₦airaland Forum

TINUBU AND THE FALSE NORTHERN DISCONTENT NARRATIVE

THE POLITICAL AUTOPSY: Kaduna, Kwankwaso and the Poverty Statistics That Predate Tinubu.

On October 24, 2026, President Tinubu launched his re-election campaign in Kaduna. For months, one narrative has dominated:

THE NORTH IS ANGRY. THE NORTH HAS BEEN ABANDONED. THE NORTH WILL REJECT TINUBU. Really?

Which North? The ordinary citizens or the political godfathers who suddenly discovered poverty after decades in power? BEFORE DISCUSSING NORTHERN DISCONTENT, LET US DISCUSS NORTHERN HISTORY.

In March 2022, the World Bank reported that approximately four in ten Nigerians lived below the national poverty line. An October 2025 World Bank brief placed northern extreme poverty at 57.4% in 2022/23, compared with 21.2% in the South.

WHO WAS PRESIDENT WHEN THESE CONDITIONS ALREADY EXISTED? Certainly not Tinubu!

YOU CANNOT ERASE DECADES OF FAILURE AND PRESENT THE ENTIRE INVOICE TO A PRESIDENT WHO ARRIVED IN 2023. Even Rabiu Kwankwaso has acknowledged how mismanagement and inadequate resources contributed to northern deprivation.

How many governors governed while schools deteriorated, insecurity spread and poverty deepened?

NOW CONSIDER TINUBU'S RECORD. In Kaduna, he inaugurated 81 kilometres of the Abuja–Kaduna highway. Governor Uba Sani cited funding for the 123-kilometre Kaduna–Birnin Gwari road, alongside other northern infrastructure projects.

Sani also reported the reopening of 300-plus schools and 150 healthcare centres, and approximately ₦84 billion in student loans benefiting 414,000 North-West students.

These are measurable and verifiable achievements —not mere slogans.

And political hostility towards the North? Tinubu supported Atiku in 2007, Ribadu in 2011 and Buhari in 2015 and 2019. DOES THAT SOUND LIKE A HISTORY OF ANTI-NORTHERN POLITICS?

Northern hardship is real. Tinubu's policies have also imposed costs. But inherited poverty cannot honestly be presented as his invention.

The North is not one politician, one party or one grievance. Tinubu must answer for his record. His predecessors and northern governors must answer for theirs.

THE NORTH DESERVES AN HONEST ACCOUNTING, NOT SELECTIVE OUTRAGE.

THE QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER NORTHERNERS ARE ANGRY, BUT WHETHER POLITICAL ACTORS ARE TELLING THEM THE WHOLE STORY.

IS NNPC THE GOAT GUARDING NIGERIA'S CNG YAM FARM?

AKK PIPELINE: FOUR YEARS OF PROMISES, FOUR YEARS OF POSTPONEMENTS. IS THERE A CONFLICT OF INTEREST NOBODY WANTS TO DISCUSS?

The Yoruba have a wonderfully instructive saying: “A KÌ Í FI EWÚRẸ́ ṢỌ́ ỌGBÀ IṢU.” You do not appoint a goat to guard a yam farm.
Not necessarily because the goat is wicked. But because the arrangement creates an obvious conflict between responsibility and appetite.

Now consider Nigeria's compressed natural gas revolution. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu wants Nigerians to move from expensive petrol to cheaper natural gas.

But one of the institutions expected to deliver the infrastructure for that transition is NNPC Limited, a company deeply embedded in Nigeria's petroleum business.

IS NNPC BEING ASKED TO GUARD A TRANSITION THAT COULD DISRUPT SOME OF ITS EXISTING COMMERCIAL INTERESTS?
I am asking whether Nigeria has sufficiently examined the incentives of the institution entrusted with delivering its gas future.

And the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano pipeline provides an uncomfortable case study.

THE PROMISES THAT REFUSE TO BECOME GAS

Consider the chronology. APRIL 2023: NNPC announced that AKK was approximately 70% complete.NOVEMBER 2023: An NNPC executive reportedly projected commissioning readiness by December. December came. The gas did not.

2024: The completion target moved to December 2024. Another December. Another disappointment. LATE 2024: The projected commissioning date shifted to the first quarter of 2025.

2025: NNPC reported 72% completion in the first quarter. By July, it was targeting completion in the fourth quarter. That deadline also passed. APRIL 2026: Nigerians were told to expect gas delivery to Abuja by July.

AUGUST 2026: NNPC announced that the pipeline had reached Abuja, with phased commissioning expected later in the year.

OCTOBER 2026: NNPC chief Bayo Ojulari explained that equipment-supply disruptions associated with the Middle East conflict had caused further delays. Critical equipment was now expected in November.

And Abuja was again promised gas before year-end. HOW MANY DEADLINES MUST A PIPELINE MISS BEFORE THE DEADLINES THEMSELVES REQUIRE AN INVESTIGATION?

Certainly, pipelines are complex engineering projects.

The River Niger crossing presented genuine technical challenges. International equipment disruptions are plausible. Funding and procurement difficulties can affect construction schedules. But explanations for individual delays do not automatically explain the entire history of missed targets.

THE QUESTION NNPC MUST ANSWER

NNPC sells petroleum products. It also invests in natural gas. A successful CNG transition could reduce demand for petrol among converted vehicles, while creating new gas revenues for NNPC.

The net commercial effect is therefore not obvious. Indeed, NNPC has commissioned CNG stations, announced further investments and publicly supported the transition.

Those facts deserve recognition. BUT THEY DO NOT CANCEL THE NEED TO EXAMINE INSTITUTIONAL INCENTIVES. When an organisation operates in both the established fuel economy and the emerging alternative, how are its investment priorities determined?

Who measures the opportunity cost of delayed gas infrastructure? Who independently verifies whether AKK is progressing as efficiently as reasonably possible? And who bears responsibility when projected commissioning dates repeatedly collapse?

For the Private Sector Alliance for Accelerated CNG Growth (PRACNG), the answer must be transparency. Publish the outstanding AKK works. Identify the equipment awaiting delivery. Release the revised commissioning milestones.

Explain when Abuja, Kaduna and Kano can expect sustained commercial gas supply. And subject progress reports to independent technical verification.

Because a pipeline that is 95% complete but cannot deliver commercial gas remains an unfinished economic promise. President Tinubu's CNG vision cannot run indefinitely on press releases. NIGERIA NEEDS GAS IN ITS PIPELINES, NOT EXCUSES IN ITS HEADLINES.

The Yoruba warned us about the goat and the yam farm. Perhaps NNPC is genuinely doing everything possible. Then let the evidence establish that.

BUT WHEN THE GOAT KEEPS REPORTING THAT THE YAMS ARE ALMOST READY, THE FARMER HAS EVERY RIGHT TO INSPECT THE FARM.

COMMISSION IT. PRESSURISE IT. LET THE AKK GAS FLOW.

Charles Yakub
Convener, Private Sector Alliance for Accelerated CNG Growth (PRACNG)

#LetTheAKKGasFlow | #CharlesCNG

CNG QUEUES TO DISAPPEAR BY DECEMBER? SHOW US THE STATION DELIVERY SCHEDULE!
THE PROMISE KEEPERS, THE PROMISE BREAKERS AND THE MOTORISTS STILL WAITING FOR GAS.

There was a popular song many Nigerians grew up singing: “Wherever you go, wherever you be…”

Its message was simple: Let your yes be yes. And your no be no. If you do not know, say you do not know. If you cannot deliver, do not announce a deadline.

And if you make a promise, please keep it. In Christian worship, we celebrate Jesus as the Promise Keeper. But in Nigeria's CNG industry, motorists are increasingly encountering something rather different. THE PROMISE BREAKERS.

On October 21, The PUNCH reported that Pi-CNG expects refuelling queues to reduce significantly before December ends. Its spokesperson, Onyekachi Eke, acknowledged the queues and expressed optimism that additional stations would provide relief.

Chief Operating Officer Tosin Coker said the first batch of additional infrastructure assets should begin arriving the following week.

Wonderful! But haven't Nigerians heard this beautiful music before?

In September, we heard about equipment for 500 CNG stations expected in October.

Before that came announcements of investments, partnerships, memoranda of understanding, station-development targets and ambitious commissioning schedules.

Some projects have genuinely progressed. Others remain announcements whose delivery status is difficult for the public to establish.

AND NOW WE HAVE ANOTHER DECEMBER PROMISE. Nobody should mistake this criticism for opposition to President Tinubu's CNG revolution. Quite the contrary.

Those of us investing our money in this industry desperately need the programme to succeed. But success cannot be measured by the frequency of announcements.

WHERE IS THE STATION-BY-STATION DELIVERY SCHEDULE? Which stations will open before December 31? Where are they located?

Who owns them? Have their compressors arrived? Are construction and licensing complete? What is their daily dispensing capacity?

And most importantly, WHERE WILL THE GAS COME FROM? A station without dependable gas is a beautifully decorated promise.

A compressor without adequate supply is an expensive monument. And a converted vehicle spending hours in a queue is hardly evidence of a completed transport revolution.

Today's October 26 PUNCH investigation makes the problem even harder to dismiss. Its reporter documented motorists waiting overnight at Ibafo, with queues extending towards the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway. I wish they come and see the stanking mess in Abuja CNG stations!

Commercial drivers described lost working hours. Passengers described frustrating delays. THE MOTORISTS ARE NOT QUEUING FOR GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCEMENTS. THEY ARE QUEUING FOR GAS.

There is another troubling pattern. We repeatedly hear announcements of billions in proposed private investments. But how many have reached financial close? How many have entered construction? How many have been commissioned?

And how many are actually dispensing gas today?

An investment announcement is not an investment delivered. A memorandum of understanding is not a completed station. And a commissioning ceremony is not proof of sustained gas supply.

As Convener of PRACNG, I propose a publicly accessible CNG Station Delivery and Reliability Dashboard, showing each facility's commissioning status, operational capacity and verified gas availability. I am ready to build and finance it with my money if need be.

Let Nigerians monitor progress instead of waiting for the next reassuring interview. Pi-CNG's optimism may be sincere. December may indeed bring improvements.

But HOPE IS NOT A DELIVERY SCHEDULE.

The song taught us to let our yes mean yes. So, to everyone announcing another CNG deadline:

IF YOU KNOW, SHOW US THE PLAN. IF YOU ARE NOT SURE, SAY SO. AND IF YOU PROMISE DECEMBER, PLEASE DELIVER IN DECEMBER.

Because Nigeria's CNG revolution does not need another chorus of promise makers. IT NEEDS PROMISE KEEPERS.

Charles Goriola Yakub
Convener, Private Sector Alliance for Accelerated CNG Growth (PRACNG)

#CharlesCNG #LetTheAKKGasFlow #CNG360

HAKEEM BABA-AHMED AND HIS G100 GOOSE CHASERS: WHO IS REALLY SETTING THE TRAP FOR WHOM?

THE POLITICAL AUTOPSY: The Consensus Hunters Keep Meeting. The Presidential Candidates Keep Their Tickets. By CharlesCNG

There is something wonderfully Nigerian about G100. The politicians want to become president. G100 wants them to become one candidate. And the committee wants another committee to explain how this miracle might happen.

WELCOME TO THE GREAT G100 WILD GOOSE CHASE!

Dr Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, PRP national chairman, is among its prominent advocates. Alongside him is Salihu Mohammed Lukman, G100 convener and ADC chieftain. Then Professor Sadiq Umar Abubakar Gombe, SDP chairman, who chaired its latest press engagement.

Other identified personalities include ADC spokesperson Bolaji Abdullahi, alongside Akilu Indabawa, Ladan Salihu and Salihu Tanko Yakasai. An interesting concentration of northern political figures, with visible ADC involvement.

BUT ARE THESE CONSENSUS HUNTERS TRULY NEUTRAL REFEREES?

“IS G100 REALLY A NEUTRAL TABLE FOR OPPOSITION UNITY, OR IS IT A TABLE WHOSE MOST VOCAL ORGANISERS ALREADY HAVE THEIR OWN POLITICAL PREFERENCES?” who is fooling who ? Whose inteligence do these people think they are insulting?

“JUST HOW GULLIBLE DO THESE PEOPLE THINK NIGERIANS ARE?” “DO THEY TAKE NIGERIANS FOR FOOLS, OR HAVE THEY SIMPLY RUN OUT OF PEOPLE WILLING TO BELIEVE THIS FARCE?”

ADC has Atiku Abubakar as its presidential candidate. Peter Obi pursues his ambition through the NDC. Other aspirants have their own political arrangements. WHO EXACTLY IS SUPPOSED TO SURRENDER HIS AMBITION?

At G100's August 31 summit, Atiku, Obi and Seyi Makinde were absent. But the committees were present! Working groups emerged. Consultations multiplied. Communiqués flourished.

THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES WERE MISSING, BUT THE COMMITTEES WERE PRESENT AND CORRECT!

Then came ADC's extraordinary clarification. Bolaji Abdullahi explained that ADC's participation did not depend on producing one presidential candidate. G100 WANTS ONE CANDIDATE. ADC SAYS ONE CANDIDATE IS NOT A CONDITION!

Wonderful! Meanwhile, Lukman suggested consensus could emerge mere days before the election. IS THIS A PRESIDENTIAL COALITION OR A LAST-MINUTE WEDDING ARRANGEMENT?

Who withdraws? Who becomes running mate? Who transfers supporters and campaign structures? And considering the involvement of ADC personalities, Nigerians deserve to know whether this is genuinely open mediation or a process potentially favouring an existing presidential project.

