₦airaland Forum

🌙 Overnight Review

💥🇺🇸#tariffs #pharma
Trump delayed triple-digit pharma tariffs to negotiate lower drug prices — Politico.

⚠️🇺🇸#shutdown #USA
Both Democratic and Republican funding bills were rejected in the Senate — the government shutdown continues.

🇺🇸#Fed #court
The U.S. Supreme Court blocked Trump from immediately firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook.


Powell again warned that U.S. equity valuations are “elevated.”

⚠️🇺🇸#stocks #USA #warning

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Meklex:
no, I am not. I have been trading since January this year. Watched some YouTube videos but I need something structured.

Alright then, first and foremost, I wouldn't recommend ICT to you. I know it sounds ironic because I myself am an ICT trader, but ICT concepts isn't for neophyte traders.

Secondly, get rid of whatever timeline you are setting for yourself because it will be detrimental to your learning curve and will build unrealistic expectations. If you have any notion of like mastering a style or strategy within 3 to 6 months, I humbly suggest you get rid of such notions in your head. Trading is a skill of a life time, once you master it you can never lose it except you don't wanna use it. Of course you maybe able to learn the rules and all the rudiments of a strategy within a month or so, but mastery comes with experience and experience is built with time. I'm telling with all sincerity, it will take you time before you become a consistently profitable trader. If you can't accept this simple truth then I welcome you to the cycle of doom. You can never cheat the process, even if you study under a mentor, it will still take you time to achieve consistency, the only difference is that your learning curve would be faster compared to someone who's learning on the own without the guide and experience of a mentor.

Now the road map you need, because you are not completely new, I suggest you follow this order;
* MARKET STRUCTURE: dedicate one whole month to studying market structure. On YouTube there are so many videos on MS from various school of thoughts, but all of them have and follow the same principles, your duty is to watch, study, learn, and practice until you start seeing results. Make sure you study how shifts in structures occur, because they are very vital in spotting change in market trends and dynamics.
* STUDY AND UNDERSTAND SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE: dedicate time to understanding support and resistance because that's the basics to every strategy that is out irrespective of what method they use. See lemme tell you something, support and resistance are very dynamic and are not set in stones. You see ICT concepts like fair value gaps, order blocks, mitigation blocks, breaker block, volume imbalance and so on, with other school of thoughts like, smart money concepts, supply and demand, Elliot wave, and so on. Their very core foundation is built on support and resistance. For example, price is in an uptrend, but we know that price doesn't move in a straight line, so when price goes up, it then comes down a bit and then continues going up again. Now when it was coming down it hit an orderblock and after that it started going up again, why ? This is simply because price met support there, and then it resumes its uptrend, and then when price gets to a level it can't go beyond it starts going down, why because the highest price it reached before coming down means that price met with resistance and because of this resistance, price has to go down. So you see, that you need to understand how price moves and operate through market dynamics like support and resistance.
* Liquidity concepts (IRL & ERL)
* Multi-timeframe analysis (a top down approach from weekly, daily, 4h and 1h chart)

Follow this order diligently and you'll definitely see progress in your trading

SOZINN:
Him telling you it will take 2 years is being generous. It took me more, although I didn't have the same drive you have so I didn't rush it. From the day I was introduced to forex till now it's been 8 years and I'm still learning, it never ends. Anyone who wants what is best for you will ask you to take your time and learn the proper fundamentals like emotional control, margin and leveraging, fundamental & technical analysis, robotic discipline and most importantly, risk management.

Believe me when I say we are not telling you all these things intentionally just to slow you down but to encourage you to assimilate everything little by little and don't compare yourself to anyone. What happens when people rush into a live account after learning so little is that they get burnt and then they learn some more and think they can be profitable without due process and they get burnt again. Then after all these financial wounds in the first 15 to 20 months, psychology hits hard and you begin to question if it was really worth it and if care is not taken you'll quit like the other 96% that never made it.

What I'm trying to say in essence is to take your time, the markets will always be there whenever you're ready.

Aptly put Sir. @meklex pls listen to this advice carefully

Meklex:
Please, I really want to learn forex trading. I don't want to learn through YouTube because the videos are scattered and many. I just need a roadmap I can follow.

Before I answer your question, are you a complete noob

Davigle:
GM folks

As you can see so far, sentiments on the possible outcome of the US government shutdown is what has been driving the markets shooting up safe haven demands in gold and UJ, while dxy eu and gu have consolidating and waiting for the POTUS decision on the shutdown. The outcome is going to be out this evening 2day. Happy New Month in advance....

