₦airaland Forum

Mixed Performance, Speculative Trading, As Investors Position Full-Year Earnings

Market Update for the week ended November 9 and Outlook for Nov 12-16

The first full trading week in the month of November on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) recorded a strong buying pressure, closing on a positive note, while resisting further decline after retesting the last recent support level at 31,949.33 basis points on a lower traded volume. The undulating movement observed during the period reflected the level of indecision among players amidst portfolio repositioning and rebalancing continued ahead of the release of October inflation reports, as well as the Q3 GDP Figure and the year-end’s Santa Claus rally.

The long awaited wage increase has finally come through, with the Federal Government accepting to pay a N30,000 minimum wage, representing 66.67% increase from the current N18,000, even as the government’s revenue profile remains low, despite the recent oil rally. Implementation of this new wage may be delayed since no timeline is assigned and the government is still borrowing to finance its 2018 budget that had not in any way reflected on the economy.

The nation’s debt to GDP ratio seems low at between 20-25% but the high proportion of revenue used to service these debts is of major concern for investors and Nigerians. At the same time, corporate earnings reports released for the third quarter ended September 30, 2018, reveal the sliding earnings power of companies, thereby signaling the possibility of dividend cut across companies in some sectors.

The current market position technically supports a rebound after forming a double bottom which is subject to market forces, because the narrative has not change. Any breakdown of the support level of current NSE All-Share Index will provide great opportunity for discerning investors and traders to make money and recoup their losses.
Market players that understand market dynamics of investing in equities can without being emotional use history, patterns, seasons and cycle as a strategy for success.

Pullbacks and oversold position of the market and stocks offers a great chance to scoop great stocks, just as our medium and long-term view is bullish on the market and we feel that further pullbacks will offer great buying opportunities for the short and long run.

Nigeria’s market joins its counterparts around the globe, as major equity market posted week-on-week gains with the exception of China’s Shanghai Composite Index. In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked 2.89% week-on-week; NASDAQ, 0.73%; and S&P 500, 2.12%, despite closing low on Friday. In the UK, the FTSE gained 0.02%; while the Japanese NIKKEI notched 0.03%, even after closing lower on Friday.

Back home, trading opened for the week on a negative note losing 0.24% on Monday which was reversed on Tuesday when the composite index gained 0.33%, before Wednesday’s 0.14% slide. On Thursday the market retraced up by 0.37% again, after which it shed 0.09% Friday. This brought the week’s total cumulative gain to 0.23%, as market sentiments turned positive in the midst of profit taking and portfolio reshuffling.
Market technicals for the period were positive and mixed, on low volume traded and negative market breadth, with strong buying pressure as revealed by Investdata’s weekly Sentiment Report, showing a buy volume of 82% and sell position of 18%. The volume index of total transactions within the period was 0.80.

The energy behind the week’s performance were weak despite the demand for highly capitalized stocks as money flow index fell to 31.07bps, from 39.46bps in previous week, an indication that funds are leaving the market and some stocks on low liquidity.

Equity Indicators Last Week
The NSE All-Share index for the week gained a marginal 75.27 basis points to close at 32,200.21bps, after opening at 32,124.93bps, representing a 0.23% growth, after touching a high of 32, 253.44.11bps, from low of 31,949.33bps on low volume. Similarly, market capitalization closed at N11.76tr, from an opening value of N11.73tr, representing 0.23% value gain.

NSE ASI WEEKLY TIME FRAME
The blend of low, medium and high cap stocks topped the week advancers chart as buying interest was rekindle during the period under review.

Meanwhile, the NSEASI’s year-to-date negative returns reduced to 15.8%, just as market capitalization dropped to N1.84tr, or 13.98 % below the year’s opening value.

Mixed Sectors Indices
The sectorial performance indexes for the period were largely bearish, except for the NSE Consumer Goods and Oil/Gas that closed high. Market breadth was negative, with decliners outnumbering advancers in the ratio of 39:27, halting the bullish transition.

The week transactions in volume and value were down by 14.95% and 10.57% respectively to 1.08bn shares worth N18.2bn from the previous week 1.27bn units valued at N20.35bn, boosted by trading in financial service, consumer goods and Oil/Gas sector.

UACN and NPF Microfinance were the best performing stocks for the period, as they gained 11.11% each at N10.00 and N1.50 per share, on low price attraction and positive sentiment, while Mutual Benefits and Flour Mills lost 23.33% and 16.76% respectively to close at N0.23 and N15.40 on profit taking and reactions to their weak Q2 earnings reports.

Market Outlook
We expect mixed performance as speculative trading continue to shape activities in the short-to-medium term. However, any position taking now should be for medium-to-long term horizon especially in stocks with good fundamentals, while watching the political space, since Q3 numbers have given insights into what the expected Q3 GDP and full year company earnings power will be.

These are likely to drive prices north, or south, while determining market direction before or after Presidential election.Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

The huge decline in stocks from its January 2018 peak has not necessarily been due to the fundamentals of quoted companies, but investors flight for safety over uncertainties arising from next year’s general elections, participants will learn from experts/facilitators at the workshop, how and where to position for juiciest returns, depending on investment horizon.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/mixed-performance-speculative-trading-as-investors-position-full-year-earnings/#more

Corporate Actions On NGSE For Week Ended Nov. 9, 2018

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/corporate-actions-on-ngse-for-week-ended-nov-9-2018/#more

Investdata Price & Earnings Tracking For Week Ended Nov. 9, 2018

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/investdata-price-earnings-tracking-for-week-ended-nov-9-2018/#more

Latest Nine-Month Reports As Insight To 2018 Full-Year

The recently concluded quarterly earnings reports season of listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, as would be expected, showed actual financial health and where they really stand, going into end of their financial year.

Generally, the numbers for the period under consideration came below expectation and market forecast, especially the top line, where over 40% of them released flat profitability levels, despite the mild growth in bottom line.

It must be noted that the Q3 corporate earnings sales growth rate were very slow and weak, following through from the previous quarters’, reflecting the nation’s economic fundamentals and cycle after a recession in 2016/2017.

A look at the Q3 numbers as a whole, by matching the actual numbers with expectations, and benchmarking them against those of the corresponding period of last year, we would see an obvious underperformance by way of weakened sales revenue as mentioned earlier. Profit levels were slightly above average in the period under review, due mainly to cost cutting measures as well as extraordinary incomes, which are mostly one-off.

Amongst the banks, for example, the rising oil price before the recent pullback impacted positively on the loan book, given that a sizeable chunk of their exposure was to oil companies, as well as the power sector. This enabled players in the oil and gas to sector repay their loans, including some that had been written off and duly provisioned for, which is why some of the banks reported write-back of such previously provisioned “bad and doubtful” loans, resulting in bigger profit margins.

Positive surprises were very few in the recent Q3 earnings season, a repeat of what happened in the half-year outing, when there were a few companies with positive revenue and earnings surprises.

One thing that is not in doubt is the weak economic activities and declining economic growth rate reflected in the recent corporate earnings picture, as numbers from many notable companies in the Industrial Goods, Consumer Goods and Healthcare, among other sectors came weak. This is due to an unholy alliance of factors like high production and, or operating cost, weak purchasing power of Nigerians and unstable government policies, all conspiring to make companies listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange and many others operating in the country under-perform.

These takeaways have given insights into what should be expected by the first quarter of 2019, when the 2018 full-year audited numbers will pour in and whether the directors of these companies will recommend distribution of juicier dividends. It will also be a period when some will make a leaner offering, or regrettably, none at all. Historically too, the full-year earnings season is a time that witnesses the that attracts more participant to the equity market due to expectations of dividend rewards.

This is why how investors can play the dividend season intelligently with the help of deep research is part of topics slated for discussion at INVEST 2019 TRADERS & INVESTORS SUCCESS SUMMIT put together by Investdata Consulting Ltd.

Take advantage of low prices in the market today to position in the right stocks that would ensure you recover you lost grounds and grow your income.
To track the prices and earnings trend of selected stocks on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, see Investdata Price & Earnings Tracking for the year. It will guide you on companies with numbers trending up or down fundamentally.

You will also see those companies that are positing negative numbers.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/latest-nine-month-reports-as-insight-to-2018-full-year/

FIVE IMPORTANT LESSONS PEOPLE LEARN TOO LATE IN LIFE


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fC9p45g8Zho

What drives Nigerian economy?

Summary of Yesterday’s LBS lecture on the implications of the forth coming elections on the economy
——————

(1) External Macroeconomic Environment
(2) Domestic Macroeconomic Environment

Factors that influence the Macroeconomic Environment are;

(1) Policies
(2) Trade
(3) Capital Flows
(4) Diaspora Transfers
(5) Global Conditions

Critical outlook;

(1) Interest Rate
(2) Strength of the US Dollars
(3) Global growth prospects
(4) Price of Oil
(5) Oil production depending on stability and quota
(6) Blocking of leakages & Public finance reforms & Recoveries
(7) Right decision on MPR
( Peaceful Election in 2019
(9) High foreign reserves
(10) Budget deficit
(11) Inflation and strength of the Naira
(12) Tight Fiscal Conditions

The 2019 Elections & Your Business;

(1) Where are we now and what are the issues?
(2) Prior to Elections - Is there anything we can see?
(3) What are we looking at as a Corporate Client?

Capital Flows;
(1) For the past 3 months, we have seen Net outflow from the country
(2) CBN has re-emphasised a stable currency and are ready to support the Naira. Which means CBN will introduce higher interest rates to maintain stability and access to credit will be affected and tough, hence is not advisable to borrow now.
(3) 31% of the economy is currently contracting while the remaining 69% is what we are trying to grow.
*Not too good for the economy.
(4) We are only experiencing 7% of GDP growth in the economy.
- 4% of GDP is coming from Oil
- 3% of GDP is coming from Non-Oil
*Not good for the economy

Critical Issues during & after the Elections;

(1) What is the disposition of the Govt. in the event that it loses?
- Will there be stability & Smooth transition?
- How will key indicators react to the signals communicated by electioneering
- How will the policy conversion be re(framed) by the Elections & their possible outcome?
- New Helmsmen at CBN?
- New Administration?
- Signals communicated by first steps (including composition of “Core” or Kitchen cabinet.

