₦airaland Forum

The camps of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Anambra State governor, Peter Obi, have rejected the push by a political pressure group, G-100, for opposition parties to field a single presidential candidate against President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 election.

Sunday PUNCH gathered that while both camps recognise the need for greater cooperation among opposition parties, neither appears prepared to surrender its presidential ambition as the proposed opposition coalition takes shape.

The development could complicate the efforts of G-100, a group convened by former Director-General of the Progressive Governors Forum, Salihu Lukman, which has been advocating a united opposition front as the most realistic strategy for defeating the ruling All Progressives Congress.

However, the positions emerging from the camps of Atiku and Obi suggest that reaching an agreement on a single presidential candidate may prove more difficult than mobilising the opposition parties around a common agenda.

Speaking with Sunday PUNCH on Saturday, Atiku’s Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, said the former vice president had moved beyond discussions about merely convening an opposition summit.

He noted that the ultimate decision would be left to Nigerians based on the policy alternatives presented by the presidential candidates.

“We have moved beyond this conversation.
Atiku has brought to the table the policy alternatives, including what he would do with petroleum subsidy if elected. His policies are about the people and they are not hidden. Come January 2027, Nigerians will make their choice.
This is where we are today,” he said.

He urged Nigerians to assess the presidential candidates on the basis of their policy proposals when the time comes, insisting that Atiku remained the most prepared opposition politician to take over the affairs of the country.

Obi’s camp also believes the former Anambra governor has the credentials and political support required to challenge Tinubu.

The former Anambra State governor, who contested the 2023 presidential election on the platform of the Labour Party, has since joined the NDC as the opposition realignment ahead of 2027 gathers momentum.

While the NDC has welcomed the G-100 initiative, it rejected the suggestion that the opposition must necessarily present a single candidate to defeat the APC.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Osa Director, said the group deserved commendation for seeking to unite the opposition, but argued that the country’s electoral history demonstrated that an incumbent could be defeated without all opposition parties merging behind one presidential candidate.

“Under a multi-party democracy, it is possible for one of the parties to defeat a sitting president.
It happened in 2015 and it was only fragments of the All Progressive Grand Alliance and the Peoples Democratic Party that teamed up to form an alliance with the All Progressives Congress and they were able to defeat President Goodluck Jonathan.

“So, the NDC is not going into the 2027 election with that self-defeatist approach that the opposition cannot defeat the APC unless all the parties come together,” Director said.

While rejecting the argument that a single candidate is the only route to victory, the NDC spokesman made it clear that his party had already settled on who it considered the strongest candidate should the opposition eventually agree to a coalition presidential ticket.

On the question of a consensus candidate, Director said, “We have made the point clear that we should choose the best candidate in the opposition and we in the NDC believe that Peter Obi is the best if he is allowed to lead the coalition. This is our position.”

The competing positions underline one of the central difficulties confronting the opposition ahead of 2027: whether the parties can agree not only on the need to work together, but also on who should lead the proposed alliance.

The disagreement is particularly significant given that Atiku and Obi are among the leading opposition figures positioning themselves for the presidential contest.

Both have substantial political followings, but their emergence from different political platforms means that any consensus arrangement involving either man would require difficult negotiations over the presidential ticket, party structure and the distribution of political interests within the proposed coalition.

The G-100 has maintained that the overriding objective is to prevent the fragmentation of opposition votes and provide Nigerians with a credible alternative to the APC.

The group’s proposed August 31 summit is expected to provide a further test of whether the various opposition interests can move from broad agreement on cooperation to concrete decisions on structure, platform and leadership.

However, efforts to obtain an update on the preparations for the summit were unsuccessful, as Lukman neither answered calls to his telephone nor responded to messages sent to him on WhatsApp.

AhmedPeacemaker:
Are you aware that two more “fake agencies” have now been uncovered by the ICPC in Tinubu's Government?

And no, I am not talking about the widely discussed Presidential Foreign Intervention Promotion Council saga involving Prince Adeniyi Adeyemi Matthew.

Apparently, that was only the beginning.

The ICPC has now reportedly uncovered another organisation, the National Brands Development and Made-in-Nigeria Special Project Office, allegedly operating without the required presidential authorisation.

But what makes this one particularly interesting is where it was allegedly operating: inside the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation, the SGF.

