₦airaland Forum

Chrisbenogor:
@bidemi12
I am quite appalled at the infantile reasoning you have shown on this thread. I have asked you numerous questions and you have chosen to dodge all of them, if you cannot succinctly state why all the criteria you chose is peculiar to Nigeria alone then I am afraid you are part of the problem we have in this country. Honeric has tried to impact some sense into you but you have resigned yourself and there is really no need to waste time on people like you.
Denial my friend would be saying that there is no problem in Nigeria, we have loads of problems and they are no unique to Nigeria. Russia has a flawed electoral process, same goes for most middle eastern countries which do not even practice democracy. Even in Egypt's past election there were youtube clips of electoral officers rigging election, is that a yardstick to call a country a failed state? If it is then you have to lump all these countries into it as well. India has more slums than Nigeria, more poor people than Nigeria, in fact on National geographic's recent taboo they showed families who still feed on rat from farms to survive. Not to talk of electricity being everywhere in india, oh and they still have rebels near the pakistani border. Pray tell me why india is not a failed state?

We have problems in Nigeria no denying, but you should realise that the powers that be are happy when they hear people like you say there is no hope because they can continue looting us dry, which by the way is not only restricted to Nigeria. Honestly look around you and I can assure you that only about 2 in 100 people you know cannot eat food, how many of your friends cannot afford a telephone? take a hard honest look at it. You cannot cannot compare Nigeria to somalia sudan and chad, it is an insult to you and your generation unborn. We are way more mature than those countries.

Your children would suffer the same fate as you if you are not willing to lay down your life now to fight for that change, no matter how much you teach them not to throw candy wrappers they would still suffer at the hands of the children of those looters who would be teaching their kids the way to steal money.

Chris I admire ur patriotism and feel something has to be done .But we also have to acknowledge Nigeria is Failed state or something close to it.
you have given example of russia and middle east having flawed democratic process which is in common with Nigeria. YES i agree with you but thats it but you cant compare the standard of living ,quality of life index
India has population of 1.2 billion which is 8 times nigerian population so obiously there will be more number of slums and poor people when compared to nigeria. The important thing is the percentage of people which is below poverty line.
regarding electricity india has percaptia consuption of 50.5 watts compared to nigerias 14.6
life expectancy of india is 63.7 compared to 46.9 in case of nigeria (nigeria since it independence has acheived a increase of 1 year in life span)
India has rebel problem in form of  left wing rebels i agree and thats what iam worried about nigeria, India for 50 years upto 1997 have achieved very little growth leading to dissatisfaction and anger against the government leading to left wing violence in 5 states. Same thing can happen in nigeria too the conditions are similar

Missy85:
What a coincidence. Was thinking exactly about the value of naira 2 days ago, & concluded that its current value may be unsustainable in the short to medium term.

- Our productive capacity is too small, & even the little there is, is underutilised
-To fill in the gaps, we import on a massive scale
- These imports need to be funded hence the rapid depletion of reserves

What will certainly tip the scale profoundly in the short term (6-9mths) is the situation in the delta

Either way b4 2011 ends, I expect 165 to USD, and 280 to GBP.

The Brish economy is at its lowest ebb for 2 decades, yet the naira is 250 to GBP, at a time when crude price has remained quite robust.

What happens when international markets' confidence in the outlook for British public finance improves in 2011, as consensus estimates appear to suggest, then 280 naira to GBP is ver realistic indeed. And if oil prices fall to & remain at around USD60 for a sustained period, then, mark down 170/175 to USD, & 285/290 for GBP. Not good!

TRUE TALK

Foreign reserves by country top 10

    COUNTRY                                              BILLION DOLLARS

1  People's Republic of China                        $ 2648.3 Billion
2  Japan                                                        $ 1050.2
3  Russia                                                       $   501.1
4  Saudi arabia                                             $    410.3
 5 Taiwan                                                      $    380.5
 6 India                                                          $   300.2
 7 South korea                                               $   293.3
 8 BRAZIL                                                        $  286 .6
 9 Hongkong                                                   $  266.1
10 Switzerland                                                $  249.5

In 1991 India has foreign reserve of just 1.4 billion dollars which is sufficent for 2 weeks of importation and on verge of bankruptcy .It lead to economic reforms and rest they say is history.

So NIGERIA can turn things around, but time is running out fast where with our importation culture where we import fom toothpicks to waste bins to laundry paper we need strong foreign reserves or less naira will go down the route of zimbabwe

So how many billions are they spending ? 
This is how things will go on in next year to loot money

step 1 consultation with foreign airlines

step 2 preparation of DPR(detailed project report) this is a optional stage in nigeria .BUT for any sane countries its the most important

step 3 sanction billions or trillions (depends how much worthless naira becomes by that time)

step 4 Identify the company not on the basis of technical know how.But how much loot they can share depending on percentage of the total amount (added qualification -If u can launder money out of the country thats an added bonus)

step 5  inauguration of ramshackle facility 

  After a few years repeat the process 

oludashmi:
In addition. . .
A country known as the 5th or 6th largest oil producing but have failed refineries, fuel scarcity and queues everytime

A country that is just planning to install CCTV at airports at age 50 of independence but 96 years old

