2015: Where are South’s young turks?

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Friday, 25 May 2012
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Group Politic s Editor, Taiwo Adisa, previews the issue of generational shift and searches out the presumably dark horses whose entry into the 2015 presidential race could re-define the political space.

Whenever the talk is about 2015, you often hear politicians say that’s a long time to go. But the same set of people leaves that spot to begin preparations for the election that is still “a long way to go.” In essence, the journey towards 2015 has started in earnest and only the undiscerning would keep listening to the politicians’ deceptive refrain of its still a long way to go. Really in politics, boredom is a killer. The politician must be seen doing something or putting pillars of structures together at each turn, not just to keep himself busy but also to keep his followers intact. Whenever he paints a situation of inactivity, his followers scatter into the various happening fields and to recall a scattered heard when he is ready would be an almost impossible task in this terrain. Thus, just as the 2011 election process was winding down, the 2015 process was also touching the toe. And the unfolding circumstances, posturing and comments of politicians in recent times is not a deviation from the political norm.

One of the issues that would gain space for themselves in the unfolding 2015 race is generational power shift. Locked in that power shift key is also the question of generational shift. In the previous dispensations, especially in the build up to the 2007 election, the issue of power shift was taken to alarming heights. Some of the presidential hopefuls then including former Cross Rivers state Governor, Donald Duke, former governor of Abia state, Chief Orji Uzor Kalu and many others were canvassing the election of a President below the age of 50.

The belief in the camp of those who canvassed the issue vigorously then was that most Nigerian leaders of today made impact while they were under the age of 50. There are several examples they could lay hands on.

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, as military Head of State, his predecessor, General Murtala Muhammed; General Shehu Musa Yar’Adua; General and Ibrahim Babangida. Many of the top political figures of today also hit the limelight at ages far below 50. Since the under 50 campaign did not yield the desired result at the time, things are gradually being modified. It is now more of a generational shift than age calculations.

There is a tendency to make a class distinction between the generation of the Obasanjos, Buharis and Babangidas and that of those currently below 60 years of age. Those pulling the strings of calculations together would want a loose end in terms of age as far as the 2015 race is concerned. The calculation, according to sources is on which generation has had its chance to rule before now. It also dovetails into which faces have been at the helm long enough to warrant a conclusion by analysts that nothing new could be expected from such persons. While those below 65 would want us to believe that they are not part and parcel of those who have had their chances to run the country, they would also want things to work in their favour to the extent that bone of their own is raised as Nigeria’s next leader.


Be that as it may, the 2015 battle is getting multi-dimensional, with actors criss- crossing the divides in search of the desired impact. While in the North, a number of actors, including second term governors, are said to be weighing the option of throwing their hats into the ring for the 2015 contest, the same is also true of the South, which has however been unusually quiet on the surface. The silent disposition in the Southern sphere notwithstanding, a lot is believed to be passing through the presumably still waters. Faces expected from the southern challenge for the Presidency in 2015 cut across the age divide as enumerated above. A number of the actors have remained on the scene for quite a long time, while others could be painted in the garb of the acclaimed new breed politicians. Some of the names already coming through include Edo State governor, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole; Lagos State governor, Babatunde Raji Fashola (SAN), former Senate President Ken Nnamani; the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF). Senator Anyim Pius Anyim; Reverend Chris Okotie; Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu; Rivers state governor, Chief Rotimi Amaechi; former Governor of Abia state, Orji Uzor Kalu; former Presidential aspirant on the platform of the All Nigeria Peoples Party(ANPP) Chief Harry Akande; running mate of the Congress for Progressive Change(CPC) Presidential candidate in the 2011 election, Pastor Tunde Bakare and even the incumbent Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister in charge of Economy, Dr. (Mrs.) Ngozi Okonjo Iweala.

The quiet disposition of many Southern politicians to the 2015 race is said to have been largely informed by the uncertainty surrounding the whole issue. Opinions are so far divided over the possible second term ambition of President Goodluck Jonathan. While some people are of the view that he should shun the second term contest and concentrate on giving the nation a free and fair election so as to consolidate the nation’s democratic gains, others insist that the constitution actually does not bar the President from seeking re-election in 2015 though he was sworn in first in May 2010 to complete the remainder of the tenure of the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua and then in May 2011 for a full four year term. The matter has already been taken for adjudication before an Abuja High Court by one Cyracus Njoku, who claimed to be a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and is seeking a declaration of the courts banning President Goodluck Jonathan from contesting the 2015 election having taken the oath of office on two occasions. While there are those who could withdraw their perceived ambitions if Jonathan joins the race, there are also others who would remain in contest whether Jonathan joins the race or not.