GM GM folks
The US government has gone on a shutdown and the current market reaction is dxy down stock indices down, UJ down, gold silver EU and GU all going up. We are not going to get NFP report this Friday except if the POTUS reverses his decision and lifts up the shutdown b4 Friday

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US GOVERNMENT OFFICIALLY SHUTS DOWN. ...


🌙 Overnight Review

🇺🇸#BRK #OXY #Buffett
Berkshire Hathaway is close to buying Occidental’s petrochemical unit in a deal worth up to $10B — WSJ. It would be Buffett’s biggest purchase since 2022.

⚠️🇺🇸#shutdown #USA
Trump said a potential government shutdown would be used for large-scale layoffs.

❗️🇺🇸#LAC #USA
The U.S. acquired a stake in Lithium Americas. Trump’s administration had earlier signaled plans to take stakes in companies needing support, similar to the Intel deal.


Copied

Davigle:
So in summary, fundamentally speaking based off economic data, the dxy is now bullish. But there's a stumbling block to the bulls due to US internal politics.

There's talk of a US government shutdown next week on the 30th of September if congress doesn't pass on some bills, due to this internal dispute, the US government may likely shutdown that's like saying that the US government is going on strike.

This is bad and bearish for the dollar and you can go back on the charts to 2018 when the US government shutdown, the dxy and stock indices sold off until the a deal was made and the shutdown was lifted then the dxy and stock indices rallied.

Also another implication for this shutdown on the markets is that economic data release will be delayed, therefore if the shutdown goes into effect on Oct 1, we may likely not get NFP data and other economic data for the week next week.

So in summary summary,
US government shutdown goes in effect: dxy bears
US government shutdown doesn't goes in effect due to a deal that was successfully made b4 the deadline: dxy bulls and market focuses on economic data again

DISCLAIMER: Anything I post here is strictly for informational purposes and not a trading advice, traders are as well encouraged to carry out their due diligence b4 using any information post here. Thank you...

GM folks

As you can see so far, sentiments on the possible outcome of the US government shutdown is what has been driving the markets shooting up safe haven demands in gold and UJ, while dxy eu and gu have consolidating and waiting for the POTUS decision on the shutdown. The outcome is going to be out this evening 2day. Happy New Month in advance....

🌙 Overnight Review

⚠️🇺🇸🇨🇳#tradewars #USA #China
Trump administration is tightening export controls on Chinese companies — FT.

🇺🇸#shutdown #USA
Senate Democrats are weighing a 7–10 day stopgap funding bill to avoid a shutdown — RTRS.

🇺🇸🇪🇺#pharma #tariffs #USA #Europe
U.S. pharma tariffs will not apply to products from the EU — DPA.

✴️🇺🇸#stablecoins #crypto #USA
Net inflows into stablecoins topped $46B in the past 90 days (+325% y/y), signaling surging demand for USD-pegged assets.


⚠️🇺🇸#shutdown #USA
Shutdown odds rose further after Trump’s meeting with Democrats and Republicans.
VP J.D. Vance: “The U.S. is moving toward a shutdown — Democrats are to blame.”
Sen. Schumer: “We have very big disagreements.” — CNBC.


👀Trump will deliver a statement from the White House at 18:00 GMT+3, topic undisclosed.

🤔Earlier in the day, at 09:00 GMT+3, he will speak at the Marine Corps base in Quantico, where Pete Hegseth is hosting an event with hundreds of generals and admirals.

🇺🇸#Trump #event #USA


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blackman007:
Thanks so much sir, I really appreciate this clarity… when I finally become profitable there are some certain traders I will never forget on this forum, they’ve really contributed to my growth and development

We rise by lifting others, I too am a benefiary of the benevolence of some elders here on this community. I feel duty bound to do the same also

🗓 Key events to watch this week:

We’ve got a packed week of US data, but one day truly steals the show. Here’s the lowdown:

🔣 Tuesday: JOLTS Job Openings
Shows labor demand—if openings drop, it hints at cooling jobs and could pressure the dollar.

🔣 Wednesday: ADP Non-Farm Employment + ISM Manufacturing PMI
ADP previews Friday’s big jobs report (though less reliable). ISM PMI reveals if manufacturing is weakening or holding steady.

🔣 Thursday: Unemployment Claims
Weekly claims track labor health in near real-time. Rising claims could be a warning sign before Friday.