Political affiliations deserve scrutiny, although northern identity alone proves no allegiance to Atiku. A REFEREE CANNOT DECLARE HIMSELF IMPARTIAL. HIS CONDUCT MUST DEMONSTRATE IT.

On October 21, G100 inaugurated more committees and announced progress. Excellent!

BUT WHERE IS THE CONSENSUS? Which candidate has withdrawn? Which agreement has been signed? Meetings are not mergers. Communiqués are not commitments. Committees cannot manufacture political surrender.

EVERYBODY WANTS SOMEBODY TO STEP ASIDE. NOBODY HAS VOLUNTEERED TO BE THAT SOMEBODY!

Dr Baba-Ahmed, answer one question: ARE YOU SEARCHING FOR A CANDIDATE EVERYBODY CAN ACCEPT, OR A WAY TO MAKE EVERYBODY ACCEPT A CANDIDATE?

The goose is running. The hunters are meeting. The candidates are clutching their tickets.

“WHO EXACTLY DO HAKEEM BABA-AHMED AND HIS G100 COLLEAGUES THINK THEY ARE FOOLING? OR DO THEY IMAGINE THAT NIGERIANS CANNOT DISTINGUISH A GENUINE POLITICAL COALITION FROM AN ENDLESS PROCESSION OF COMMITTEES, COMMUNIQUÉS AND CONTRADICTIONS?”

IT IS EASY TO UNITE POLITICIANS AGAINST ONE PRESIDENT. MUCH HARDER TO UNITE THEM BEHIND ONE CANDIDATE.

PAT UTOMI'S CIVIL-WAR WARNING: PROFESSOR, WHICH WAR ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?

When Electoral Anxiety Meets Nigeria's Most Dangerous Historical Memory

Professor Pat Utomi attended a gathering in Manchester where Peter Obi was also invited. He returned with an extraordinary warning: attempts to manipulate the 2027 presidential election could provoke civil war.

CIVIL WAR, PROFESSOR? Not electoral petitions? Not independent result verification? Not peaceful protests? Civil war?

Nigeria has experienced that catastrophe before. The 1967–1970 conflict was inseparable from ethnicity, regional grievances and secession.

SO, PROFESSOR, WHICH WAR ARE YOU ENVISAGING?

An ethnic confrontation? Another secessionist crisis? An organised nationwide rebellion? Or was this simply political hyperbole?

Utomi did not explicitly threaten violence. His warning was conditional. But invoking civil war demands evidence and clarification.

WHO EXACTLY WOULD BE FIGHTING WHOM? AND ON WHAT BASIS? Peter Obi's support extends beyond the South-East. He won Lagos, Plateau, Nasarawa and the FCT in 2023.

Nevertheless, Obi received 6.1 million votes against Tinubu's 8.79 million—a deficit of approximately 2.69 million.

WHAT HAS CHANGED IN THE ELECTORAL ARITHMETIC? New alliances? Broader geographical support? Higher turnout? A measurable shift in voter preferences?

Nobody can proclaim ownership of the people's will before Nigerians vote. But here comes the fascinating contradiction.

UTOMI HIMSELF HAS ADVOCATED TECHNOLOGY TO PROTECT ELECTION RESULTS!

His Big Tent Coalition unveiled Obidient Connect, proposing independent polling-unit reporting and a central results dashboard.

Excellent! But Professor, Nigerian technology developers are already putting similar ideas into practice.

ENTER SOFTSMART'S SMARTELECTIONGUARD PRO.

In November 2025, the News Agency of Nigeria reported SoftSmart's development of an AI-powered election-monitoring platform using advanced Optical Character Recognition technology to extract, process and analyse INEC Form EC8A polling-unit results.

The concept is VISIBLE COLLATION. The technology was announced ahead of the Anambra governorship election.

In June 2026, a published account documented its use during the Ekiti election, including the disclosure of 62 polling-unit results still unavailable on INEC's IReV portal.

During the August 2026 Osun election, SmartElectionGuard Pro maintained a public dashboard displaying candidate totals, reporting progress and verification statistics. One recorded snapshot showed 2,435 of 3,763 polling units reported.

These were independent monitoring figures, not official INEC declarations.

The principle is straightforward: COLLECT THE RESULT SHEETS. EXTRACT THE FIGURES. RECONSTRUCT THE TOTALS. IDENTIFY DISCREPANCIES. PRESERVE THE EVIDENCE.

Technology cannot eliminate every form of manipulation. OCR can make mistakes, and discrepancies require investigation. But it offers something considerably more useful than speculation: VERIFIABLE ELECTORAL EVIDENCE.

So why should our national conversation move from examining ballots to imagining battlefields?

Professor Utomi, if you possess credible evidence of impending organised violence, present it. If your concern is electoral manipulation, identify the vulnerabilities and strengthen the systems that expose them.

And if you are invoking Nigeria's traumatic ethnic and regional history, explain precisely what you mean.

A DISPUTED ELECTION IS NOT AUTOMATICALLY A CIVIL WAR. An allegation is not proof. Political conviction is not an election result.

PROFESSOR, GIVE US THE EVIDENCE OF THE BALLOT—NOT THE SPECTRE OF THE BATTLEFIELD!

LET THE RESULT SHEETS SPEAK. LET THE NUMBERS BE VERIFIED. LET THE LAW DECIDE.

AKK PIPELINE: WHO SHOULD NIGERIANS BELIEVE — NNPC, THE GAS MINISTER OR THE REGULATOR?

WHO IS DECEIVING NIGERIANS — NNPC OR THE MINISTER OF GAS?

Mainline Complete, 95% or 88%? Why Can't Nigeria Get One Verifiable AKK Delivery Timetable?

On September 29, 2026, NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer Bashir Bayo Ojulari announced that the AKK Pipeline's 623-kilometre mainline and River Niger crossing had been completed. Days later, Gas Minister Ekperikpe Ekpo reported that the overall project was approximately 95% complete, with completion expected in 2027.

But another figure complicates the story. On September 24, Nigerian NewsDirect reported that the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), in its August 2026 assessment, placed AKK completion at 88%, including the main pipeline backbone and ancillary facilities.

Other reporting of the regulator's August figures cited 80%.

ONE PIPELINE. DIFFERENT COMPLETION FIGURES. WHERE IS THE AUTHORITATIVE, RECONCILED PROJECT STATUS?

Are these officials describing different project milestones, or has another delivery commitment quietly slipped?

If the mainline is complete, what exactly remains unfinished? What constitutes the outstanding 5%? Is gas coming to Abuja in 2026 or are Nigerians now waiting until 2027?

AND IF 2027 IS THE NEW DEADLINE, WHO GUARANTEES IT WILL NOT BECOME 2028?

The AKK Pipeline was inaugurated in June 2020 with an initial completion expectation of 2022. Since then, successive deadlines and revised assurances have stretched across 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

HOW MANY MORE DEADLINES MUST COLLAPSE BEFORE SOMEBODY IS HELD ACCOUNTABLE?

These percentages may measure different scopes of work. But why have the responsible institutions not published a common breakdown that Nigerians can understand?

What exactly has been completed? Which stations, connections and commissioning activities remain unfinished? Is early gas still coming to Abuja in 2026? What precisely will be delivered in 2027?

AND WHO WILL PUBLISH THE SINGLE, AUDITABLE ACCOUNT OF WHAT IS ACTUALLY READY TO DELIVER GAS?

The AKK Pipeline was inaugurated in June 2020 with an initial completion expectation of 2022. Subsequent targets have stretched through 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026.

HOW MANY MORE REVISED DEADLINES MUST NIGERIANS ACCEPT WITHOUT A DOCUMENTED EXPLANATION?

The demand is not another percentage. It is independently verified commissioning, published delivery dates and measurable commercial gas flow.

“IF NNPC SAYS THE MAINLINE IS COMPLETE, THE MINISTER SAYS 95%, AND THE REGULATOR'S BROADER ASSESSMENT SAYS 88%, WHO WILL PUBLISH THE SINGLE, AUDITABLE ACCOUNT OF WHAT IS ACTUALLY READY TO DELIVER GAS?”

DELE MOMODU BETS HIS LIFE ON OBI HUMILIATING SOLUDO. BUT THE BALLOT BOX HAS ALREADY TOLD A DIFFERENT STORY!

THE POLITICAL AUTOPSY: When Prophecy Meets Electoral Arithmetic

Dele Momodu has made another spectacular political prediction.

On ARISE News, October 14, 2026, the Ovation publisher declared that he could bet his life Peter Obi would humiliate and disgrace Governor Charles Soludo in Anambra during the 2027 presidential election.

What extraordinary confidence! But before anybody stakes his life on an election, perhaps he should first consult the results of the previous ones.

BECAUSE THE LAST TIME OBI AND SOLUDO'S POLITICAL MACHINERIES WERE TESTED, THE BALLOT BOX DELIVERED A RATHER INTERESTING VERDICT.

On November 8, 2025, Peter Obi publicly supported and campaigned for George Moghalu, the Labour Party governorship candidate.

Obi participated in the campaign launch. The Obidient Movement endorsed Moghalu. The former presidential candidate even joined the campaign on the streets.

Then Anambra voted. SOLUDO'S APGA: 422,664 VOTES. OBI-BACKED LABOUR PARTY: 10,576 VOTES. Soludo won all 21 local government areas.

In Obi's own Anaocha Local Government Area, APGA secured 20,118 votes against Labour's 483. And at Obi's personal polling unit?

Labour Party scored 57 votes. APC scored 73. APGA scored 38.

So, to be precise, Soludo did not win Obi's polling unit. But Obi's own party lost there, while Soludo overwhelmingly defeated its candidate statewide.

WHERE, THEN, WAS THE ELECTORAL INVINCIBILITY?

Now travel backwards to 2023. Peter Obi won an extraordinary 584,621 presidential votes in Anambra — 95.24% of valid votes.

An astonishing demonstration of personal presidential popularity. Yet barely three weeks later, on March 18, Anambra elected its State House of Assembly.

APGA won 17 of the 30 seats. Labour Party won eight. YPP secured three. PDP took two. Soludo's party retained its legislative majority.

OBI WON THE PRESIDENTIAL VOTE. SOLUDO'S PARTY WON THE ASSEMBLY MAJORITY.

Two elections. Two different political contests. Two different expressions of voter preference.

That is the historical complication missing from Momodu's prophecy. And this is not his first encounter with electoral arithmetic.

In January 2023, Momodu published a confident forecast explaining how Atiku Abubakar would become president.

He argued that Atiku would automatically secure 25% in all 19 northern states, dominate the North and South-South, and ultimately win the national popular vote.

The actual result? Tinubu: 8,794,726 votes. Atiku: 6,984,520 votes. Momodu's confident electoral forecast did not materialise.

Which raises a perfectly legitimate question: WHY DOES A MAN WHO SO CONFIDENTLY MISREAD 2023 NOW SPEAK WITH SUCH ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY ABOUT 2027?

But there is an even more fundamental problem. PETER OBI IS NOT CONTESTING THE 2027 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION AGAINST CHARLES SOLUDO. Soludo is not seeking the presidency.

The relevant presidential contest will involve Tinubu, Obi and other candidates on the ballot. Soludo's role, as a governor who has declared support for Tinubu, belongs to the political organisation of that contest.

Consider the arithmetic. In 2023, Tinubu received only 5,111 votes — 0.83% — in Anambra.

If Tinubu were to secure 25% there in 2027, that would represent an enormous increase in his vote share, although it would not by itself establish victory in Anambra or nationally.

It would also be a major departure from the presidential voting pattern Momodu appears to regard as unshakeable. And that is the distinction.

A GOVERNOR DOES NOT HAVE TO DEFEAT A PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE PERSONALLY TO DEMONSTRATE POLITICAL INFLUENCE IN HIS STATE.

Nor does a presidential candidate's overwhelming popularity automatically transfer to every governorship or legislative contest. Anambra's voters have already demonstrated that they can support Peter Obi for president and APGA for state government.

Momodu is entitled to make another prediction. But predictions are not results. Popularity is not transferable by proclamation. And political certainty is no substitute for electoral evidence.

BEFORE BETTING YOUR LIFE ON TOMORROW'S BALLOT, DELE MOMODU, PERHAPS CONSULT YESTERDAY'S RESULTS.

WHEN YORUBA AND IGBO VOTERS DISAGREE: IS THAT BIGOTRY OR DEMOCRACY?

There is a noisy quarrel raging across Nigerian social media. On one side, combative voices identifying with Peter Obi's Obidient movement. many of them Igbos On the other, equally combative supporters of President Bola Tinubu, many of them Yoruba.

And somehow, this increasingly gets packaged as: IGBO VERSUS YORUBA. What magnificent political mischief!

Because this is primarily a confrontation between COMPETING POLITICAL LOYALTIES, frequently dressed in ethnic clothing.

And the distinction matters. Today, three South-East governors belong to the APC. Anambra's Chukwuma Soludo has endorsed Tinubu, while Abia's Alex Otti has distinguished cooperation with the President from outright opposition.

Political figures including David Umahi, Anyim Pius Anyim, Orji Uzor Kalu and Benjamin Kalu are associated with the APC establishment.

The Ndigbo for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu 2027 Forum is also organising regional mobilisation. SO WHICH IGBO PEOPLE ARE SUPPOSEDLY FIGHTING WHICH YORUBA PEOPLE?

The political map is no longer that simple. Recall 2023.

Obi's supporters generated extraordinary online excitement. But the digital battlefield has evolved. Pro-Tinubu mobilisation is increasingly organised and more and more pronounced in the social media and out of it , including within the South-East.

