₦airaland Forum

Dangote, thank you and more progress to your establishments.

obilokechukwu:
today class i am going to talk about type of correction. this is where your eyes need to channel into.
types of correction
1 reveser correction
2 continution correction
3 expansion correction
4 ascending correction
5 descending correction
reveser correction happen when there is long move of impose move or after the move of impose in any of the time frame by doing top
down analysis. when you see impose then correction will talk place after impose move. e.g watch the chart below.
continution correction happen when impose move has talk place, then the next to it is continution correction. it happen inform of
resistant and support at the same time or when you put your horizontal ruler at resistance and the same time you put your horizontal
ruler at support level. this tell you that the market is in continutional correction phase. that is after impose move.
ascending, reveser, desending want to look like or characterise the same way but reveser correction is differ. next class i will show you
them difference. just see this current chart below it.

Guy, na elliotwave you dey analyse like this? Come learn work from the best wave analyst in the world.

Impulse or impulsive, not impose

Corrective move

Reversal

Continuation.

You tried sha but you're just starting because wave analysis deep gan; that's why many find it difficult.

Btcee should sell to 31280 SL 36030.
Price: 35062

Immortal99:
you just de yan theory....

ur eye go clear when e go reach N1,500

intervention ko equilibrium ni ..

your economy no produce enough export to reduce the margin when fuel which is the major industry energy source in a country like this was cheap.....it is when the fuel is now x2 x3...you want to do equilibrium and intervention

Ok o! Make we dey watch.

Immortal99:
the difference between BOJ,BOE,RBA and your CBN governor is that .... before RBA made that statement..... background team has calculated a lot of things concerning BOT balance of trade and other currency value metrics..... while your CBN governor fit be from Hilton e leave im babe rush come read wetin im secretary type for am ....

in fact im sure that na 1700 the secretary type.... e no see am well

The Economy Minister who said 700 isn't a local champion! Above 700, there would be intervention; far below 700, there'd be; equilibrium point, and that's the modus operandi of central banking.

As Nigeria embarks on floating exchange rate regime, let's be in the know about the two types of exchange rates; how they're determined; the factors that affect them; which is adopted by the developed and developing countries, etc.

International currency exchange rates display how much one unit of a currency can be exchanged for another currency. Currency exchange rates can be floating, in which case they change continually based on a multitude of factors, or they can be pegged (or fixed) to another currency, in which case they still float, but they move in tandem with the currency to which they are pegged.

Knowing the value of a home currency in relation to different foreign currencies helps investors to analyze assets priced in foreign dollars. For example, for a U.S. investor, knowing the dollar to euro exchange rate is valuable when selecting European investments. A declining U.S. dollar could increase the value of foreign investments just as an increasing U.S. dollar value could hurt the value of your foreign investments.


KEY TAKEAWAYS
Fixed exchange rate regimes are set to a pre-established peg with another currency or basket of currencies.

A floating exchange rate is one that is determined by supply and demand on the open market as well as macro factors.

A floating exchange rate doesn't mean countries don't try to intervene and manipulate their currency's price, since governments and central banks regularly attempt to keep their currency price favorable for international trade.

Floating exchange rates are the most common and became popular after the failure of the gold standard and the Bretton Woods agreement.

1
Floating vs. Fixed Exchange Rates

Currency prices can be determined in two main ways: a floating rate or a fixed rate. A floating rate is determined by the open market through supply and demand on global currency markets. Therefore, if the demand for the currency is high, the value will increase.


If demand is low, this will drive that currency price lower. Of course, several technical and fundamental factors will determine what people perceive as a fair exchange rate and alter their supply and demand accordingly.


The currencies of most of the world's major economies were allowed to float freely following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system between 1968 and 1973. Therefore, most exchange rates are not set but are determined by ongoing trading activity in the world's currency markets.
1


Factors That Influence Exchange Rates
Floating Rates
Floating rates are determined by the market forces of supply and demand. How much demand there is in relation to the supply of a currency will determine that currency's value in relation to another currency.