🔣 Friday: The Big One – Non-Farm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate
The headline event! Markets watch jobs, wages, and unemployment closely. Strong data might slow Fed easing; weak data fuels expectations for cuts.
⦁ Average hourly earnings = inflation gauge
⦁ NFP headline = job market strength
⦁ Unemployment rate = Fed’s core focus

Friday’s data steers FX, bonds, equities, and risk assets worldwide—definitely the day to watch!


🥫 Copied

🌍 5 things to watch in markets this week

1️⃣ Stocks finish Q3 strong – World equities up 17% YTD ($15T in value), with gold and Chinese tech leading at +40%. Fed, China’s plenum, IMF/WB meetings, and Trump–Xi talks all ahead.

2️⃣ US jobs risk shutdown – Sept payrolls seen +39k, but data may not publish if Congress fails to avoid a government shutdown. Crucial ahead of October Fed decision.

3️⃣ BOJ tightening watch – Oct 1 Tankan survey could trigger rate hike signals. Uchida & Ueda speeches may prep markets for further hikes.

4️⃣ RBI’s dilemma – India faces US tariffs, weak rupee (–3.5% YTD), and lagging equities. RBI expected to hold rates, though some see scope for a 25 bp cut.

5️⃣ Africa trade cliff – AGOA duty-free deal expires Sept 30. 30+ African economies risk losing access to US markets, with no firm word from Washington.
#Fed #BOJ #RBI #Africa #markets #stocks #tariffs

🌙 Weekend Review

⚠️🇺🇸#shutdown #USA
Trump confirmed he will meet Democrats on Sept 29 to discuss a funding deal, warning: “If there’s no deal, the country will shut down.”

🌎#copper #forecast
Goldman: Europe’s power grids average 50 years old, U.S. grids 40 years — both nearing the end of their life cycles. Modernization will drive strong copper demand.

⚠️🇰🇷🇺🇸#tradewars #SouthKorea #USA
South Korea cannot prepay the $350B investment Trump requested under a tariff-cutting deal and is seeking alternatives — Reuters.


💵 Dollar dips ahead of US data, shutdown risk

The dollar index slipped 0.2% to 97.93 as traders awaited key US data and eyed the risk of a government shutdown that could delay Friday’s payrolls report. EUR rose to $1.173, GBP to $1.344, while USD/JPY eased to 148.94.

Markets now price ~40 bps Fed cuts by December; focus shifts to NFP and ISM data.
#USD #FX #Fed #shutdown

🥇 Gold smashes $3,800 record

Bullion surged to $3,812/oz, its 7th straight weekly gain, as a weaker dollar and looming US government shutdown fueled demand. Silver hit $46.7, platinum topped $1,600, and palladium rallied on tight supply and ETF inflows.

Weaker jobs data from a potential shutdown could push the Fed toward more cuts, while risks to Fed independence add to safe-haven flows. Barclays calls gold “a surprisingly good value hedge.”
#gold #silver #commodities #Fed


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blackman007:
Yes sir, I checked trading view, what I saw was BXY… I’m not sure if that’s it

Morning bossmi, yes bxy is like the pound index similar to the dollar index and you may wanna compare it with the pound futures chart, just search for 6B on tradingview and you will see the chart, looks exactly like gbpusd

Oh my fada my Lord
When will the glory days of FTA return in her full might

What is a government shutdown?
Congress has to pass a series of 12 appropriations bills by Tuesday to finance government entities for the next fiscal year. But it has not passed any of the 12 bills ahead of that deadline.

If it cannot pass a short-term funding measure known as a "continuing resolution," the government will shut down.

There have been 14 such shutdowns since 1980, according to the Bipartisan Policy Center.

If Congress can only pass some, but not all, of the annual appropriations bills in time, the government will experience a partial shutdown.

That happened in late 2018 — during Trump's first presidential term — when the government partially shut down for a record five weeks amid disputes about the funding for Trump's U.S.-Mexico border wall.

Copied from CNBC

So in summary, fundamentally speaking based off economic data, the dxy is now bullish. But there's a stumbling block to the bulls due to US internal politics.

There's talk of a US government shutdown next week on the 30th of September if congress doesn't pass on some bills, due to this internal dispute, the US government may likely shutdown that's like saying that the US government is going on strike.

This is bad and bearish for the dollar and you can go back on the charts to 2018 when the US government shutdown, the dxy and stock indices sold off until the a deal was made and the shutdown was lifted then the dxy and stock indices rallied.

