For Nigerians of my generation, who grew up in the 70's, too young to have witnessed the civil war and the horror that preceded it, but old enough to still pick up snippets of conversation about it from our parents, their friends and our relatives and browse through the old newspapers and magazines, not reading the text, but creating ours from the grainy black and white pictures of those dramatic days, the events, the images of the last few weeks will have an eerie feeling of deja vu to them.
Perhaps the most haunting images of those days were the images tracing the peace trek of the then head of state, Major General Aguyi Ironsi, even as the first pogroms in the northern cities were starting, round the power bases of the real rulers of the country he pretended to lead, the Hausa Fulani aristocracy who wined and dined him and talked of peace even as they plotted his overthrow and murder.

I remember looking through Peter Obey's great pictorial album of the civil war and the coups that preceeded it, gazing at at the picture of a smiling Ironsi and one of the Northern emirs wearing an even broader grin both waving to the crowds and my uncle looking over my shoulder and sneering in a knowing manner at the picture of the emir at him in his Yoruba inflected broken english – no min am o na dem kill am . Too young to understand the silent treacheries of .the adult world I protested with child like firmness, 'but they like each other said I how could he kill him, they are not even fighting' I continued since people who don't like each other don't share smiles they share blows as we did in the play ground, my mind in a whirl. Iwo lo mo he said with a note of what I felt was resignation to my unassailable logic, to be further confirmed by his older brother, my dad, when I told him that evening what his brother had said 'Don't mind him' my father said dismissively dismissed his kid brother. Later I heard him telling his brother off in their thick ekiti dialect and I turned satisfactorily in my bed – my precocity confirmed - of course uncle got it wrong the jolly looking man in the uniform and that man in the Arabian night robes were friends how could one have killed the other even my dad knew that -but poor uncle did not. Little did I know then that the older brother was only admionishing his younger sibling for initiating a nine year old boy into the horrors of human treachery before he was ready.

Aguyi-Ironsi was probably as well intentioned, well meaning and decent as Goodluck Jonathan, and equally hapless. A boy doing a man's job, thrown out of his depth by circumstances beyond his understanding let alone his control let alone control. A question mark of history posturing as its answer an accidental figure helplessly waiting for the accident to happen.

For it is now clear to paraphrase a great Philosopher that Nigerian history is repeating itself twice first time as tragedy and the second time as farce. Ironsi at least carried enough of an air of authority even in those old pictures to make his inevitable doom carry the ring of tragedy. Jonathan who at the best of times carries all the authority of an overworked, underpaid and harrassed primary school teacher without a cane, looked more like the Town crier of Kano, than its august visitor as he stood inefectual and impotent before the sprawling eminence of the emir last week . If the buff Ironsi, a soldiers, soldier who redeemed himself by his bravery at the point of death could not hide his weakness from the wolves of the Northern Oligarchy, one trembles of what these man eaters must make of Goodluck
As I have argued before on this website and elsewhere,The Boko Haram crisis is not about religion, it is not about al Quaeda, it is not about world wide jihad. It is about politics, Nigerian politics. Boko Haram is the armed wing of the Northern Oligarchy and the current spate of bombings and terror is aimed at preparing the ground for a coup or perhaps the forced resignation or even assassination of Goodluck Johnathan.

I will explain what I mean below

ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT SITUATION AND WHY THE OLIGARCHY ARE RAISNG THEIR HEAD
The Nigerian ruling class comprising aLl its tribes are responsible for the destruction of the country over the last 5 decades. However they are not homogeneous. This has nothing do with their personal morals or intelligence but their circumstances. All over the world rich politicians think only of themselves, What they do for the ordinary man depends not just on their own will but the willingess of the people they lead to stand up and push them. They don't take the light in London because if they did the prime minister would be impeached not because the Members of Parliament are any better, they are not necessarily, but if they didn't their homes would be stormed, their wives abused in the shop, their cars stoned in the street.

In Nigeria the social circumstances of each region has determined the level of responsibility of their leaders. Lagos has always been relatively better governed than any other state in Nigeria, even under military rule, not just because it is richer, but also because the sheer size of the city and its population and the lack of meaningful regional divisions, (you can't divide the people or Agege from say mushin, since most people there are not there by virtue of birth but circumstance) means any of its governments would have to rely to a certain extent on some social support. Revolutions always start in crowded cities – Paris, Soweto, Havana. Even Nigeria's worst and most murderous ever head of state Sanni Abacha had to give Lagos Marwa.

