https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3oY-RHKkNU

Joker! Labour will score more than APC in edo, delta ,Bayelsa and crossriver? Joke. Anybody can make postulations Sha. Just 3weeks to go!

Buccalcavity2:
Joker! Labour will score more than APC in edo, delta ,Bayelsa and crossriver? Joke. Anybody can make postulations Sha. Just 3weeks to go!

shut up.Under estimate Okowa at ur own peril.Labor can never win delta.You don’t win election with city votes.The ppl in gbaramatu don’t know any other party aside umbrella

highchief1:
shut up.Under estimate Okowa at ur own peril.Labor can never win delta.You don’t win election with city votes.The ppl in gbaramatu don’t know any other party aside umbrella

And where did I mention that labor will win Delta? E be like say you dey read backwards.

Buccalcavity2:
Joker! Labour will score more than APC in edo, delta ,Bayelsa and crossriver? Joke. Anybody can make postulations Sha. Just 3weeks to go!

Have you been to those state recently ?

highchief1:
shut up.Under estimate Okowa at ur own peril.Labor can never win delta.You don’t win election with city votes.The ppl in gbaramatu don’t know any other party aside umbrella

That's why PDAPC failed

Village people hear new released music hours after it was released , but don't know labour party ?

Do you think city people who mostly support those villagers who now happen to have special interest in this election haven't communicated that to the villagers ?

The way some of you just assume villagers are dumb and can be manipulated is annoying ...yes when they are indifferent money can make them vote a candidate because they didn't really have a candidate ...not now we all want obi

Trust money vote buyers for PDAPC would be beaten on that election day

Thugs would be beaten to death on that election day

You people don't know how angry Nigerians are

He thinks APC will win in Taraba and Sokoto.
What a joke 😂

mrvitalis:

That's why PDAPC failed

Village people hear new released music hours after it was released , but don't know labour party ?

Do you think city people who mostly support those villagers who now happen to have special interest in this election haven't communicated that to the villagers ?

The way some of you just assume villagers are dumb and can be manipulated is annoying ...yes when they are indifferent money can make them vote a candidate because they didn't really have a candidate ...not now we all want obi

Trust money vote buyers for PDAPC would be beaten on that election day

Thugs would be beaten to death on that election day

You people don't know how angry Nigerians are

the part of thugs will be beaten to death got me laughing.I go like to see where them Dey beat who go beat person.We all want the best for Nigeria but we don’t want a repackaged fraud.Obi is on the same page with Buhari in 2015.He can’t do half of the things he is boasting of,He couldn’t do them in anambra in 8yrs.I hope u don’t insult me like other OBIDIENTs I’m just saying what I know.u can educate me more of Obi score card as a Gov in anambra.

highchief1:
the part of thugs will be beaten to death got me laughing.I go like to see where them Dey beat who go beat person.We all want the best for Nigeria but we don’t want a repackaged fraud.Obi is on the same page with Buhari in 2015.He can’t do half of the things he is boasting of,He couldn’t do them in anambra in 8yrs.I hope u don’t insult me like other OBIDIENTs I’m just saying what I know.u can educate me more of Obi score card as a Gov in anambra.

Remember the thug they sent to festac in 2019 ? What happened ? Relax you would hear scores ...just write your will before going

Everything obi is saying he did to Anambra reason we want him

Buccalcavity2:
Joker! Labour will score more than APC in edo, delta ,Bayelsa and crossriver? Joke. Anybody can make postulations Sha. Just 3weeks to go!

Yes they will , unless rigged

Bookmarked, February 25th is not far again.

mrvitalis:

Remember the thug they sent to festac in 2019 ? What happened ? Relax you would hear scores ...just write your will before going

Everything obi is saying he did to Anambra reason we want him

will to do what,what’s my business with Nigeria or Africa,Me when don jappa.if una like una burn down Nigeria e no concern me bros

highchief1:
will to do what,what’s my business with Nigeria or Africa,Me when don jappa.if una like una burn down Nigeria e no concern me bros

And you are supporting Tinubu ... they would deport you soon believe me

Thanks for your analysis. You under estimated APC performance in Southwest and in Southsouth. APC won't win less than 70% in states outside of Lagos and at least 55% in Lagos. This is the worst case scenario.
I expect APC to have 25% across SS states and score above 30% in Edo, Bayelsa, Cross River. Believe me, APC may even score highest votes in Bayelsa if it reproduce its %age performance of 2019. Delta is another state because the same Delta areas have Obi and Okowa as popular candidates and, Delta South will crown the winner. APC may come second there. Rivers depends on Wike and his followers.
APC will perform better than your projections across the North. Apart from Sokoto NWand NE will return 30% and above to APC send LP may not win above 10% across NW and NE. The key obstacle to LP will be its inability to score 25% in 24states ,(please mark this)
So technically it's between APC and PDP they are capable of getting 24% across 24states and FCT.
If thr LP momentum can be sustained, its on a standby whenever Kwankwaso and Tambuwal are scheming to come in in next dispensation.