Also another implication for this shutdown on the markets is that economic data release will be delayed, therefore if the shutdown goes into effect on Oct 1, we may likely not get NFP data and other economic data for the week next week.

So in summary summary,
US government shutdown goes in effect: dxy bears
US government shutdown doesn't goes in effect due to a deal that was successfully made b4 the deadline: dxy bulls and market focuses on economic data again

DISCLAIMER: Anything I post here is strictly for informational purposes and not a trading advice, traders are as well encouraged to carry out their due diligence b4 using any information post here. Thank you...

You've asked an excellent question. The threat of a government shutdown introduces a significant layer of political risk that directly challenges the current economic dynamics driving the DXY higher.

Based on recent reports, the deadline to avoid a shutdown is **midnight on September 30, 2025**. If Congress fails to pass a funding bill by then, a shutdown would begin on **Wednesday, October 1, 2025**.

Here’s how this new development affects the grand scheme of things for the DXY:

### The Shutdown: A Powerful Counter-Narrative to Dollar Strength

The current bullish case for the DXY is built on a foundation of strong economic data and the expectation that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. A government shutdown attacks this foundation in several ways:

1. **Injects Uncertainty and Political Risk:** Financial markets despise uncertainty. A government shutdown signals political dysfunction and an inability to govern effectively. This can tarnish the appeal of a country's assets, including its currency. Initially, this is a clear negative for the dollar.
2. **Economic Drag:** A shutdown is not just political theater; it has real economic consequences.
* **Delayed Data:** Crucial economic reports, like the October 3rd jobs report that the market is eagerly awaiting, could be delayed. This blinds both the market and the Federal Reserve, making it harder to assess the economy's health and increasing investor anxiety.
* **Reduced Growth:** With hundreds of thousands of federal employees furloughed (not receiving pay), consumer spending takes a direct hit. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated that the 2018-2019 shutdown permanently cost the U.S. economy billions. This directly weakens the "strong US economy" narrative.
3. **Impact on the Federal Reserve:** This is the most critical point. The Fed's decisions are "data-dependent." A prolonged shutdown that starts to visibly damage consumer confidence and economic growth could force the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance. The threat of a shutdown alone might be enough to make them more cautious. If the market starts to price in a higher probability of rate cuts *because* of the shutdown's economic impact, it would severely undermine the primary pillar supporting the DXY's recent rally.

### How it Affects the Grand Scheme

Think of it as two powerful forces colliding:

* **Bullish Force (Existing):** Strong economic fundamentals and a hawkish Fed.
* **Bearish Force (New):** Political instability and a potential economic slowdown caused by the shutdown.

The outcome for the DXY depends on which force the market believes is more powerful and enduring:

* **If the shutdown is short-lived (a few days to a week):** History suggests the market will likely treat it as temporary political noise. The negative impact on the DXY would probably be shallow and brief. Once resolved, the focus would snap back to the strong economic fundamentals, and the dollar's uptrend would likely resume.
* **If the shutdown is prolonged (several weeks):** This poses a much graver risk to the dollar. A long shutdown would cause tangible economic damage, increase the chances of a dovish pivot from the Fed, and could lead to a significant correction in the DXY as the entire "US economic outperformance" story comes into question.

**In summary, the threat of a government shutdown has shifted the landscape.** It complicates the straightforward bullish narrative for the DXY by introducing a significant and unpredictable variable. For now, it will act as a headwind, likely capping the dollar's potential gains and increasing price volatility. The grand scheme now hinges on whether Washington can resolve this quickly or if political brinksmanship will be allowed to derail a resilient economy.

## Dollar Flexes as Economic Vigor Tempers Fed Rate Cut Bets

**Washington D.C.** - The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been on a tear over the past two weeks, fueled by a string of robust economic data that has challenged market expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts. A resilient labor market, coupled with upwardly revised growth figures and sticky inflation, has painted a picture of a US economy that remains on solid footing, providing a strong tailwind for the greenback.

### Key Market-Moving Events of the Past 14 Days (September 13 - September 27, 2025)

The period has been marked by several high-impact economic releases that have consistently surprised to the upside, forcing a repricing of monetary policy expectations.