Whether that amounts to a measurable reversal in online popularity remains unproven. SOCIAL-MEDIA NOISE IS NOT AN ELECTORAL CENSUS.

Now comes Segun Showunmi's intervention. He argues that political hostility associated with some Obidients could undermine the alliances necessary for an Igbo presidency. There is a serious democratic question buried inside that warning.

WHEN DOES POLITICAL DISAGREEMENT BECOME ETHNIC BIGOTRY? Simple. When criticism of Peter Obi becomes hostility toward Igbo people. When opposition to Tinubu becomes contempt for Yoruba people.

When electoral rivalry becomes threats, exclusion or intimidation. Equally, ethnic insults directed at Yoruba citizens by anyone claiming to support Obi cannot be excused as political enthusiasm.

But there is another distinction. VOTING OVERWHELMINGLY FOR OBI IS NOT BIGOTRY. VOTING OVERWHELMINGLY FOR TINUBU IS NOT BIGOTRY.

A citizen owes no ethnic group an electoral apology. Indeed, the real danger is allowing partisan activists to manufacture permanent ethnic enemies out of temporary political opponents.

Yoruba citizens supported Obi in 2023. More and more Igbo citizens support Tinubu today. i know because internal scientific polling conducted by smartelectionguardpro reveals it.

These inconvenient facts should embarrass those who insist that every political disagreement must become an ethnic war. Nigeria's democracy must accommodate fierce political competition without collective ethnic blame.

CRITICISE THE CANDIDATE. CHALLENGE THE POLICY. CONFRONT THE ARGUMENT. But leave an entire ethnic nationality out of your quarrel.

Let me use myself, CharlesCNG, as an example. I DISLIKE PETER OBI'S POLITICS BUT ADMIRE DAVE UMAHI. Both are Igbo. I support Tinubu, but certainly not every Yoruba politician. So where is the ethnic hatred?

BIGOTRY IS MISTAKING MY OPPOSITION TO OBI FOR HATRED OF IGBO, CRITICISM OF TINUBU FOR HATRED OF YORUBA, OR MY SUPPORT FOR TINUBU FOR HOSTILITY TOWARD IGBO. What spectacular intellectual dishonesty!

OBI IS NOT THE IGBO RACE. TINUBU IS NOT THE YORUBA RACE. They are politicians, not tribal deities. I need no ethnic clearance certificate to support or reject either.

Ironically, these politicians negotiate across ethnic boundaries while their supporters manufacture tribal wars. MY BALLOT IS A POLITICAL CHOICE, NOT AN ETHNIC OATH OF ALLEGIANCE.

DISAGREE WITH MY POLITICS. BUT DON'T INSULT MY INTELLIGENCE BY ASSIGNING AN ETHNICITY TO MY CONSCIENCE.
BECAUSE POLITICAL DISAGREEMENT IS DEMOCRACY. ETHNIC INTIMIDATION IS ITS BETRAYAL.

IGBO PRESIDENCY: A RIGHT TO BE NEGOTIATED, A TURN TO BE ALLOCATED, OR AN ELECTION TO BE WON?

Otunba Segun Showunmi went into his Selah Meditate Podcast interview ostensibly discussing Nigeria's political future. Then the conversation took a revealing turn.The interviewer wanted to know whether the South-East could produce Nigeria's president.

Nigeria's South-East presents a fascinating political paradox ahead of 2027.

THE POLITICAL ELITE IS MOVING TOWARD TINUBU. BUT WILL THE ELECTORATE FOLLOW?

In 2023, Peter Obi swept all five South-East states, securing approximately 1.96 million votes—nearly 90% of the region's valid votes.

The South-East, historically a PDP stronghold, overwhelmingly rejected both PDP and APC presidential candidates. Now the political landscape has changed dramatically.

THREE OF THE FIVE SOUTH-EAST GOVERNORS ARE APC MEMBERS: Hope Uzodimma of Imo, Francis Nwifuru of Ebonyi and Peter Mbah of Enugu. But the political realignment extends beyond formal party membership.

ANAMBRA GOVERNOR CHUKWUMA SOLUDO, although remaining in APGA, has openly endorsed Tinubu's 2027 re-election bid. Then comes the intriguing case of ABIA GOVERNOR ALEX OTTI.
Although still in the Labour Party, Otti has declared that he is “not in a position to oppose” Tinubu's candidacy. However, he has stopped short of endorsing his re-election.

Meanwhile, political heavyweights including David Umahi, Anyim Pius Anyim, Ken Nnamani, Benjamin Kalu, Orji Uzor Kalu and Sullivan Chime are aligned with the ruling party.

Former governors Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, Okezie Ikpeazu and Martin Elechi have also been associated with endorsements of Tinubu.

THREE APC GOVERNORS. ONE APGA GOVERNOR BACKING TINUBU. ONE LABOUR PARTY GOVERNOR NOT DECLARING OPPOSITION.

Enter Segun Showunmi. In his recent interview, he identified Peter Obi and his Obidients as obstacles to an Igbo presidency.

His central proposition? “POWER MUST BE NEGOTIATED.” And herein lies the significance of 2027.

The South-East political establishment is increasingly pursuing influence within the ruling party, while Obi represents an alternative route through opposition politics.

THE ELECTION WILL TEST BOTH STRATEGIES.

If APC substantially increases its South-East votes, its regional leaders could enter post-2027 negotiations with something more valuable than political appointments. DEMONSTRABLE ELECTORAL STRENGTH.

That could strengthen their bargaining position when APC next considers zoning its presidential ticket southward.

Conversely, if Obi again overwhelmingly dominates the South-East despite this collection of political heavyweights, an uncomfortable question emerges: WHAT EXACTLY ARE THESE LEADERS BRINGING TO THE NEGOTIATING TABLE?

Titles? Endorsements? Presidential access? Or actual electoral influence?

Such an outcome would expose the limitations of elite realignment without grassroots support. Yet Obi's regional dominance would not automatically produce a national presidential victory either. THE SOUTH-EAST CANNOT ELECT A NIGERIAN PRESIDENT ALONE.

That requires alliances across the North, South-West, South-South and Middle Belt.

And this returns us to Showunmi's proposition. Political negotiations become stronger when backed by electoral influence. But neither elite endorsement nor regional popularity guarantees presidential power.

Ultimately, three principles must remain distinct: FAIRNESS CAN BE NEGOTIATED. PARTY TICKETS CAN BE ALLOCATED. BUT THE PRESIDENCY MUST BE WON.

Because securing a party's presidential ticket is one contest. Winning the Nigerian electorate is another.

IN 2027, THE SOUTH-EAST WILL NOT MERELY BE CASTING VOTES. ITS ELECTORAL RESULTS COULD HELP DETERMINE THE STRENGTH OF ITS VOICE WHEN THE NEXT NEGOTIATION FOR PRESIDENTIAL POWER BEGINS.

“IT’S NOT A TINUBU PROBLEM”: KWANKWASO’S IMPORTANT ADMISSION ON NORTHERN INSECURITY

Something unusual happened during Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso’s interview on Channels Television’s Politics Today.

Presenter Jeffrey Uzoma refused to allow the discussion about poverty and insecurity in Northern Nigeria to become another convenient presidential blame game.

He turned the mirror northwards.

The North has produced presidents, governors, ministers, senators and some of Nigeria’s longest-serving political heavyweights. Yet poverty and insecurity remain particularly severe across parts of the North-East and North-West.

So Jeffrey effectively asked: WHAT HAVE NORTHERN LEADERS THEMSELVES DONE WITH ALL THAT POWER?

Kwankwaso’s response contained a sentence worth preserving: “IT’S NOT A TINUBU’S PROBLEM… HE INHERITED THAT PROBLEM.”

That matters.Because it complicates the easy campaign line that Nigeria’s northern insecurity suddenly arrived with Bola Tinubu.

It did not.

Boko Haram predates Tinubu by more than a decade. Banditry, kidnapping, rural displacement and chronic poverty were already major national emergencies under previous administrations. The World Bank has long identified poverty as heavily concentrated in the North-West and North-East, with insecurity, weak public services and remoteness among the drivers.

Kwankwaso himself acknowledged that insecurity was severe even under President Muhammadu Buhari.

But Jeffrey went further.He pointed out that northern governors also meet, control budgets and command significant political influence. Why, then, does the region repeatedly appear at the wrong end of Nigeria’s statistics?

That is a more serious question than shouting:

“TINUBU HAS FAILED THE NORTH.” It asks: WHO HAS BEEN GOVERNING THE NORTH FOR THE LAST 25 YEARS?

This does not absolve Tinubu. But Kwankwaso’s admission destroys one lazy simplification: THE PROBLEM DID NOT BEGIN ON MAY 29, 2023.

Perhaps the more uncomfortable national conversation is that Nigeria sometimes treats structural failure as if it belongs exclusively to whoever currently occupies Aso Rock.

Jeffrey Uzoma’s question demanded something more difficult: ACCOUNTABILITY UP AND DOWN THE FEDERATION.

President. Governor.Local government chairman. And, especially in the North, the political establishment that has exercised enormous power for decades.

That was one of the interview’s most useful moments.

JEFFREY UZONU VS RABIU KWANKWASO — THE NIGHT NDC FINALLY SAID THE QUIET PART OUT LOUD: SUBSIDY MAY RETURN

For several weeks, Nigeria had been playing a strange political game with Peter Obi’s petrol-subsidy position.

Remove subsidy. Remove corruption from subsidy. Restore subsidy. Transparent subsidy. Modified subsidy. Different subsidy.

Then Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, NDC vice-presidential candidate, walked into Channels Television’s Politics Today—and presenter Jeffrey Uzonu decided that enough English had been spoken.

His question was brutally simple: ARE YOU RESTORING SUBSIDY OR NOT?

That may have been the most important moment of the interview.

Kwankwaso first explained that the major candidates in 2023 had different positions. He reminded viewers that his own camp then opposed immediate removal and preferred tackling corruption and fraudulent claims within the system. He then described the economic shock following Tinubu’s May 29, 2023 removal.

Then came a remarkable phrase.

The NDC ticket, Kwankwaso said, could become: “THE MOTHER OF ALL SUBSIDIES.”

Jeffrey did not let that float away. He effectively told him: subsidy is subsidy. Production or consumption, modified or renamed—are you keeping it or removing it?

Kwankwaso finally answered: “Our collective position now is that the price of energy in this country is too high… we are going to do whatever is necessary… including the subsidy.”

There. NDC MAY RESTORE PETROL SUBSIDY. And according to Kwankwaso, Peter Obi is now on the same page.

That is politically significant because only on August 24, Obi said subsidy still needed to be removed and argued that mismanagement of the savings was no justification for restoring it. Weeks later, he shifted to restoring subsidy after eliminating corruption.

So Jeffrey’s missing follow-up—which should now become the national question—is: WHAT CHANGED IN THE ECONOMICS?

Because “we will remove corruption” is not yet a subsidy policy.The old subsidy was not problematic only because people stole.

The World Bank calculated that in 2022 petrol subsidy consumed about 2.2% of GDP and 32.4% of Federation revenues, costing more than federal spending on health, education and social protection combined. Cheap Nigerian petrol also created powerful incentives for cross-border smuggling.

And today there is another inconvenient number.

Between 2023 and 2025, the World Bank says gross Federation revenues rose 69% in real terms, while aggregate state revenues rose about 93%—partly reflecting subsidy removal, exchange-rate reform and stronger revenue mobilisation.

So before NDC promises the “mother of all subsidies,” somebody must ask: HOW MUCH? FOR WHOM? FOR HOW LONG?

AT WHAT PUMP PRICE? WHO PAYS THE DIFFERENCE? WHAT PREVENTS SMUGGLING? WHAT IS THE EXIT RULE?

Without those answers, “remove corruption” is an aspiration—not an economic model. And this is where Jeffrey Uzonu’s interviewing was particularly useful.

Earlier, when Kwankwaso alleged that APC politicians were preparing to write election results, Jeffrey immediately asked:

“YOU HAVE EVIDENCE TO THAT EFFECT?” Kwankwaso answered principally that he had heard it from people around them.

Later Jeffrey turned the North’s insecurity crisis back on the political class itself:

Northern leaders—including Kwankwaso—have had access to power for decades. Why, then, do poverty and insecurity remain disproportionately severe there?

Kwankwaso made an important concession: “IT’S NOT A TINUBU PROBLEM… HE INHERITED THAT PROBLEM.” That sentence deserves its own headline.

Then came perhaps the most personally uncomfortable question. Kwankwaso built the political movement that brought Abba Kabir Yusuf to power in Kano. Yusuf subsequently moved politically toward Tinubu.

Jeffrey asked: WHY COULDN’T YOU KEEP THE MAN YOU BROUGHT INTO POWER?

Kwankwaso tried broadening the answer to governors everywhere. Jeffrey dragged him straight back: “YOU’RE THE ONE SITTING HERE. I’M ASKING YOU.”

Then the dagger: “ARE YOU ACCEPTING THAT PRESIDENT TINUBU IS A BETTER POLITICIAN WHEN IT COMES TO THESE THINGS THAN YOU?”

That is interview discipline.

But the biggest story remains subsidy. Tinubu’s government is presently defending a different model during the current oil-price shock: a temporary 30-day NNPC retail-margin sacrifice and price-smoothing measures while explicitly rejecting restoration of a blanket subsidy.

NDC now appears prepared to reopen the bigger door. That is legitimate policy territory.