How will Macroeconomic indicators respond to Electoral Uncertainty;
(1) Inflation will increase
(2) Foreign portfolios investment will decline
(3) Exchange rate instability? (Our currency now is over valued by 10%)
(4) Implications of reserves? (Threshold of reserve is $34.3B, if it goes below this value, then we have a crisis.

How do Elections affect Investors;
- Our Politicians have no ideology
- Credibility of counted votes still an Issues

Equity Market Experience Significant Correction owing to heightened domestic uncertainty;

- Market is headed SOUTH (down)

Corporate are contending with tight margin Conditions;

- Production Cost is high
- Second Qtr, we observed declining inflation in consumer prices
- Corporate margins are under pressure
- Sales growth has slowed down
- Growth has been 1.8%

Performance of sectors;

- Real Estate is badly affected
- Agriculture is growing at 1.2%
- Oil is about 9.5%
- Manufacturing is slightly below 1.2%

Conclusion;

If Elections goes on smoothly;

- Cost of funding might still be an issue
- Slow Growth will continue
- Debt Issues
- NLC wage demand
Etc

https://investdataltd..com/2018/11/what-drives-nigerian-economy.html

NGSE Investors Position In Banking Stocks, In Continued Portfolio Rebalancing

Market Update for November 7, 2018

It was another difficult and volatile session on the Nigeria stock exchange on Wednesday as the benchmark index gave up Tuesday’s rally, and when it was apparent that there was going to be no follow-through, in the afternoon especially, it took out the lows and sold off. It dropped sharply, closing below the session’s opening point on huge traded volume driven by transaction in Zenith Bank to top the day trading.

The trading session started on a green note in the morning which oscillated up and down till midday before the composite index pulled back sharply in the afternoon after touching intraday highs of 32,218.20 basis points to low of 32,083.25bps. It then retraced up in the last few minutes to close the day at 32,108.30 as motive wave 3 slowed down in the midst of low liquidity and political uncertainties as the February 16, 2019 date for the Presidential election draws closer.

The volume spike in Zenith Bank during the session with money flow index reading 78.40 from the previous day position of 44.70 points signaled the entry of institutional investors as portfolio reshuffling is ongoing ahead of December rally and 2018 full year report. It has been noted that the stock is selling below its book value, leading the sector as the stock with the highest dividend yield. Zenith Bank is currently trading above its 100-Day Moving Average, and 45% below its 52 week high.

Market technicals at the midweek were negative and mixed with huge volume traded amidst, negative market breadth and sentiments, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, which showed a sell volume of 81% and buy position of 19%. The volume index for the day’s total transactions was 1.95.
Forces behind the day’s market performance were maintained despite selloffs in high cap stocks. Money flow index for the session rose to 54.30bps, from previous day’s 50.69ps, indicating that funds are entering some stocks and at the same time leaving some stock in the midst of rebalancing.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of midweek’s trading, the All Share Index shed 45.73bps, closing at 32,154.03bps, after opening at 32,154.03bps, representing 0.14% decline, just as market capitalization was slightly down by N16.69bn, closing at N11.72tr, from an opening value of N11.74tr which represents 0.14% dip in value.

The session’s downturn was impacted by profit taking among high priced stocks like: Seplat, Lafarge Bank, Flourmills, FBNH, Zenith Bank and Dangote Sugar. This impacted the Year-to-Date returns, heightening the loss position to 16.04%, while market capitalization dropped N1.88tr since January, representing 13.89% drop, from the year’s opening value.

Bearish Sectors Indices
Sectorial indexes were largely bearish, except for the NSE Banking that gained 0.19%, in the direction. Market breadth stayed negative with decliner’s outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 23:14, to halt the previous day’s bear market.

Market activities were up in volume and value by 200.75% and 236.92% respectively to 459.14m shares worth of N9.4bn, from the previous day 149.65m units value at N2.79bn. Transaction volume was boosted by financial service stocks like: Zenith Bank, FBNH, Guaranty Trust Bank, FCMB and Access h Bank.
The best performing stocks for the midweek were Niger Insurance and NPF Microfinance that topped the advancer table by gaining 10% and 9.63% respectively to close atN0.22 and N1.48 each on a low price attraction. On the flip side, Aiico Insurance and Lafarge Africa lost 9.86% and each to close at N4.50 and N0.27 each on profit taking

Market Outlook
We expect the current oscillating trend to continue as investors digest company numbers, given that there is no new incentive for the market in November, unless and until there is a change in the narrative.

The ongoing volatility will persist as Q3 numbers assist investors and fund managers rebalance their portfolios, while watching the political space and ahead of the expected Q3 GDP and full year company earnings position. These are likely to drive prices north, or south, while determining market direction before or after Presidential Election.

Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/ngse-investors-position-in-banking-stocks-in-continued-portfolio-rebalancing/#more

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 87% sell 13% Volume Index 0.86 MFI 54.10
Access buy 0% volume index 6.15 MFI 41.35
Afrprud buy 82% sell 18% volume index 11.26 MFI 15.58
CCNN buy 0% volume index 4.51 MFI 20.01
Dangote flour buy � volume index 1.23 MFI 34.35
Diamond buy � MFI 66.76
Fbnh buy 50% sell 50% volume index 3.06 MFI 33.37
Fcmb buy � MFI 71.70
Fidelity buy � MFI 48.36
Fmn buy 0% volume index 1.28 MFI 14.61
GT buy � MFI 55.65
Hony flour buy 80% sell 20% volume index 0.70 MFI 32.94
Japaul buy � volume index 2.71 MFI 51.71
Nahco buy 0% volume index 2.95 MFI 73.77
Nem buy � volume index 2.08 MFI 32.98
Nestle buy � volume index 4.86 MFI 78.36
Oando buy 0% MFI 41.83
Regalins buy 0% volume index 3.38 MFI 27.23
Sterling buy � MFI 37.18
Transcorp buy 50% sell 50% volume index 1.03 MFI 60.93
Uba buy 0% MFI 18.06
Ubn buy 75% sell 25% volume index 6.73 MFI 74.07
Vitafoam buy 39% sell 61% volume index 6.68 MFI 28.43
Zenith buy � MFI 78.13

https://investdataltd..com/2018/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report_9.html

FirstBank, FBNQuest Take Financial Literacy To Schools On World Savings Day

In line with global practice and the mandate by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to all banks in the country to commemorate the World Savings Day, First Bank of Nigeria Limited and FBNQuest Merchant Bank, both subsidiaries of FBNHoldings, joined the rest of the world on October 31 to mark the 2018 World Savings Day.

The celebration with the theme: “what do you wish for,” involved visits to 30 secondary schools across the country’s six geo-political zones, involving over 1000 students who were imparted with knowledge of financial literacy nuggets.

The Day is in line with FirstBank’s Future First programme, specially designed to equip students with the knowledge of money management, early entrepreneurship skills, and financial independence whilst stimulating in them savings culture at an early age. Commemorating the World Savings Day is consistent with the Bank’s financial literacy initiatives.

Also, volunteers from FBNQuest Merchant Bank went further to cover and highlight how students can take advantage of investment opportunities in fixed deposits and Mutual Funds from a young age, cultivating the habit of putting money away to meet medium to long term financial goals.

According to a statement by the group, the official website of World Savings Day said: “World Savings Day or World Thrift Day was established to inform people all around the world about the idea of saving their money in a bank rather than keeping it under their mattress.”

The celebration, it said, is akin to FirstBank’s commitment toencouraging its key stakeholders, customers, to imbibe savings culture whilst having their children also carried along on the essence of savings through its youth focused products, KidsFirsts (0 – 12 years) and MeFirst (13 – 17 years) carefully designed to meet the financial targets of the given demographics.

These accounts, it stressed, ensure the accounts holders acquire the rudiments of banking and financial literacy as they grow into adulthood and they both come with exciting packages to support the financial journey of the children, enabling them learn money management from an early age.

Speaking on the World Savings Day, Folake Ani-Mumuney, Group Head, Marketing & Corporate Communications, First Bank of Nigeria Limited said ‘’FirstBank’s participation in the 2018 World Savings Day is one of our many interventions in Financial Literacy.As the Bank continues to entrench the savings culture across all its markets, it has over several years engaged in Savings Promo to encourage and reward savings whilst committing human and financial resources to the development of financial literacy among secondary school students under the auspices of the FirstBankFuturefirstprogramme.

Sharing similar views, Kayode Akinkugbe, Managing Director/CEO FBNQuest Merchant Bank said “the CBN has created an essential platform which affords us the opportunity to enlighten the younger generation on finance-related matters, and contribute to financial literacy across the nation. It’s an initiative we are very proud to be a part of, as we believe such is crucial for the sustainable development of our nation.”
“We believe that opportunities to transfer a wealth of knowledge, are crucial to the development of our economy and the sustainability of society. We therefore, take very seriously, the responsibility of equipping the next generation so they can take our nation to its next level of success”; he added.

Recently, FirstBank organised its week long Corporate Responsibility and Sustainability event themed “Touching Lives; You First” which offered FirstBank employees the opportunity to give their time and resources to the service of humanity. The week-long event was simultaneously carried-out across its business communities in Nigeria, United Kingdom, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ghana, The Gambia, Guinea, Sierra-Leone and Senegal, a testament of the Bank’s brand promise to always put stakeholder needs first, while reinforcing its role in driving sustainable development in the communities where it operates.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/firstbank-fbnquest-take-financial-literacy-to-schools-on-world-savings-day/#more

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 19% sell 81% MFI 48.05
Access buy � MFI 22.07
Aiico buy 0% MFI 39.21
Dangote flour buy 0% MFI 23.20
Dangote sugar buy � MFI 18.30
Diamond buy � MFI 66.69
Fbnh buy 8% sell 92% MFI 19.46
Fcmb buy � MFI 68.87
Fidelity buy 67% sell 33% MFI 51.13
Fmn buy 0% MFI 19.04
GT buy 0% MFI 60.30
Jaiz buy 0% MFI 75.12
Japaul buy � MFI 42.08
Lasaco buy � MFI 32.83
Nahco buy � MFI 100.00
Nem buy 0% MFI 37.99
Oando buy 80% sell 20% MFI 52.06
PZ buy 0% MFI 10.82
Regalins buy � MFI 26.72
Sterling buy � MFI 37.22
Transcorp buy � MFI 59.96
Uacn buy � MFI 79.91
Uba buy � MFI 19.76
Ucap buy 0% MFI 69.84
Uniondac buy � MFI 17.44
Wapco buy 0% MFI 14.52
Zenith buy � MFI 44.70

https://investdataltd..com/2018/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report_8.html

Yuletide: Ecobank Offers Free Int’l Fund Transfers With Rapidtransfer App

Managing Director, Ecobank Nigeria, Patrick Akinwuntan, on Monday announced zero fees for all transfers done into Nigeria on its newly launched Rapidtransfer app ahead of the coming Christmas and New Year festivities.