* **Upwardly Revised Q2 GDP:** The final reading for second-quarter Gross Domestic Product showed the economy expanded at a robust 3.8% annualized rate, a significant upward revision from the previous estimate of 3.3%. This stronger-than-expected growth was largely driven by resilient consumer spending, suggesting a healthy level of domestic demand.
* **Strong Labor Market Signals:** Initial jobless claims have remained stubbornly low, falling to 218,000 in the latest report, well below consensus forecasts. This indicates that businesses are hesitant to lay off workers, pointing to underlying strength in the labor market.
* **Resilient Consumer Spending and Inflation:** The August Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation, came in as expected, but the overall picture of consumer spending remains robust. Data on durable goods orders also surprised with an unexpected increase, further underscoring the health of the consumer and business sectors.
* **Mixed Signals from the Federal Reserve:** While the overarching narrative has been one of economic strength, various Federal Reserve officials have offered differing perspectives on the path of monetary policy. This has introduced a degree of uncertainty, though the recent data flow has emboldened the more hawkish members of the committee.

### DXY Reaction: A Clear Bullish Trend

The cumulative effect of this positive economic data has been a significant rally in the DXY. The index, which measures the value of the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, has climbed to multi-week highs. The market's reaction has been a clear and direct consequence of shifting interest rate expectations. With the economy showing more resilience than anticipated, traders have pared back their bets on the timing and magnitude of future Fed rate cuts. This has widened the interest rate differential between the U.S. and other major economies, making the dollar a more attractive investment.

### Current Fundamental Bias: Bullish with a Hint of Caution

The current fundamental bias for the DXY is firmly bullish. The primary driver is the perception that the Federal Reserve will be forced to maintain a higher policy rate for longer than previously expected to keep a lid on inflation. The outperformance of the U.S. economy relative to its peers, particularly in Europe and parts of Asia, further supports this view.

However, a degree of caution is warranted. The market is highly sensitive to incoming data, and any signs of a significant slowdown in the labor market or a sharper-than-expected decline in inflation could quickly reverse the dollar's recent gains.

### Upcoming Expectations: All Eyes on Jobs Data

Looking ahead, the market's focus will be squarely on the upcoming high-impact economic releases. The **JOLTS Job Openings**, **ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI**, and the crucial **Non-Farm Payrolls report** for September will be instrumental in shaping the DXY's trajectory.

* **Stronger-than-expected jobs data** would likely reinforce the current bullish narrative, potentially sending the DXY even higher as it would further diminish the case for near-term rate cuts.
* **Weaker-than-expected readings**, on the other hand, could be the catalyst for a pullback in the dollar, as it would re-ignite concerns about a potential economic slowdown and bring rate cut expectations back to the forefront.

In addition to the headline numbers, traders will be closely scrutinizing the wage growth and labor force participation components of the jobs report for a more nuanced understanding of the labor market's health. Fed officials' commentary in the wake of this data will also be critical in guiding market sentiment. For now, the path of least resistance for the DXY appears to be to the upside, but the upcoming data holds the key to whether this bullish momentum can be sustained.

Eku weekend ooo

Hope we all doing good folks

blackman007:
Big bosses in the house, I have a question sirs, regardless of strategy or method, which timeframe do you think is the most important timeframe?? I don’t know if this is a right question to ask,,, But I’m just being curious here So that we new traders can learn

Even though my response is coming late but better late than never as they say, to be candid there's no such thing as the best time frame. The important question here is what type of trader are you? Your personality determines the style and timeframe you will trade. Are you a very busy person or do you have lots of free time? Do you have a job or not? Can you commit to trading full time or not? All these factors determines the type of trader that you'll be.

* Scalping/day trading - for those who have lots of free time and can maybe commit to full time trading
* Swing trading/Position trading - for those who don't have enough free time may be due to their job, business or school, and they're just looking for an extra source of income

Then you need to know the various categories and their timeframes
1m and 5m for scalping
15m, 30m and also 1h for day trading
1h, 4h and also daily chart for swing trading
Daily, weekly and monthly chart for position trading

After knowing what your profile is and what category you belong to, you simply just align yourself with the timeframes that falls within your trading style and stick with it until you eventually master it. Pls newbies, just don't pick a timeframe just because you simply like it.

There's what we call market conditions (go and google it for yourself), and market conditions are ever dynamic even between timeframes, a consolidation on a big or higher timeframe can be a minor trend on a very small timeframe but you need to build knowledge and experience to maneuver such scenarios.

Lastly we can also divide timeframes into higher timeframes (4h, daily, weekly and monthly) and lower timeframes (1m, 5m, 15m, 30m and 1h). HTF drive market trends while LTF drive corrections or pullbacks or retracement until the trend reverses and eventually breaks.