Governments can subsidise things. But there is one rule economics stubbornly refuses to repeal:

EVERY SUBSIDY HAS A BILL. So the next time Obi or Kwankwaso says: “WE WILL BRING BACK SUBSIDY WITHOUT THE CORRUPTION,”

the interviewer should ask one question before allowing another sentence: SHOW US THE INVOICE.

Interview Autopsy CharlesCNG

DELE MOMODU BROUGHT ATIKU’S 2027 PROPHECY — CHARLES ANIAGOLU KEPT ASKING FOR THE RECEIPTS

Dele Momodu walked into the ARISE NEWS Prime Time studio with an old calculator. Not literally.

But before the interview was over, he had punched into it almost the same electoral formula he confidently sold Nigerians before the 2023 presidential election.

Across the table sat anchor Charles Aniagolu, repeatedly doing what good journalism should do when campaign prophecy enters the studio: ASK FOR THE RECEIPTS.

Momodu came wearing two hats: VETERAN JOURNALIST. And DEPUTY DIRECTOR-GENERAL, MEDIA AND COMMUNICATIONS, ATIKU ABUBAKAR PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN.

That second hat mattered.

He opened with dynamite: Tinubu, he said, is “far worse” than Abacha and has virtually captured the executive, legislature and judiciary.

Aniagolu immediately asked: “IS THAT A FAIR ASSESSMENT?”

Excellent question. Abacha dissolved elected legislatures, banned political parties, dismantled civilian governments and ruled by military decree. So “worse than Abacha” requires more than theatrical comparison. Absolute nonsense talk.

Then Momodu reached for the calculator. Atiku, he declared, will “definitely” obtain 25% across the 19 northern states, needing only six or seven more states.

Now rewind to January 23, 2023. Momodu wrote that Atiku would “get 25 percent automatically in the 19 states of Northern Regions.”

He predicted Atiku would dominate the North, secure enough southern spread and become Nigeria’s next president. Then Nigerians voted.

INEC’s final numbers: TINUBU — 8,794,726. ATIKU — 6,984,520. Tinubu won. Atiku finished second.

So this is not merely another projection. It is practically THE RETURN OF THE 19-STATE FORMULA.

Same analyst. Same candidate.Same northern arithmetic. Four years later, the calculator is back.

Aniagolu then asked whether Momodu was speaking as a journalist or Atiku campaign official. Momodu replied: “It’s the way God has configured it.”

Aniagolu fired back: “SO GOD IS IN HEAVEN PLAYING CHESS?” At that point, arithmetic had entered theology.

Then came INEC. Momodu alleged ethnic capture and claimed “90%” of Nigerians would distrust Tinubu to conduct a free election.

Which poll? What sample? What field dates? What methodology? None was supplied.

Aniagolu also asked the question Momodu kept trying to answer with Tinubu: WHAT IS ADC BRINGING?

And when Momodu finally sold Atiku as the candidate of “true democracy,” Aniagolu produced the awkward exhibit: PDP ZONING.

If Atiku represents internal democracy, how seriously did he take his own party’s rotation principle? Momodu replied that Nigeria’s Constitution outranks PDP’s constitution.

True. But nobody said otherwise. The question remained: IF YOU PREACH INTERNAL DEMOCRACY, HOW SERIOUSLY DO YOU TAKE YOUR OWN PARTY’S RULES?

Aniagolu tested the Abacha analogy, interrogated the arithmetic, separated journalist from campaign spokesman, demanded evidence on INEC and challenged Atiku’s democratic credentials.

There is a bigger problem with Dele Momodu recycling his 2023 electoral arithmetic: Atiku entered that election with machinery he simply does not have today.

He had the PDP’s nationwide structure, built over decades, plus the backing of eight sitting governors—Udom Emmanuel, Ifeanyi Okowa, Godwin Obaseki, Douye Diri, Ahmadu Fintiri, Bala Mohammed, Aminu Tambuwal and Darius Ishaku. He also had support from Buhari's northern kitchen cabinet.

Today, Atiku is running on the ADC platform, with no serving governor, including none from his home state, Adamawa.

So the question is brutal: IF MOMODU’S “19 NORTHERN STATES” FORMULA FAILED WITH MORE STRUCTURE IN 2023, WHY SHOULD IT WORK WITH LESS IN 2027?

WIKE'S MEDIA BIAS CHALLENGE: NEWS CENTRAL DECLARES ITSELF UNBIASED. WHO ISSUED THE CERTIFICATE?

INTERVIEW AUTOPSY: The Day Nigeria's Watchdogs Were Asked to Examine Their Own Teeth

There is a peculiar privilege enjoyed by some Nigerian journalists. They can interrogate politicians, question judges and demand presidential accountability.Excellent!

But accuse a journalist of bias, and suddenly the interrogator becomes the offended! At Nyesom Wike's October 13 media parley, four journalists arrived to question a minister.

THE MINISTER DECIDED TO QUESTION THE QUESTIONERS! Present were Sumner Shagari Sambo (ARISE News), Felicity Ezewuike (News Central), Ayodele Ozugbakun (TVC News) and Leo Sobechi (The Guardian).

Then Wike introduced an uncomfortable subject: MEDIA BIAS!

EXHIBIT ONE: NEWS CENTRAL'S CERTIFICATE OF INNOCENCE

At approximately 41 minutes, Felicity Ezewuike declared: “For the record, honorable minister, New Central is an unbiased platform.”

Wonderful!

Imagine a politician declaring himself incorruptible. Would journalists abandon their investigations? Imagine a judge certifying his own impartiality. Would that settle every complaint?

SINCE WHEN DID IMPARTIALITY BECOME A CERTIFICATE AN INSTITUTION COULD ISSUE TO ITSELF?

EXHIBIT TWO: THE AMAECHI QUESTIONS

Wike accused the media of applying unequal standards. He raised allegations concerning Amaechi's administration: malaria-control expenditure, a proposed hospital, a monorail and power assets.

These remain allegations requiring verification. The journalists rightly questioned Wike about their timing, abandoned projects and his own responsibilities.

But Wike raised an equally legitimate question: Would comparable allegations against him or Tinubu attract harsher headlines and more relentless interrogation?

THAT REQUIRES EDITORIAL EVIDENCE, NOT PROFESSIONAL INDIGNATION!

EXHIBIT THREE: YOU ARE NOT A JOURNALIST!

When Wike questioned editorial priorities, a journalist reminded him that he was neither a trained journalist nor an editor.Ah!

Must a passenger become an aeronautical engineer before complaining about a dangerous flight?

Wike cannot dictate newsroom decisions. BUT JOURNALISTIC TRAINING DOES NOT CONFER IMMUNITY FROM PUBLIC SCRUTINY!

EXHIBIT FOUR: WHEN INTERRUPTION BECOMES BIAS

Wike interpreted an interruption as bias. The journalist called it clarification.

Here, Wike also needed correction. Challenging questions and necessary interruptions are legitimate journalism.

A POLITICIAN'S IRRITATION DOES NOT PROVE BIAS. A JOURNALIST'S PROFESSIONAL STATUS DOES NOT DISPROVE IT.

EXHIBIT FIVE: THE JUDICIARY TEST

Wike questioned the Nigerian Bar Association's treatment of Amaechi, citing allegations concerning Rivers State courts. Would reactions differ if Tinubu faced comparable accusations?

The allegations require verification, but the consistency question extends beyond journalism.

WHO SCRUTINISES THE INSTITUTIONS THAT SCRUTINISE EVERYBODY ELSE?

THE AUTOPSY VERDICT

Did Wike prove media bias? No. Did the journalists prove impartiality by denying it? Certainly not!

BIAS IS NOT PROVED BY ACCUSATION. IMPARTIALITY IS NOT PROVED BY DENIAL.

The test is EDITORIAL EQUIVALENCE, not guest counts.

Which stories receive prominence? Which allegations attract follow-ups? Which politicians escape sustained interrogation?

CharlesCNG is undertaking an independent, evidence-based audit of ARISE News, News Central, TVC News, Channels Television, Trust TV and other broadcasters.

We will examine headlines, interviews, editorial framing and comparable political controversies. Not to defend Tinubu, prosecute Atiku or Obi, or vindicate Wike.

BUT TO DETERMINE WHETHER THOSE DEMANDING ACCOUNTABILITY PRACTISE IT THEMSELVES.

Findings will be published with identifiable broadcasts and verifiable evidence.

THE JOURNALIST HAS EVERY RIGHT TO INTERROGATE THE POLITICIAN. BUT WHO SAID THE INTERROGATION MUST END WHEN THE MICROPHONE IS TURNED AROUND?

CharlesCNG

Who Is Watching the Watchdog? | Interview Autopsy

I AM POLITICALLY COMMITTED, NOT FACTUALLY CAPTIVE.

WHAT EXACTLY IS THE OPPOSITION BRINGING TO THE TABLE? SEGUN SHOWUNMI’S BRUTAL QUESTION FOR 2027


Segun Showunmi’s strongest criticism of Nigeria’s opposition was not that its leaders lack popularity.
It was worse.
He questioned whether they have built enough POLITICAL MACHINERY AROUND THEIR POPULARITY.

He used Peter Obi as his exhibit.
Showunmi said Obi could have been a serious alternative.
“Maybe Peter. We could support Peter. Why not?” Then came the knife: “Peter should have made up his mind what the party will be, maybe like 2024 max.”

Why? Because presidential politics is not a motivational seminar. It requires structure. Candidates. Ward organisations. State leadership. Polling agents. Senatorial candidates. House candidates. A recognisable symbol. Time.

Showunmi’s metaphor was excellent: A POLITICAL PARTY IS A TRAIN.

The states and local structures are the coaches. But: “If you don’t pack the head train very powerfully, it cannot pull us.”

That is his central warning to the anti-Tinubu coalition.
You cannot build everything around one presidential candidate and assume the machinery will magically assemble underneath him.
And Showunmi was speaking from experience.

On presidential election day, Senate and House contests are moving simultaneously. Weeks later come governorship contests.
If the presidential “engine” collapses, he argues, politicians immediately begin renegotiating loyalties.

His wonderfully Nigerian formulation: “I’M AN EXPERIENCED DOG IN THIS GAME.”
This criticism became more interesting when you consider that Peter Obi eventually moved into the NDC, while Atiku Abubakar emerged as ADC presidential candidate with Rotimi Amaechi as running mate.

Yet opposition-unity discussions have continued even after the parties selected competing presidential arrangements. That is almost exactly the structural problem Showunmi was describing.

And then there is policy. His challenge to opposition politicians was essentially:

Before asking Nigerians to replace something, SHOW THEM THE SOMETHING YOU ARE REPLACING IT WITH.

On subsidy? What exactly is the fiscal model? On foreign exchange?
What replaces the market-reflective regime? On infrastructure? Which projects continue, which stop and what replaces them?
On policing? Federal-only or state police? On federalism? Do states receive more responsibility or less?

Nigeria does not merely need: ANTI-TINUBU.
It needs an answer to the question that eventually destroys every opposition built principally around anger: AFTER “TINUBU MUST GO” — THEN WHAT?

A coalition can unite against a man. A government has to unite around a programme.
CharlesCNG

SEGUN SHOWUNMI’S TINUBU FILE: FIVE POLICIES THAT TURNED A CRITIC INTO “SAUL BECAME PAUL”

In a remarkably candid interview on Nigeria Unfiltered, opposition politician and longtime PDP chieftain Segun Showunmi sat across from presenter Olabode Roland and did something increasingly rare in Nigerian politics:

he explained, policy by policy, why a man who had fiercely criticised President Bola Tinubu in 2023 had gradually reassessed the administration.

Roland- the erudite host of Nigeria Unfiltered repeatedly pushed Showunmi to explain the contradiction of remaining an opposition politician while openly supporting Tinubu’s continuation in office—and Showunmi’s answer was essentially: LOOK AT THE POLICIES.

His words were extraordinary: “If what is on the table today is anything to measure by, miles, Bola Tinubu is better than them. Look at the policies. Let’s break it down.”

And break them down he did. First: PETROL SUBSIDY.

“Do I really think that this country… can do with paying petrol subsidy when we don’t have money?” His answer: “NO.”

That does not mean subsidy removal was painless. It plainly was not. But the fiscal problem Showunmi identifies was real: international institutions had repeatedly warned that the old regime consumed enormous public resources and distorted government finances.

Second: FOREIGN EXCHANGE ARBITRAGE.

Showunmi rejected a regime where government effectively borrowed or rationed cheap dollars that privileged beneficiaries could arbitrage for enormous gains.

Third: GIVE STATES MORE RESPONSIBILITY — AND MORE MONEY.

He asked whether more resources should reach states and LGAs so they can pursue their own development. His answer: “YES. YES.”

The World Bank now reports that between 2023 and 2025 real federation revenues increased 69%, while aggregate state revenues increased approximately 93% in real terms.

Fourth: INFRASTRUCTURE.

Showunmi pointed repeatedly to Abuja and federal road construction.

“Anybody who knows Abuja… may not know Abuja now,” he said, before arguing that major road projects are being pursued across the federation.

More than 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads are currently under construction, reconstruction or rehabilitation and the named projects—from Lagos-Calabar to Sokoto-Badagry, Abuja-Kaduna-Kano and East-West Road—are observable construction programmes.

Then came number five: STATE POLICE.

This appeared to clinch something for him. Showunmi argued that Nigeria cannot keep confronting twenty-first-century insurgency with a policing structure inherited from a far smaller country.

Then came the line: “This guy now is doing that and I’m supposed to realistically tell you that that’s a bad policy when I know that is the right policy?”