All the permutations you people made months ago about Peter Obi and the LP have been rubbished. A couple of weeks into the election, PO is not just in the race but has become a major contender.

Anything can happen.

mandarin:
Thanks for your analysis. You under estimated APC performance in Southwest and in Southsouth. APC won't win less than 70% in states outside of Lagos and at least 55% in Lagos. This is the worst case scenario.
I expect APC to have 25% across SS states and score above 30% in Edo, Bayelsa, Cross River. Believe me, APC may even score highest votes in Bayelsa if it reproduce its %age performance of 2019. Delta is another state because the same Delta areas have Obi and Okowa as popular candidates and, Delta South will crown the winner. APC may come second there. Rivers depends on Wike and his followers.
APC will perform better than your projections across the North. Apart from Sokoto NWand NE will return 30% and above to APC send LP may not win above 10% across NW and NE. The key obstacle to LP will be its inability to score 25% in 24states ,(please mark this)
So technically it's between APC and PDP they are capable of getting 24% across 24states and FCT.
If thr LP momentum can be sustained, its on a standby whenever Kwankwaso and Tambuwal are scheming to come in in next dispensation.

mrvitalis:

And you are supporting Tinubu ... they would deport you soon believe me

lol wetin I do u again.why do u want them to deport me

omoalaro:
Bookmarked, February 25th is not far again.

the only you guys will win is if you rig

cicero:
All the permutations you people made months ago about Peter Obi and the LP have been rubbished. A couple of weeks into the election, PO is not just in the race but has become a major contender.

Anything can happen.

Anything don't just happen in election. You need data trends and match that with scenarios as across different expectations. None of that favors a 25% across 24 States for Lwbour Party.
Key factors in estimation:
1. Party membership- assuming at least 50% will vote their parties
2. Popularity of candidates across each state
3. Popularity of other candidates I.e. Senate, HOR candidates, Gubernatorial candidates etc
4. Political leaning of sitting state and local officers( this will influence at least 20% across all regions)
5. Ethnicity- yes, ethnicity should have at least 40% influence on voters
6. Religion- This should affect at least 20% to 30% of voters
7. Economic impacts- This shoukd be responsible for at least 10-20% of votes in some urban areas
8. Money- Spenders will still influence voting direction of over 25% of total voters across all regions. This will favor APC and PDP
Now you need to permutate these into order of important across regions and age groups.

A. The SW - religion score low, economy and ethnicity score high, candidate Popularity is important. Its generally a swing region. APC shoukd win over 70% overall.

B.The SE - Economy score highest, ethnicity and Party loyalty. Its expected that LP will sweep this region and deny PDP its certain 25% required. LP shoukd win overall

C. The SS- Party loyalty is a huge factor and candidates popukarities are key. Ethnic affiliation is diverse. Votes will be divided across Party line( pls mark this)

D. The NC - multiethnic region. All of these factors will play key roles. A place like Benue for instance will be a battle ground across APC, LP and PDP( in that order) while Taraba is between PDP and APC( in that order)
The assumption that Christian areas will vote a particular candidate is a pipe dream. In fact religion plays little role in some key regions like SW.

E. The NE - The Kanuri folks will largely vote APC that is ethnic affiliation will matter while its a straight battle between APC and PDP. LP will get some votes from some minorities on religion ground but may not exceed 15% at best due to other factors such as Party affiliation and strenght of candidates.

F. The NW - Religion, ethnicity, Party affiliation and money will all play key roles. I expect Atiku to win this region overall but with not more than 20% difference with Tinubu. Just like the SW, the NW will vote their homeboy while NNPP will make slight impacts in some areas.

When you look at these factors, you would stop projecting based on wishes. Our economic realities are different so are our levels of socio cultural affiliations.

goodplace09:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V3oY-RHKkNU

I agree with a lot of your numbers but I don’t think Obi will get this much in Niger state. They vote like core north because it’s a Muslim state. Also Taraba is over projected for Obi, 20% sounds ideal.