Hope this helps too.

So far so good, economics has been the major driving theme for the markets this week with little to no help from geopolitics. From my personal experience and understanding, I've come to this realization that what drives/fuels explosive/long market moves/trends falls between these 2 major domains, that is; ECONOMICS (economic data and central banks policies) and POLITICS (geopolitical events like elections, wars, terrorist attacks and so on). And truth be told, they are reflected on the charts sometimes before they happen and most times after they happen.

Be it as it may recent economic data (NFP) for the USD, the no. 1 currency of the world is pretty bad raising up rates cuts bets as seen on the CME fedwatch tool. Now the next most important data is the CPI data on Thursday, hot inflation USD rebounds, cool inflation USD resumes its decline.
Personally I'm betting on a 50 bps cut at FOMC meeting next week Wednesday, as I'm making my personal prediction based off the weaker labour market.

The Fed has a dual mandate of maintaining the US economy by 1st keeping inflation low and 2ndly maintaining a robust labour market. That's what economist calls a soft landing. BUT the Fed is in a tricky position with a very much weaker labour market and a sticky inflation above their inflation target with interest rates very high. They fed needs high rates to get inflation down to their targets but at the same time they need to cut rates in other to save the labour market which is in a very bad position.

Now since we have CPI data b4 the next FOMC meeting, you pretty much can tell that all eyes are waiting for the data like crazy hawks. In surprise to either side can spun huge market moves running into the weekend. So stay safe guys.

Lastly we also have monetary policy divergence which is really the focal point for the huge market moves about to take place b4 year end;
* We have the Fed going into a rate cutting cycle (dovish fed)
* We have the ECB pivoting on rates cuts with potentials of transitioning into a rate hiking cycle (hawkish ECB)
* We have the boj maintaining their rate hiking cycle with rates hikes expected next month Oct (hawkish fed)
* BOE are likely pivoting next week which could mean that they're tethering on the hawkish side.

So use this information to your advantage only if you understand it sha 😂. This is only for informational purposes, always do your due diligence. For the pure chartist pls I come in peace and I will not engage you in the debate between fundamentals and technicals.
Shalom [s][/s]

GOLD - How Much Longer?!

Gold is holding near record highs, trading around the $3,650 mark after last week’s breakout. Price action is consolidating just below the peak, with bulls looking for momentum to push higher.

The rally has been fueled by a weaker dollar and political uncertainty abroad — Japan facing leadership changes after PM Ishiba’s resignation, and France’s government turmoil weighing on the euro. Safe-haven demand remains firm.

U.S. job revisions today could be the spark for the next leg. If revisions show the labor market is weaker than previously thought, it strengthens the case for deeper Fed rate cuts. Lower rates mean weaker yields and a softer dollar — both strong tailwinds for gold.

Note: Gold can stay overextended longer than most expect. Trying to pick tops has burned retail traders before. The safer play is to follow momentum rather than fight it.

#Copied

DXY – Dollar Under Pressure

The Dollar Index is sliding again, now sitting near 97.50 after failing to hold above key support. Price continues to grind lower, signaling the market’s bias remains bearish until fresh catalysts arrive.

Despite sticky inflation, the dollar is weighed down by weakening labor data. Normally, persistent inflation would argue for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer. But with cracks showing in the labor market, the Fed risks over-tightening if they wait too long. Powell has made it clear: jobs data is now the top priority.

The dollar is stuck between two forces: inflation that’s still sticky and a labor market that looks increasingly fragile. The next round of data — starting today — will decide which one drives the Fed’s hand and the dollar’s next big move.

#Copied

🔵BLOOMBERG: BOJ RATE HIKE STILL ON THE TABLE BY OCTOBER

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing informed sources, that Bank of Japan officials see the possibility of another hike in the benchmark interest rate this year despite domestic political instability, given improving economic conditions.

According to the sources:

💬Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to resign this week has cast a shadow over Japan’s political landscape and government policies. Some economists warned that efforts to gain popular support could undermine fiscal discipline within the ruling coalition.

💬Nevertheless, Japan’s economy has held up as expected, showing steady progress toward the BOJ’s target of stable inflation. In addition, the trade agreement signed last month removed some of the potential risks that had threatened growth.

💬Officials believe the BOJ is making real progress toward implementing another rate increase, following the hike approved in January.