Speaking in Lagos, Akinwuntan spoke of plans by Ecobank “to ensure Nigerians in Diaspora get the best in class remittance service. We want to make it easy for Nigerians living abroad to send money to their loved ones at home instantly. Transfers on the Rapidtransfer app are at zero fees from now till 31st January, 2019.”

Further, Akinwuntan reaffirmed that the Ecobank Rapidtransfer app which follows a tradition of leadership in digital banking in Africa is designed to enhance remittances to Africa by drastically reducing cost, while also tackling the long, burdensome and inefficient processes Africans abroad face when sending money to their home countries.

The bank’s Managing Director urged Nigerians to tell their relatives abroad to take advantage of this new and innovative means of remitting hard earned monies home. In his words “Many Nigerians work abroad and financially support their relatives back home. The app is a safe and secure low-cost remittance solution, which ultimately will put more money into the hands of the recipient as there are no charges deducted”.

The Rapidtransfer app is touted to be a game changer for remittances to Africa. The app enables users to easily and instantly send money to any bank in Nigeria. Receivers also have the option of picking up cash at any Ecobank branch. The exchange rates are very attractive and the service is open to Ecobank and non-Ecobank customers.

Interesting features of the app include easy navigation and multi-lingual capabilities. The Rapidtransfer app is available in English, French, Spanish and Portuguese languages. Users can choose how and when funds are delivered to the intended beneficiary, with transparent foreign exchange rates prior to each transaction.
The Rapidtransfer mobile app can be downloaded from the Play Store and App Store

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/yuletide-ecobank-offers-free-intl-fund-transfers-with-rapidtransfer-app/#more

Hello Traders!
Sell alert on CCNN as the result that is supposed to support its price has been postponed until or 15th of December 2018. So let us sell and hold cash till further notice.

For your success!

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 78% sell 22% MFI 50.69
Access buy 0% MFI 21.94
Afrprud buy 0% volume index 1.60 MFI 36.87
Aiico buy 0% volume index 0.72 MFI 40.47
Ccnn buy � volume index 1.28 MFI 14.79
Dangote sugar buy � volume index 1.76 MFI 17.29
Diamond buy 50% sell 50% MFI 65.80
Fbnh buy 17% sell 83% volume index 1.29 MFI 26.26
Fcmb buy 0% MFI 68.76
Fidelity buy 0% volume index 1.65 MFI 51.13
Fidson buy 0% volume index 4.60 MFI 0.00
Fmn buy 17% sell 83% volume index 2.48 MFI 34.85
GT buy 0% MFI 65.48
Hony flour buy � MFI 37.16
Japaul buy 0% volume index 0.72 MFI 46.28
Learn buy 0% volume index 6.92 MFI 21.27
Nahco buy � volume index 2.46 MFI 100.00
Nem buy 0% volume index 1.14 MFI 49.86
Nestle buy � volume index 3.35 MFI 66.78
Oando buy 0% volume index 2.55 MFI 52.06
Prestige buy � volume index 4.77 MFI 23.22
Regalins buy 0% volume index 8.68 MFI 26.72
Seplat buy 62% sell 38% volume index 2.88 MFI 62.05
Transcorp buy 0% volume index 0.85 MFI 57.90
Uba buy 67% sell 33% MFI 17.09
Ucap buy 0% volume index 0.79 MFI 70.83
Uniondac buy � volume index 0.93 MFI 16.44
Wapic buy 0% volume index 1.85 MFI 61.48
Zenith buy 67% sell 33% MFI 44.70

https://investdataltd..com/2018/11/nseasi-buy-78-sell-22-mfi-50.html

Profit Taking, Sell-offs Persist As Investors, Analysts Watch For GDP Data, MPC Outcome

Market Update for November 5, 2018

It was a volatile session that kicked off the new trading week on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, closing this time on a negative note, as selling pressure continued among the blue chip stocks that had earlier amassed some flesh in the course of the earnings season, just as companies that posted numbers that were weak and below market expectations.

The composite NSE All-Share index fell slightly in the morning session, but retraced back up by the mid-morning, continuing to gyrate up and down through midday to the afternoon, before finally pulling back at the last minutes. It closed at 32,048.18 basis points, after touching intraday lows of 32,033.91bps, from highs of 32,182.93bps on a low traded volume. Note that transaction volume of the exchange has been on the decline since November 1.

The decreasing volume of transactions signals low activities in the market as players digest numbers that came during the just concluded earnings season, which shows the true state of various listed companies, helping to determine the outlook for investors and shareholders for year-end, as well as the possibility of dividend payment.

However, a review of the Q3 corporate earnings shows that the growth rate of top and bottom lines among companies in the service sector was better and stronger than others, due to essential services they render. This is particularly true of banks. The probability that this sector will sustain such tempo in the last quarter of the year is high, considering the faster expansion rate in the non-manufacturing sector, as shown by the October Purchasing Managers’ Index at 57 points, from 56.5 recorded in September.

PMI MovementIin Past 12 Months (Nov 2017-Oct 2018) Non-manufacturing sector


Market technicals on the NSE were negative on Tuesday, with low volume traded amidst negative market breadth and sentiment, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing a sell volume of 90% and buy position of 10%. The volume index for the day’s total transactions was 0.70.

The forces behind the day’s market performance was further weakened, reflecting a continuation of profit taking and selloff that continued at the end of the earnings season and portfolio rebalancing. Money flow index for day, moved lower at 45.19bps, from previous day’s 55.94ps, an indication that funds are leaving stocks in the midst portfolio reshuffling.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of Monday’s session, the NSE All Share Index shed 76.76bps, closing at 32,048.19bps, after opening at 32,124.94bps, representing 0.24% decline. Similarly, market capitalization lost N28.02bn, closing at N11.7tr, from an opening value of N11.73tr, a 0.24% value dip.

Attention: Investdata buy and sell signal setup is our premium advisory service. And we do like to invite you to join today, as we are beginning what I think will be a tremendous run for value stocks into the end of the year. It’s a great deal for the money. Just subscribe, and get immediate access to a WATCHLIST of stocks.

When you join, you’ll get immediate access to every recommendation–past, present and future–in the Signal Setup. And we will deliver the bigger picture and update every week, directly to you via email. We look forward to welcoming you on-board and navigating together as we continue to invest alongside the smart money, institutional players and discerning investors.

Monday’s downturn was impacted by selloffs and profit booking in high cap stocks like: NB, Lafarge Africa, Unilever, Access Bank, UBA, CCNN, FBNH, Oando, and Dangote Sugar. This impacted negatively on the Year-to-Date returns, to 16.2%, while market capitalization notched to N1.90tr, representing 14.38% drop, from the opening value.

Bearish Sectors Indices
Sectorial indexes were down, except for the NSE Oil/Gas that closed higher, even as market breadth was negative, as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 24:17, to reverse the previous session up market.

Market activities were down in volume and value by 39.99% and 38.56% respectively at 157.83m shares worth N1.75bn were traded, compared to previous day’s 258.12m units valued at N2.85bn. Trading received a boost from financial services stocks like: Access Bank, FCMB, Guaranty Trust Bank, Wapic and FBNH.

Cadbury and UACN were the best performing stocks, gaining 10%, with each closing at N9.90 per unit, on market forces and low prices attraction. On the flip side, CCNN and NNFM lost 9.36% and 9.35% respectively to close at N18.35 and N4.85 each on bearish trend and profit taking

Market Outlook
Expect the current trend to continue as investors digest company numbers, given that there is no new incentive for the market in November, unless and until there is a change in the narrative.

The ongoing volatility will persist as Q3 numbers assist investors and fund managers rebalance their portfolios, while watching the political space and ahead of the expected Q3 GDP and full year company earnings position. These are likely to drive prices north, or south, while determining market direction before or after Presidential Election.
Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/profit-taking-sell-offs-persist-as-investors-analysts-watch-for-gdp-data-mpc-outcome/#more

Profit Taking, Sell-offs Persist As Investors, Analysts Watch For GDP Data, MPC Outcome

Market Update for November 5, 2018

It was a volatile session that kicked off the new trading week on the Nigerian Stock Exchange, closing this time on a negative note, as selling pressure continued among the blue chip stocks that had earlier amassed some flesh in the course of the earnings season, just as companies that posted numbers that were weak and below market expectations.

The composite NSE All-Share index fell slightly in the morning session, but retraced back up by the mid-morning, continuing to gyrate up and down through midday to the afternoon, before finally pulling back at the last minutes. It closed at 32,048.18 basis points, after touching intraday lows of 32,033.91bps, from highs of 32,182.93bps on a low traded volume. Note that transaction volume of the exchange has been on the decline since November 1.

The decreasing volume of transactions signals low activities in the market as players digest numbers that came during the just concluded earnings season, which shows the true state of various listed companies, helping to determine the outlook for investors and shareholders for year-end, as well as the possibility of dividend payment.

However, a review of the Q3 corporate earnings shows that the growth rate of top and bottom lines among companies in the service sector was better and stronger than others, due to essential services they render. This is particularly true of banks. The probability that this sector will sustain such tempo in the last quarter of the year is high, considering the faster expansion rate in the non-manufacturing sector, as shown by the October Purchasing Managers’ Index at 57 points, from 56.5 recorded in September.

PMI MovementIin Past 12 Months (Nov 2017-Oct 2018) Non-manufacturing sector


Market technicals on the NSE were negative on Tuesday, with low volume traded amidst negative market breadth and sentiment, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing a sell volume of 90% and buy position of 10%. The volume index for the day’s total transactions was 0.70.

The forces behind the day’s market performance was further weakened, reflecting a continuation of profit taking and selloff that continued at the end of the earnings season and portfolio rebalancing. Money flow index for day, moved lower at 45.19bps, from previous day’s 55.94ps, an indication that funds are leaving stocks in the midst portfolio reshuffling.

