can Atiku or Kwankwanso or Obi peel away any of these govs?

Can any of these opposition candidates win any of these states without the governor's support?

For emphasis I have also included the south-western states under APC control or in Tinubu’s electoral basket:

The South-Western APC state are:
1. Lagos: Sanwo-Olu
2. Ekiti: Abiodun Oyebanji
3. Ogun: Dapo Abiodun
4. Ondo: Rotimi Akeredolu
5. Osun
6. Oyo
Which of these states can Atiku or Kwankwanso or Obi win?

To complicate Atiku’s path to victory is the enthusiasm being generated mostly in some southern cities for Peter Obi's Candidacy. In the south, the PDP is mostly dominant in the South South and South East. Even 3 of the governors in these states are APC!

In 2015, the APC won mainly because all the opposition political parties merged and formed a formidable political platform whereas the ruling PDP was enmeshed in an intractable crisis and a political war of attrition with at least 5 sitting governors, the Senate President, Speaker of the House of Representatives, several senators and House of Representatives members including serving Ministers leaving the party. The exact reverse scenario is playing out in 2023. The APC is intact but the opposition is sinking deeper into opposition and is fragmented with Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwanso leaving the PDP. The PDP G-5 governors have crossed the rubicon and will not be supporting Atiku’s candidacy in the presidential election. They are expected to declare their support for either Tinubu or less likely Peter Obi in the coming days. This will be fatal to Atiku’s chances and unlikely to shore up Peter Obi's chances in any significant manner.

Until we see a crack in the APC governor's support, Tinubu is sitting pretty well and the odds are clearly in his favour to win.

The opponents of the APC Candidate say the Buhari administration has not done well but this is vehemently contested by APC party stalwarts who insist that Buhari is the best thing to happen to Nigeria. Will this count during the 2023 Presidential election? The answer so far is No using Ekiti gov election as a barometer, even though it is a very small sample size. Even the Osun election was won by PDP simply because Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola and his faction of the APC are alleged to have worked against the candidate of the APC.

Those opposed to Tinubu, rather than hold him to a campaign of issues are wasting their time with his age, alleged ill-health, his Muslim choice as running mate etc. They even want the courts and INEC to disqualify Tinubu. None of these will work or even happen!
Indeed, Tinubu has so far campaigned more hungrily and more comprehensively than any of his challengers. From the UK to Saudi Arabia, then Kano and Edo states and then back to Kano...all in 4 days! On monday, 9th January, he will be in Adamawa state with President Muhammadu Buhari leading the charge for votes in the state and other core northern states in quick succession putting a lie to the claim by the PDP that Buhari has vowed not to join the Asiwaju campaign train. The supposedly fitter candidates are all lagging behind Asiwaju.

The only way to defeat Tinubu will be at the ballot by all the opposition candidates stepping down for only one of them but this will also never happen. Tinubu is still in pole position for now and coasting to victory.

Atiku lacks the bite....majority of southerners are also unlikely to stomach a potential 16 years of a northerner presidency. In a very commendable display of statesmanship, patriotism and to guarantee national cohesion stability, the political leaders of Northern Nigeria also desire to respect the North-South power rotation on which plank President Goodluck Jonathan was defeated in the North and then eventually nationally in 2015.

It is almost late in the day to upstage the entrenched political system in Nigeria and by the current political and electoral system and in a free and fair contest, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu appears unstoppable and a Jagaban presidency looms large.

Dr. Philip Ugbodaga
Citizen of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (CFRN)

sapele914:
Peter Obi will not win 1 Local Government in the South South, the Ipobian Judas has nothing to offer the good people of the Niger Delta, who apparently feeds him & Nigeria.

you are somebody I cant engage in any political discourse..it's clear from your submission that you are a novice...how can any reasonable person say that Peter Obi cannot win any local government in south south.