Comrade Adams Oshiomhole
The incumbent governor of Edo State, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, who is currently fighting the battle of his life to ensure his reelection in July, is already seen by some forces as a likely force to reckon with in the 2015 race. Though the governor is focused on his reelection battle right now, many see him as a politician whose influence could widen beyond the shores of the state. Those in this league are not insinuating that the July 14 election would come as a walk over for Oshiomhole. Rather, they see the potential in the character of the former Labour leader as a force who could play bigger roles in the affairs of the nation.

Immediately the former President of the Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) indicated his interest in the governorship of Edo State in 2007, political observers kick started the conjecture that the man’s main destination in the power circles could be the Presidency. In view of his popularity as a labour leader and oratorical prowess, it was believed that leaders of the PDP would grab him and utilize his skills to advantage.

But while the party delayed in creating space for Oshiomhole, the opposition Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) took him up and presented him the gubernatorial ticket for Edo state. Initially, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced that he lost the election to Prof. Oserhiemen Osunbor of the PDP but after a two year legal battle; the Court of Appeal crowned Oshiomhole the governor of Edo state.

Since his emergence as governor, Oshiomhole had turned the heat on leaders of the PDP, whom he believes could stand between him and the realization of a second term ambition and by extension the liquidation of his political relevance. There are however feelers from certain quarters to the effect that whether Oshiomhole wins reelection or not, he could still be validly nominated as a possible running mate to a candidate from the North in the 2015 race. It was learnt that the possible ambition could transcend political affiliation and that the presidential hopes of a person like Oshiomhole would not necessarily be fulfilled through the party he currently belongs, the ACN.


Governor Babatunde Raji Fashola
While Fashola was busy seeking a second term ticket of his party for the governorship of Lagos in 2011, a news flash came through with the indication that he could be made to join the presidential race and team up with Mallam Nuhu Ribadu, who flew the flag of the ACN in the 2011 presidential race. It was learnt that some forces actually broached the idea with Fashola. Somehow, the governor of Lagos was said to have read through the suggestion as a plot to weed him out of the 2011 gubernatorial race in search of a wide goose in the name of presidential race. Fashola’s camp was said to have insisted that it was better to seek reelection in Lagos and leave sound memories in the state than pursue a presidential ambition which is neither here nor there.

Having survived the plot to scheme him out of the Lagos gubernatorial race in 2011, Fashola is now seen as a possible candidate for the presidential contest of 2015. There are two calculations. There are those who feel that the governor should seek the number one slot himself, while others believe that he should team up with somebody from the North to serve as a formidable ticket against whichever option the PDP would take. There is already the talk of a Fashola teaming up with the former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mallam Nasir el-Rufai, who is currently a chieftain of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC). That could be possible if the planned alliance between the ACN and the CPC pulls through but there are other challenges for that suggestion. There is the likelihood of the former Head of State, General Muhammadu Buhari and former Lagos state governor, Bola Tinubu also showing interests in the race. Although the issue of alliance between the two main opposition parties could be worked out, the issue of who takes the main slots would create further concern. Should it be the two leading characters in the two parties of their well known second in command? That is one issue that will continue to dog the heels of the Fashola for President Campaign.

Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu
After the failure of his plan to emerge a running mate to General Buhari in the 2011 presidential race, Tinubu is seen to have matured on the stage. He is believed to be warming himself up for the big title ahead of the 2015 election. Tinubu is believed to be setting up structures, oiling his joints and getting set for the 2015 race. The colour, structure and presentation of his 60th birthday anniversary was said to have been dotted by traces of the 2015 signals but there are issues also lying ahead. Will Buhari in 2015 alter his thinking about trusting Tinubu and agree to run on the same ticket with the former Lagos governor? Will Nigerians also accept a joint ticket of Tinubu and Buhari, two Muslims? And then who takes the number one slot, Tinubu or Buhari? Will age also count on the side of the two? How will the grass roots of their respective parties take it if the two leaders decide to take the top spots and what would be the fate of the rising political profiles of their immediate subordinates like el-Rufai and Fashola. Some may raise the question as to what would be the attitude of the grassroots of the South West, South East and South South to a Tinubu/Buhari ticket in relation to issues of zoning and religion. There is also the question whether if Tinubu joins the Presidential race, will he be doing so to win the seat or only to make a statement and establish himself as leader of a major opposition party? There is the thinking in some quarters that Tinubu’s main concern in the polity is the sustenance of his political legacies and relevance and not necessarily emerging the Nigerian President, if that is the case, such opinion molders would suggest, the man could take whatever offer is out there, as far as it would ensure his political relevance.

Orji Uzor Kalu
The former governor of Abia State was a strong voice on the presidential race in 2007. He led the Progressives Peoples Alliance (PPA) to make a bold statement on the presidential race, posing to showcase himself as the man to take over the mantle of leadership of the South East from the late Chief Emeka Odumegwu Ojukwu. But in the wake of the 2007 elections, the fortunes of his party has nosedived, leading to the loss of the two governors to the PDP and then a huge crack in the party’s fold. Kalu has maintained a low profile on the political scene in recent times, but his associates believe that the man is working his way back into the presidential race in 2015.

Senator Anyim Pius Anyim
The incumbent Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) is one of the hopefuls from the South who could throw their hats into the ring once the issue of President Jonathan’s ambition is resolved. If Jonathan chooses not to seek reelection, the former Senate President, could be one of the strong voices in the race in 2015. But for now, Anyim would want to be seen as concentrating on his job as the chief administrator in the Jonathan cabinet.

Dr Ngozi Okonjo Iweala
The former World Bank Chief, who is the incumbent Minister of Finance, is also a veritable voice that could be groomed for the race. Though her own possibility would also depend on the disposition of Jonathan, Iweala could pull some strings if she emerges a politician. Her recent feat of challenging the odds for the World Bank Presidency has also short her fame to greater heights internationally and that could provide a boost to market her in the domestic scene.

Senator Ken Nnamani
Having taken some steps perceived to be politically incorrect in the build up to the 2011 election, the former Senate President is said to be calculating his moves ahead of the 2015 race. He has since returned to the mainstream of PDP politics and is seen as one of those set to dictate the pace of happenings as far as the next dispensation is concerned.

Pastor Tunde Bakare
The running-mate to General Muhammadu Buhari in the 2011 election has remained a vociferous critic of the Jonathan government since the CPC lost that election. Though he has been criticized for continuously leading the Save Nigeria Group (SNG), having become a politician, he has stuck to his guns and often seeks to project himself as a civil rights activist rather than a politician that he is. There are indications that the Pastor is seeking his own platform ahead of the next election and that he could personally trow his hat into the ring instead of teaming up with another political figure.

Reverend Chris Okotie
Reverend Chris Okotie is not a new face in the presidential race but he can be classified as one of the young Turks on the field. He has led his party, the Fresh Party of Nigeria to perform rather poorly in the previous contests, but there is nothing to dissuade him from future contests as he believes that God has ordained him for the job of leading Nigeria.

Governor Rotimi Amaechi
The Rivers state governor is one of the few politicians who can be said to have had their kernel cracked by the gods. He became the governors in Rivers from practically the dead as he was already schemed out of relevance by the powers that be at the time. Somehow, the Supreme Court, in its landmark ruling brought Amaechi to live and he has since revalidated his mandate through the 2011 election. He afterwards emerged the Chairman of Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF) and has seen his profile rise in huge proportions. Lately, some forces have started linking him with a possible presidential race in 2015. Though those touting him are said to be planning that as a way of getting back to President Goodluck Jonathan if he decides to run for second term, it is not clear whether the governor has put a structure in place yet for the task. Feelers in the political scene however indicated that some forces from the North are already eyeing Amaechi as a running mate to a Northern candidate to break the monopoly of votes for Jonathan from the South South even if the President decides to run for a second term in office.

Perhaps, to further empower the raging fire, Amaechi recently paid a visit to Governor Sule Lamido of Jigawa, a visit which is already being interpreted in many ways.