Index and Market Cap
At the end of Monday’s session, the NSE All Share Index shed 76.76bps, closing at 32,048.19bps, after opening at 32,124.94bps, representing 0.24% decline. Similarly, market capitalization lost N28.02bn, closing at N11.7tr, from an opening value of N11.73tr, a 0.24% value dip.

Attention: Investdata buy and sell signal setup is our premium advisory service. And we do like to invite you to join today, as we are beginning what I think will be a tremendous run for value stocks into the end of the year. It’s a great deal for the money. Just subscribe, and get immediate access to a WATCHLIST of stocks.

When you join, you’ll get immediate access to every recommendation–past, present and future–in the Signal Setup. And we will deliver the bigger picture and update every week, directly to you via email. We look forward to welcoming you on-board and navigating together as we continue to invest alongside the smart money, institutional players and discerning investors. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. The number of stocks on our watchlist has increased due to the prolonged market correction. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right.

Monday’s downturn was impacted by selloffs and profit booking in high cap stocks like: NB, Lafarge Africa, Unilever, Access Bank, UBA, CCNN, FBNH, Oando, and Dangote Sugar. This impacted negatively on the Year-to-Date returns, to 16.2%, while market capitalization notched to N1.90tr, representing 14.38% drop, from the opening value.

Bearish Sectors Indices
Sectorial indexes were down, except for the NSE Oil/Gas that closed higher, even as market breadth was negative, as decliners outnumbered advancers in the ratio of 24:17, to reverse the previous session up market.

Market activities were down in volume and value by 39.99% and 38.56% respectively at 157.83m shares worth N1.75bn were traded, compared to previous day’s 258.12m units valued at N2.85bn. Trading received a boost from financial services stocks like: Access Bank, FCMB, Guaranty Trust Bank, Wapic and FBNH.

Cadbury and UACN were the best performing stocks, gaining 10%, with each closing at N9.90 per unit, on market forces and low prices attraction. On the flip side, CCNN and NNFM lost 9.36% and 9.35% respectively to close at N18.35 and N4.85 each on bearish trend and profit taking

Market Outlook
Expect the current trend to continue as investors digest company numbers, given that there is no new incentive for the market in November, unless and until there is a change in the narrative.

The ongoing volatility will persist as Q3 numbers assist investors and fund managers rebalance their portfolios, while watching the political space and ahead of the expected Q3 GDP and full year company earnings position. These are likely to drive prices north, or south, while determining market direction before or after Presidential Election.
Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/profit-taking-sell-offs-persist-as-investors-analysts-watch-for-gdp-data-mpc-outcome/#more

NGSE Indices Stay Red, As Investors Rebalance Portfolios Ahead Full-Year

Market Update for the week ended November 2 and Outlook for Nov 5-9

It was yet another mixed trading week on the Nigerian Stock Exchange last week, as investors reacted negatively to late filing of corporate earnings, many of which came mixed and below expectation, especially those from the consumer goods sector. This was coupled with profit booking by traders who positioned ahead of the reporting season which officially closed within the period under review on Wednesday, October 31.

There was sustained volatility with the composite index breaking down the strong support level to halt three consecutive weeks of up market, as the indicators declined further before making slight rebound on Friday amidst interplay of strong market forces. The down market has been blamed on the seeming lack of coordination between the economic managers and government even as the 2019 general elections draw closer.

In the period under consideration, 77 companies filed their Q3 financials which came mostly weak and mixed as three quarter of companies listed on the NSE reporting; just as 80% presented weak or flat Earnings Per Share (EPS); while 68% presented weak/declining sales. The earnings growth rate for the just concluded season was the second lowest since 2014. The NSE’s Price/Earnings Ratio also suffered a decline due to the relatively low prices of stocks, despite the weak and mixed earnings posted in the period.

Stock markets around the world were mixed in the past week, as U.S stocks closed higher on strong earnings and economic data to offset the ongoing political risk as more third quarter earnings flowed in.
Back home, the market opened the week with 0.88% gain, which was short-lived as the NSE ASE shed 0.08% on Tuesday, followed on Wednesday and Thursday by the 2.12% and 1.42% loss respectively, before Friday’s 0.37% rebound. This reduced the week’s cumulative loss to 2.38% as market sentiments changed on weak numbers and profit taking.

The week’s market technicals were negative and mixed, judging by the low volume traded, negative market breadth and strong selling pressure as revealed by Investdata’s weekly Sentiment Report, showing a sell position of 92% and sell position of 8%. The volume index for total transactions within the period was 0.93.

Momentum behind the week’s trades were marginally strengthened despite the selloff, as money flow index increased to39.46bps, from 38.69bps in previous week, an indication that funds entered some stocks, while exiting others amidst portfolio rebalancing.

Equity Indicators Last Week
The NSE’s benchmark All-Share index for the week shed 782.39 basis points to close at 32,124.94bps, after opening at 32,907.33bps, representing a 2.39% decline, after touching a high of 33, 577.11bps, from low of 32,006.65bps on low volume. Similarly, market capitalization closed at N11.73tr, from an opening value of N12.03tr, representing 2.38% value depreciation.

The advancers table for the period was dominated by penny stocks as traders took profit at the end of earnings reporting season.
Meanwhile, the NSEASI’s year-to-date negative returns reduced to 16%, just as market capitalization stood to N1.94 billion which represented 14.56 % below the year’s opening value.

Bearish Sectors Indices
The performance of sectorial indices during the week was bearish, as all closed lower due to general selloffs. Market breadth was negative as decliners outweighed advancers in the ratio of 50:18, halting the bullish transition.

Market activities for the period were mixed as volume fell to 1.27bn shares from the previous 1.45m units, valued at N20.35bn, up from the previous N15.26bn, with transactions boosted by trading in financial service, consumer goods and conglomerates stocks,
The best performing stocks for the period were Presco and Neimeth, which gained 12.52% and 11.11% respectively at N59.85 and N0.60 per share, on market forces, while Unity Bank (READ MORE) and Dangote Flour shed 21.11% and 21.09% each to close at N0.71 and N5.80 on reactions to their weak earnings reports.

Market Outlook
We expect mixed performance this week, as selloff and repositioning continued, as investors and fund managers interpret the Q3 filings to enable them rebalance their portfolios, while watching the political space and analyzing the numbers expected to give an insight into expectations for Q3 GDP and full year company earnings power.

These are likely to drive prices north, or south, while determining market direction before or after Presidential election. Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://investdata.com.ng/2018/11/ngse-indices-stay-red-as-investors-rebalance-portfolios-ahead-full-year/#more

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 10% sell 90% volume index 0.70 MFI 45.15
Access buy 0% volume index 1.74 MFI 22.01
Afrprud buy � volume index index 1.24 MFI 49.77
Dangcem buy � MFI 69.88
Dangsugar buy � volume index 1.84 MFI 4.67
Diamond buy 11% sell 89% MFI 65.82
Fbnh buy 46% sell 54% volume index 1.53 MFI 19.99
Fcmb buy � MFI 68.32
Fidelity buy 50% sell 50% MFI 53.74
Fidson buy � volume index 7.07 MFI -0.00
FO buy 0% volume index 1.62 MFI 77.53
GT buy � MFI 67.92
Honyflour buy � MFI 37.92
Japaul buy 0% volume index 1.53 MFI 46.28
Lasaco buy 0% volume index 4.56 MFI 34.93
Lawunion buy � volume index 0.89 MFI 71.21
Oando buy 0% volume index 0.98 MFI 64.46
Presco buy � volume index 9.75 MFI 98.99
PZ buy 0% volume index 3.43 MFI 11.29
Transcorp buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.90 MFI 56.99
Uba buy 0% volume index 1.06 MFI 7.98
Ucap buy � volume index 2.67 MFI 75.55
Uniondac buy 0% volume index 1.06 MFI 18.20
Wapco buy 0% volume index 0.72 MFI 14.81
Zenith buy 50% sell 50% MFI 28.25

https://investdataltd..com/2018/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report_6.html?m=1

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 8% sell 92% volume index 0.95 MFI 67.87
Access buy 0% MFI 27.70
Aiico buy 0% volume index 1.47 MFI 33.34
Dangote Cement buy 0% sell 65.84
Dangote sugar buy 0% volume index 1.50 MFI 40.32
Diamond buy 56% sell 44% MFI 73.56
Fbnh buy 0% volume index 1.86 MFI 43.33
Fcmb buy 0% volume index 0.87 MFI 13.58
Fidelity buy 83% sell 17% volume index 1.18 MFI 58.94
Fmn buy � volume index 0.81 MFI 19.06
Glaxo buy 0% volume index 2.07 MFI 0.00
GT buy 64% sell 36% volume index 1.85 MFI 52.95
Hony flour buy 17% sell 83% volume index 3.54 MFI 21.95
Japaul buy 0% volume index 0.96 MFI 41.26
Lvstk buy � volume index 1.19 MFI 68.14
Mben buy � volume index 1.87 MFI 79.63
Oando buy 40% sell 60% volume index 1.27 MFI 70.24
Regalins buy � volume index 5.60 MFI 60.45
Transcorp buy � volume index 0.73 MFI 68.81
Uacn buy 75% sell 25% MFI 84.73
Uba buy 33% sell 67% MFI 17.58
Unilever buy 0% MFI 80.77
Uniondac buy 0% volume index 3.91 MFI 27.13
Zenith buy 71% sell 29% volume index 1.54 MFI 37.07

https://investdataltd..com/2018/11/investdata-daily-sentiment-report.html

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 45% sell 55% volume index 1.37 MFI 69.12
Access buy 0% MFI 27.74
Aiico buy � volume index 1.70 MFI 37.85
Dangote Cement buy 52% sell 48% volume index 7.74 MFI 66.17
Dangote flour buy 0% volume index 3.41 MFI 24.95
Diamond buy 94% sell 6% volume index 1.88 MFI 73.04
ETI buy 0% volume index 2.59 MFI 32.72
Fbnh buy 5% sell 95% volume index 1.66 MFI 45.66
Fcmb buy 0% volume index 1.65 MFI 14.22
Fidelity buy 75% sell 25% MFI 69.47
GT buy 0% volume index 2.57 MFI 52.37
Hony flour buy 0% volume index 0.83 MFI 24.53
Jaiz buy 0% volume index 0.81 MFI 16.40
Japaul buy � volume index 2.83 MFI 42.56
Lvstk buy 0% volume index 0.92 MFI 69.51
Nascon buy 0% MFI 76.03
Nestle buy 0% volume index 1.10 MFI 69.65
Oando buy 0% MFI 55.63
Transcorp buy 80% sell 20% volume index 0.96 MFI 65.81
Uacn buy � volume index 2.34 MFI 89.54
Uba buy 0% MFI 17.47
Unity buy 0% volume index 3.72 MFI 23.05
Wapco buy 0% volume index 1.08 MFI 7.01
Wapic buy 0% volume index 1.47 MFI 83.42
Wema buy 0% volume index 0.74 MFI 57.75
Zenith buy 11% sell 89% MFI 43.23

https://investdataltd..com/2018/10/investdata-daily-sentiment-report_54.html

Will Your 2019 Investment Plan Succeed by Accident.