President Tinubu has now ordered the immediate arrest of Prince George Buchi Nwabueze, who is alleged to have promoted the organisation. But that is not all.

The President has also ordered the immediate suspension of three Permanent Secretaries: M.S. Danjuma, Engr. Nadungu Gagare and Richard P. Pheelangwah, over the matter.

And then, just when you think that is enough, another allegedly fictitious agency, the Foreign Investment Promotion Agency and Public-Private Partnership, has also surfaced in connection with the wider ICPC investigation.

Well, like you, nothing shocks me anymore.

But honestly, if these allegations are eventually established, there is something deeply troubling about the pattern emerging here.

We have spent years talking about corruption, ghost workers, inflated contracts and phantom projects.

Now we are apparently discovering phantom government agencies.

Agencies that allegedly have names, offices, officials and enough institutional presence to create the impression that they are legitimate arms of government.

And this is where the matter becomes bigger than the individuals involved.

Because one man can wake up tomorrow and invent an organisation. That is understandable.

But how does an allegedly fictitious government agency get close enough to the centre of government to operate from within the SGF's office?

How does it acquire recognition?

How does it gain access?

How does it survive?

And how many people have to look the other way, deliberately or otherwise, before something that does not officially exist begins to look like it does?

That, to me, is the real story.

The President's decision to order the arrest of the alleged promoter and the immediate suspension of three Permanent Secretaries is certainly significant. But Nigerians should hope this investigation does not end with “we have caught the man.”

We need to understand the system that allowed the man to get this far in the first place.

Because if a fictitious agency can allegedly find a place inside government, then the question is no longer simply:

“Who created the fake agency?”

It is:

“Who was running the real government while the fake one was operating?”

contigiency:
The 2027 presidential election is increasingly shaping up as a three-way contest between Bola Tinubu, Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar. But the more I examine the emerging political structure, the more I believe that one of the most important features of the election may be this:

Atiku Abubakar remaining in the race could substantially improve Peter Obi's chances of defeating Bola Tinubu.

This may sound counterintuitive. After all, Atiku remains one of Nigeria's most experienced politicians and has a strong following, particularly in the North. But elections are ultimately about the distribution of votes, not simply the popularity of individual candidates.

Atiku's northern strength may work against Tinubu

The APC currently has a formidable political structure across the North. It controls many state governments and has an extensive political network at federal, state and local levels.

If Atiku were not contesting, a significant proportion of his northern supporters would likely have to choose between Tinubu and Obi/Kwankwaso.

Given the APC's organisational strength in the North, it is reasonable to assume that a substantial portion of those votes could move towards Tinubu.

Atiku's presence therefore creates a third pole.

Instead of having a straightforward Tinubu-versus-Obi contest in which the APC could consolidate much of the northern vote, Atiku can retain a significant portion of the traditional northern opposition vote.

That could prevent Tinubu from converting APC's enormous northern political structure into an overwhelming presidential advantage.

In other words, Atiku does not necessarily have to win the election to influence who wins it.

But Atiku's 2023 southern advantage is no longer guaranteed

This is where the 2027 election could be very different from 2023.

Atiku's strong performance in states such as Akwa Ibom, Osun, Bayelsa and others in 2023 cannot simply be transferred to 2027.

He was running under the PDP, which had substantial political structures in those states. The political landscape has since changed considerably, with prominent PDP figures and structures moving elsewhere.

Atiku is now running under the ADC.

Meanwhile, Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso are contesting as a single ticket.

That matters enormously.

In 2023, Obi and Kwankwaso competed separately. In 2027, their political strengths are being combined.

The implication is that Obi can potentially retain his strong southern base while gaining a significant northern constituency through Kwankwaso.

The Obi-Kwankwaso combination changes the equation

This may be the single biggest difference between 2023 and 2027.

Peter Obi's major weakness in 2023 was not a lack of enthusiasm or support. It was the absence of a sufficiently strong political structure outside his strongest regions.

He also had no major northern political figure on his ticket.

That has changed.

Kwankwaso brings an established northern political network and demonstrated electoral strength, particularly in Kano. In 2023, he won almost one million votes in Kano alone.

Those votes are no longer competing with Obi.

They are potentially part of the same presidential ticket.