For example, if the demand for U.S. dollars by Europeans increases, the supply-demand relationship will cause an increase in the price of the U.S. dollar in relation to the euro.

There are countless geopolitical and economic announcements that affect the exchange rates between two countries, but a few of the most common include interest rate changes, unemployment rates, inflation reports, gross domestic product numbers, manufacturing data, and commodities.

Fixed Rates
A fixed or pegged rate is determined by the government through its central bank. The rate is set against another major world currency (such as the U.S. dollar, euro, or yen). To maintain its exchange rate, the government will buy and sell its own currency against the currency to which it is pegged.


Short-term moves in a floating exchange rate currency reflect speculation, rumors, disasters, and everyday supply and demand for the currency. If supply outstrips demand, then that currency will fall, and if demand outstrips supply, that currency will rise.

The most valuable currency in the world is the Kuwaiti Dinar (KWD).

2

Extreme short-term moves can result in intervention by central banks, even in a floating rate environment. Because of this, while most major global currencies are considered floating, central banks and governments may step in if a nation's currency becomes too high or too low.

A currency that is too high or too low could affect the nation's economy negatively, affecting trade and the ability to pay debts. The government or central bank will attempt to implement measures to move their currency to a more favorable price.


Macro Factors
More macro factors also affect exchange rates. The "Law of One Price" dictates that in a world of international trade, the price of a good in one country should equal the price in another. This is called purchasing price parity (PPP).

If prices get out of whack, the interest rates in a country will shift—or else the exchange rate will change between currencies. Of course, reality doesn't always follow economic theory, and due to several mitigating factors, the law of one price does not often hold in practice. Still, interest rates and relative prices will influence exchange rates.


Another macro factor is the geopolitical risk and the stability of a country's government. If the government is not stable, the currency in that country is likely to fall in value relative to more developed, stable nations.

3

Forex and Commodities
Generally, the more dependent a country is on a primary domestic industry, the stronger the correlation between the national currency and the industry's commodity prices.

There is no uniform rule for determining what commodities a given currency will be correlated with and how strong that correlation will be; however, some currencies provide good examples of commodity-forex relationships.


Consider that the Canadian dollar is positively correlated to the price of oil. Therefore, as the price of oil goes up, the Canadian dollar tends to appreciate against other major currencies. This is because Canada is a net oil exporter; when oil prices are high, Canada tends to reap greater revenues from its oil exports giving the Canadian dollar a boost on the foreign exchange market.

4

Another good example is the Australian dollar, which is positively correlated with gold. Because Australia is one of the world's biggest gold producers, its dollar tends to move in unison with price changes in gold bullion. Thus, when gold prices rise significantly, the Australian dollar will also be expected to appreciate against other major currencies.

5

Maintaining Rates
Some countries may decide to use a pegged exchange rate that is set and maintained artificially by the government. This rate will not fluctuate intraday and may be reset on particular dates known as revaluation dates.

Governments of emerging market countries often do this to create stability in the value of their currencies. To keep the pegged foreign exchange rate stable, the government of the country must hold large reserves of the currency to which its currency is pegged to control changes in supply and demand.


Where Can I Find Foreign Exchange Rates?

Foreign exchange rates are available on a variety of websites online. These sites display the numerical relationships between each currency. Many of these sites also have currency converters, showing how much of a certain currency equals another currency. One of the most popular foreign exchange rate sites is XE.com.

What Are Exchange Rates Based on?

Exchange rates for floating currencies are based on the supply and demand of one currency versus another. The exchange rates between two currencies shift as the supply and demand for each change. For fixed currencies, the exchange rate is based on a peg to another currency and changes in accordance as the value of that currency changes.


What Factors Affect Foreign Exchange Rates?

Factors that affect foreign exchange rates include the political climate of a country, inflation, public debt, GDP, confidence, central bank/government intervention, and the balance of trade.