If you insist on leaving your fate to the gods, then the gods will repay your weakness by having a grin or two at your expense. Should you fail to pilot your own ship, don't be surprised at what inappropriate port you will find yourself docked.

Serious investors refuse to let go their quest for financial freedom either in a bull or bear market. They chew on it just as a dog chews on the same old bone for hours.

Just as a dog guards the bones safely when not actively chewing it, serious investors nurture their investments against all odds in the market. That is, they follow instructions of the expert to know exactly when to take action on the market.

However, the true mark of a serious investor are.

1. An ability to sense which stocks are like to yield the best ROI when the real bull market is commencing.

2. Your confidence that you will definitely make a difference in the market.

3. A rugged persistence that will keep you going when others would give up.

Hence, your success in your 2019 financial year is not in the hands � of the government but in your own hands. So, make the decision to do whatever it takes and get the best out of 2019 through proper planning.

So, plan for the 2019 investment year.

Happy Trading,
Ambrose Omordion
https://investdataltd..com/2018/10/will-your-2019-investment-plan-succeed.html

Investdata Daily Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 99% sell 1% MFI 67.49
Access buy 50% sell 50% MFI 26.18
Aiico buy 0% volume index 3.27
MFI 25.39
Dangote Cement buy � volume index 3.27 MFI 54.82'
Dangote flour buy 0% volume index 0.85 MFI 43.78
Diamond buy 0% volume index 1.32 MFI 73.59
Fbnh buy 67% sell 33% volume index 1.47 MFI 43.65
Fcmb buy 0% MFI 15.84
Fidelity buy 25% sell 75% volume index 0.73 MFI 72.68
Fmn buy 0% MFI 41.10
GT buy � volume index 1.33 MFI 41.80
Hony flour buy � MFI 25.06
Stanbic buy � volume index 1.48 MFI 72.38
Sterling buy � MFI 15.07
Transcorp buy 50% sell 50% MFI 65.52
Uacn buy 0% MFI 79.70
Uba buy � MFI 18.39
Wapic buy � volume index 1.05 MFI 83.01
Wema buy 0% volume index 0.77 MFI 65.46
Zenith buy 90% sell 10% volume index 1.52 MFI 46.88

https://investdataltd..com/2018/10/investdata-daily-sentiment-report_30.html?m=1

Transcorp: Beat Market Expectations, Sustains Q3 Earnings Up Trend


There is no doubt that capacity building efforts and continued investment by Transnational Corporation of Nigeria (Transcorp) group in the recent past have started yielding results as reflected in its recently released full-year 2017, and quarterly earnings reports released so far.

This was further demonstrated significantly by numbers contained in its unaudited financials for the nine months ended September 31, 2018, which was once again boosted by the increased capacity in the power and hospitality business segments.

Transcorp Power Limited expanded generation capacity from 505 megawatts to 701mw, and hopes to further raise it to 800mw and ultimately supply 25% of Nigeria’s power needs. Also, Transcorp Hilton is banking on increased patronage, a result of which it recently invested about $100m on infrastructure upgrade to position ahead of the ongoing political season, leading to May 29, 2019.
It may not be surprising in the midst of such ambitious target which it prepares to meet and surpass, that Transcorp Group’s turnover for the period under review grew by 40.71% to N79.56bn, from N56.76bn in 2017. This is adduced to the efficient sales and production drive which impacted on inventory size by 48% thereby freeing up returns.

Cost items continued to decline in line with management’s cost efficiency drive as shown in profit margin ratio of 20.06% up from 14.42% in the previous nine months, resulting in profit before tax of N17.72bn, a significant 96.02% growth over the N9.04 billion posted in 2017. Despite the significant 104.7% rise in tax expenses to N1.75billion, net profit stood at N15.96bn, representing 95.02% jump, when compared with N8.19bn in 2017.


Transcorp is a conglomerate, comprising distinct business divisions engaged in: hospitality, power and oil & gas sector. The numbers revealed that the power division continues to significantly impact revenue, contributing 68%, while hospitality logged 29%. The huge exposure by the group to the power business is expected to drop significantly by next financial year, when the group’s oil and gas prospecting license could become operational.

Gross profit margin came in higher at 48.1%, compared to 47.6% in 2017, and better than the 45.3% of second quarter 2018, indicating improved production efficiency, while the 16.3% Quarter-on-Quarter drop in the costs of gas and other fuels for the power plant significantly accounted for the decline in cost of sales (-11.9% QoQ) in Q3’18. Effective Earnings Per Share (EPS) for the period, based on the above reported net income, came to 39kobo, compared to 20kobo in Q3 2017.

These numbers produced Earnings Yield of 31.42% over the current market price as at the release date of the financials, even as Book Value improved to N2.70, up from the N2.35 achieved in the corresponding nine months of 2017. Investors’ waiting period has dropped significantly on the strength of the improved earnings power and now stands at 1.06x, from the 2.32x in the comparable period.

Given that management has effectively improved on the group’s track record, surpassing the 2017 full-year performance level in Q3 of 2018, we expect a higher payout at the end of the current financial year.
With the company’s Book Value at N2.70, we have conservatively valued each unit of Transcorp Plc at N3.80. And recommend a Buy, for traders and investors seeking to play the stock by its trend and expected 2018 full year performance.

Technical View

The price action revealed that the stock have been trending down since January 19, 2018 to recent reversal in August 31, 2018 forming invert head and shoulder chart pattern that support uptrend. Market sentiment before the ongoing earnings season have been negative due to weak economic fundamental and political risk as revealed by price action of Transcorp. With the current retracement wave and improving fundamentals of the company, market players should look the way of the stock. Investors with long investment perspective should key in at this low price.

Company History
In the power sector, Transcorp Power Limited (TPL) is the entity that resulted from the merger of Ughelli Power Plc (UPP) and Transcorp Ughelli Power Limited (TUPL) (both located in Delta State) in November 2015.

Note: In 2012, TUPL won the bid to acquire UPP, one of the six power generation companies of the unbundled Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) when it was privatised by the Federal Government. TPL has successfully increased the plant’s functional capacity from pre-acquisition level of 169mw in November 2013 to 634mw, which is close to pre-acquisition maximum capacity of 670mw set by the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE) with plans to grow it to over 3,000mw over a five-year period.

Transcorp Hotels Plc is the group’s hospitality subsidiary and currently owns Transcorp Hilton Abuja and Transcorp (Metropolitan) Hotels Calabar. In addition,Transcorp has signed a management agreement with Hilton Worldwide to commence the development of a Transcorp Hilton Ikoyi, Lagos, as well as the Transcorp Hilton Port Harcourt. The completion of strategic expansion projects to upgrade current hotels and develop new hotels will result in Transcorp having the largest number of hotel rooms by any investor in Nigeria.

In the oil & gas sector, Transcorp Energy Limited, a fully owned subsidiary, established in 2008, oversees a joint venture agreement with Sacoil Holdings Limited (Sacoil) to develop its OPL 281 asset in collaboration with Energy Equity Resources Limited (EER). Production is expected to commence on this asset before the end of 2018

2018 Performance Analysis
On quarterly basis so far, the company’s earnings power continues to trend up from its Q1 position of 16 kobo EPS, to 27 kobo by half-year, and 39 kobo in the nine-month period, driven by the nature of its service in driving consumer and national economic activities. Arising from the forgoing, we project 2018 full year EPS to be in the region of 50 kobo, with a dividend possibility of 10 kobo per share in the bid by management to remain prudent. while creating value for stakeholders.

Five Years Performance Analysis
Transcorp’s performance over the past five years has been mixed and unstable, reflecting the different challenges it faced under previous owners and managements, especially in the its tortuous formative years during which its price collapse from N10 each, to 50 kobo, which was then the floor. There was however a turnaround in 2017. Revenue recorded a CAGR of 65.31% between 2013 and 2017. Notably, growth here was impacted by the power division’s contribution, resulting from the Ughelli Power acquisition in 2013.

Book Value expanded by a 5-year CAGR of 10.42% from N86.68bn in 2013, while historical dividend payout revealed inconsistency since it started paying in 2013, indicating that the Company has rewarded its shareholders three time in the last five financial year.


Estimated Performance Ratios
Transcorp’s Earnings Per Share for the five-year period has been undulating, reflecting the unstable business environment in the various sectors the company operates in. The amount earned per share increased from 18 kobo in 2013 to 26 kobo in 2017 after declining first to 9 kobo in 2014 and then 5 kobo in 2015, before sliding into negative position of 3 kobo in 2016. The relatively low price and improving earnings have reduced investors waiting period to 7.09x at the market value as at released date, after it had recorded a high Price/Earnings Ratio of 41.01x in 2014.

Book value for the period has grown from 2.24 in 2013 to 2.35, which is reflecting a fair value at the market price. Other performance ratios are mixed while some are looking down, especially the Return On Capital Employed and Profit Margin, indicating high cost of operations before reversing up on improved earnings performance in 2017.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/10/transcorp-beat-market-expectations-sustains-q3-earnings-up-trend/#more

NGSE Indicators Soar, Investors Upbeat, Despite Poor Showing By Late Filers


Market Update for October 29, 2018

Monday’s was a strong volatile session on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), as the week started positive, while extending three consecutive days of uptrend as more companies hastened to release their quarterly earnings reports ahead of midweek’s statutory deadline for submission of quarterly filings for the period ended September 30, 2018.