The constitutional framework is now under active consideration. None of these points requires believing that every Tinubu policy has succeeded. Showunmi does not make that argument.

His more interesting argument is about HOW TO JUDGE GOVERNMENT.

He says he began as a fierce critic. Then he deliberately “lowered the gaze,” removed partisan anger and asked: “WHAT IS THE PRESIDENT EVEN ATTEMPTING TO DO?”

His description of the transformation: “I WAS SAUL. NOW I’M PAUL.” That may be political heresy. But at least it comes with a policy list.

CharlesCNG

WHO THE HELL IS THIS CHARLESCNG?

The Curious Story of a Software Man Who Retired Into Political Trouble

The question has probably crossed a few minds, sometimes with curiosity, occasionally with irritation, and perhaps with the suspicion that somebody ought to investigate this fellow. Who the hell is CharlesCNG?

A journalist? A politician? A Tinubu propagandist? A CNG evangelist? Or simply another Nigerian with too much data, too much time and an incurable appetite for argument? Fair questions.

But first, a confession. I WAS SUPPOSED TO BE RETIRING.

After decades as an IT consultant, enterprise applications developer and technology entrepreneur, I had begun withdrawing from the daily operational demands of SoftSmart Enterprise, the software business through which I developed solutions for hospitality, healthcare, finance, education, human resources and business management.

Our work eventually extended into artificial intelligence and election technology, including Smart ElectionGuard Pro, designed to promote transparency in election-result reporting.

I thought retirement would mean fewer deadlines and quieter mornings. Unfortunately, Nigerian politics had other plans.

In software engineering, when a system produces nonsense, we examine its inputs, interrogate its logic and debug the errors.

In Nigerian politics, somebody produces nonsense, organises a press conference and accuses anyone demanding evidence of being sponsored! Wonderful! So I began writing.

Political commentary. Economic analysis. Infrastructure monitoring. Energy-policy advocacy. And increasingly, media criticism.

CHARLESCNG WAS BORN.

My political convictions are no secret. I am an unapologetic supporter of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his reform agenda. But supporting a President does not require surrendering one's calculator. I AM POLITICALLY COMMITTED, NOT FACTUALLY CAPTIVE.

Through my growing[i] INTERVIEW AUTOPSY[/i] series, part of Who Is Watching the Watchdog?, I examine what journalists ask, what politicians answer, what they evade and what the evidence actually establishes.

I believe an interview should not end when the television cameras go off.

My CNG advocacy follows the same philosophy: policies must produce measurable benefits, not merely impressive announcements.

As Convener of the Private Sector Alliance for Accelerated CNG Growth (PRACNG), I campaign for practical delivery of affordable transport energy, including #LetTheAKKGasFlow.

I am neither a neutral political referee nor a professional journalist pretending to have no opinions. I am a technology entrepreneur turned political and economic commentator, bringing decades of problem-solving experience into public debate.

My approach is simple: ASK THE QUESTION. EXAMINE THE EVIDENCE. EXPOSE THE CONTRADICTION. DEMAND THE RESULT.

And if a little satire helps Nigerians understand the argument, so much the better.

Because after years of debugging software, I have discovered a rather more ambitious retirement project. DEBUGGING PUBLIC ARGUMENTS.

And judging by the state of Nigerian political discourse, I may never retire again.

CharlesCNG
Political & Economic Commentator | Technology Entrepreneur | CNG Policy Advocate | Media Critic
Creator, Interview Autopsy | Convener, PRACNG

SEUN ASKED. OYEDELE EXPLAINED. THEN A NAIRALAND ECONOMIST CONJURED ₦11 TRILLION!

Somewhere in Nigeria, a man sat behind his keyboard, read an argument about petrol discounts and announced that NNPC would soon account for ₦11 trillion in suspiciously discounted petrol. Eleven trillion naira!

No invoice. No sales volume. No discount calculation.

Just a keyboard, an internet connection and the magnificent confidence of a man who apparently believes arithmetic is an optional branch of economics.

Welcome to Episode Two.

My recent CharlesCNG article, “SEUN OKINBALOYE VS TAIWO OYEDELE: THE NIGHT ‘SUBSIDY BY ANOTHER NAME’ RAN INTO ACCOUNTING 101,” examined the Finance Minister's explanation of Tinubu's temporary petrol intervention on Channels Television's Politics Today.

Seun interrogated. Oyedele explained. CharlesCNG examined the accounting. Then came some Nairaland reactions!

As happens with political commentary circulating through Nairaland, Facebook and X, publication sometimes marks the beginning of the argument, not its conclusion. And this particular comment section supplied enough material for a sequel.

EXHIBIT ONE: “SUBSIDY IS SUBSIDY!”

One commentator thundered: “Subsidy is subsidy. No long story about it.” Wonderful!

By that logic, every supermarket discount becomes indistinguishable from a Treasury-funded petrol subsidy. A discount benefits consumers. A government-owned company sacrificing profit may reduce potential public revenue.

But foregoing profit does not automatically mean selling below cost or receiving Treasury reimbursement. Economics requires distinctions. Political slogans apparently consider them optional.

EXHIBIT TWO: “HOW WILL NNPC PAY SALARIES?”

Another commentator demanded to know how NNPC would pay salaries, maintain assets and meet obligations without profit. Fair question. Wrong accounting assumption. Salaries, maintenance and distribution are operating costs. Profit remains after relevant expenses.

However, if NNPC's claimed selling-at-cost price excludes legitimate operating expenses, Nigerians deserve an explanation. BRING THE FULL COST CALCULATION!

EXHIBIT THREE: THE ₦11 TRILLION MAGICIAN!

Then came our keyboard economist's extraordinary prediction. NNPC would supposedly underreport profits and claim ₦11 trillion in petrol discounts next quarter.

At a hypothetical ₦100 discount per litre, that would require 110 BILLION LITRES! Where are the volumes? Where is the discount calculation? Where is the evidence? Nowhere in the allegation.

You cannot manufacture an accounting scandal with a keyboard and call it forensic auditing! But then wetin peson no go see for nairaland comment section !

EXHIBIT FOUR: “BUT NNPC BELONGS TO GOVERNMENT!”

Correct! NNPC's surrendered profit may reduce earnings and potential government dividends. The intervention is therefore not economically costless.

But it is not automatically identical to the previous arrangement for financing petrol-price shortfalls. The Presidency says NNPC Retail is temporarily sacrificing its margin. That assertion deserves independent verification.

And if refiners absorb price differences today and recover them tomorrow, WHO EVENTUALLY PAYS?

That is why Seun's interrogation remains important.

THE FINAL VERDICT: THE LEDGER HAS THE LAST WORD!

The original CharlesCNG article examined Seun's questions to Minister of Finance, Oyedele. The reactions have now given us the opportunity to examine the public's interpretation.

Some objections were legitimate. Others confused economic definitions. One produced ₦11 trillion without supporting arithmetic.

Let NNPC publish its acquisition costs, sales volumes, operating expenses, surrendered margins and financial implications.

Let independent auditors examine them.

SEUN ASKED. OYEDELE EXPLAINED. NAIRALAND CHALLENGED. Excellent! Because public debate should not be a competition between government assurances and opposition suspicions.

It should be a contest of verifiable facts.

And to our ₦11 trillion economist, one final observation: IN NIGERIAN POLITICS, YOU MAY CONJURE A TRILLION NAIRA WITH YOUR MOUTH. BUT IN ACCOUNTING, EVEN A KOBO MUST HAVE A RECEIPT!

Kukutente23:
Shall we now ask our in-house expert on subsidy nairalanda1 if asking a business to forgo its profit to serve the populace is not a subsidy

How does the business pay salaries, maintain its assets, offset other obligations if it is not allowed to sell at a profit

And this is more so since NNPC is a govt owned business which basically means its profit is expected to be retired into the government’s federation account by law

You are confusing foregone profit with an actual financial loss, and then confusing both with a Treasury-funded subsidy.

NNPC foregoing part of its retail margin for 30 days does not automatically mean it is selling below acquisition and distribution costs. Salaries, maintenance and operating expenses are costs accounted for before determining net profit.

Yes, NNPC is government-owned, and reduced profits could mean reduced dividends to government. That is an opportunity cost, not automatically a budgetary subsidy. The distinction is elementary.

And no, NNPC's entire profit is not automatically remitted to the Federation Account. Corporate taxes, royalties, dividends and retained earnings are different accounting and legal categories.

The legitimate question is whether NNPC is genuinely sacrificing only its margin or secretly selling below full economic cost. That requires audited figures.

You cannot establish a subsidy merely by pointing to a discount. Show us the cost, the selling price and who funds any shortfall.

That is accounting. The rest is political arithmetic.

SEUN OKINBALOYE VS TAIWO OYEDELE: THE NIGHT “SUBSIDY BY ANOTHER NAME” RAN INTO ACCOUNTING 101

Seun Okinbaloye came to Politics Today carrying the questions everybody had been throwing at Tinubu’s new petrol intervention:

Is this subsidy through the back door? Did government shamelessly copy Atiku? If Nigerian crude is under Nigerian soil, why not simply give it cheaply to Nigerian refiners? And what happens when the 30-day sugar rush ends? Good questions.

Taiwo Oyedele’s answer, stripped of government grammar, was basically:

PLEASE, LET US SEPARATE THREE DIFFERENT THINGS BEFORE WE CONFUSE OURSELVES.

First, the 30-day NNPC discount. The previous night, Adewole Adebayo mocked it as “petrol-station-attendant economics.” Festus Osifo called it subsidy in another form.

But Oyedele finally supplied the missing accounting.

NNPC buys the product at market-reflective cost, adds distribution costs and its retail margin, then sells. For 30 days, it is foregoing its own profit margin, particularly for commercial transporters—not receiving money from the Treasury to sell below acquisition cost.

The Presidency has since confirmed that structure. That matters. EVERY DISCOUNT IS NOT A SUBSIDY.

When Shoprite gives 10% off its margin, the Finance Ministry does not open a subsidy account.

Adebayo’s “fuel attendant” joke was funny. The accounting was less cooperative. The Joke is actually on him and this is why CharlesCNG refers jokingly to him as Prince 200 per Liter

Then Seun moved to the opposition’s favourite miracle:

NIGERIAN CRUDE IS OUR CRUDE. JUST GIVE IT TO OUR REFINERIES CHEAPLY.

Oyedele’s response was the most important part of the interview.

Nigeria producing about 1.7–1.8 million barrels daily does not mean government has 1.8 million free barrels sitting behind Aso Rock.

There are production costs, joint-venture and production-sharing obligations, royalties and contractor entitlements before the Federation reaches its own share. Official production data itself shows combined crude and condensate output around that range—not some bottomless national fuel tank.

And if government gives its remaining crude to refiners below market value? THE COST DOES NOT DISAPPEAR. THE TREASURY LOSES THE DIFFERENCE.

That is the hole inside much of the ₦200, ₦400 and ₦500 petrol political arithmetic.

Seun kept pressing. “But the crude is under our feet.” True. So is gold. That does not make extraction free.

Then came the most politically dangerous question: What happens after 30 days?

Oyedele’s answer was smarter than the slogan.

The margin discount expires or is reviewed. The broader proposal is monthly price modulation—trying to smooth violent short-term swings rather than permanently fixing petrol below economic cost.

That principle is defensible.

But here Seun was right to keep his eyebrow raised.

If refiners absorb a shortfall today and recover it later, Nigerians deserve to know exactly how, when and from whom that recovery comes. The government says the ₦1,350 ex-gantry/landing-cost reference will be reviewed monthly and published. That transparency must actually happen.

Oyedele did not win every round either.

He suggested the World Bank had said poverty was already falling. The Bank’s latest wording is more cautious: it says growth has improved and the poverty rate stabilised for the first time since 2019, with gradual reduction projected ahead.

That distinction matters.

But on the central subsidy argument, this interview moved the debate forward.

Adebayo brought “House of Commotion.” Osifo brought “subsidy by another name.” Seun brought the suspicion.

Oyedele finally brought the ledger. And the ledger asks every politician promising miracle petrol the same brutal questions: WHAT WILL IT COST? WHO PAYS? HOW LONG CAN IT LAST?

Because in economics, you can rename the invoice. You can hide it behind “production subsidy,” “cheap domestic crude,” “cost modulation” or political poetry.

But eventually— SOMEBODY MUST PAY THE BILL.

SEUN OKINBALOYE, ADEWOLE ADEBAYO & FESTUS OSIFO — THE ₦200 PETROL MAGICIAN CALLED GOVERNMENT CONFUSED; THEN OSIFO BROUGHT THE ARITHMETIC.

I have another headline framing in mind:

POLITICAL COMEDIAN ADEWOLE ADEBAYO’S ₦200 PETROL MIRACLE: HE CALLED TINUBU CONFUSED—THEN OSIFO EXPOSED THE REAL HOUSE OF COMMOTION

Prince Adewole Adebayo appeared on Channels Television’s Politics Today , throwing political grenades.

Like so many of these confused, rabble-rousing opposition figures, they can talk endlessly about the PROBLEM—until you ask them to provide the SOLUTION.

Tinubu’s government, he declared, is “genuinely and sincerely confused.” He even christened it: “TINUBU’S HOUSE OF COMMOTION.” Very witty.

Then Seun Okinbaloye asked the question every political comedian eventually fears: WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY?

And suddenly Prince Adebayo opened the doors to his own establishment: THE HOUSE OF ₦200 PETROL MIRACLES.

His formula? Allocate domestic crude to refiners. Remove taxes. Revive government refineries. Lower production costs.