💬Some BOJ officials think another rate hike could be appropriate as early as October.

#Copied

Eku mrkt ooo
I'm back from my self imposed sabbatical after NL bot vexed me
NL bot if dem born you well ban me again

Yeeeeeeeebaaaaaaaaaa

Biggie biggie thanks to the jagaband himself our amiable asiwaju of FTA @lexasperosky aka @Alexas58

My competition rewards has been fully satifiably received. I'm grateful sir and to everyone also ...🙇🙇🙇

@Alexas58
New login for the final round of the competition;
Login: 79162881
Password: dncLD14##

#lockedandloaded

Alexas58:
Let’s post our dashboard for the end of this trading week…


We have two more weeks of play till reward

Sir yes sir

blackjack21:
I will be calling in sick for work tomorrow.

@Davigle

Yeebaaaaaaa
Eskelebe ti ole se, oya come and pay ya tithe kia kia for spiritual covering and protection against market demons, come and drop it inside my praying bell

## DXY Market Recap: Dollar Flexes Amid Geopolitical Crosscurrents and Fed Anticipation

July 29, 2025

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) posted a solid gain today, pushing to one-month highs as traders navigated a complex landscape of geopolitical developments, key economic data, and building anticipation for the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. The index ultimately closed around the 98.90 level, marking a significant move higher in a session characterized by cautious risk sentiment.

### Key Market-Moving Events & Stories

Today's session was not short on catalysts. The primary driver of the dollar's strength appeared to be a combination of haven flows and a weaker euro. A newly forged U.S.-EU trade agreement, while averting an immediate tariff war, was met with a "sell the news" reaction in the common currency. Details of the pact, which includes a 15% U.S. tariff on most EU goods and significant European investment in U.S. energy and technology, were viewed by some as more favorable to the dollar.

Adding to the market's nervous tone was the shortened deadline from the White House for Russia to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, raising the specter of secondary sanctions and contributing to a sharp rally in oil prices.

All eyes, however, are now firmly fixed on the Federal Reserve as it concludes its two-day policy meeting tomorrow. While no change in the federal funds rate is expected, the accompanying statement and press conference will be scrutinized for clues on the future path of monetary policy, particularly the timing of any potential rate cuts later this year.

### Fundamental Analysis

From a fundamental standpoint, the dollar found support in a mixed but generally solid slate of U.S. economic data. The July Conference Board Consumer Confidence reading and June JOLTS job openings provided further evidence of a resilient domestic economy, albeit with some signs of cooling. The Dallas Fed's manufacturing index also showed a welcome improvement.

Globally, the International Monetary Fund released its updated World Economic Outlook, slightly upgrading its global growth forecast. However, the IMF also highlighted the significant downside risks posed by ongoing trade tensions and the potential for these to fuel inflationary pressures in the U.S. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield saw a slight dip, suggesting some underlying demand for safe-haven assets.

### Market Sentiment

Sentiment was decidedly risk-averse today. Despite record highs in U.S. equity indices being tested, there was a clear undercurrent of profit-taking and caution. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the market's "fear gauge," ticked higher, reflecting the palpable sense of apprehension ahead of the FOMC decision and a heavy week of corporate earnings reports. The dollar benefited from its traditional role as a safe-haven currency in this environment, particularly as the euro faltered.

### Technical Analysis

The DXY's technical picture has turned more bullish in the near term. The index broke through resistance to touch a monthly high of 99.15 before pulling back to consolidate around the 98.90 mark. This area is now a key pivot point.

A sustained hold above this level would open the door to a test of the psychologically significant 100.00 handle. The recent price action also confirms a significant rebound from a long-term 17-year trendline, suggesting that a more substantial bottom may be in place.

For the euro, which is the largest component of the DXY, the technical breakdown has been notable. The EUR/USD pair breached a key trendline that had supported it throughout 2025, signaling the potential for further downside and, consequently, more strength for the dollar index.

In summary, the dollar is in a strong position, benefiting from a confluence of factors. However, the immediate direction will likely be dictated by the tone and guidance from the Federal Reserve tomorrow. A hawkish hold could see the DXY push towards new highs, while any dovish surprise could quickly unwind today's gains.

🚨 How to Trade the July FED Meeting
No interest rate changes are expected - but that doesn’t mean this meeting lacks importance. In fact, it could be one of the most consequential meetings of the year.