The numbers filed during Monday’s trading session showed mixed in performance, even as they came well below market expectations, especially the scorecards from bellwether stock- Nigerian Breweries, and Aiico Insurance, which further confirmed the impact of weak economic activities and dwindling productivity in the nation.

Market indices opened on the downside in the morning, oscillating up and down until midday, when it bounced up significantly by afternoon on the strength of price appreciations of high cap stocks in the banking and Industrial Goods sectors. The benchmark NSE All-Share index subsequently hit intraday highs of 33,200.37 basis points, from lows of 32,735.98bps, before pulling back to finish the session at 33,196.02bps. Volume Traded however remain low and has been declining over the last three trading sessions.

The benchmark index broke out the 45 Day Moving Average to test recent resistance level, while forming a double top or a breakout, depending on market forces in the next trading session.

The seeming uptrend had triggered a 3-wave, very sharp rally, taking the NSE up nearly 1% from the bottom to the top. It actually took back the entire loss at one point during the day, despite some profit-taking.
Market technicals for the day were positive, but mixed as volume traded was low amidst par market breadth and strong buying pressure, as revealed by Investdata’s Daily Sentiment Report, showing a buy position of 99% and sell volume of 1%. The volume index for the day’s total transactions was 0.68.

The energy behind the day’s market performance was further strengthened as more scorecards were released to the market, just as money flow index for the session attained a new peak since May 16, 2018, at 67.49bps, from previous day’s 59.68bps, an indication that funds are entering some stocks as the month and earnings season draw down.

Index and Market Cap
The NSE ASI ended the day’s trading with a gain of 288.74bps to close at 33,196.07bps, after opening at 32,907.33bps, representing 0.88% growth. Similarly, market capitalization was up by N105.41bn to close at N12.12tr, from an opening value of N12.01tr, representing a 0.88% value gain as bargain hunting increased at the peak of earnings season.

Attention: Investdata buy and sell signal setup is our premium advisory service. And we do like to invite you to join today, as we are beginning what I think will be a tremendous run for value stocks into the end of the year. It’s a great deal for the money. Just subscribe, and get immediate access to a WATCHLIST of stocks. When you join, you’ll get immediate access to every recommendation–past, present and future–in the Signal Setup. And we will deliver the bigger picture and update every week, directly to you via email.

We look forward to welcoming you on-board and navigating together as we continue to invest alongside the smart money, institutional players and discerning investors. To become a member, send ‘YES’ or ‘STOCKS’ to the phone numbers below. The number of stocks on our watchlist has increased due to the prolonged market correction. Take advantage of this service to buy right and sell right.

Monday’s upturn was driven by buying interest in low, medium and high cap stocks like: Dangote Cement, Guaranty Trust Bank, Zenith Bank, UBA, FCMB, Wema Bank, Forte Oil, Honeywell and Transcorp. This impacted heavily on the Year-to-Date returns, which reduced the loss position to 13.07%, and market capitalization to N1.49tr, representing 10.86% drop, from the opening value.

Mixed Sectors Indices
Sectorial index performances were largely bullish, except for the NSE Insurance and Oil/Gas that closed red due to profit booking. Market breadth was flat as advancers are equalwith decliners in the ratio of 17:17, to continue three day uptrend.
Market activities were mixed as volume decline 4.31% to 150.5m shares, from previous 280.33m units, while value was up to N2.88bn, from previous day’s N1.96bn, with transactions boosted by trading in financial services stocks like: Zenith Bank, Guaranty Trust Bank, FCMB, FBNH and Fidelity Bank.

Consolidated Hallmark Insurance and Lasco Assurance were the best performing stocks, gaining 10% and 6.67% respectively to close at N0.33 and N0.32 per share, on low price attractions. On the flip side, Unity Bank and Diamond Bank losing 10% and 9.7each to close at N0.81 and N1.30 each on market forces and profit booking.

Market Outlook
Expect repositioning and short term profit taking as more companies present their numbers which has remained mixed in their performance and increased volatility to continue, if the numbers beat market and analysts forecast.

The ongoing Q3 earnings reports would assist investors and fund managers rebalance their portfolios, while watching the political space and analysing the actual numbers that will give insights into expectations for Q3 GDP and full year company earnings power. These are likely to drive prices north, or south, while determining market direction before or after Presidential Election.

Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.

However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

The huge decline in stocks from its January 2018 peak has not necessarily been due to the fundamentals of quoted companies, but investors flight for safety over uncertainties arising from next year’s general elections.

In today’s equity market, there is wisdom in being able to identify ‘buy’ opportunities very early and sell for maximum returns, while minimizing loss in any market situation.Understanding the dynamics of the stock market during any cycle is the very key to successful trading and investing. For this to happen,we must arm ourselves with knowing the essential driving forces behind the market as they move up and down.


Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/10/ngse-indicators-soar-investors-upbeat-despite-poor-showing-by-late-filers/#more

Guinness Nig: Healthy Financials, Weak Ratios, Safe For Long-Term Outlook


Company: GUINNESS NIG. PLC
Rating: Hold
Current Market Price at Earnings Release: N80.50
Intrinsic Value: N57.96
Latest Cash Div: N1.84
By: Jeariogbe Tunde Segun (Equity Analyst)

Key Financial Tickers
• This report considered the financial performance indices of Guinness Nigeria Plc for the full-year ended June 30, 2018, compared with figures for corresponding period of 2017.
• Note the increase in shares outstanding within the two periods compared in this report.
• Recall that Guinness Nigeria undertook a rights issue of 684,494,631 ordinary shares of 50k each at N58 per share on the basis of five new units for every 11 held as at the close of business on March 15, 2017.
• At the end of the offer, the issue was oversubscribed by 116%. Based on this, at listing of the rights issue, the company’s share outstanding rose from 1,505,888,188 shares to 2,190,382,819 units. The new shares arising were subsequently listed on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) in October 2017, after the release of its that year’s audited financials.

Strength
• Guinness is a leading alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage companies operating in Nigeria with the dominant market share in the stout segment.
• The Company’s strong market share in the brewing industry is supported by a good brand name, technical & product quality assistance from its parent company and an established Route to Market (RTM) strategy.
• Renown and diverse brands
• Qualified management team
• Strong support from parent company – Diageo Plc
• Dominant leader in the stout market
• Good cash-flow

Weakness
• Inadequate working capital
• Declining profitability that now requires attention

Challenges
• Weak operating environment
• Rising raw materials cost as a result of local currency devaluation
• Stiff competition for products in the value segments, especially from smaller competitors
• Shrinking effective disposable income of consumers.


Corporate Figures
• Guinness Nigeria recorded higher Turnover in the review period, compared to 2017. Total turnover for the year was estimated at N142.97 billion, 13.55% above the previous N125.91 billion.
• After expenses, it achieved N13.386 billion Operating Profit for the year, 31.41% over the N10.186 billion posted last year
• Finance Income was estimated at N2.201 billion, as against N2.253 in 2017, while Finance Cost was N5.644 billion, down from the N9.777 billion of prior year. It is important to note that the drop in Finance Cost was due to the Rights Issue mentioned earlier.
• Profit before Tax therefore stood at N9.943 billion, which is 273.51% above similar figure in 2017 financial document
• Having deducted Tax Expense for the year, Total Income reported for the year stood at N6.717 billion, as against N1.923 billion is similar session of 2017, representing a N249.20% growth
• Similarly, Total Comprehensive Income was negatively impacted by the defined benefit plan accrual loss, patched by Tax Credits on other comprehensive loss. The figure is therefore estimated at N6.685 billion, compared to N1.888 billion in 2017
• Retained Earnings improved over the period by 17.51%, from N33.228 billion to N39.045 billion
• On the balance sheet, Total Assets grew by a marginal 4.94% to N153.254 billion, compared to the N146.038 billion last year.
• Nevertheless, Total Liabilities outstandingly dipped to N65.666 billion, same as 36.30% below the N103.095 billion posted at the end of 2017 financial year
• Net Assets climbed to N87.588 billion, improving by 103.96%, from the previous N42.943 billion reported in 2017.


Liquidity/Risk Ratios
• Commendably, the firm stood at an admirable point in its Latest Debt to Equity Ratio. Presently, we have estimated debt to be 9.27% of Equity, which is 84.64% below the industrial average of 60.35%. We expect this to further boost investors’ confidence.
• The firmness of Guinness Nigeria’s Liquidity level was further established by its Current Ratio estimated above unity at 1.27x and above the industry average at 1.07x. It is important to note that this is a confidence booster to its suppliers and other creditors.
• Fairly above its peers, beta value stood at 0.99, as against 0.65 industry average indicate lower volatility than the market
• Although far below the industrial average of 2.73x, Guinness still has enough strength to service its interest yielding liabilities as at when due. Note that it is strictly advised that, unless the company improves its financial strength, assessing interest yielding liabilities should done at the highest confidence of profitability.


Profitability Ratios
• Cost of Sales margin is currently estimated at 65.99% 7.08% above the 61.63% estimated last year.
• Profit Before Tax margin is 6.95%, other 3x the 2.11% margin estimated in the 2017 financial data.
• Similarly, Profit Margin tripled that of Q1-2017.
• We have currently estimated 4.70% as against the previous 1.53%
• Return On Average Equity is currently estimated at 7.67% far above the 1.32% achieved in 2017
• Return achieved on Average Assets is now 4.38% as against 1.32%
• This confirms the higher profitability rating by the management of Guinness Nigeria. We are of the opinion that despite the improvement achieved in the company’s profitability ratios, more effort is needed to build up these ratios, which further confirms both the effectiveness of the company and its management.


Efficiency Ratios
• To test management efficiency, the Asset Turnover was gauged and the Ratio improved marginally by 8.20% from 86.22% to 93.29%.
• Also tested was the Equity Turnover, currently at 163.24% as against the 293.23% estimated in 2017. Note that the rights issue proceeds further impacted the drop.
• In other words, the equity was multiplied 1.75x through the 2018 financial- year activities, far below the 3.40x in 2017.
• It was also estimated that Fixed Assets turnover is same as 144.94% above the 141.78% estimated in 2017.


