This is a quick post analysing my thought process on what is to come.

Actual facts + Sprinlkling of bro science

No!

Im not Nostradamus...YET

Dangotes refinery just crashed the price of diesel in the market of which the change is gonna reflect soon and Dangote plans to do same to the price of Petroleum by next month May 2024.

Sounds like a good news on first look but its quite of a dilemma really

The Nigeria Government released a shocking news saying its crude oil on ground has been sold, six months into the future

In their own words " ...the government realised that the crude oil we are, and will be getting in the next six months or so, had been sold in advance. So they dont get value for what they are selling now"

What this news means is there will be no crude oil to sell to Dangote to refine until six months or so has passed.

The date of that quoted news release was on Feb, 2024. So six months into the future gives August, september OR SO

which means Dangote would have to import crude oil N DOLLARS to refine and sell to Nigerians in Naira

But guess what

Crude oil prices just jumped to $87, highest price since October 2023, sources say...and that news is not good

Why

The current price of crude oil being $87 is gonna soon be the cost price adopted for Country sellers of crude oil. and remember, Nigeria cant sell for now since it has sold Six months into the future

So Dangote buying crude oil in dollars at a high price now, then refines, and sells back to us may not seem economically feasible for him

Trust me, the temptation for Dangote to sell his petroleum to buyer countries where he can get a bang for his buck is throat gripping

**and Dangote would be taking our naira to exchange so he can buy crude oil in dolllars thereby reducing the value of the naira further because crude oil isnt sold in Naira in the international markets ***


so Dangote buys crude oil from another country @$87 refines and add his profits and sells to us Nigerians at HOW MUCH EXACTLY


Ding Ding




Now unless TWO IMPORTANT things happens, Dangote would not want to sell his refined petroleum to Nigeria OR Dangotes petroleum price would give close marking to the prices before the establishment of his refinery

1) The exchange rate (dollar to naira) goes lower, meaning dollar purchasing lesser naira which is good for the Nigeria economy since Dangote would have to import crude and if the cost of importing crude is cheaper, then the price of its end product (petroleum) would be too


2) Subsidy is introduced to make his petroleum cheaper for Nigerians. This is in the events that the exchange rate drop doesnt go as planned

***Naira can actually be valued if Nigeria has FINISHED GOODS of value to export NOT JUST RAW MATERIALS. look at crude.oil for example. crude oil alone gives aviation fuel, petroleum etc. and the price of aviation fuel and petroleum is not the same. So why the fvck is Nigeria selling crude oil when it can instead refine these crude oil into its aviation fuel.and petroleum and and sells these components singly and make MORE PROFIT$***

Now the dilemma of all this is Nigeria gets its major forex from the sale of crude oil and now the reports ealrier said Nigeria has sold its crude oil six months into the future meaning its Nigeria major source of forex is now halted ( now unto the minor sources like agric. lolzzz. The futire becoming the past )

so how does Nigeria plan to make the sale of Dangote petroleum cheaper when the price of crude oil IN DOLLARS just jumped and the exchange rate which can made favorable in this situation is majorly done via the sale of crude oil OF WHICH crude oil Nigeria currently has and six months into the future has been sold off


now unto

BRO SCIENCE(lolzzz):

Price of crude oil is sold in dollars in the international market but Dangotes Refinery is a local market (for the people, by the people.
please dont laugh) so crude oil shouldnt be sold to Dangote in Dollars BUT IN NAIRA so that Dangote can refine and sell its refined products (Petrol) to the international market and bring forex to us and also refine for us in Nigeria and make its price cheaper AS NO DOLLAR WOULD BE LEAVING NIGERIA

ie Dangote sells his Naira to buy dollar and buy crude oil from other countries apart from Nigeria because Nigeria does not have crude oil to sell at the moment, which would make forex leave Nigeria. Even if Nigeria has crude oil, exchanging Naira to buy dollar to then buy crude oil IN NIGERIA and refine and then sell back to Nigerians IN NAIRA doesnt make actual sense. I mean, who's gonna be watching. its Nigeria oil and Dangote is a Nigerian so sell the crude oil to him in naira dooohhh. sharp sharp.

so Dangote gets crude oil in Naira without making Nigeria lose forex, refines and sells the refined product to other countries hence BRINGING FOREX into NIGERIA and 2) refines the crude oil gotten in naira and sells back to Nigerians at reasonable naira prices without factoring in dollar up and down if he were to have bought the crude oil in dollars



End note:

The "***" were my thoughts on the fly as i was writing. it just came to me lolzzz.


I stand to be corrected though with bullet proof points. This is just the second post of my many predictions not those water will wet and sun will not be cold ishh

dot dot dot

The very foundation of your analysis is wrong. Your analysis is based on Nigeria not selling any crude because it has been sold by previous administration. That is false.
A certain amount (i think 90,000 bpd) is to be used in servicing our crude oil 'debt' commitments while the remaining is sold.

Did you read the full topic

bpd means barrel PER DAY or so this 90,000bpd per day Nigeria needs to service its debt, is it fixed(like just 90000bpd) or 90,000bpd back to back in a space of days or months

or did you mean JUST 90,000 BARRELS

2) is Nigeria gonna sell its crude oil to Dangote in Dollars or Naira

Sangoamadioha1:
The very foundation of your analysis is wrong. Your analysis is based on Nigeria not selling any crude because it has been sold by previous administration. That is false.
A certain amount (i think 90,000 bpd) is to be used in servicing our crude oil 'debt' commitments while the remaining is sold.

This country don tire me.

How has dangote crashed price of diesel by selling at over 1k, same diesel that sold for less than 900 last year?

Gadafii:
How has dangote crashed price of diesel by selling at over 1k, same diesel that sold for less than 900 last year?

Maybe price crash has another meaning we don't understand. Let him come and explain.

and it sold for lesser than less of #900 the year before the last year. Apart from wailing and being pessimistic, what did you do abouf that when it happened then


Learn to appreciate what you have now and hope for the best. simple

Gadafii:
How has dangote crashed price of diesel by selling at over 1k, same diesel that sold for less than 900 last year?

Update. Seems like a late update...talk of a honest politician
Lolzzzz


Nigerian Nostra damus on the flyy

First of my name...
Breaker of chains
Father of Dragons
The unburnt
Freer of slaves

Yada yada yada

Did it once...I can do it again



Lolzzzz