₦airaland Forum

To the detriment of governance.

Of course APC factions in the ADC and PDP led by Wike will oppose it.

If it were up to me.....the military will take over. This is not democracy.......people like Wike, Tinumbu, Akpabio, Rochas Okorocha, Orji Uzor Kalu, Ibori, Yahaya Bello, etc will be spending spending the rest of their lives where they belong.

Nigeria is an unfortunate event. Break the country up and allow serious people to build their country while those who want to remain in the dark ages can do so.

Remaining as one country is a huge disservice to humanity.

nairalanda1:
LOL...because we are dependent on oil.

I am prefacing my post by saying that I am not a tinubu supporter, and infact I have lost hope in all our politicans

Nigerian government spending is largely dependent on oil revenue...it is even better than 1996 when it was 97%, but it is still above 80%. The problem is, for oil revenue to be sufficent, the oil price has to be above a certain limit...not just the budget benchmark, but also above our fiscal breakeven

For example, last year, our benchmark for the budget was 75 dollars. Last year. From the last week of January until this Iran debacle, oil was below 70 dollars a barrel...except for a few weeks in June. Our fiscal breakeven then was 150 dollars per barrel.

So, in order to fund the budget, we had to borrow, and to borrow and to borrow.

Throw in the fact that our oil revenue since 2014 has been very low because oil prices have not been favoring us at all...until too recently, and even now (as you will soon see) the price increase may not favor us now.

The only time, in my memnory when we did not borrow was in 2008, when oil was above 140 dollars per barrel for several months. That was the year many ministries had money left over at year's end...and Yaradua was telling them to return it, which many did bitterly...lol. (Even one of my relatives who was one of those civil servants that really believed that stealing was corruption was criticising Yaradua for being too strict..hahaha).

This was outlined in this article published in 2004...

The oil windfall may also lead to movement of the factors of production in the economy. For instance, capital and labor (and land) may shift from the non-oil export sector to the oil sector (in order to maintain or increase reserves and production) and the non-tradable goods sector (to take advantage of the growing domestic demand). This explains why the increase in oil prices and the subsequent oil revenue windfall in many oil-exporting countries have tended to depress their non-oil export sector while at the same time generating a boom in both the oil and the non-tradable goods sectors. With capital and labor shifting from the non-oil export sector to the oil-sector and non-traded goods sector, firms in the non-oil export sector are forced to either close down or reduce their scale of operation. The boom in the oil and non-traded goods sector increases the demand for imported goods. This may not be a problem in the short-term so long as the country has enough foreign exchange to pay for the imports. The depression in the non-oil export sector and the boom in the other two sectors have medium to long term implications for the economy because the oil windfall will not be permanent given the volatility, unpredictability and exhaustibility of crude oil. For instance, if there is a decline in oil prices and oil revenue, the lagging and collapsing non-oil export sector will not be able to compensate for the drop in oil revenue while domestic demand for the non-traded goods and imports remain sticky. Consequently, the country will be forced to borrow from the international financial market to compensate for the decline in oil revenue. Over time, external debts will increase and so will the debt service obligations. Even when oil prices go up later and there is another round of oil windfall, it is difficult to correct the earlier damage or distortions created by the initial or previous oil windfall. In some cases, the oil exporting country may be forced to adopt some form of structural adjustment program (SAP) to correct such distortions or imbalances. Some of these SAPs are painful and may increase the prevalence, depth and severity of poverty

SAUCE

If you read above, you will see why we are not benefitting or going to benefit from high oil revneue. It also explains partly where the oil windfall of 1991 went.

When oil prices are high, we live well, when they fall,we borrow to live well.

INFACT , based on the above, subsidy removal won't have made things better...because at the end of the day, overall oil revenue is still TOO TOO LOW. What subsidy removal did was to make more money available for spending by the government.

It's the same idea behind the attempts to remove subsidy, or the partial subsidy removals in 2012, and many times before. The only way not to borrow is to do the Abacha style of govenrment...tight fiscal controls, which reduce spending, but make life even more and more harder and harder and harder.

Ultimately, Nigeria needs to diversify its economy. No ifs, no buts, no anything. This is where tinubu, buhari and many of our past leaders have failed.

More than anything, this country needs to break up.......it will never work like this. The earlier it's done the better.

Anything else is just papering over the main issue.

We are not one. Never was. Never will be.

