₦airaland Forum

Thank God the whole Oando daily discuss has ended.. But this place is now boring without the fights. Current SP don humble everyone.

Sup with Lafarge?

Ades1:
It is currently trading Below ₦500, remember that the purpose of buying companies like Aradel is mostly because you expect them to make a lot more profits in the future than they make today. Today the profit is around 50 bucks, in the future it could grow to 100 or 200, now imagine investing 500 today and in the future(5-10 years from now), that investment is returning 200 every year.

Must of the financials states strong buy. Don’t know why the stock price is stangnant for now

RodgersAkpafu:
Sometimes the best thing to do is to lag your investment in aradel

Essentially buying up small small every week
while still waiting for your target price (if it actually materialises ) essentially hedging your risk.

If you keep waiting and aradel inches upwards
That will be a lost opportunity

Thanks a lot .. Appreciate just bidded 480.. It might not fill up tho. Keeping the fingers crossed

Guyz, I have some stake in ARADEL. But been waiting for it to drop below 500 to get more..

Do you think it’s okay going a lot on current price?

yMcy56:
Meanwhile,
OANDO seems to be finding support @48.....
Will it hold?
We wait and see

SEPLAT: Except MM makes the move, I don't think an individual investor can take the risk of falling it with above half a billion, N513M on 100k bulk......
Those trying to exit should better go and siddon dey collect their quarterly dividends jejely. 😊

Why don’t they wanna do a stock split so people think it’s cheaper and improve liquidity

bastardson:
Please after selling a stock on Morgan Captain, how do I move the money to available balance. I wanna buy a different stock

Anyone please. The money is showing on Net but not available balance

Please after selling a stock on Morgan Captain, how do I move the money to available balance. I wanna buy a different stock

Who cares?

Locotrader:
As it stands now,talking about chams will make me to loose my respect as certain elements here hijacked this chams especially now the seller is rubbishing the stock price anyhow.

What I know is I have bought value and ICT ,breweries and pharmaceutical sectors remain grossly undervalued.Insurance and banks have done 50-80% of what they have for the market but ICT ,brew, pharmaceutical has not done 10%.Just watch those sectors and make your money any time from now in 2025.

I will never say any word here again until results begins to come in and until chams Q4 2024 result surfaces.

Currentprice only appear once in a while to highlight on his pointed stocks.Even though his stocks takes time to mature.There are many stocks to make money before his stocks gets ripe for rally.

Loco stock is a N15 naira stock in 2025.You can criticize but you can't deny my value.

Don't worry about me because I am going on guest mode for now.I am very much okay.

I hand over to my critics.Take control.

Naaaah I like u though. Everything I am buying right now is long term.

I don’t even need immediate gains.

I believe u die. I budgeted 5m when I became active here in August last year. 500k units of CHAMS, 1M unit of Ellah Lakes. I have Afolabi of ARADEL, thinking of switching my stake in Access to International Breweries.

Learn NB can do 100% but IB can do 300%

E be like sey Loco don sell em CHAMS. This is not looking normal

emmaodet:
.....Continued .....
What is the chances of a bear base or bull occurring?
From my observation, i will give a bear case 55%, base 45% and bull 5%
a) Bear condition = $0.05b x 0.5% = $0.0275b
b) Base condition = $0.75b x 0.45% = $0.3375b
c) Bull condition = $3.8b x 0.05% = #0.19b
Weighted avg. condition Future Market Cap = a + b + c = $0.52b x #1,600/$1 = #830b future market cap.
Can Ellah Lake really make this? and what year?
Current Ellah Lakes Market Cap is #8.4 b so from calculation above, this is roughly %5000 upside, meaning a #1m invested in Ellah lakes now, if it meets our target will give us #50m excluding dividends and bonuses.
The next question is, how many years will it take ellah lakes to achieve this target?
I will give a ellah lakes a 10 year period, that is 2035 with a moratorium of 3 years which means they won't generate revenue or profit from now till 2027 ending allowing their crops to mature and ready for harvesting and generating income.
Then from 2028 till 2035, ellah lakes must generate revenue and profit and grow their market cap on yearly basis by atleast 64% till 2035 from 2028 - can the management make this? is it achievable?
Let's do the survival Analysis of Ellah Lakes -

Their negative FCF from 2024 - 2021 = 498m - 508m - none - 3380m. This is what they have been burning into investment on yearly basis
Cash and cash equivalent from 2024 to 2021 = 230m - 916m - 237m - 323m. So they only have 6 months cash left to survive 2024, in other wodrs they need to raise loan or dilute more shares to raise capital to keep surviving.
Digging deeper, i noticed they did RI in 2024 and also did a private placement to raise more cash. Probably will be a convertible loan to equity in future.
Since we expect ellah lakes to not generate anything meaningful until 2028 and burning an average of 500m per year, we expect her to raise capital mostly through stock issuance that will last her for atleast 3 years = #1.5b worth of stocks
At #3/share of ellah lakes, an extra 750m shares would be issued to the OS of 2.75b = 3.5b by 2028
Debt raised from 2024 to 2021 = none -38m - 29m -940m
Issuance of stocks from 2024 - 2021 = 2186m - 1187m - 100m - 2200m
From our above calculation, Future Market cap by 2035 = 830b
OS by 2028 - 2035 = 3.5b
Implied price by 2035 when a venture capitalist wants to sell his shares and pull out = #237 / shares.
Can they really make it?
A #1m invested now in ellah lakes to worth 237m by 2035? 10 years from now
a 100k invested now to get 24m in 2035, is it possible?