Investment Ratios
• Following same trend as in the company figures, the amount earned per share of Guinness Nigeria through the 2018 financial performance, rose by 140.07% against the comparable period of 2017. The current EPS estimate is N3.07 compare to N1.28
• The said EPS produced a yield of 3.81% of the current market price as at the time the result was released to the market.
• Price Earnings Ratio (PE/Ratio) is currently estimated at 26.25x, as against the previous 62.05x. Although this is mainly used in confirming investment recouping time, it is also a measure of investors’ sentiments level on the share price of Guinness Nigeria; going by the reduction observed, it implies a decline in sentiments
• Two ratios confirming an overpriced position of each share of Guinnessshare on the floor of the Exchange are the Price to Book Value (P/BV) and the Book Value (BV).
• Since P/BV stood above one (1) it implies that the share unit is theoretically overpriced. Confirming this further is the estimated BV of N39.99as against the market price of N80.50 (as at the released of the current full year result).
• Nevertheless, going by the high level of sentiment in favour of the company, we arrived at a higher price as shown below.
• Note that the N1.84 cash dividend reported by the management in the 2018 financial year is same as 60% of the amount earned per unit.
• Thus, we have estimated a Sustainable Growth Rate of 3.07%.


Valuation
• Our analysis reveals that Guinness is a company with good financial conditions and strong capacity to repay obligations on a timely basis.
• Nevertheless, since our analysis is strictly programmed to guide investors through the process of achieving the best returns from their investments, we have remained conservative in our valuation of each unit.
• Thus, we valued each units of its shares at N57.96, which betrays an overpriced condition when put side by side with the current market price of the company’s shares.
• Nevertheless, due to the growth noticed in its performance in recent times, and the empowerment achieved through the last rights issue, we have Rated Guinness shares a HOLD.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/10/guinness-nig-healthy-financials-weak-ratios-safe-for-long-term-outlook/#more

YOUR TRADING PLAN IS ESSENTIAL

What is the first thing that you do when you want something with an intense desire? When you want it so bad you can taste it? When you can feel the desire in your bones? When you’re driven by a desire that leaves you hungry for it? With this kind of emotionally passionate focus, you automatically begin to think about “how” you can get it. In other words you begin to plan.

The “how” or “plan” charts the way to achieving the desired item…no matter what it is and no matter how small or large. Planning is essential to the process of achievement and without it you would come as close to accomplishing the goal as you would if you were to be blindfolded and spun around and given a bow and arrow to hit a bullseye 100 yards away. Trading requires planning at both the macro level (the big picture) and the micro level (the small picture or plan for every trade).

Now, many of you reading this article are trading without a plan. That’s very unfortunate … for you! If you don’t have a macro trade plan and you are trading then you are “out-of-sequence” in your trading process. Your success as a trader depends on a number of items that include market knowledge, a set of rules, money management and risk management, and self-discipline to explicitly follow these trading necessities.

Your plan would include all of these elements and others to construct a vehicle that is designed for getting the results you want. Without a macro stock trading plan you lack the “big picture,” the overview map that holds the “how” you would proceed. Furthermore, what are you telling yourself to justify not having a macro trade plan? Here are some examples:

I have no idea how to write one,
I don’t consider it necessary,
It’s boring and time consuming,
Successful traders don’t have plans
I have a mental plan.

Of course, there are all types of excuses, but the bottom line is that they are excuses, and they are standing between you and setting yourself up for getting effective trading results.
Let’s take a look at some of the essentials that would go into your macro trade plan.

1. Create a cover sheet with the name of your business and this will establish the intention of treating your trading like the real business that it is. Your cover sheet and name may seem inconsequential, but having an emotionally focused label is powerful.

2. Establish your purpose for trading, the compelling reason why you want to trade. You’ll want to tie this to the what-matters-most in your life in order to “harness” the passionate energy associated with it. Things like family, friends, personal freedom, and those things you’re “hungry” for. Answer the questions: I want to learn to trade because… My primary objective of learning to trade is… These objectives are important to me because… I believe I can achieve my goals because…

3. Identify your trading style in order to help you define your risk management strategy and the tools you’ll use to trade. Answer these questions: My trading style is… I have chosen this style because…

4. One of the toughest obstacles in trading is not the market, but rather the trader, him or herself. A simple personality profile questionnaire will help you determine your strengths, weaknesses, how you handle losses and your expectations. There are many resources available on the web to help you evaluate your personality. Then answer these questions: My greatest strength is… My greatest weakness is… Potential problem areas are…

5. Goals should be set to help you evaluate your progress, and give you a target for which to aim. These goals should be both mechanical data (direct and indirect information related to the markets) and internal data (mental and emotional) goals. An example of a mechanical data goal would be to beat the S&P 500 index in returns over a 12 month period. An example of an internal data goal would be to read 1 book every 2 months to sharpen your trading knowledge.

6. Identify the markets you want to trade; that is, those markets that your personality resonates with. Also, determine the details of these markets for instance, Forex because you live on the West Coast and you’re a night owl and you particularly like the British Pound vs. the Japanese Yen pair. Finish these sentences: I will trade the following instruments… I am trading these instruments because… My trading times will be as follows…

7. Make sure that your technology is up to date, free of bugs and with an IT (information technology) person on call in case your computer goes down. Trading online demands a powerful and reliable system. Ensure that you have one and that it is backed up. Additionally, get a strong internet provider…cable preferably. Going further you’ll want a trading platform that you trust both for data streams and for accurate fills.

8. Effective routines lead to good habits. Create a routine for the beginning, middle and end of your trading session; i.e., pre-market routines for both mechanical data (research, news, zones, time frames, indicators) and internal data (meditation, taking your emotional temperature, and lowering stress levels in order to be focused and ready for the trading trenches.)

9. Gauging your risk is critically important at all times. Categorize what you can control and determine how you will manage it. For example, having limits on every trade you enter. The prime directive is to protect your capital at all times. Limits such as having a max number of shares/lots/contracts per trade; having a max loss per trade; and identifying a max loss per day are very important. Complete these sentences: I will gauge my risk on each trade by… I will risk only _____ on any one trade… My daily stop loss will be… Once my stop is reached, I will…

10. Have your protocols (strategies, procedures, setups and entry rules) spelled out. Many strategies exist for trading, and every one does something different. What will your approach be? What tools will you use when you trade (mechanical/internal)? Complete the following phrases: My primary reason for entering into a trade will be… My secondary reason for entering into a trade will be… My ideal setup would be…

11. Your review process is just as important as what you put into your macro trade plan. Weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly reviews would not be too much. Remember it’s a living document meaning that it evolves as you do and you’ll want to have an intimate relationship with it. It is your trusted vehicle for taking you and your A-Game to success. Ask yourself these questions:

What securities are you trading more consistently?
What indicators work best for you?
Are you adhering to your stop loss plan?
Are you achieving your trading goals?
What times do you trade best?
What is your optimal share size?

Yes, planning is of paramount importance and if you put the time in to construct a good macro trade plan you will have laid out your road map to getting the results that you want. If you haven’t written your plan yet or if it is not a strong model, then stop trading and do it now. Your success is too important to trade by default; i.e., just doing what you feel without a plan…you want to design your path and include everything that you’ll need for that journey. Remember success is where preparation meets opportunity.
Happy Trading

Best Regards,


Email Disclaimer: All information contained in this e-mail and any files transmitted with it are strictly confidential and only intended for the use of the recipient(s). Any review, retransmission, dissemination or other use of, or taking any action in reliance upon this information by anyone other than the intended recipient(s) is prohibited. If you have received this e-mail in error please notify the sender immediately and delete the entire communication, including any attachments. Any e-mail sent to or from this address will be received by Hantec Global Ltd’s corporate e-mail system and is subject to archival and review by someone other than the recipient.© 2018 Hantec Global Ltd. All rights reserved.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/10/your-trading-plan-is-essential/#more

Volatility Ahead, As Investors Review Q3 Financials, Amidst Month-End Rebalancing

Market Update for the week ended October 26 and Outlook for October 29-Nov 2

Positive market reaction to third quarter earnings as a result of low prices of equities last week supported the third consecutive week of uptrend, not minding that most of these numbers failed to live up to investors’ expectations. Research by Investdata shows that over 70% of the Q3 filings were mixed after a top-down analysis of the numbers.

Over a half of them reported weak, or even flat revenue, while some reported negative and disappointing numbers that caused their share prices to slip lower. The results have also, however painted a true and fair view of Nigeria’s gloomy economic situation, even before the economic data is released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

Figures from the stocks of financial service providers, especially the banks were fairer, due to rising oil price in the international market that boosted loan recovery and reduced exposure to the oil sector. Such write backs automatically booster the profit levels, given that such loans had earlier been provisioned for. The reduction in impairment charges over the period lifted bottom-lines of most banks.

The low level of sales and lack of penetration into new markets by manufacturing sector, as seen through their financials for the period under review, is also an indication of saturation in existing markets and/or the weak purchasing power among Nigerians who now are probably consuming less or foregoing most of these consumer items, due to their low disposable income.

Global markets also recorded mixed performance last week, as U.S stocks moved sharply lower after third quarter earnings failed to meet investors’ forecast, despite the seeming strong economic data and the low forward Price/Earnings ratio at below 16x, which is lower than its five-year average.

Back home, over 30 listed companies filed their quarterly scorecards on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), as volatility persisted resulting in mixed performance after opening for the period on a positive note on Monday when it gained 0.34%, which was sustained on Tuesday when the index gained 0.57%, before suffering a sharp pull-back by midweek, losing 2.37%. There was mild 0.44% recovery on Thursday, which was improved upon with Friday’s 1.10% notch on mixed sentiment and increased traded volume driven by earnings season.

Market technicals for the week were positive but mixed as volume traded was high amidst negative market breadth and strong buying sentiment as revealed by Investdata’s weekly Sentiment Report, showing a buy volume of 62% and sell position of 38%. The volume index for the period total transactions was 1.06.

The energy behind the weekly market performance was strengthened on increasing number of earnings released and renewed buying interest. The money flow index increased to38.68bps, from previous week 28.93bps, an indication that funds entered some stocks in the midst of low liquidity and earnings season at its peak.

Equity Indicators Last Week
At the end of the week trading, the NSEASI gained 65.64bps to close at 32,907.33bps, after opening at 32,841.69bps, representing a 0.20% growth. Similarly, market capitalization closed at N12.03tr, from an opening value of N11.99tr, representing a 0.20% value gain.

