Should Nigeria be ruled by the street? FRIDAY, 13 JANUARY 2012 14:34 PAUL COLLIER Nigeria is being gripped by the power of
the street. Around the world the street
has discovered its power, but it can
dance to many different tunes. In North
Africa it has been a force for good: brave
young people have struggled to topple dictators. But in America, the rise of the Tea Party
showed that many people could be
seduced into demonstrating against their
own true interest. Poor people were on
the streets urging tax cuts for the rich: a
nonsense that could only happen because of slick campaigning by well-financed
special interests. Where on this spectrum does Nigeria fit?
Well Nigeria is not North Africa. Far from
being ruled by an unelected autocrat,
Nigeria now has the most legitimate
government in its history, recently
empowered by a decent election. Instead, the current protests closely
resemble the sad folly of the Tea Party:
poor people tricked into lobbying for
greedy elites. Start from the maths. The petrol subsidy
was costing $8bn a year; in other words
it was costing the average Nigerian
household over N750 per week. Was the
ordinary household getting benefits of
anything like this amount in return: of course not. Most of the subsidy did not
reach ordinary households. Much of it was
captured wholesale by corrupt elites who
shipped cheap petrol out of Nigeria and
resold it. Even in respect of the cheap
petrol that stayed in the country, the benefits accrued disproportionately to
the rich. Owners of big cars were gaining
much more from cheap petrol than the
mass of ordinary Nigerians who do not
own a vehicle. What the street should be
focusing on is not the restoration of the petrol subsidy, but on how better to
spend that N750 per week so as
genuinely to benefit ordinary people. Not only was the petrol subsidy a scam
that benefited elites, it mortgaged
Nigeria’s future: oil was burnt up with
nothing left behind. As oil wealth is
depleted, the Government has a
responsibility of custody to the next generation. Some of the revenues from
oil must be invested in infrastructure and
other assets. This is a responsibility that
previous Nigerian governments failed to
meet. At last Nigeria has a government
which is taking its responsibility to the next generation seriously. Ask yourself
who will be the biggest beneficiaries of
that new policy? The answer is,
obviously, the young. Yes, Nigeria’s
young people should be taking to the
streets, joyously celebrating the new responsibility. Instead, they are in the
vanguard of protest, demanding a return
to plunder. This is the Tea Party Mark II:
people tricked into lobbying against their
interests. But Nigerians can take comfort from
what has happened to the Tea Party
since those heady days when it swept
the streets of America. After a few
months, many ordinary people wised up
and the Tea Party has fizzled. In its place a much smarter counter-movement has
built up, of ordinary people demanding
that the rich should pay more tax, not
less. Their slogan, ‘we are the 99 percent’,
could equally well be the slogan of the
counter-campaign that Nigeria now needs. The elite-favouring scams, the
neglect of the future, these are the
practices that have privileged the 1
percent at the expense of the 99 percent.
At last they are being consigned to
history. And that is not the only reason why
ordinary Nigerians should get back off
the streets of protest: disorder is an
opportunity for the most dangerous
groups in society. During disorder, Boko
Haram and political opportunists come out of the woodwork and pursue their
own mischief. Nigerians know all too
well what social disorder delivers: the
reaction should be ‘never again’. Nigeria’s business community has a
stronger interest that any other group in
economic responsibility and social order.
It is also the group best-equipped to
distinguish between populist rhetoric and
sound argument. At times such as this, business leaders cannot abrogate their
responsibility for social leadership: the
loudmouths of the street and the
seductive songs of opportunists must be
countered. Speak out; speak up; speak
now!