Due to the heavy urbanisation of the southern part of the country and the political power this brings the downtrodden, through the sheer concentration of their forces, its leaders like Awolowo, Azikiwe, Abiola and Ojukwu have been forced to better reflect the needs and demands of their people based on the simple knowledge that if they didn't they would be replaced by someone who would. If Obafemi Awolowo, inheriting a western region seething with anti colonial sedition had not pacified the masses by opening the doors of education and learning to them, another leader would have arisen who would. After the pogroms in the east such was the sense of mass anger and injustice in the east that if Ojukwu had not declared Biafra, he would have been swept aside and replaced by someone who would have such is the nature of politics.

However this rule applies less in the north of Nigeria because of the social conditions there. It is the least urbanised and developed of the regions, and the few cities that have large populations like Kaduna and Kano are effectively counterbalanced by the huge underclass there and the vast empty grasslands that dominate the north with its scattered villages and tiny homesteads where the aristocracy with the help of the imams can more easily manipulate the people. In the south the cities lead the countryside, in the north it is the other way round. Most of the northern towns are little more than glorified villages. Politics like war requires the concentration of forces to secure an edge. Where the poor and middle classes are more they exert greater pressure. It is for this reason that the rich and powerful in the north have always been political stronger than their rivals in the south.

It is the very reason why the British handed over power to them at independence. The fear was that Awolowo or Azikwe would have been compelled to pander to their base and take steps not to the liking of the western powers who wanted to control their richest African prize even after granting it 'independence' The west for instance do not want policies of free education as it makes people 'think above their station' it makes them enlightened. Allows them to think for themselves when they're betters should be doing that for them

WHY THE NORTH ARE PLANNING TO STRIKE BACK NOW
The Nigerian ruling class has always been dominated by the Northern aristocracy. its conquest of the petroleum producing regions after crushing the Biafran rebellion, gave it huge powers of patronage which it used to buy off the other sections of the elite regardless of their tribe. When money speaks it does so in one language. Nigeria richest southerners were all created in the seventies by the Oligarchy and the oil they controlled, Abiola, Okoya, Arisekola, Fernandez, Iwanyanwum, Ibru all to a man owe their wealth to the dominant hausa Fulani oligarchy and patronage they doled out, fulfilling the dream of Nigeria's most brilliant conservative politician of all time , Ladoke Akintola the ideological father of the Nigerian elite - a man before his times who dreamed of a country of two tribes only the rich and poor and to hell with the rest

However the collapse of the economy in the 1980's and the explosion of corruption destroyed its credibility and power, always unpopular even in the north, it had always relied on the military to rule. Every successful coup in the country's history has either been planed or endorsed by the oligarchy, all the failed ones have been those they opposed. However by 1993, the military had been morally and politically bankrupted, exhausted by economic bankruptcy and civilian uprisings and international isolation it fell apart in 1998 leaving the oligarchy in a quandry.

The Islamic Oligarchy retreated partly due to the June 12 unrest in the south west which although contained could not be crushed but also due to the knowledge that the world had changed. Products of the cold war, they now witnessed a global stage where Islamic fundamentalism had replaced the fear of Soviet communism as the new western enemy. From being the west's firm friends they had become like the Saudi’s, and Pakistanis, potential enemies.

To save themselves they sacrificed Abacha in a deal with the Americans that also included the elimination of Abiola. A compromise was reached and they turned to their old ally Olusegun Obasanjo. The man who had always been willing to play ball and bail out the Oligarchy when they were in trouble. Helping remove the headstrong Benjamin Adekunle without provoking a mutiny in his Awolowo supporting division that was closest of the three federal divisions during the war capital Lagos and which the Oligarchy feared could place the Yoruba chief in power there, He also rigged the Oligarchy back into power in 1979 and placed their younger officers Buhari, Babangida, Abacha in key positions allowing a return in 1983.

Obasonjo they reckoned would be a safe pair of hands. But they had overplayed their hand. In 1998 al Quada had blown up the American embassy in Nairobi. Al-Qaeda was a creation of rogue members of the Saudi and Pakistani establishment like the Hausa Fulani historical allies of the west. All Muslim elites were now suspect. The wily Obasanjo knew he had a free hand and he moved against the oligarchy in the army and economy. In September 2001, the planes crashed into the twin towers and as they say everything changed. If the oligarchy had moved against Obasanjo after September 11, American marines would have occupied Abuja - he knew it and so did they. From ignoring them, Obsanjo a former servant who had found a a new more powerful master now openly scorned them
However things have changed over the last ten years and the Oligarchy are now raising their head again, Having licked their wounds for the last 10 years and drank the cup of humiliation to the full they are now ready to move again.