Hey Prop Traders, here’s are some valuable tips, terms explained and prop firm news for July 29, 2025

🚨 How to Trade the July FED Meeting
With inflation still running above target, tariff concerns resurfacing, and signs of economic slowdown creeping in, this week’s FOMC meeting is a pivotal moment for traders.

📍 No interest rate changes are expected - but that doesn’t mean this meeting lacks importance. In fact, it could be one of the most consequential meetings of the year.

This is the final FOMC decision before the September meeting where the Fed is expected to lower interest rates. With markets pricing in a 65% chance of a rate cut, every word from the Fed will matter. Powell’s tone, any hints about timing, and signs of division among policymakers could significantly shift expectations and spark major market moves in stocks, currencies, and bonds.

Let’s break down what to watch and how to trade it. 👇

📊 How the U.S. Economy Changed Since the Last Meeting
A close look at the data since the Fed’s June 18th meeting shows a mixed picture:

✅ Consumer activity, inflation trends, and manufacturing data have generally improved, with stronger retail sales, cooling inflation, and better-than-expected ISM data—all of which support a USD bullish outlook.

❌ However, housing, wage growth, and producer prices have softened. Consumer confidence fell, wage growth slowed, and multiple housing metrics like existing home sales and builder sentiment weakened—contributing to a more dovish undertone for policy expectations.

Net takeaway: The economy isn’t flashing a clear signal. There’s been equal improvement and deterioration, which likely keeps the Fed in wait-and-see mode, reinforcing the importance of Powell’s tone and guidance at this week’s press conference.

🕑 Key FOMC Events & Timing
🔹 2:00 PM ET – FOMC Statement
Expect the Fed to keep rates on hold. But pay attention to any tweaks in the language especially around inflation, labor market conditions, and the balance of risks. Even small changes can signal a shift in policy bias.

🔹 2:30 PM ET – Powell’s Press Conference
This is the market mover. Powell’s tone and forward guidance will help shape expectations heading into the fall. Is the Fed preparing the market for a rate cut or holding back?

🔍 What Really Matters This Time
🎙️ Powell’s Guidance
The statement may be steady, but Powell’s press conference is where the real insight lies.

📌 Dovish Powell → If he emphasizes rising risks or suggests policy may need to adjust soon, it could boost stocks and weaken the dollar.
📌 Hawkish Powell → If he downplays recent concerns and stresses patience, expect a stronger dollar and pressure on equities.

🗳️ Dissent Watch
This meeting may also reveal growing tension within the Fed. If one or two policymakers vote for an immediate cut, it would be a clear sign that internal pressure to ease policy is building.

✅ A unanimous decision to hold rates would suggest the Fed is still in wait-and-see mode - dollar positive, equity negative.
✅ 1–2 dissenting votes in favor of a cut would hint at a pivot taking shape - dollar negative, equity positive.

The vote count might end up being the biggest surprise of the day.

🎯 How to Trade the Fed Decision
You’ve got three main strategies:

1️⃣ Proactive Trading 💥
If you believe Powell will lean dovish, you can position ahead of the release but be prepared for volatility at 2:00 PM ET. Consider scaling out before the initial headlines hit.

2️⃣ Reactive Trading 🕵️‍♂️
Wait for the statement and Powell’s initial comments. If a clear trend emerges, you can ride the momentum with a defined stop.

3️⃣ Wait for Clarity 🚫
If the market reaction is messy, there’s no harm in waiting. Often, clearer opportunities arise during the Asia or European sessions, once traders have digested the message.

What to Watch on FOMC Day
2:00 PM ET – Policy Statement
Hold + Unanimous Vote → Dollar ⬆️ / Stocks ⬇️

Hold + 1 or More Dissent for a Cut → Dollar ⬇️ / Stocks ⬆️

2:30 PM ET – Powell’s Press Conference
The tone is everything. If Powell hints at rising downside risks or suggests the Fed is nearing a policy pivot, markets will take notice—and likely move fast.

🧠 Tip: The most critical comments usually come within the first 10–15 minutes of his speech.

3:00 PM ET and Beyond – Follow-Through
By now, the market has processed the core message. Look for trend continuation or potential reversals heading into the close and into Asia.

Remember, Powell’s message and the internal dynamics of the Fed will set the tone for what could be the first rate cut in over a year.

✅ Watch for tone
✅ Watch for dissent
✅ Be ready to act—or wait for clarity

Trade smart. Trade informed. And if you’re using a prop firm, make sure it gives you the freedom to act when the real opportunity shows up

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