The combination therefore gives Obi something he did not have in 2023: a credible national coalition with significant strength in both the South and parts of the North.

The South-South could become a major problem for Atiku

I would also revise the assumption that Atiku will automatically retain much of the South-South because he won several states there in 2023.

Consider Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa and Osun

Atiku won the three states in 2023, but the political circumstances are now different.

Atiku will not be running under the PDP, rather, under a weak structured and relatively unknown ADC.

At the same time, Obi remains highly competitive across the South-South.

My current assessment therefore gives Obi/Kwankwaso the advantage in Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta and Edo, with Rivers remaining a major battleground.

If that happens, Atiku's southern vote could decline significantly from 2023.

And that creates a serious problem for his presidential ambitions.

The three candidates now have very different electoral coalitions

Bola Tinubu

Tinubu has the strongest existing political machinery.

His advantages include incumbency, APC's national structure, strong Southwest support and substantial northern organisation.

His biggest vulnerability is that he is the incumbent at a time when economic hardship and insecurity are major concerns for voters.

Atiku Abubakar

Atiku has enormous political experience and a strong northern network.

But his biggest challenge may be that he has lost much of the institutional advantage he enjoyed as the PDP presidential candidate in 2023. And also, zoning arrangement does not favor him at the moment.

He now has to build a national coalition under ADC while competing directly with Obi-Kwankwaso for voters opposed to the APC.

Peter Obi

Obi appears to have the strongest growth trajectory.

He has retained the enthusiasm and loyalty of his core supporters while expanding his political network.

More importantly, he now has Kwankwaso on his ticket, giving him access to a significant northern political constituency that was outside his coalition in 2023.

His major remaining challenge is converting political enthusiasm into a sufficiently strong polling-unit and grassroots organisation across the country.

My current state-by-state assessment

My latest central scenario has Obi/Kwankwaso winning approximately 19 states plus the FCT, Tinubu about 12 states, and Atiku about 6 states.

The states where I currently see Obi/Kwankwaso strongest include:

Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Edo, Benue, Kaduna, Kano, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau, Rivers and Taraba, plus the FCT.

Tinubu remains strongest in much of the Southwest and parts of the North, including Ekiti, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Borno, Jigawa, Katsina and Zamfara.

Atiku's strongest remaining territory is concentrated largely in the North, particularly Adamawa, Bauchi, Gombe, Kebbi, Sokoto and Yobe.

These are projections, not polling results, and several of these states remain highly competitive.

The most important point

Nigeria's presidential election is not won simply by having the largest support in one region.

A candidate must obtain the highest number of votes nationally while also satisfying the constitutional requirement of at least 25 percent of the votes in at least two-thirds of the states and the FCT.

That makes Obi's growing geographical spread extremely important.

If Obi/Kwankwaso can maintain their overwhelming advantage in the Southeast, dominate much of the South-South, win significant parts of the North-Central and Northwest, and cross the 25-percent threshold in enough additional states, they can defeat Tinubu without winning the majority of states.

My current prediction

After considering the changing party structures, the Obi-Kwankwaso ticket, Atiku's movement from PDP to ADC, the APC's northern strength and the changing political landscape in the South, my current assessment is:

Peter Obi/Kwankwaso — 50% chance of winning

Bola Tinubu/Shettima — 36%

Atiku/Amaechi — 14%

These are analytical probabilities, not opinion polls.

My central vote scenario is approximately:

Obi/Kwankwaso: 8.9 million

Tinubu: 8.2 million

Atiku: 6.3 million

The projected margin is therefore relatively narrow.

But the deeper conclusion is more important than the numbers:

Atiku may currently be the candidate least likely to win the presidency, while simultaneously being one of the most important factors determining who does win.

His presence could prevent Tinubu from consolidating the northern vote, while his loss of southern political machinery could prevent him from converting that northern strength into a national victory.

That leaves Peter Obi with a potentially powerful combination:

a loyal southern base + Kwankwaso's northern strength + an expanding national political structure + an anti-incumbency environment.

The big question between now and 2027 is therefore no longer simply whether Peter Obi can repeat his 2023 performance.

It is whether Obi-Kwankwaso can turn the coalition they have assembled into a genuine nationwide electoral machine.