But what has changed

A CHANGED INTERNATIOL SITUATION
Just as the Oligarchy overreached so have the Americans. They have lost the war ion Iraq, driven out by Muslim insurgents, they are loosing the war in Afghanistan in the process of being driven out of that country by Muslim insurgents, their positioned weakened they are being openly defied by Iran, bankrupted by endless wars and invasions its economy is in crisis, a crisis so deep that they were forced to elect a liberal black man to the highest office in the land.
America is no longer as powerful as it was 10 years ago and the Oligarchy know it.
Their calculation is that the Americans will accept the overthrow of Jonathan after initial verbal condemnation if they keep can the oil flowing. The plot is to make the country ungovernable blowing up people across the north and then present themselves as the only solution. It is like a chemist administering a poison to which only his shop sells the antidote.

To force the hands of the Americans and the west by creating the threat of Islamic induced anarchy which only their old friends the northern oligarchy can resolve and hope that a war weary west would accept them rather than see Nigeria turn to another somalia.
They might not actually physically overthrow or harm Jonathan, to prevent an explosion down south although this itself can't be ruled out, the situation is that fluid. But they could intimidate him to resign and allow his VP ( a northern arisitocrat) take over with the Americans brokering a deal. If Jonathan accepts this 'in the interest of the country' nobody in the south will be able to resist since it will appear voluntary and he will not be harmed. He'll probably go into exile to America to munch burghers write his memoirs. They will Shonekan him. But in a constituional manner. Once they assume power the Boko Haram outrages will stop as suddenly as they started. The lesson – only the Oligarchy can rule Nigeria.

If the Oligarchy decide to act it will have to be in the next couple of months when they have a window of opportunity before the American election. No sitting American president goes to war or seeks out a crisis in an election year if they are running for reselection, definitely not a black man running for re-election.
If the Oligarchy are going to make their move to install a civil regime backed regime under their control, it will be soon very soon. I smell danger ahead.

Brilliant writeup

@OP,

Incisive analysis.
BH is indeed the armed wing of the Northern Oligarchy, no more no less!

All I see is the writer urging the oligarchy to 'strike now!' Well masked as a treatise on history, but then a veiled call for the oligarchy to move on to the next stage. Yes I smell the danger too!

"All I see is the writer urging the oligarchy to 'strike now!' Well masked as a treatise on history, but then a veiled call for the oligarchy to move on to the next stage. Yes I smell the danger too!"

If you read the article properly you'd have realised that I am determined oponent of the Northern oligarchy and indeed the entire corrupt ruling class it is part of. However it was an analytical piece and that has to be objective and dispasionate. You don't defeat your enemy by being angry with him, you have to understand him and that requires analysis not sentiment, which is why in the best officer schools you are taught self control because that is the only way you can accurately assess the moves of your enemy

Claiming that such an article supports the right of the Northern Oligarchy to strike, is the equivalent of accusing a biologist analysisng the aggression of a Cobra of supporting it.

To explain is not to endorse.

Thanks

Odumorun1

odumorun 1:

"All I see is the writer urging the oligarchy to 'strike now!' Well masked as a treatise on history, but then a veiled call for the oligarchy to move on to the next stage. Yes I smell the danger too!"

If you read the article properly you'd have realised that I am determined oponent of the Northern oligarchy and indeed the entire corrupt ruling class it is part of. However it was an analytical piece and that has to be objective and dispasionate. You don't defeat your enemy by being angry with him, you have to understand him and that requires analysis not sentiment, which is why in the best officer schools you are taught self control because that is the only way you can accurately assess the moves of your enemy

Claiming that such an article supports the right of the Northern Oligarchy to strike, is the equivalent of accusing a biologist analysisng the aggression of a Cobra of supporting it.

To explain is not to endorse.

Thanks

Odumorun1

I like that!!!

If the cobra understands thebiologist's language be it verbal or sign. It can be argued and rightly so that the biologist can give a hint or clue to the cobra to strike.

The thing with some of these suggestive analysis is that readers with malicious intent will read the sign posts (especially if they are not already aware of such) and take it as a hint to strike. Pardon me if I in away suggested that you are sympathetic to the oligarchy. But that is not the case here.

At any rate, the mistake the oligarchy will make is to underestimate GEJ popularity in the core south and miscalculate. 1967 is way different from 2012, the core south bouncing back from surprises is something the oligarchy should consider factoring into their calculation. And such surprises will remain what is it - surprises!

^^^

What is "core" south?? I'm confused.

^^^
You heard it first from me. Now let's run with it!

Jonathan is a sorry excuse for President. Let him sit and expect only innocent citizens to die on his watch so he can repeat the same speech Naugthy-person. It will soon be his turn if he doesn't act and we can make speech on his behalf.

@poster
Excellent write up!
History repeats itself, doesn't it

I spoke to a General (Housa man) in the Army last year who has a mansion in St. John's Wood, Ldn. He said that is very easy to manipulate the South West becasue Yoruoba peoople make noise and protest but never carry through with action? So, he said the elite can carry on as they like and act with impunity.