A country that still imports toothpick and matches at 50 of independence

A country that cant guarantee an hour power supply out of 24hrs for its citizens

A country where less than 500 legislatives spend 25% revenue and about 150million others spend 75%

A country that has cattles but still imports fresh milk

A country where poultries are finer than classrooms and graduates cant write about themselves

A country where you dont visit an exam centre but get the best result while those who read have to keep writing annually

A country where you have a monthly budget for mechanics cos your car will need him due to ditches (not potholes cos their sizes are bigger than the biggest pot) on the roads

A country where you walk and look back every min for security reasons

A country where robbers inform police of their upcoming operation in a particular area

A country where road is the only functioning means of transportation

A country where you spend 3hrs in traffic for a journey of 30 mins

A country where labour union is only for increase in civil servants salary while foreigners use citizens without pay and some citizens get maimed without compensation.

A country where nurses and doctors bark at patients (frustration) while patients beg with his money

A country where police rounds up innocent pple on streets and take them to prison without explanation or trial

Well, the answer is left for individuals to decide if its a failed state or successful one.

A nation which cannot conduct proper census . How do you expect others to take u seriously

NAIRA is under serious threat.
TO ALL PDP SUPPORTERS I have simple question whats has the government achieved for foreign reserves to come down from $62 billion to $33 billion dollors in 2 years 

Nigeria spending raises instability fears
By Tom Burgis in Lagos

Published: December 16 2010 17:42 | Last updated: December 16 2010 17:42

Heavy election-season spending in Nigeria risks exposing sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest oil producer to economic instability and potentially a currency shock, senior officials and bankers have warned, as fears mount over the rapid depletion of foreign reserves.

Successive governments have all but emptied Nigeria’s oil savings account, dragging down hard currency reserves and leaving the central bank ever less room to manoeuvre as it seeks to keep the naira at 150 to the dollar
.

“I am extremely concerned,” one senior official, who asked not to be named, told the Financial Times. “Fiscal management is very poor. Next year will be very, very difficult.”

Goodluck Jonathan, president, on Wednesday presented to legislators a $28bn budget for next year – an 18 per cent cutback on spending this year – which he said “heralds a period of fiscal consolidation and prudence”.

However, Nigerian budgets tend to undergo revisions and delay and checks on spending are weak



Mr Jonathan faces a fight at ruling party primaries set for January against Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president who has sought to make the dwindling reserves a campaign battleground.

Many state governors and legislators also face re-election in polls due by April.

The bulk of the budget’s spending cuts come from investment, leaving recurrent expenditure – a key plank of a political system based on patronage – to rise as a share of overall outlay.

“Between now and the second quarter, the fiscal laxity is in high gear,” said a former top economic official.

“That will put a lot of pressure on the exchange rate.” He added, however, that whoever won the election would be in a far stronger position to restrain spending.

Samir Gadio, emerging markets strategist at Standard Bank, noted that falling demand for dollar sales since a September spike as the central bank tightened monetary policy suggested that the risk of a sudden naira depreciation had declined significantly.

“To let the currency go would have a significant impact on inflation, investment and other control macroeconomic variables,” Mr Gadio said.

Yet even optimists agree that the fall in total reserves – which includes an oil savings account – from a September 2008 peak of $62bn to $33bn at the end of last month leaves the naira vulnerable to a fall in the price of oil, which accounts for 95 per cent of hard currency earnings and 80 per cent of government income.

One foreign financier echoed others by warning that, were the total reserves to fall closer to $20bn, a collapse in confidence in the naira could “spiral out of control”.

Since 2007 politicians have whittled away at the controls on the so-called oil savings or excess crude account, designed to shield the economy against cycles of boom and bust by setting aside petroleum revenues above a given oil price.

In the three years since the account peaked at $20bn, billions more should have accrued. Yet in August it contained $400m.

Fitch, the credit rating agency, changed its outlook on Nigeria’s rating from stable to negative in October and warned that “further reserve loss will exert downward pressure on the rating”.

The government is working on a sovereign wealth fund designed to restore some order to hard currency management.

But, in a country where government money is often diverted into private pockets, there are fears that campaign largesse will trump fiscal prudence.

Bismarck Rewane, chief executive of Financial Derivatives, a Lagos-based consultancy, warned: “There has to be strong leadership and less leakage: if not, there’s a high risk of devaluation.”

The central bank has been forced to draw down the reserves further to soak up naira pumped into the economy by government.

Seeking to counter inflation and protect the currency, it has also begun to increase interest rates.

However, higher rates risk choking off the campaign to foster lending to non-oil businesses launched by Lamido Sanusi, the reformist governor.

“If the government continues to monetise oil revenues at a high rate, the central bank will be faced with three very difficult choices,” said Scott Rogers, International Monetary Fund mission chief in Nigeria, before the budget speech.

“Continue to lose reserves, continue to raise interest rates to reduce demand for foreign ex-change, or let the currency depreciate.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b99cea72-0939-11e0-ada6-00144feabdc0,Authorised=false.html?_i_location=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ft.com%2Fcms%2Fs%2F0%2Fb99cea72-0939-11e0-ada6-00144feabdc0.html&_i_referer=#axzz18OQr70vz