₦airaland Forum

Zebrudaya

Clarus

@danjohn, I forgot to attach it. It is attached now. Just minor, Buhari won't survive much in the South east, scare tactic will work very well there. If you remember northern riots and Igbo casualties.

Good job @danJohn
I cannot fault you have done because they are based on your 'educated' guess.

I only made a correction in the South east entry.
However if you remember that the 2003 election was fully rigged, this will hold if we also assume that the rigging will be repeated.

But because we are looking free and fair election (hopefully), the dynamics will surely change. The only places you can predict with about 70% certainty is the Sokotos and the Kanos in the north and the Rivers and Bayelsas in the south.
The other regions can be close calls as well as block votes.
We shall see.

victor Osuagwu

save. . .no

Abeg save yourself. . waiting for ladies to save

e no get hand to save himself

save

save

^ And what was the crowd like when BB visited?

Oh I forgot they are still planning to start

Jarus:
No, I'm not jubilating, I just did my analysis based on reality, which was glaring. Will I say because the reason is not sound enough, I'll be blind to it? Will I say all is well with Kaduna North people and Sambo because what they are nursing against one another is less than noble? Does saying what is obvious amount to endorsement?

And where you shot yourself in the leg, you mentioned 'southern Kaduna' factor? What is motivating the Southern Kaduna people if not because Yakowa(current PDP governor) is one of their own(ethnicity) and GEJ is a Christian(religion)? Southern Kaduna factor, like the northern Kaduna factor, is nothing but religion and ethnicity. And in the final analysis, teh northern Kaduna, based on theri numerical strenght, are carrying the day.

It's no endorsement, it's a statement of reality, of fact.

NO I did not shoot myself in the leg because I know that politics of ethnicity and religion is still very rife in most part of the country especially in the North. You are the one who said you do not like to bring in those factors where as in your own word, it is the reality on ground.

Yes I mentioned the southern factor because of the religious and ethnicity issues. Therefore I do not understand how I have shot myself in the leg .

I do agree with you that  the numerical strength of the Northern Kaduna will work to their favour but that is if we assume that everybody from Northern Kaduna now hates Sambo. My bros, that is a huge and dangerous assumption if you are vying for a political office.

Again this is Nigeria where people pay allegiance to money rather than objectivity (this is not good). With the right amount of money, the governor even though a southerner will get some of  the Northern local chiefs to his side if not all of them.  

Yes they may begrudge him but I do believe that the hatred will be all encompassing. Anything is possible with religion in the north anyway.

Jarus:
I don't like to discuss politics that border on religion and ethnicity.
But it may interest you to know that the grudge of the northern Kaduna people against Sambo is his betraying them to become VP, paving way for a Christian from Kaduna South, to become governor for the first time. So it's not about his being Muslim or Hausa but allowing to happen what they have always guided against. That's their grudge against him. They see him as a betrayer, as a traitor, because of personal desire to become VP, he left the state in teh hnads of a Christian. That's their grudge against him. Like I have been saying, feelers from there have it that Sambo may not win in his Kaduna registration centre(although he can/should win in his native Zaria compound).

I wish we can discuss politics devoid of ethnicity and religion. I knew about that grudge but being a VP is an advantage to any people and it is celebrated. But if they cannot celebrate his new position because of religion, why will you be shy to bring it in since it is the major factor in this instance. You are jubilating that a state will not vote for a candidate because they were 'betrayed' religiously not due to political reasons. Is that right Jarus? I thought voting would have been based on merit. Now according to you they are going to vote based on religious sentiment which is what you have been against and it still gladdens your heart. . . Right?

^ That's why Democracy is good. You a choice! You have a say!

Jarus:
Sambo my foot. Sambo is seen as a traitor in Kaduna and info I ahve over there has it that he may not even win his ward(in Kaduna).
Southern Kaduna? Yes, I know GEJ will make some impact there, but you know they are less than 35% of Kaduna population, the reason they have not been able to produce elected governor.

I still stand by my vow: If GEJ wins Kaduna, I'll resign as NL mod. I'm serious.

Well I do not have the information you have however I do know that governors do have a lot of influence in elections.
Lets say they see him as a traitor but they have a governor who was his deputy. Do they also see him as a traitor? What % of Northern Kaduna people see him as a traitor?

Lets say that he wins 30% out of the 35% in the south and 30 % of the remaining 65% in the north still love him, then GEJ will have 60%.
Do not forget that Sambo is still Hausa and moslem, two factors that influence the vote of an average core Northerner.

Your business is seasonal

[quote author=Ms. Potato link=topic=613124.msg7821037#msg7821037 date=1298963472]Nobody is being agrresive over here. People read the topic and people answered based on their life experiences. WHat else do you want people to say if not based on that? ANd I dont remember any posts here being aggresive apart from Agaba's.


Its just Ms Potato. Not Irish. So everyone is expected to be perfect and make no mistakes when reading and posting right? [/quote]Oh you mean it is Ms. Irish potato. . oops! just said that again . Yea that's expectation even if one cannot be.

Jarus:
[size=14pt]IF GEJ WINS THE BOLDED, I WILL RESIGN AS NAIRALAND MOD. Quote me.[/size]

I cannot say for Katsina, that will be a had nut to crack but for Kaduna, well you cannot rule out SAMBO effect and the southern Kaduna influence.

Jarus:
I honestly don't agree with you. I don't believe the end justifies the mean. The mean, like the end, should be clean. This is why Buhari is perhaps the only politician that has refused to join the corrupt men, all because he wanted to become president. GEJ should have steered clear of - or at least must be seen as such - the IBBs, Objs, Iboris, Alams, Tony Anenihs if he truly  wants to be seen as abhorring corruption.

That view is not popular but trust me if GEJ was not there, the corrupt people would have gone for another person who they will definitely rig in.

Now tell me, would you be thinking of winning the election if GEJ has not been liberal and has insisted that he is all free and fair election? Trust me you would not have much faith in BB having any impact.

But GEJ set the ball rolling. If he had steered clear like you said, you would not dream of what you dreaming of now.
You do not use force to remove a boil in the scrotal sac.

DeeJay20:
If GEJ wins it would be nice for him to extend a olive Branch to Buhari/Bakare
and form a Parnership, a kind of Unity Government, that why Buhari & Bakare get to prove themself in a specific area,

That's not necessary, we will need s strong opposition even if there is interparty relationship

One problem I have with GEJ is romance with all the well known bad guys.
On a second thought I realised that he needs the political structures of these evil guys that still have serious followership to win. IBB has his die hard fans and  Atiku has his own structure and good followership too.
I do think it is wise for him to accommodate them to win and after which he will leave them for dead on the runway.
#Whether he will be able to do that is a matter for another day.
I think he is just being wise. if this assumption is true and he can add some urgency when he gets elected, then he would have done well.

The advent of pentecostal churches
The relegation of Catholic church
The pentecostal churches are not lasting the distance.
Just halfway, their actions have overshadowed the 'evils' of catholic church yet they are busy condemning the catholic Church.

Sugar coating of a bitter kola can only postpone the bitter taste.