Crazy breakdown. Nice one, but the ability to wait that long. So no prospect for profit in the next 3 yrs.

I am actually fine with that. Biggest issue is my trust in the current management, expansion as the palm oil aspect is the goldmine but they have just 2,500 Hectares of land in Edo for that.

If they acquire more land, it means they would need to wait for more years again.

I am not as grounded with figure though

ojeysky:
it's a matter of time as they say

It’s looking like a 3yrs or more wait though.

I am yet to buy in, but i intend getting quite a number

No one is saying anything about Ellah Lakes.. All so quiet about it.

designking:
Aradel might likely hit ₦300...

Naaaaah it finally had a baseline.

Wouldn’t drop beyond where it’s at presently.

Sunrisepebble:
If you are buying now you are likely going to be someone’s exit liquidity considering that the smart and wealthy investors are buying on the LSE presently and then coming to sell on NGX where it’s more expensive

How can you buy on LSE and Sell on NGX.

I can see it in my T212 account to buy.

Omooloriredade:
It depends on your investment goal. What kind of stock market player are you?

In my opinion, Seplat (the company) is one of the best managed companies on the NGX. They seem to have a culture of corporate excellence.

Sound management - Yes
Consistent positive financial performance - Yes
Consistent dividend income - Yes
Growth - Yes

What then is my answer to your question, YES if you are an INVESTOR with a bias for dividend income and gradual growth.

NO, if you are like me who is only after capital growth on the NGX in the short term.

Why? In my opinion, Seplat (the stock) is not favoured by the NGX Price movement framework. A minimum of 100,000 units in a single trade is required to move the price. 100,000 x N5,000 = N500,000,000. How many times do we see this kind of trade? I am more likely to multibag on other stocks than in Seplat (recall my investor profile?)

Seplat no vex. My loyalty is to my portfolio.

Disclaimer - All in my opinion.

#Edited

I still don’t know why they have refused to split the stock though.

Omooloriredade:
Different companies.

Seplat just acquired the upstream business (of Exxon Mobil). You are referring to former Mobil Plc (downstream aka petrol stations) now known as 11 Plc.

Does it make sense investing in SEPLAT presently?

The stock price feels super high already.

megawealth01:
Team ACCESS any day. We are planning on buying bank of America?

I wonder when shareholders would start enjoying the benefits of the purchases round the world though. Cuz it’s insane

Mpeace:
Every stock will move at its time. The problem is that nobody knows the time.
Someone here talked about selling his access for GTCO. But access done move since then.
Just put ur money where you fancy the most. Or you share the money between them.

Na me ohh, Access started moving right after the post.

This place is quiet today.. Seens Oando is the reason people talk

Sunrisepebble:
I don’t think I’d ever advise dumping one bank stock for another
Personally, today I loaded more Zenith. I’ve factored in the dilution and with the 2025 forecast the EPS still looks strong.
I’ll look to add more GTCO and UBA tomorrow also in anticipation of FY 24 results and dividend. Expecting good things from both

You didn’t mention Access . 😀.

Youngzedd:
Stay one place.

Maintain your steez.

looool not easy seeing so many stocks moving. Access stays stagnant. GTCO was on 50.56 when i bought Access. GTCO is now between 56 and 58. My ARADEL is on 24% but i got just 1,900 units.

Sunrisepebble:
Banks annualized EPS (without dilution) based on Q3 results
Zenith 35 EPS, PE1.32
UBA 19EPS, PE1.77
GTCO 52 EPS, PE1.1
Access 16.5 EPS, PE1.4

Should I still keep my Access or sell and move to GTCO or ARADEL?

mikeapollo:
This is tricky; but let me try:
The quantum of capital and how long you are patient and able to wait could be key factors to consider:

These are my take:
a. International Breweries would be for longer term recovery and higher profit margin/returns in the long term. That stocks can easily clock N30-N40 in the long term after the recovery/turnaround and that would be huge gain considering the current price

b. Nigerian Breweries would be for middle term growth and moderate profit margin/returns in the middle term. I think it can clock N50-N70 or thereabout in the middle/long term.

IB is great if I can wait 1yr + ?

Which would you invest in?

International Breweries or NB?

People taking profit on ARADEL. I am long term, so I ain’t bothered

Streetinvestor2:
Abeg anyone with information on wapco agm.
People with yeye multiple handles will just occupy pages of this thread with only oando matter. Abeg nobi only oando dey nse.

I don tire Walahi

The name is ARADEL!!!

yMcy56:
* Nothing like share dilution.
* No new shares created.
* Bonus is still from existing Outstanding Shares
It's more like a trade by barter......."You owe me money, you don't have means of paying, then opted to pay me with what you have (Shares), I agreed to collect and let the matter slide; then I decided to distribute the shares to my loyalists" 😊

That's my understanding of it.

I think investors should start treating OANDO like an investment henceforth, just like Street said.
It's a new dawn for OANDO!
Buy and keep for better price appreciation (or possible future dividends) in near/future terms.
Ire o. 😊

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/42714_OANDO_PLC-OANDO_PLC__CORPORATE_ACTIONS_DECEMBER_2024.pdf

So it’s not too late to enter the party?

Y’all bought below 30.. I would be buying at 70.

Abeg Biko, is it still wise to invest in Oando at this time? Thinking of picking some today?

Or I am late to the party?

The banking shares I bought is yet to move an inch. I regretted buying them, though leaving it.

My Aradel is the only thing giving me joy, bought just little though.

Where’s the man that asked us to buy CHAMS.

I really don’t want Aradel to move yet. I need to stake more

ARADEL is vexing this morning.

Damnnn