Then—abracadabra— PETROL AT ₦200 PER LITRE. This from the same man mocking government for economic confusion.

Sir, crude oil does not lose its value because you redirect the tanker from Rotterdam to Lekki. If government supplies nationally owned crude below its market value, somebody absorbs that difference.

Call it domestic preference. Call it cost reduction. Call it Prince Adebayo’s economic holy water. THE COST HAS NOT DISAPPEARED.

You have merely MOVED THE INVOICE. Then came Festus Osifo. And unfortunately for Prince ₦200 Adebayo, Osifo brought petroleum economics to the miracle service.

Osifo explained that simply restarting Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna does not automatically produce cheaper petrol. These are old refineries with poorer conversion efficiency than modern facilities such as Dangote.

In other words: ADEBAYO SAYS: SWITCH THEM ON.OSIFO SAYS: EVEN IF THEY COME ON, THE ARITHMETIC STILL MATTERS.

Adebayo also ridiculed the government’s temporary fuel discount as “petrol-station-attendant economics.” Funny.

But what shall we call a presidential candidate promising to drag petrol from above ₦1,000 to ₦200 through cheap crude, tax concessions and ageing refineries without showing Nigerians the full fiscal cost?

Perhaps: PETROL-STATION MAGICIAN ECONOMICS. Or better: ABRACADABRA ECONOMICS.

Festus Osifo has a legitimate semantic point. But A TEMPORARY, REVIEWABLE INTERVENTION IS NOT THE SAME THING AS AN OPEN-ENDED UNIVERSAL SUBSIDY.

Perhaps Prince ₦200 PER LITRE Adebayo should be careful calling anybody’s government a House of Commotion.

Because from where Osifo was sitting, the louder noise was coming from: PRINCE ₦200 AND THE HOUSE OF ARITHMETIC FANTASY.

OPPORTUNITY COST DOES NOT HAVE A VOTER’S CARD. You cannot campaign it out of existence.

NEXT : TINUBU’S PETROL INTERVENTION IS NOT CONFUSION — IT IS WHAT GOVERNMENTS DO WHEN MARKETS ARE HIT BY SHOCKS
Adewole Adebayo calls the Tinubu government’s petrol intervention “confusion.” Really?
Then Germany, France, South Korea and the United States must all have attended the same school of confusion.

TINUBU’S CNG AMBITION NEEDS AKK DELIVERY.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has moved CNG from a technical conversation into a national economic strategy.

Vehicles are being converted. Conversion centres are expanding. Refuelling infrastructure is growing. Private capital is entering the sector. Nigerians increasingly see CNG as one of the quickest practical routes to cheaper transportation.

But there is one hard truth: THE CNG INDUSTRY CANNOT GROW FASTER THAN ITS GAS SUPPLY.

We can convert 120,000 vehicles, 500,000 vehicles or even one million. But every one of those vehicles ultimately needs gas.

And Northern Nigeria cannot build a mass CNG economy indefinitely on gas compressed hundreds of kilometres away in Kogi State and hauled north by cascade trucks. That is why the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano Pipeline is critical.

Nigeria has the gas. Nigeria increasingly has the vehicles. Nigeria is building the stations. What Northern Nigeria urgently needs is the gas-supply backbone connecting all three. That backbone is AKK.

NNPC says the mainline is complete. Excellent. But AKK delivery must mean more than completed welding.

It must mean completion of all remaining facilities, commissioning, testing, pressurisation, first gas, sustained commercial flow and actual availability of gas to Abuja, Kaduna and Kano for industries, power and CNG production.

Until that happens, AKK has not delivered its full economic purpose.AKK is complete for the Nigerian motorist when the gas flows.

It is precisely because we support President Tinubu’s CNG ambition that the private sector must now insist that gas-supply infrastructure keeps pace with conversion growth.

That is why the Private Sector Alliance for Accelerated CNG Growth — PRACNG is now launching the:LetTheGasFlow Campaign.

As a private-sector alliance committed to accelerating the growth of Nigeria’s CNG industry, PRACNG believes that the next critical challenge is ensuring that gas-supply infrastructure keeps pace with the rapid expansion of conversions, refuelling stations and private-sector investment.

Because without dependable gas supply, conversion centres cannot scale sustainably, daughter stations cannot operate reliably, investors cannot plan confidently, and motorists cannot fully enjoy the savings CNG promises.

The[b] LetTheGasFlow Campaign[/b] therefore calls for the full operational delivery of the AKK Pipeline — not merely completion of the mainline, but commissioning, testing, pressurisation and sustained commercial gas flow to Abuja, Kaduna and Kano.

Our demand is simple: COMMISSION IT. PRESSURISE IT. FLOW THE GAS.

Tinubu’s CNG revolution has started. Now give it the gas infrastructure to succeed.

#LetTheGasFlow
#PRACNG
#CharlesCNG

HAMZA IDRIS VS BOLAJI ABDULLAHI: BOLAJI BROUGHT LATIN, HAMZA BROUGHT A CALENDAR

Bolaji Abdullahi came to Trust TV’s Daily Politics prepared to fight The Economist with Latin. Hamza Idris eventually needed only three things: A CALENDAR. A CALCULATOR. AND A BALLOT BOX.

The controversy began with The Economist’s October 1 article projecting President Tinubu as the likely winner of the 2027 election. Bolaji attacked it as poor journalism, mocked its reliance on conversations in Borno and delivered a lecture on argumentum ad verecundiam—the fallacy of accepting a claim merely because an authority says it.

Fair enough. The Economist is not Moses returning from Mount Sinai with Nigeria’s 2027 result engraved on stone.

But Bolaji then performed his own trick: he reduced a multi-factor political analysis to “some people they spoke to in Borno.”

Meanwhile, Nigerians were already supplying harder evidence at the ballot box: APC won five of six June by-elections and four of five in the September 19 round—nine victories from eleven contests. Does that prove Tinubu will win in 2027? NO. But it is certainly stronger than pretending the argument begins and ends with a Borno anecdote.

Then came Osun. ADC’s Najeem Salaam managed just 17,180 votes—about 1.74%—while at National Secretary Rauf Aregbesola’s own polling unit the result was APC 256, Accord 43, ADC 13. Thirteen. Not thirteen thousand. THIRTEEN HUMAN BEINGS.

Before ADC lectures The Economist about Nigerian electoral reality, perhaps[i] it should explain why its National Secretary’s entire polling-unit army could fit inside one Toyota Hiace.[/i] !!

Then the conversation reached Atiku Abubakar’s promise to restore subsidy. Suddenly Professor Evidence became Pastor Believe-Me. ADC will subsidise locally produced petrol. Petrol will become cheaper. Nigerians will get relief.

Then Hamza committed the unforgivable journalistic offence of asking: WHEN? If Atiku enters office, when does cheaper petrol begin? May 29? Thirty days? Six months? One year?

And there the magnificent policy vehicle began coughing smoke. Bolaji complained that demanding “when” and “the date” did not make sense. Sorry?

You spend half an interview demanding evidence from everybody else, but when Hamza asks for a delivery date for your flagship economic promise, suddenly calendars become instruments of oppression?

THE ECONOMIST MUST BRING DATA. TINUBU MUST BRING NUMBERS. EXPERTS MUST BRING EVIDENCE.But Atiku?
ATIKU BRINGS A PROMISE. PLEASE RECEIVE IT BY FAITH.

To be fair, ADC now has more than a slogan: its published position describes a targeted production subsidy, capped, budgeted, audited and tied to domestic refining. So the question is not whether a policy outline exists.

The question is: WHERE WAS THE OPERATING MANUAL WHEN HAMZA ASKED FOR IT?

What does it cost? What crude discount? Who absorbs the difference? How is the benefit guaranteed to consumers? What happens if refiners take cheaper feedstock but margins rise later? What is the exit rule?

And most embarrassingly: WHEN DOES THE NIGERIAN AT THE PUMP ACTUALLY FEEL IT?

Bolaji offered the philosophy of subsidy when Hamza was asking for the engineering.

That is the difference between A POLICY and POLICY BY PROPHECY.

Then Hamza asked the nastier question: what if Atiku reaches office, sees the books and tells Nigerians, “Give me time”?

Bolaji called that speculation. Beautiful.

Apparently asking whether Atiku’s promise can survive contact with government accounts is speculation. Making the promise before seeing those same accounts is called VISION.

I cannot prove the more colourful rumours circulating about Atiku’s dwindling personal finances or alleged subsidy-industry campaign benefactors—and neither should anybody present gossip as evidence.

There is no need for rumours or gossip. The interview supplied enough material.

Atiku says he has discovered the medicine. Bolaji came to explain the prescription. Hamza merely asked for the dosage, the cost and when treatment begins—and suddenly the pharmacist started discussing philosophy.

That is the autopsy. EVIDENCE FOR TINUBU. FAITH FOR ATIKU.

MAMA AMAECHI NEVER JOINED ADC: A SON'S CRUEL WEAPONISATION OF HIS MOTHER'S MEMORY.

There should be some places even Nigerian politics is too dirty to enter. A mother's grave should be one of them. Rotimi Amaechi apparently disagrees.

On Channels Television, the former Speaker, former Governor, former Minister and now ADC vice-presidential candidate dragged the death of his 89-year-old mother into his prosecution of President Tinubu.

“Before Tinubu, my mother was healthy,” Amaechi said, arguing that rising drug costs made caring for her increasingly difficult.
Then came something even more grotesque: the suggestion that his departed mother would be happy if ADC wins in 2027.

Excuse me? When exactly did Mama Amaechi collect her ADC membership card?

This is where Wike's intervention cuts brutally through the theatre. Amaechi was Speaker for eight years, Governor for eight years and Minister for eight years. Twenty-four years around the commanding heights of Nigerian power.

Yet we are now asked to believe that this political aristocrat could not adequately afford his mother's medication because Bola Tinubu removed subsidy?

Wike asked the obvious question: what about the wealthy friends who subsequently descended on the funeral, some in private jets? Apparently, there was an air force available for the burial but no rescue squad for the pharmacy.

But the most spectacular own goal came from Amaechi's own ADC.

Its campaign council indignantly declared: “A mother's death and a family's grief should never be turned into material for partisan ridicule.” Correct! Absolutely correct!

There is only one tiny problem. WHO TURNED THE MOTHER'S DEATH INTO PARTISAN MATERIAL? Felix Morka? Wike? Tinubu?

Or the son who carried it onto national television while campaigning against Tinubu?

You cannot bring your mother's memory onto the political football pitch, put a jersey on it, kick it towards Tinubu's goalpost—and then scream sacrilege when the opposing team kicks the ball back.

Across much of traditional African thought, including the cultural world from which Amaechi comes, death does not make our elders disposable. The departed remain objects of memory, reverence and dignity.

We honour them. We don't register them to vote. We don't assign them political preferences from beyond the grave.

And we certainly shouldn't turn Mama's tombstone into a campaign billboard.

The irony is almost unbearable. When Mama Amaechi died, President Tinubu mourned her.

Now her own Political Desperado son appears determined to recruit her.

Mama lived 89 years. She raised her family. She served her community and her faith. Surely she earned one final privilege:

ROTIMI AMAECHI LET MAMA REST. Fight Tinubu with economics. Fight him with statistics. Fight him with policy.

But please, Mr Amaechi: leave your mother's grave out of the 2027 campaign.

PROF. AGBON GOT THE CNG COMPARISON WRONG: CNG IS THE ESCAPE FROM THE SUBSIDY TRAP

In my earlier article, “Prof. Agbon’s Cheap-Petrol Castle: A Subsidy Experiment Built on Dead Refineries,” I challenged Professor Izielen Agbon’s proposal to anchor cheaper petrol on revived state-owned refineries and production-cost pricing.

You can read that article here: https://www.nairaland.com/8759701/prof-agbons-cheap-petrol-castle-subsidy

Near the end of the interview, Professor Agbon pointed to CNG pricing as proof that government already intervenes in energy markets.

But he was comparing two very different ideas. Petrol subsidy tries to keep petrol cheap. CNG policy tries to make petrol less necessary.

One manages dependence. The other tries to break it. More importantly, Tinubu’s CNG strategy is not simply: GOVERNMENT PICKS A CHEAP PRICE AND PAYS THE DIFFERENCE FOREVER.

As Tinubu’s CNG emissary, Ismaeel Ahmed, masterfully explained to Seun Okinbaloye on Politics Today, the strategy is fundamentally different: government first tackles the chicken-and-egg problem.

Why convert your car when there is nowhere to buy CNG? Why invest in a CNG station when there are no converted cars?

So government helps stimulate conversions and infrastructure until investors can see customers. Then: PRIVATE CAPITAL FOLLOWS DEMAND.

Ahmed said private-sector commitments had reached about $2.5 billion. Operational CNG stations had grown from fewer than 10 before 2023 to around 90, with roughly 170 more in development.

And his most important sentence was not about price control.It was:“WE HAVE TO SATURATE THE MARKET WITH COMPETITION.”

That is the difference. Petrol subsidy says: Keep petrol cheap by continually intervening in petrol.CNG says:Give petrol competition.

More CNG vehicles. More stations. More investors. More buses. More operators competing for passengers.

That is why CNG is potentially the real economic opposite of subsidy removal. Subsidy removal created the shock; mass private-sector CNG adoption can become the quickest durable route to relief.

Not another permanently subsidised litre. Not another refinery rescue.Not another pricing experiment.

ANOTHER FUEL. ANOTHER CHOICE. ANOTHER MARKET. Government may start the engine.

But ultimately: THE MARKET MUST DRIVE THE CAR.