If they can, the 2027 presidential election could be the first Nigerian presidential election in which Peter Obi enters as a genuine national favourite rather than simply a strong third-force candidate.

Chijioke Nwankwo, PhD.
Writing from Enugu.

Validated:
Let the US Show us what Tinubu has been hiding since 1995.

Bigkoko:
Finally Nigerians will get to learn more about the drug dealer in Aso Rock!

The Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar, has called for an immediate investigation into the killing of an Army officer, identified as Col. Abdussalam Ude.

The President-General of the Nigeria Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs also condemned what he described as persistent hate and discrimination against minority Igbo Muslims in the South-East, urging an end to attacks on religious minorities across the country.

His position was contained in a statement issued on Wednesday by Prince Bashir Adefaka on behalf of the Sultan’s Media Team.

The Sultan described the reported hostility towards minority Igbo Muslims in the South-East as a setback to national unity and urged the Federal Government and the Armed Forces to uncover the circumstances surrounding the officer’s death.

According to the statement titled “Sultan of Sokoto calls for immediate launch of investigation on alleged assassination of Igbo Muslim Army officer,” Alhaji Abubakar made the call “while reacting to the recent assassination, allegedly, of Nigeria’s most senior Igbo Muslim Army officer, which occurred at his residence in Abuja, Nigeria’s capital, recently.”

The Sultan said, “The Federal Government and the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria have gotten to put heads together and get to the roots of circumstances that led to the shooting at alleged close range of Army Colonel Abdur-Razaq AbdlKarim Ode, a fine military intelligence officer that both Muslim Ummah and traditional communities in the country, especially the region he hailed from, were proud of.”

He added that failure to investigate the killing of any Nigerian, particularly a serving military officer, would undermine efforts at nation-building.

“To allow the killing of any single Nigerian soul taken out without getting to the root of the cause and bringing the culprits to justice with a view to disallowing a repeat of the same is not a good way to talk about a serious country, much more when the life extrajudicially taken is that of a soldier of the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

“The cause of this killing and attempt on the life of his family must be found out and the government and other appropriate quarters do the needful,” he said.

The Sultan also called for an end to hate speech and attacks against minority religious groups across the country.

“As Muslims, we continue to act by showing love and encouraging peaceful coexistence, tolerance, unity and restraint as enjoined upon us by Islamic rules, regulations and guidance laid down for us in the Glorious Qur’an,” he said.

He prayed for the repose of the deceased officer’s soul, asking Allah to grant him Al-Jannah Firdaus.

Ttalk:
Something is definitely wrong with the so called leaders from the South. Look at how he convinently left Badagry - Sokoto that benefit majorly the North to attack road that would directly impact the economy of the SS particularly where he comes from.

Calabar was once a capital city but how many development you can find in that part of the country? When will Calabar advance in development when the little thing that could enhance such development is being criticized by the leaders of that region?

The sophistication leader from the South attached to politics is so egocentric and regressively appauling.

Where was Donald Duke voice when Buhari and Amaechi were building railway to Maradi in Niger Republic. It is so sad that an average Southern politician will mortgage his region on the alter of politics, that's why many of them will always play second fiddle to the North and their elite

garykoeman:
Den no born dem to criticize northern road construction.

success1smyn:
Those emergency lovers of Nigeria won't see this one to support but only the Agulu fra*u*ster. Can him answer questions like this?

And by the way the we can actually afford the road sir.

fergie001:
Signed:
Phrank Shaibu
Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication to Atiku Abubakar, Vice President of Nigeria 1999-2007 and Presidential Candidate of the African Democratic Congress.
1st August, 2026.


Previous Thread:
Picking Atiku As Vice President Greatest Mistake Of My Life – Obasanjo

Gjrich:
Enugu State Governor, Dr Peter Mbah, has announced his administration’s plans to establish State University of Artificial Intelligence and Technology, State University of Education and Technology, and State University of Agriculture, Agro-Industrialization and Technology to match the Smart Green School initiative.

Mbah disclosed this while delivering the convocation lecture on the topic; “Restoring the Dignity of Man: Enugu’s Quantum Leap in Human Development and Inclusive Prosperity through Experiential Learning” as part of the events marking the 55th convocation ceremony of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, held at the school auditorium.