The Bottom Line

Currency prices are determined in two ways: fixed rates and floating rates. Fixed rates are pegged to a currency while floating rates move freely with market demand. Nations attempt to manipulate their currencies so that they remain strong and so that the demand for their currency is high in foreign exchange markets.

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/forex/how-forex-exchange-rates-set.asp



Having read this article, I would say floating exchange rate policy is better.

Also, either fixed or floating, apex banks around the world do intervene to tackle macroeconomic challenges like unemployment, inflation, deflation, recession etc.

Another observation is that most developed countries adopt floating while many developing countries (except India, China, South Africa, Mexico and some others) adopt fixed exchange rate system

Floating rates policy doesn't mean there wouldn't be interventions by the CBN from time to time as it's done worldwide by apex banks.

Fundamental:

Wale Edun has said that the fair value of USDNGN is 700.

Technical:

The price is expected to drop below 569, as indicated in the chart attached, and any correction should peak below 700 until change of policy by the government.

Nigeria's CBN governor will be as powerful as BOJ's, BOE's, etc that if he says something, the Naira reacts heavily to it.

I remember when RBA Governor said that the fair value of Aussie shouldn't be above 8500, since then price hasn't surpassed that level; highest was 8134.

Nigeria's minister of Economy has said that the fair value of USDNGN is N700! With this statement, expect price to drop significantly below 700 to around 500; any correction afterwards should cap below the fair value as said by the Minister.

A drop below the line is expected.

Fugazy2023:
I'm using Exness

Ok, thanks for the reply!

Fugazy2023:
Olodo. Go school you no go. Just making noise on SM and constituting nuisance.
Look at the chart below. Hope you can read or look for someone educated to interpret for you. I took the screenshot at past 6 this morning. Looking now, it has further crashed. Bid and ask price is now 996.80 and 968.08 respectively. Olodo

Sbeg, which broker be this? I wan
do analysis.

Fibonacci88:
Stop deceiving gullible minions. I am very happy with the strengthening of the naira if only it will bring down the prices of goods. Why are u comparing black market rate to IE window rate. U quoted the highest black market rate ever of N1300 with the current IE window rate just to score cheap political point. The current black market rate is 985 on binance as I type. Propaganda won't help.

Now, extremely bearish!

I dey follow US30 go Niger Delta! Make e no punish me again o.

Close the position, you lazy speculator!

If you want to trade Forex, speculate with Eurusd, gbpusd, uscad, uschf; not with your local currency.

Stuuupid saboteurs must lose money.

Good news! Prices of goods should start falling if it stays down. Importers and consumers should be happy with this fall.

Seun, Dominique, nfpmod

tommy589:
Let banks pay naira for over the counter diasporan remittances. CBN should work sharing modalities with banks on the generated Forex

Seconded! Say no to Aboki and Biinance P2P.

Diaspora remittances are highly underrated! I don't know why. The money from abroad is too huge to ignore. $20b annually no be small money.

As at October 2023.

Foreign Exchange Reserves also called Forex reserves, are, in a strict sense, only foreign-currency deposits held by nationals and monetary authorities. However, in popular usage and in the list below, it also includes gold reserves, special drawing rights (SDRs) and IMF reserve position because this total figure, which is usually more accurately termed as official reserves or international reserves or official international reserves, is more readily available and also arguably more meaningful.[citation needed]

These foreign-currency deposits are the financial assets of the central banks and monetary authorities that are held in different reserve currencies (e.g. the U.S. Dollar, the Euro, the Japanese Yen, the Pound Sterling, and the Chinese Yuan) and which are used to back its liabilities (e.g. the local currency issued and the various bank reserves deposited with the Central bank by the government or financial institutions). Before the end of the gold standard, gold was the preferred reserve currency. Some nations are converting foreign-exchange reserves into sovereign wealth funds, which can rival foreign-exchange reserves in size.[citation needed]

The list below is mostly based on the latest available IMF data, and while most nations report in U.S. dollars, a few nations in Eastern Europe report solely in Euros and some others report in their respective currencies. And since all the figures below are in U.S dollar equivalents, exchange rate fluctuations can have a significant impact on these figures.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_foreign-exchange_reserves

Gajagojo:
It is better you stay silent

Foreign reserves are not savings as many of you ignorantly believe and they are not "spent"

It is simply beyond your brain powers
When you see the word RESERVES
You ignorantly think they are savings that can be spent

That is not the case

Once again just admit you do not understand the issues and be silent

When the CBN settles Forex obligations it is exchanging forex for Naira and NOT SPENDING it

The Naira is simply a debt of the CBN and foreign investors are holding NAira set at a certain exchange rate contract.