PROF. AGBON’S CHEAP-PETROL FORMULA IS ANOTHER SUBSIDY EXPERIMENT BUILT ON DEAD REFINERIES

Professor Izielen Agbon gave Seun Okinbaloye an intellectually interesting proposition on Channels Television’s Politics Today.

Agbon’s formula sounds wonderfully neat. Stop pricing petrol as though Nigeria imports every drop. Use the actual cost of Nigerian crude, local refining, transport and a reasonable profit margin.His destination? Petrol around ₦435–₦687.

Then comes the small problem carrying the entire proposal on its back: REPAIR THE GOVERNMENT REFINERIES.

Let NNPC refine efficiently. Let it become the supplier of last resort. Let Port Harcourt, Warri and Kaduna set the benchmark that disciplines Dangote and drags prices downward.

And there the beautiful theory drives straight into a Nigerian pothole.

Because Agbon’s cheap-petrol castle is being built on the heroic assumption that three state refineries with decades of dysfunction will suddenly become efficient, reliable and commercially disciplined.

That is not a foundation. That is economic scaffolding hanging in mid-air.In plain English: THE PLAN WORKS—IF THE REFINERIES WORK. And that is precisely why it is dead on arrival.

That is like **building a skyscraper on a foundation made of smoke and then arguing about the colour of the penthouse.**

NNPC itself appears to understand this. Bayo Ojulari is no longer simply saying, “Give us money and we will repair the refineries.” NNPC is seeking experienced technical-equity partners with capital, operational competence and skin in the game. It has even signed agreements aimed at finding such partners for Warri and Port Harcourt.

That tells you everything. Even NNPC does not trust the old state-refinery model enough to run it unchanged.

And Agbon’s “production-cost” formula still contains an intervention. If crude worth $80 internationally is deliberately supplied locally near extraction cost, the difference has not disappeared. Somebody absorbed it. Call it discount. Call it domestic reference.

Call it production pricing. It is still an economic transfer.

Then Seun Okinbaloye asked the killer question: Does this justify Atiku’s production subsidy? Agbon answered: “NO.”

Why? Because in a market where, by Agbon’s estimate, Dangote controls roughly half the supply, subsidising production does not guarantee the savings reach motorists. There is Atiku’s problem—in the professor’s own words.

Nigeria has tried subsidy, deregulation, refinery rehabilitation and price controls. Now another subsidy experiment?

ENOUGH ECONOMIC LABORATORY WORK. Fix competition. Expand supply. Expand alternatives.

But please stop building national economic policy on refineries that first need rescuing themselves.

WHY DID THE PETROL KING ALIKO DANGOTE CHOOSES CNG TO FIRE ALL HIS TRUCKS IN ALL HIS BUSINESEES?

If CNG is merely another government slogan, somebody apparently forgot to tell Aliko Dangote.The Richest and arguably the smartest man in Black Africa.

Think about the delicious irony. This is the man who owns Africa’s biggest petroleum refinery. A refinery built to produce petrol.
Petroleum products on an enormous scale.

Yet when Dangote has to decide what should actually power the trucks moving his own businesses around Nigeria, what does the petrol king choose? CNG.

That should make everybody stop for a minute. Because Aliko Dangote is not running a charity. He is not converting trucks because somebody in Abuja gave a beautiful speech.

He understands logistics down to the last naira because transportation cost can determine whether cement, sugar or fuel arrives competitively at the customer. And the numbers are extraordinary.

Dangote Cement has deployed thousands of CNG-powered trucks and publicly reported fuel-cost savings of more than 60% compared with diesel. Read that again. MORE THAN 60% FUEL-COST SAVINGS.

Then move from cement to the refinery. Dangote Petroleum Refinery committed hundreds of billions of naira to thousands of CNG-powered distribution trucks. Stop. A PETROL REFINERY. Using CNG trucks to distribute petrol.

If petrol and diesel were automatically the cheapest fuels for road logistics, why would the petrol king refuse to burn his own product in the trucks carrying it? Because business does not worship fuel. BUSINESS WORSHIPS COST.

And this is exactly what Ismaeel Ahmed — Tinubu’s frontline CNG/EV evangelist and market architect — explained to Seun Okinbaloye on Channels Television. Ahmed called CNG’s original challenge a chicken-and-egg problem.

Who converts when there are no filling stations? Who builds filling stations when there are no converted vehicles?

Government’s job was to break that paralysis—stimulate conversions, create demand and enable infrastructure until private money could see a profitable market.

Well, ladies and gentlemen: HERE COMES THE PRIVATE MONEY. And it does not get much more private than Dangote.

Government can preach CNG. PCNGI can convert vehicles. President Tinubu can encourage adoption.

But the real moment of truth arrives when somebody with billions of naira at risk sits with accountants, engineers and logistics experts and asks: WHICH FUEL SAVES ME MONEY?

Dangote’s answer is staring us in the face. CNG. And that matters beyond Dangote. Because thousands of trucks create exactly what investors in CNG stations need: DEMAND.

Thousands of cement trucks need gas. Thousands of refinery distribution trucks need gas. Other commercial fleets begin watching.
Suddenly building a CNG station stops looking like government charity. It starts looking like business.

And that is how markets become irreversible. One company converts. Another notices the savings.Another follows. Stations appear.

Supply expands. Competition grows. The chicken-and-egg paralysis begins to disappear.

Nigeria still needs far more refuelling infrastructure. Mother stations. Daughter stations. Virtual pipelines. Interstate corridors. Reliable gas distribution.

But Dangote’s decision tells us something important. Forget the politician for a moment. Forget the press release. Forget the commissioning ceremony.

Ask the businessman whose fortune depends on controlling cost: ALIKO, WHAT ARE YOU PUTTING IN YOUR TRUCKS? The answer is: CNG.

The petrol king can refine petrol. He can sell diesel. But when it comes to moving his own empire— HE IS FOLLOWING THE CHEAPER MOLECULE.

That is perhaps the most powerful advertisement CNG could ever receive. Not an endorsement. Not a government slogan. A BUSINESSMAN VOTING WITH BILLIONS OF NAIRA.

And when the petrol king himself chooses CNG to fire his trucks across his businesses, perhaps Nigerians should ask one very simple question: WHAT DOES ALIKO DANGOTE KNOW ABOUT THE ECONOMICS OF CNG THAT THE REST OF THE MARKET IS ONLY BEGINNING TO DISCOVER?

MANIR DAN ALI VS BABACHIR LAWAL: THE WAFFLING NAME-DROPPER — WITH ATIKU ALWAYS IN THE ROOM

Manir Dan Ali asked Babachir Lawal one simple question on Trust TV’s Daily Politics: Why did you leave ADC for NDC after barely three months?

What followed was not an answer. It was a guided tour through Babachir’s political attic.

ADC. Adamawa. Aisha Binani. David Mark. Ward primaries. His farm. His children. Buhari. How he became SGF. Mining. Senate Presidency permutations. Britain. Professional certifications. Old contracts.

By around minute 40, Manir was practically standing by the roadside with a whistle: SIR, CAN WE PLEASE RETURN TO THE PRESENT?

Babachir’s method was simple: WAFFLE. NAME-DROP. DIGRESS. REPEAT. Every question produced an anecdote. Every anecdote produced another politician. Every politician opened another door.

At one point, when Manir challenged his account, Babachir snapped: Are you calling me here to interview me or to tell me what you think? Ask questions and I answer.”

Later, he virtually sent Manir back to journalism school. But Manir had his moments. When Babachir alleged ADC primary results were switched, Manir immediately asked: “Can you prove that this switching was done?” Excellent.

Because Babachir was making serious allegations about manipulation and compromised officials. Yet instead of a clean chain— THIS HAPPENED. THIS PERSON DID IT. THIS DOCUMENT PROVES IT.—we got another instalment of The Babachir Lawal Political Memoirs.
And Atiku was somehow always in the room. Babachir says ADC wanted consensus. Apparently everybody wanted consensus—as long as everybody else stepped down.

Atiku emerged. Babachir alleged manipulation. He left. Then he entered NDC. And before he could properly unpack his suitcase, NDC people were already arguing about his new leadership role.

Then came the comedy. Asked about being a regional party leader, Babachir essentially asked: WHAT EXACTLY IS A “PARTY LEADER” ANYWAY?

Wonderful. The man being resisted as party leader was himself unsure what the office actually meant. Manir should have pounced: *“Then why should anyone recognise your authority?”*

As for manir , He challenged Babachir well, but allowed him to eat the clock. By the time the juiciest NDC intrigue arrived, the credits were already warming up.

Babachir kept saying: LET ME EXPLAIN. Oh, he explained. And explained. And explained.

Nearly fifty minutes later, Manir was still searching for the original answer.
BABACHIR LAWAL: A WAFFLING NAME-DROPPER WHO CAN TURN A YES-OR-NO QUESTION INTO A POLITICAL AUTOBIOGRAPHY.

Manir did well. But next time? LESS TOUR GUIDE. MORE TRAFFIC POLICE.

SEUN OKINBALOYE, ISMAEEL AHMED AND THE CHICKEN-AND-EGG BEHIND TINUBU’S CNG BET.”

Seun Okinbaloye asked Barrister Ismaeel Ahmed, OON — the Executive Chairman President Tinubu brought in to give the Presidential CNG Initiative stronger executive leadership, sharper market focus and a new sense of urgency — a brutally practical question on Channels Television’s Politics Today.

Tinubu put Ismaeel Ahmed at the top of Pi-CNG & EV, and increasingly, the reason is becoming clear: he appears to understand that government’s job is not to own the CNG market, but to create the conditions for private capital to build it.

President Tinubu says Nigerians should begin seeing lower transport fares. Fine.WHAT EXACTLY CHANGES? More buses? More filling stations? Which routes? How much cheaper?

Good question.

But Ahmed, Executive Chairman of the Presidential Initiative on CNG and Electric Vehicles, eventually gave an answer that was much bigger than October 1.

He explained the economic problem at the heart of Nigeria’s CNG transition. THE CHICKEN AND THE EGG.

Ahmed asked: “Am I going to convert my car when there’s no gas station?” Then reversed it: “Am I going to invest in a gas station when there are no converted vehicles… for the uptake?” There is the entire problem.

Why should motorists convert when they cannot conveniently buy gas? And why should a businessman invest billions in a CNG station when there are not enough CNG vehicles to guarantee customers?

NO VEHICLES BECAUSE THERE ARE NO STATIONS. NO STATIONS BECAUSE THERE ARE NO VEHICLES. Somebody has to break the deadlock.

That is where government enters. Ahmed explained PCNGI’s strategy: “We are going to convert cars, pull out the demand, create the demand market, make sure that the supply is there and then create an enabling environment so that capital will follow where the market is.”

That sentence may explain Tinubu’s CNG policy better than a hundred commissioning ceremonies. Government creates the initial conditions. Conversions create customers. Customers create demand. Demand creates what Ahmed called a “line of sight to profit.”

And once investors see profit: CAPITAL FOLLOWS THE MARKET. Ahmed pointed to Dangote’s thousands of CNG trucks as an example. Not charity.Not patriotism. ECONOMICS.

Then came another fascinating point in this revealing interaction between Seun and Ismaeel. The queues at CNG stations.

Ahmed called them a “good problem to have.” He did not mean queues are desirable.

He meant they reveal something important: DEMAND IS NOW OUTPACING SUPPLY. Yesterday the question was: WHERE ARE THE CUSTOMERS? Today the customers are waiting in line.

For an investor, that queue is not merely inconvenience. IT IS MARKET RESEARCH WITH HEADLIGHTS..
And that is where the second phase of Tinubu’s CNG experiment begins. Government cannot remain Nigeria’s permanent owner of the market.

It can catalyse demand. Finance early conversions. Support mother and daughter stations. Set standards. Remove regulatory obstacles. De-risk investment.

But eventually, an entrepreneur should look at Lagos–Ibadan, Abuja–Kaduna, Benin–Onitsha or Port Harcourt–Aba and say:

THERE ARE THOUSANDS OF VEHICLES HERE. I CAN MAKE MONEY SELLING THEM GAS. That is when the market becomes self-propelling.

Seun also pushed Ahmed on fares. If a transporter who previously spent ₦12,000 on petrol now spends perhaps ₦4,000 on CNG, why should the passenger still pay exactly the same fare?

Ahmed’s answer was important. Nigeria operates a capitalist economy. Permanent price control is not the solution. Instead:“We have to saturate the market with competition.” Exactly.

One CNG bus charges less. Passengers queue for it. Another operator notices. He converts. Another enters. More buses compete.

Supply increases. And eventually the cheaper energy begins forcing its way into cheaper fares. That is much more sustainable than government issuing circulars indefinitely.

The Presidency says the objective of the CNG programme is precisely to ensure that lower energy costs eventually translate into lower transport costs for ordinary Nigerians.

So the real test of Tinubu’s CNG policy should eventually stop being: HOW MANY VEHICLES DID GOVERNMENT CONVERT?

The better questions are: How much private capital has entered? How many stations are being built commercially? How many routes can sustain CNG without government holding everybody’s hand? How many operators are converting because the economics now compel them?

Because the real triumph of PCNGI will come when PCNGI no longer has to push every transaction. Government can start the engine.

THE MARKET MUST EVENTUALLY DRIVE THE CAR.

And the day investors stop asking: “WHERE IS THE CNG MARKET?” and start fighting one another for a share of it— THE CHICKEN-AND-EGG PROBLEM HAS BEEN SOLVED.

Ahmed seems to understand that the real job is not simply converting vehicles or buying buses. It is building a market — creating demand, attracting private capital, expanding supply and then allowing competition to take over.


