After gaining control of Avdiivka, the Russians are now targeting Kramatorsk, Slavyansk and Chasiv Yar, three of the four remaining fortifications intended to delay the Russian advance.

Over the last few hours, both cities have been heavily attacked by MLRS, ballistic missiles, drones, and Kh-22 cruise missiles launched by strategic bombers. The Russians are attempting to target areas where Ukrainians have reserves and are regrouping. The Ukrainian army fighting in this region hasn't rotated for three months, and most of the soldiers are exhausted.

Even in these conditions, the Ukrainians will stand and offer solid resistance due to the fortifications, but the situation is expected to be even more intense than it was months ago, especially considering the increased activity of the Russian air force over the front due to the lack of anti-aircraft defenses from Ukrainian units.

Why is the situation so serious for the Ukrainian army at this stage of the war?

The entire front is facing numerous shortages, and the Russians are increasing the pressure. The question is not if the Russians will open new fronts, but when they will do so.

Discussing peace at this moment isn't easy. Putin has an advantage, and I don't see anyone able to prevent Ukraine from being divided.

Specifically regarding peace, Putin will also demand full demilitarization of Ukraine. I don't see him winning a war and allowing NATO troops on this part of the border. The West still has seized reserves, sanctions, and a few other things to bring to the negotiating table with Putin, but a divided Ukraine and demilitarization, at least for me, seem to be unavoidable terms.

The West won't accept a defeat in Ukraine, and the more time that passes, the fewer territories the Ukrainians can retain. Yes, it's a humiliation for 40 countries to be defeated, but the sooner they negotiate, the more land the Ukrainians can keep.

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1759094178863022576?t=vSMf_TzVkF07qdSJr6aFSg&s=19

A WAR OF LIES

The war in Ukraine is based on lies — lies about how it started, how it’s going, and how it will end.

We are told that Ukraine is winning when in fact it is losing. We are told that the war makes NATO stronger when in fact it is depleting it. We are told that Ukraine’s biggest problem is a lack of funds from the U.S. Congress when in fact the West can’t produce enough ammunition — a problem that will take years to fix. We are told that Russia is suffering greater casualties when in fact Ukraine is running out of soldiers — another problem money can’t fix.

We are told that the world is with us when in fact the Global Majority believes U.S. policy is the height of folly. We are told that there is no opportunity to make peace when in fact we have rejected multiple opportunities for a negotiated settlement. We are told that if Ukraine keeps fighting, it will improve its negotiating position when in fact the terms will only get much worse than what was already available and rejected.

Nevertheless the lies will succeed in dragging out the war. Congress will appropriate more funds. Russia will take more territory. Ukraine will mobilize more young men and women to feed into the meat grinder. Discontent will mount. Eventually there will be a crisis in Kiev and the Zelensky government will be toppled.

And then, when the war is finally lost, when the whole country lays in smoldering ruins on a funeral pyre of their own making, the liars will say “well we tried.” Having prevented any alternative, having smeared anyone who told the truth as puppets for the enemy, the liars will say “We did our best. We stood up to Putin.”

In fact, they will claim, we would have succeeded but for the fifth column of Putin apologists who stabbed the Ukrainians in the back. Then, having shifted blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, as they moved onto Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The lies are comprehensive — but they will work.

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1758976951744897179?t=6KdBKMH-sxXf1_SJG9VY7A&s=19

Is there enough time to rearm Ukraine?

Basically the Ukrainian army has lost the combat initiative on the entire front. However, this doesn't mean that the Russians can advance rapidly or gain large amounts of land in less than 2 or 3 months.

When Stalin rebuilt Ukraine, he designed the cities never to fall again. Most Ukrainian cities have inside extreme fortifications such as armories and a vast network of tunnels, which will prolong the war in these cities. It is likely that the Russians will avoid engaging in urban combat in medium and large cities like Kharkov.

But is there still time to rearm Ukraine?
Yes and no. While there is time to send more equipment, the allies lack the availability of the most critical equipment, specifically anti-air systems, not to mention the ammunition.

Essentially, to rearm Ukraine and make them combat-ready, it would be necessary to deliver the same amount of weapons that were delivered in 2022 and 2023 within a few months, in addition to the same number of personal equipment such as helmets, body armor, etc. A few months ago, I reported on a Ukrainian conscript receiving a helmet with a hole and, according to him, smelling of "cadaver".

I don't see the industry capable of doing this again in such a short time. Not to mention the serious lack of personnel in the Ukrainian army. We are going to see the average age in the Ukrainian army reach almost 50 years in a few months.

Then there is the problem of funding. It's not just about weapons, but also about having the money to pay bills and build fortifications. For example, on January 19, 2024, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denis Shmygal announced that about 17 billion hryvnias had been allocated from the budget for the construction of fortifications and defensive lines. However, less than a month had passed since the start of construction, when it suddenly became clear that the money had run out. Local authorities in the Zaporozhye region, controlled by Ukraine, planned to purchase 45 thousand pieces of "dragon's teeth" and even announced a tender, held an auction and selected a contractor. But when it came to payment, the customer suddenly announced the cancellation of the tender.

The situation is catastrophic. Nobody has the courage to call for a ceasefire and discuss peace terms.

The war will continue with intense battles over these last fortresses, and the Russians will advance slowly due to the reasons mentioned.

Yes, there is still time to rearm Ukraine, but I'm not sure if this can lead to victory.

https://twitter.com/pati_marins64/status/1759240243230671349?t=EfAcDLtXiqgR1EihgYzNiQ&s=19

Beautiful

rottennaija:
A WAR OF LIES

The war in Ukraine is based on lies — lies about how it started, how it’s going, and how it will end.

We are told that Ukraine is winning when in fact it is losing. We are told that the war makes NATO stronger when in fact it is depleting it. We are told that Ukraine’s biggest problem is a lack of funds from the U.S. Congress when in fact the West can’t produce enough ammunition — a problem that will take years to fix. We are told that Russia is suffering greater casualties when in fact Ukraine is running out of soldiers — another problem money can’t fix.

We are told that the world is with us when in fact the Global Majority believes U.S. policy is the height of folly. We are told that there is no opportunity to make peace when in fact we have rejected multiple opportunities for a negotiated settlement. We are told that if Ukraine keeps fighting, it will improve its negotiating position when in fact the terms will only get much worse than what was already available and rejected.

Nevertheless the lies will succeed in dragging out the war. Congress will appropriate more funds. Russia will take more territory. Ukraine will mobilize more young men and women to feed into the meat grinder. Discontent will mount. Eventually there will be a crisis in Kiev and the Zelensky government will be toppled.

And then, when the war is finally lost, when the whole country lays in smoldering ruins on a funeral pyre of their own making, the liars will say “well we tried.” Having prevented any alternative, having smeared anyone who told the truth as puppets for the enemy, the liars will say “We did our best. We stood up to Putin.”

In fact, they will claim, we would have succeeded but for the fifth column of Putin apologists who stabbed the Ukrainians in the back. Then, having shifted blame and patted themselves on the back, they will blithely move on to the next war, as they moved onto Ukraine after their disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq.

The lies are comprehensive — but they will work.

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1758976951744897179?t=6KdBKMH-sxXf1_SJG9VY7A&s=19

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