Prediction For The Presidential Election On Saturday (Pics)

The long-awaited day is almost here. Saturday the 25th of February will see the 7th democratic elections, since the turn of democracy in 1999, take place in Nigeria.

The anticipation is at a feverish level across the country. The top contenders are the Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party.

Before we look at projections for the Saturday election, let's refresh our minds with the last presidential election results.

Pic 1: Percentage Voters Turnout (2019)
The 2019 election had a below average turnout at 36.5%

Pic 2: Percentage Voters Turnout By Regions (2019)
Voter apathy experienced across the South, and highest in the Southeast

Pic 3: Northwest Votes (2019)
Buhari floors Atiku in this zone

Pic 4: Northeast Votes (2019)
Buhari floors Atiku again in his home region. A poor showing from the opposition candidate.

Pic 1: North Central Votes (2019)
Atiku puts up a fight here

Pic 2: South West Votes (2019)
The votes are split in this region, between the two contenders

Pic 3: South East Votes (2019)
The region gives Atiku his first major breakthrough

Pic 4: South South Votes (2019)
Atiku gets more support from this region

Now, looking at the chances of the 4 candidates; likely outcomes and areas of possible surprises. In Nigerian elections, there are factors that are of great consideration and which contribute to the outcome.

The major factors include:

1) A candidate's pull factor:
The candidate's charisma, popularity in discussion etc

2) A candidate's party:
The spread of a candidate's party

Others are:

1) Party incumbency:
The current ruling has the most edge in any election. Defeating an incumbent party is very difficult. Masses tend to vote-in continuity, popularity of the ruling party etc

2) Voter interest/turnout:
The willingness of the masses to go out and vote in a candidate. Candidates may be popular in discussion but may not be able to draw voters out to the election.

3) Ethnicity:
Nigeria votes along ethnic lines.

4) Religion:
Nigeria also votes along religious lines.

5) Competence

With the above factors in mind, the outcome of the election (with an average turnout and a retained loyalty to the incumbent ruling party), can be predicted as thus:

Pic 1: North West Predicted Outcome
APC set to claim majority votes here. Closely followed by PDP.

Pic 2: North East Predicted Outcome
APC expected to continue its dominance here. Followed still by PDP

Pic 3: North Central Predicted Outcome
Votes begin to even out here, Labour Party comes into contention.

Pic 4: South West Predicted Outcome
APC expected to have a good outing in this region. The Labour Party expected to claim votes here also. PDP falls behind.

Pic 1: South East Predicted Outcome
Over 95% votes expected to be claimed by Labour Party here. The other candidates are out of contention here.

Pic 2: South South Predicted Outcome
Labour Party expected to a high majority votes here.

An average turnout (~50%) sees APC edge the votes by a difference of ~ 300,000. However, the party falls short of the 24 state minimum spread. The Labour Party has the second most spread at 18 states. PDP is third with 16 states.

However, a greater turnout (~70%) will see results tip in favour of the Labour Party with over 2 million votes ahead of the APC.

Interesting results can be expected in Lagos where the Labour Party is set to win the state by a considerable margin. A result which may be replicated in the coming governorship elections slated for 11th March, 2023.

The turnout decides the election.

Other state by state results can be viewed on www.easternconsigliereblog.com

Felabrity:
Expect x2 turnouts tomorrow, compared to 2019

Over 50 million votes will be recorded tomorrow

Peter Obi, 20 million
Atiku 15million
Tinubu 12 million
Kwankwaso 3 million

AfricanColumbus:
Atiku predicted to come a distant third

AfricanColumbus:
Atiku predicted to come a distant third

princejohnard:
ATIKU would be the winner.....
The large turnout prediction is a bit faulty because large turnout of voters won't be made up of Obidients alone... It would be across board.

Also, Atiku would actually come second in SW states in which he didn't win including Lagos.

ATIKU will get the spread in SE also...

Egoat:

Guy your prediction is massively flawed.
PDP won't get the 25% required votes in Kogi, Kano, Kwara, Oyo, Delta? Abi wetin you talk?

I agree PDP will come a distant third but your projections appear to have come from a drunk.

Hopium:

1. No way LP outperforms PDP in the Sw

2. No way LP perform that much in NC

AfricanColumbus:



Lagos Labour Party votes will rival PDP votes across the remaining states. Only APC will perform well in all Southwest states