NEXT : WHY DID THE PETROL KING ALIKO DANGOTE CHOOSES CNG TO FIRE ALL HIS TRUCKS IN ALL HIS BUSINESEES?
If CNG is propaganda, why is the man who owns Africa’s biggest petrol refinery spending hundreds of billions to make thousands of his own trucks run on it?”

INTERVIEW AUTOPSY: SEUN FORCED SHEHU SANI TO DEFEND TINUBU WITHOUT EXCUSING HIM.

There is a particular interviewing technique Seun Okinbaloye uses when he is at his best. He allows you to build your house.
Then he starts checking the pillars.

That was precisely what happened with Shehu Sani a few days ago on Politics Today.

Sani’s argument was provocative: Northern Nigerians have every constitutional right to shout “Tinubu Must Go.”

But if the grounds are insecurity and poverty, where was the equivalent regional mobilisation when Muhammadu Buhari—himself a northerner—presided over years of terrorism, banditry, mass kidnappings and poverty?

Sani first wisely protected himself from the obvious trap. “People have the right to express their opinion,” he said, insisting that both “Tinubu Must Go” and “Tinubu Must Stay” fall within democratic expression. Then came his punch:

“If this Tinubu Must Go agitation is coming from Northern Nigeria, why was it not during Buhari administration?”

Seun did not interrupt. He let Sani develop the argument. That is METHOD ONE: LET THE GUEST COMMIT.

Sani went through insecurity, poverty and what he described as Northern dominance of Buhari’s security architecture before asking why there had been no equivalent “Buhari Must Go” movement.

Then Seun struck. Was Sani therefore saying Northern agitators had no right to speak now because they did not speak under Buhari?

That question forced Sani to retreat from a potentially dangerous argument. “Everyone has the right to speak.”

Then came the line that should travel: “YOU MAY LACK THE MORAL GROUND, BUT YOU HAVE THE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT.”

That was METHOD TWO: REDUCE A LONG POLITICAL SPEECH TO ITS ACTUAL PROPOSITION. Seun did it again when Sani shifted from Buhari comparisons to claiming Tinubu had performed better on security.

“What gives you the confidence?” Sani cited killed terror commanders, reopened roads and the history of mass school abductions under Buhari. But importantly, he refused to pretend the problem had disappeared:

“They have done better. We are not there yet.” Then Seun deliberately pushed the argument to its extreme: “So, in your own estimation, Tinubu is a hero?” Sani refused the bait. “That’s how you have described it.”

He would only say Tinubu had performed comparatively better. That was METHOD THREE: EXAGGERATE THE GUEST’S CLAIM SLIGHTLY AND SEE WHETHER HE OWNS THE EXAGGERATION. Sani did not.

Seun immediately demanded specifics: what exactly had Tinubu done that justified Sani’s assessment?

And Sani ended with perhaps his most important concession: “Tinubu should be criticised.” “If people don’t criticise, there’s no democracy.”

“They are right to say he failed. But he can counter them with achievements…” That answer saved Sani’s argument from becoming mere APC cheerleading.

But the interview also exposed weaknesses Seun did not catch. Sani quoted 163 million Nigerians as multidimensionally poor under Buhari. The official 2022 NBS figure was 133 million.

He also suggested Buhari’s service chiefs were all northerners. That is inaccurate: Buhari’s 2015 Chief of Defence Staff Abayomi Olonisakin was from Ekiti and Navy Chief Ibok-Ete Ibas was from Cross River. Those were missed fact-check opportunities.

But as an interview, the exchange worked because Seun did not simply oppose Sani. He did something more useful. HE MADE SANI DEFINE HIS ARGUMENT. Not: Northerners should shut up. But: apply the same measuring tape.

Not: Tinubu has solved insecurity. But: Sani believes there has been comparative improvement.

Not: Tinubu is a hero. But: “We are not there yet.”

That is what an interview should do. DON’T JUST GIVE THE GUEST A MICROPHONE. MAKE HIM SURVIVE HIS OWN SENTENCES.

And this is exactly why Seun Okinbaloye and Hamza Idris of Trust TV have become two interviewers I personally enjoy watching.

They represent the kind of journalism I respect: calm enough to listen, prepared enough to remember, and sharp enough to know when an answer has created a new question. I do not need an interviewer performing outrage for me. I want someone who can sit quietly, let the guest talk, notice the contradiction, and then return with the one follow-up that matters.

That is what Seun does so well. Hamza does it too. They understand that the most dangerous question in an interview is often not the loudest one, but the simple one asked after the guest has already committed himself.

For me, that is good journalism: courteous, forensic, patient and difficult to escape.

Give the guest the microphone. Give him space. Give him respect. But never give him a free pass.

That is why Seun Okinbaloye and Hamza Idris remain two of CharlesCNG’s favourite interviewers.

INTERVIEW AUTOPSY: TRUST TV’S CLEMENT OLO DAY WOULDN’T LET ATIKU’S MAN ESCAPE THE $500,000 QUESTION


Trust TV kept asking. The answer kept going somewhere else. This time, CREDIT TO TRUST TV.

I watched the full Sunday Politics confrontation over the Mambilla controversy, and presenter Clement Olo Day did something journalists should do more often: He refused to allow “Atiku was never indicted” to become an answer to a different question: WHAT WAS THE $500,000 FOR?

That distinction is everything. The tribunal did not find that Atiku received a $500,000 bribe or corruptly awarded the Mambilla project.

The APC therefore cannot honestly convert a “significant red flag” into a criminal conviction. And Clement challenged the APC representative on precisely this point, even asking for documentary evidence that Atiku had supposedly been summoned to testify.

But then he turned to Atiku's representative, That was where the interview became fascinating.

The established transaction was uncomfortable enough: on January 30, 2003, Sunrise promoter Leno Adesanya's China Castle Investments transferred $500,000 into Jennifer Douglas's Citibank account. Adesanya later said it was part of a foreign-exchange transaction conducted for Atiku. The tribunal found that explanation lacked supporting documentary evidence.

Clement therefore asked the obvious question: If the tribunal didn't resolve what the payment was actually for, shouldn't Jennifer Douglas explain it?

The response was essentially that if the tribunal thought the transaction implicated her, it could have summoned her.

Clement came back. Why hasn't Atiku's camp separated itself cleanly from the Jennifer Douglas issue? Again, the answer returned to what the tribunal[b] didn't[/b] establish.

Later Clement asked almost word-for-word: What exactly was the money paid to Jennifer Douglas for?

The conversation wandered into Tinubu's American case, the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, lobbying, UN attendance and accusations of failed leadership.

Clement noticed. “ Isn't that changing the subject instead of answering the question?” That may have been the interview's most important moment. Because the $500,000 was not an isolated historical curiosity.

A 2010 U.S. Senate Permanent Subcommittee investigation documented a much larger financial trail involving Jennifer Douglas.

The Senate said Atiku and Douglas used U.S. accounts to bring more than $40 million in what it termed “suspect funds” into America between 2000 and 2008. Look at the transactions the Senate actually documented.

SIEMENS: three wire transfers in 2001–2002 totalling $1,772,644.71 entered Douglas's Citibank personal account. Siemens confirmed the transfers. Its outside investigation also identified another wire and nearly $2 million in additional cash payments.

CHINA CASTLE: $500,000 entered the same Douglas Citibank account on January 30, 2003—the transaction now resurfacing through the Mambilla arbitration.

LETSGO: the Senate's records show roughly $17 million sent to Douglas-related accounts between 2003 and 2008.

GUERNSEY TRUST COMPANY: at least $10 million was wired into the United States from 2003–2008, including at least $7 million [/b]to Douglas-related accounts.

[b]SIMA HOLDING: another stream of offshore transfers appears in the US Senate records. Together, LetsGo and Sima sent nearly $27 million into the United States, including money to Douglas and AUN-related accounts.

And then there is the AMERICAN UNIVERSITY OF NIGERIA trail.

American University told investigators that approximately $14 million arrived from offshore entities—about $13.1 million from LetsGo and $900,000 from Guernsey Trust Company—to pay consulting fees connected with establishing AUN. American University understood the money to have been supplied by Atiku but told investigators it had no dealings with those offshore companies beyond receiving their transfers.

Jennifer Douglas, through counsel, provided an extraordinarily important piece of context: regarding LetsGo, Guernsey Trust, Sima and China Castle, she said she had no personal knowledge of those entities and understood deposits from them to be money coming from her husband.

IF IT WASN'T A BRIBE, THEN WHAT EXACTLY WAS IT? Atiku's defenders repeatedly answer: “He was never indicted.”

Fine. But that doesn't explain the money. The U.S. Senate investigation documented a financial trail involving accounts connected to Atiku's then-wife, Jennifer Douglas: China Castle: $500,000. Siemens: about $1.77 million in[i] three documented transfers[/i], with additional payments identified in Siemens' investigation.

Then there were LetsGo, Guernsey Trust and Sima Holding—part of a much larger flow of millions.

Douglas's lawyers told Senate investigators[i] she had no personal knowledge[/i] of several of these offshore entities and understood their deposits to represent money coming from her husband.

So here is the embarrassingly simple question: WHAT WAS ALL THIS MONEY FOR?

Were they operating an[i] international husband-to-wife money-delivery service?[/i] ,
Did everybody somehow discover Jennifer Douglas's account whenever millions needed to cross an ocean?

These Atiku antecedents makes Clement's unanswered question very central and GERMANE.

On this interview, my verdict on Trust TV is different. THE JOURNALISM DID TRAVEL WITH THE MICROPHONE. Clement kept returning to the unresolved transaction. The Atiku representative kept returning to the absence of an indictment. Those are not the same question.

And after fifty minutes, one stubborn question was still sitting exactly where Clement found it: WHAT WAS THE $500,000 FOR?

CharlesCNG INTERVIEW AUTOPSY.
Where political arguments meet the evidence.

PETER OBI HAS A RUNNING MATE WHO KEEPS REWRITING HIS MANIFESTO ON LIVE TV.

I watched Rabiu Kwankwaso’s interview with Adesuwa Giwa-Osagie and somewhere around the fuel subsidy discussion I began checking the bottom of the television screen. Perhaps I had misunderstood the ticket.

“Why is it that everything around Peter Obi is always so shambolic, chaotic and disorganised?

PETER OBI: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. RABIU KWANKWASO: VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE. Correct. Because at several points Kwankwaso sounded remarkably like a man unveiling his own manifesto.

Take fuel subsidy. Peter Obi has repeatedly said subsidy removal should stand. His argument is that the old subsidy regime was corrupt and that the real scandal is what government did with the savings.

Enter his running mate. “We are bringing subsidy in our own way.” Excuse me? Who is “we”?

Then state police. Peter Obi supports state police, although he wants implementation after the 2027 election with proper safeguards. Kwankwaso? “I have always been against state police.”

Wonderful. One presidential ticket. Two security architectures.

Then refineries. Obi has argued for privatisation of the moribund government refineries. Kwankwaso says if private businessmen can build refineries, government can build refineries too.

At this stage, perhaps NDC should stop printing a manifesto and start printing a menu:SUBSIDY: Obi — No. Kwankwaso — Yes, but “our own way.”

STATE POLICE: Obi — Yes, with safeguards. Kwankwaso — No. STATE REFINERIES: Obi — Privatise. Kwankwaso — Government can build them.

PLEASE TICK YOUR PREFERRED PRESIDENTIAL POLICY.

And then Adesuwa asked perhaps the most delicious question of all. Does Kwankwaso believe Peter Obi won the 2023 presidential election?

His answer was essentially: No. That is gone. Let us face the future. Somewhere, an Obidient probably dropped a phone.

Nigerians are entitled to ask whether these two men have formed a GOVERNING PARTNERSHIP or merely a CONVENIENT ELECTORAL PARTNERSHIP.

Peter Obi already has enough difficulty imposing command over the sprawling political movements surrounding him. Now his running mate appears to have arrived with something even more ambitious: HIS OWN MANIFESTO.

And that raises the question Adesuwa came tantalisingly close to asking: WHO EXACTLY IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT HERE?

At this point, the problem is no longer policy disagreement. It is command. Peter Obi is the presidential candidate, yet his running mate is publicly offering Nigerians a different government.

Obi says keep subsidy removed; Kwankwaso says bring it back “in our own way.” Obi supports state police with safeguards; Kwankwaso says he has “always been against state police.”

That is not healthy intellectual diversity. That is a presidential ticket struggling to answer the most basic question in government: WHOSE POLICY IS POLICY?

A ticket can contain independent minds, but it must eventually produce ONE PROGRAMME, ONE CHAIN OF COMMAND and one answer to: WHAT EXACTLY WILL THIS GOVERNMENT DO?

That raises a broader leadership question around Obi: can he convert strong, autonomous personalities and movements into a coherent political machine?

Leadership does not eliminate disagreement; it resolves it into decisions. If Nigerians are hearing competing versions of an Obi presidency from Obi and his own running mate, the ticket has a serious coherence problem to explain before asking for executive power.

Because Nigeria is electing one presidency. Not a political duplex with separate policy entrances.

ONE TICKET, TWO MANIFESTOS: WHO EXACTLY IS THE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE?

Zionmdde:
His followers are organic

They are not zombies
They have a mind of their own

They can even bash Obi if he messes up
They don’t worship gods like Tinubu supporters worship him

Those are the kind of followers that will hold their leader to accountability

Not those that will rush to defend Tinubu’s piss and poo

You just described a HEADLESS MOB. And is this the kind of person that will LEAD Anything? God Forbid.