The Lecturer said the state has accredited new degree programmes in Automation, Artificial Intelligence and Mechatronics in ESUT and IMT, saying his administration was committed to ensuring that every child can access a school that prepares him or her for the future, hence the 268 Smart Green Schools built across the 260 political wards.

Mbah said the Smart Green Schools are equipped with Interactive Smart Boards, 26,000 Desktop Computers, Laboratories, Digital Libraries, Innovation Studios, Clinics, Smart Farms, Water, Teachers accommodation, Solar Energy, and Internet Connectivity, noting that uniforms and learning materials are free of charge.

The governor said the Smart Green School pathway continues through Smart Senior Secondary Schools, Modern Technical and Vocational Education and Training, TVET, Colleges, and transformed tertiary institutions.

He said at the heart of his education transformation is the Center for Experiential Learning and Innovation which is responsible for Integrating Curriculum, Teachers’ Development, Research, Digital Literacy, Skill Intelligence, Industry Partnership, and Evidence.

The governor further said the state is transforming it’s tertiary institutions including the Enugu State University of Science and Technology, State University of Medical and Applied Sciences, Health Colleges, Enugu State Polytechnic Iwollo, and the State College of Education Technical into institutions that connect to research, technology, enterprise, production and public value.

Earlier speaking, the UNN Vice Chancellor, Prof. Simon Ortuanya and the chairman of the occasion, Prof. Chinedu Nebo who commended the governor for the lofty initiative in education, said Experiential Learning is becoming one of the defining imperatives of 21st-century education; hence Nigerian University graduates must be able to create, innovate, solve problems and lead societal transactions.

The Convocation lecture which had notable political office holders as well as the Pro-chancellor of UNN, Pro. Adebayo Adegboyega in attendance, was part of the event marking the 55th convocation ceremony of the University.

Enugu State Governor, Dr Peter Mbah, has announced his administration’s plans to establish State University of Artificial Intelligence and Technology, State University of Education and Technology, and State University of Agriculture, Agro-Industrialization and Technology to match the Smart Green School initiative.

Mbah disclosed this while delivering the convocation lecture on the topic; “Restoring the Dignity of Man: Enugu’s Quantum Leap in Human Development and Inclusive Prosperity through Experiential Learning” as part of the events marking the 55th convocation ceremony of the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, held at the school auditorium.

The Lecturer said the state has accredited new degree programmes in Automation, Artificial Intelligence and Mechatronics in ESUT and IMT, saying his administration was committed to ensuring that every child can access a school that prepares him or her for the future, hence the 268 Smart Green Schools built across the 260 political wards.

Mbah said the Smart Green Schools are equipped with Interactive Smart Boards, 26,000 Desktop Computers, Laboratories, Digital Libraries, Innovation Studios, Clinics, Smart Farms, Water, Teachers accommodation, Solar Energy, and Internet Connectivity, noting that uniforms and learning materials are free of charge.

The governor said the Smart Green School pathway continues through Smart Senior Secondary Schools, Modern Technical and Vocational Education and Training, TVET, Colleges, and transformed tertiary institutions.

He said at the heart of his education transformation is the Center for Experiential Learning and Innovation which is responsible for Integrating Curriculum, Teachers’ Development, Research, Digital Literacy, Skill Intelligence, Industry Partnership, and Evidence.

The governor further said the state is transforming it’s tertiary institutions including the Enugu State University of Science and Technology, State University of Medical and Applied Sciences, Health Colleges, Enugu State Polytechnic Iwollo, and the State College of Education Technical into institutions that connect to research, technology, enterprise, production and public value.

Earlier speaking, the UNN Vice Chancellor, Prof. Simon Ortuanya and the chairman of the occasion, Prof. Chinedu Nebo who commended the governor for the lofty initiative in education, said Experiential Learning is becoming one of the defining imperatives of 21st-century education; hence Nigerian University graduates must be able to create, innovate, solve problems and lead societal transactions.

The Convocation lecture which had notable political office holders as well as the Pro-chancellor of UNN, Pro. Adebayo Adegboyega in attendance, was part of the event marking the 55th convocation ceremony of the University.

yinkus6750:
Division 1 is too big . The Northern divisionsneed to be restructured so as to make them stronger to come with the level of insurgency arising from that axis.