That is why it is called BACKLOG. People have a contract with the CBN to take back its Naira
at a fixed rate . The CBN does not have the dollars to take back its Naira and that is why the Naira is crashing.The reserves are CBN ASSETS while the Naira is a CBN LIABILITY
Th fear is foreign reserves cannot cover all the naira that the CBN has been printing the longer it takes to settle the higher the exchange rate

Thank you for the explanation! You really understand the economy of Forex.

Thank God, we now have a technocrat as a minister of economy.

N500/$ wouldn't be a bad idea! It's good for price stability.

Geovanni412:
Where did you get the statistic that minimum wage earner in Canada saves up to $500 a month from?

According to a survey conducted by CPA Canada, 25% of Canadians can't come up with $500 even if it is an emergency...


So, once again, where did you get your info about minimum wage earners saving $500 every month?

Some of us have friends in Canada that just graduated from school that wouldn't mind saving that type of money per month.

Link:
https://www.cpacanada.ca/en/the-cpa-profession/about-cpa-canada/media-centre/2022/august/thriving-or-surviving-cpa-canada-study-on-canadian-finances

Americans and Canadians live on debts, they hardly save! It's good for any economy because manufacturers would enjoy patronage and they in turn employ more hands.

Where GU wan go after BOE? For me, na Arewa.

This historical data shows the BOJ is preparing to raise rates; hence a sharp drop for UJ.

This stoooopid Egun boy self!

GabsonFX2:
Target met, profits topped up!!!

If you saw what I posted yesterday about historical event and what I would not like to see......mhen, I saw it ooo - I was just taming US30 up and down, I collect loss well well until 1hr ago where US30 fell into my palm, and I eventually killed it. (attached)

I never sleep since, cos of this day trading - I did this only today and only just because I aimed at a particular % before those guys hit withdraw button. Never ever in my life would I day trade again, never. This one no be life at all.

My trade stops today, no trading tmao, until Wednesday.........

Day-trading na torture! I have been holding a UJ position for two weeks now; it has gone 120 pips against me and back in profit. But with an account I day-trade, I don collect wotowoto taya.

DXY may drop.

samfelly:
An hour ago, here, it apeared as if it's going to rain. In short, the weather was cloudy and washed clothes where brought in from the line outside, cause precipitation seems certain. But, to my amazement, everywhere suddenly cleared up. And the sunshine that followed this little rainy (intended) drama would cause a mad man to tell another mad man that the sun can cause one to mad

I am here comparing trading with nature. Yesterday, it seems gold was about to sell (daily candle appeared to), but before you know it, it started buying, real hard; thereby closing the weekly candle bullish. It was intriguing observing that

Trading sweet sha, just like nature

Everything revolves round nature! Fibonacci theory confirms this.

You're promoting Maven because of giveaways to members only; but your referral link is always seen.

Dey play! You think say you wise?

Maven na wayo propfirm! Stay off them. FTMO and Fundednext iare okay!

Elliotwaveforec:
SL raised to 32345

SL hit!

Elliotwaveforec:
Longing US30 SL 500 pips

SL raised to 32345

Beneficiaries of diaspora remittances are very greedy! Instead of them to cash their remittances at the bank, they go to Aboki, Biinance etc.

If I were in the government, I would make sure every foreign remittance passes through the banking system and stiff penalty for beneficiaries who go against the rule.

Good job by the FG and CBN! No more dual exchange rates.

Kill parallel market now.
stop lazy arbitrageurs