NSE WEEKLY INDEX MOVEMENT
Low cap stocks dominated the week top advancers table as blue chip stocks resisted decline on the seeming third quarter earnings season.
Meanwhile, the NSEASI’s year-to-date negative returns reduced to 14.12%, just as market capitalization improved to N1.58tr negative returns, or 11.79% below the year’s opening value.

Mixed Sectors Indices
Sectorial performance indexes were largely bullish, except for the NSE Consumer goods and Industrial Goods that closed lower due to profit taking. Market breadth was negative as decliners outnumbered advancers in ratio of 35:26 to continue the up market.
The weekly market activities were up in volume and value by 5.32% and 0.73% respectively to 1.45bn shares worth N15.26bn from the previous week 1.38bn units valued at N15.15bn.

Transactions were boosted by trading in financial services and conglomerates stocks, while Diamond Bank and Law Union, were the best performing stocks, gaining 20% and 16% respectively at N1.44 and N0.58 per share, on low price attractions, while Mcnichols and Lafarge Africa lost 30.51% and 13.10% each to close at N0.41 and N18.25 on market forces and reactions to their negative earnings reports.

Market Outlook
We expect mixed performance with short-term profit taking underway as more companies present their numbers, at a time several of the results have showcased mixed performance. Volatility could however continue, if the numbers beat market and analysts forecast.
The ongoing Q3 earnings reports would assist investors and fund managers rebalance their portfolios, while watching the political space and analysing the actual numbers that will give insights into expectations for Q3 GDP and full year company earnings power. These are likely to drive prices north, or south, while determining market direction before or after Presidential Election.

Investors should review their positions in line with investment goals, strength of the company numbers and act as events unfold in the global and domestic environment.
However, we would like to reiterate our advice that investors should go for equities with intrinsic value,
We advise investors to allow numbers guide their decisions while repositioning in any stock, especially now that stock prices remain volatile amidst mixed company, economic and market fundamental.

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/10/volatility-may-linger-as-investors-review-q3-financials-amidst-month-end-rebalancing/

Investdata Price & Earnings Tracking For Week Ended October 26, 2018

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/10/investdata-price-earnings-tracking-for-week-ended-october-26-2018/

Corporate Actions On NGSE As At Friday, October 26, 2018

https://investdata.com.ng/2018/10/corporate-actions-on-ngse-as-at-friday-october-26-2018/

Investdata Weekly Sentiment Report

NSEASI buy 62% sell 38% volume index 1.06 MFI 38.68
Access buy 0% volume index 1.67 MFI 21.85
Afrprud buy � MFI 54.08
Aglev buy 0% volume index 1.09 MFI 11.94
Aiico buy � MFI 61.29
Berger buy � volume index 0.84 MFI 12.19
Betaglass buy 0% volume index 0.73 MFI 11.41
Cadbury buy � volume index 2.42 MFI 20.09
Cap buy 0% MFI 52.02
Caverton buy 0% MFI 47.16
CCNN buy 50% sell 50% MFI 76.66
CIleasing buy 0% MFI 86.01
Custodian buy 0% MFI 69.03
Cutix buy 0% volume index 1.13 MFI 53.13
Dangote Cement buy 69% sell 31% volume index 1.09 MFI 26.44
Dangote flour buy 0% MFI 45.39
Dangote sugar buy 60% sell 40% MFI 37.90
Diamond buy 83% sell 17% volume index 2.23 MFI 67.62
ETI buy 87% sell 13% volume index 2.12 MFI 8.59
Fbnh buy 0% MFI 67.17
Fcmb buy 0% volume index 4.20 MFI 45.14
Fidelity buy 95% sell 5% volume index 0.85 MFI 63.02
Allum buy � MFI 80.01
Fmn buy 0% MFI 39.71
FO buy 91% sell 9% MFI 32.07
Glaxo buy 0% MFI 59.66
GT buy � volume index 1.17 MFI 59.30
Hmarkins buy � MFI 54.37
Hony flour buy 7% sell 93% volume index 2.04 MFI 9.30
Jaiz buy 0% MFI 47.12
Japaul buy 50% sell 50% volume index 0.87 MFI 30.51
JBerger buy � volume index 1.83 MFI 48.24
Lasaco buy 67% sell 33% MFI 24.77
Lawunion buy � volume index 1.59 MFI 10.65
Learn buy 0% MFI 69.45
Lvstk buy 0% MFI 42.03
Mansard buy 0% MFI 90.78
Nascon buy 0% MFI 31.26
Neimeth buy 71% sell 29% volume index 2.68 MFI 48.49
Nem buy 67% sell 33% MFI 91.08
Nigerins buy � MFI 74.32
Oando buy 83% sell 17% MFI 46.00
PZ buy 5% sell 95% volume index 0.83 MFI 12.74
Red buy 0% MFI 4.75
Regalins buy � volume index 2.30 MFI 30.55
Royalex buy � MFI 12.31
Sovereins buy 0% MFI 44.56
Stanbic buy 0% MFI 16.28
Sterling buy � volume index 2.66 MFI 47.68
Total buy � MFI 54.63
Transcorp buy 12% sell 88% volume index 1.03 MFI 49.45
Uacp buy � MFI 38.80
Uacn buy 0% volume index 6.18 MFI 31.84
Uba buy 25% sell 75% MFI 37.59
Ubn buy 50% sell 50% MFI 40.87
Ucap buy � MFI 34.01
Unilever buy 0% volume index 2.03 MFI 51.54
Uniondac buy 0% MFI 73.48
Verita buy 0% MFI 35.12
Wapco buy 15% sell 85% volume index 1.31 MFI 17.38
Wapic buy 40% sell 60% volume index 1.38 MFI 51.16
Wema buy 0% MFI 24.14
Zenith buy 77% sell 23% MFI 69.78

https://investdataltd..com/2018/10/investdata-weekly-sentiment-report_29.html

TRADERS & INVESTORS SUCCESS SUMMIT

Attention! Attention!! Attention!!!
Investdata Consulting Ltd presents The 8th edition of its TRADERS & INVESTORS SUCCESS SUMMIT tagged: INVEST 2019, designed to be the biggest yearly workshop for stock market traders &investors in Nigeria.

Theme: Adopting The Billionaire’s Mentality In Stock Selection.
Venue: Ostra Hotel & Hall, Alausa, Opposite NNPC Gas-Plant Ikeja Lagos.
Date: Saturday, December 8, 2018.
Time: 10a.m.

The huge decline in stocks from its January 2018 peak has not necessarily been due to the fundamentals of quoted companies, but investors flight for safety over uncertainties arising from next year’s general elections, participants will learn from experts/facilitators at the workshop, how and where to position for juiciest returns, depending on investment horizon.

Previous editions have attracted participants from diverse class of investors and traders, as well as several world-class professionals and experts as speakers and facilitators, including representatives of quoted companies and stockbroking firms. The event has helped market players to effectively time opportunities for higher returns in the New Year.

In today’s equity market, there is wisdom in being able to identify ‘buy’ opportunities very early and sell for maximum returns, while minimizing loss in any market situation.Understanding the dynamics of the stock market during any cycle is the very key to successful trading and investing. For this to happen,we must arm ourselves with knowing the essential driving forces behind the market as they move up and down.

At the INVEST 2019 TRADERS & INVESTORS SUCCESS SUMMIT (TISS) you will discover some seldom considered aspects of investing and trading that can help you bag more big winners, while ratcheting down the number of losers in 2019 and beyond.
This summit will provide answers to these six crucial questions AND others

• What exactly is it we are trying to do as traders & investors?
• What occurs every post-election year that we wish to take advantage of?
• What are the prevailing market moves and who are the dominant players?
• What is ‘smart money’ doing?
• Where should we look to enter the market or exit?
• Is it the same every day, season and year?

When you answer these important (and frequently overlooked) questionscorrectly, your trading/investing skills will launch into new levels.
For Registration kindly send YES or REG to 08028164085, 08032055467, and 08111811223 now for details.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
https://www.facebook.com/events/320536552075449/

TRADERS & INVESTORS SUCCESS SUMMIT

Attention! Attention!! Attention!!!
Investdata Consulting Ltd presents The 8th edition of its TRADERS & INVESTORS SUCCESS SUMMIT tagged: INVEST 2019, designed to be the biggest yearly workshop for stock market traders &investors in Nigeria.

Theme: Adopting The Billionaire’s Mentality In Stock Selection.
Venue: Ostra Hotel & Hall, Alausa, Opposite NNPC Gas-Plant Ikeja Lagos.
Date: Saturday, December 8, 2018.
Time: 10a.m.

The huge decline in stocks from its January 2018 peak has not necessarily been due to the fundamentals of quoted companies, but investors flight for safety over uncertainties arising from next year’s general elections, participants will learn from experts/facilitators at the workshop, how and where to position for juiciest returns, depending on investment horizon.

Previous editions have attracted participants from diverse class of investors and traders, as well as several world-class professionals and experts as speakers and facilitators, including representatives of quoted companies and stockbroking firms. The event has helped market players to effectively time opportunities for higher returns in the New Year.

In today’s equity market, there is wisdom in being able to identify ‘buy’ opportunities very early and sell for maximum returns, while minimizing loss in any market situation.Understanding the dynamics of the stock market during any cycle is the very key to successful trading and investing. For this to happen,we must arm ourselves with knowing the essential driving forces behind the market as they move up and down.

At the INVEST 2019 TRADERS & INVESTORS SUCCESS SUMMIT (TISS) you will discover some seldom considered aspects of investing and trading that can help you bag more big winners, while ratcheting down the number of losers in 2019 and beyond.
This summit will provide answers to these six crucial questions AND others

• What exactly is it we are trying to do as traders & investors?
• What occurs every post-election year that we wish to take advantage of?
• What are the prevailing market moves and who are the dominant players?
• What is ‘smart money’ doing?
• Where should we look to enter the market or exit?
• Is it the same every day, season and year?

When you answer these important (and frequently overlooked) questionscorrectly, your trading/investing skills will launch into new levels.
For Registration kindly send YES or REG to 08028164085, 08032055467, and 08111811223 now for details.

Ambrose Omordion
CRO|Investdata Consulting Ltd
info@investdataonline.com
info@investdata.com.ng
ambrose.o@investdataonline.com
ambroseconsultants@yahoo.com
Tel: 08028164085, 08032055467
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