Too many cooks spoil the broth. Lots of strange bedfellows...... incompatible politicians will begin their journey to self destruction.

With all the governors and senators in their rank, the APC is still jittery.

The APC is full of voyeux. They get satisfaction and gratification by peeping and spying on other people.

monex:
humanity connotes something collective of all humans i.e. the human race. This is in contrast to various societies and environments that have sprung up. Morality in Afghanistan is different from Morality in Sweden.

Thank you. And that's my point exactly....it is in the collective.

Sometimes we need to also do some introspection.

Our own too much sef. The aggression, the naivety, the ignorance..... that's why it's always us.

Why they choose to commot for rain na?

And why the woman in 4 no gree open umbrella?

Is the umbrella faulty ni?

monex:
another fallacy. it isnt the humanity in you but your society and environment that defines your morality. There are folks who think killing gay people is wrong while some others think gay acts are not amoral and then others say it is wrong but does not deserve capital punishment.

all three above couldnt have gotten different morality from their humanity.

I agree to an extent with you. Have you considered that humanity in the context could actually mean environment?

Better still, kindly define "humanity".

Conscience. We all have one and it's inbuilt.

No to another Fulani when the south have not taken their eight years.....

Tafawa Balewa
Murtala Mohammed
Shehu Shagari
Mohammadu Buhari
Yar Adua
Mohammadu Buhari again

These guys are in the minority in the North yet almost all the governors, almost all.the emirs in the north are Fulanis.

Atiku should go and sit down until it's the North's turn.

First it is crap. Secondly all souls are lost.

zoedew:
Osinbajo or Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala if we are serious about good governance in Nigeria.Those other fellows are all tarred and stained with corruption and associated with corruption and they should step aside if they truly love Nigeria and are not power mongers desperate to have the Presidency for selfish reasons!

Or Adebayo, the African Development Bank man.

If they can actually stick to this arrangement then Tinumbu is as good as gone.

Will Akpabio or any of the governors say NO if they were offered same?

Use your head.

Freestuffng, Helinues, etc food don done. Come and chop.....

dominique:
All that millions of dollars down the drain

Down which drain?

It is in the bank account of government officials. Stolen. They budget but corner the money without releasing a dime for the project.

Is anything being done about it? That's the million dollar question......we are all supposed to be chanting on your mandate....city boy this city boy that....

The government actually thinks this is a joke...... insecurity has become the new normal and no one is even coughing...

Imagine for once that Jonathan was president right now.....

What happened to all the revenue generated from Seaports, oil, taxes, etc? Or is Akpabio's daughter swallowing all of them?

This government has not told us what's gwan.

Reference:
I mean. No Nigerian that passed through a half decent grade school will not have come across his works.

I absolutely hated English Literature as a subject and absolutely abhor Contemporary literature but I had to pass.

You are correct.

Namaster:
Nigerians who HATE Nigerians will read this NONSENSE and use it to justify their HATE for their country.

Meanwhile, Nigerian Authors who write in English have set the BENCHMARK for literature in Africa and the World.

EVERYBODY knows China Achebe.
EVERYBODY knows Wole Soyinka.
EVERYBODY knows Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie.

NOBODY can name ONE author from Kenya without first searching GOOGLE.

There are NIGERIANS who speak with BRITISH ACCENTS without having step out of Nigeria.

While some people will lay ALL the blame at the feet of Nigerian Politicians, Ruto SHARES in the blame.

People in Leadership positions should know BETTER than to make STEWPID generalisations.

Ngugi Wa Thiongo who used to be known as James Ngugi was a Kenyan writer who authored Weep not, Child. I didn't need google to get that.....

Hez143:
make the good Lord bless me too, make I join the list!

That's why you won't join it. You are waiting for a nonexistent good Lord to bless you.

None of those guys got there because some fairy blessed them.

How old are you? Maybe you should wait for Santa Claus.

Hausas are victims of Fulani terrorism. Imagine all the emirs being Fulani in Hausaland. That's unfair.

Vision101:
If Nigeria wants opposition, ADC definitely is not the one. Mark my words: if they win the party will scatter and if they lose the party will equally scatter. There is nothing permanent about ADC. Hurriedly put up to wrestle presidency from Tinubu. In accounting we call it joint venture. At the conclusion of the transaction everyone will go his way.

The only reason they are in crisis is Tinumbu. Tinumbu and his overzealous gang are actively engaged in destabilizing other parties.

If ADC, for whatever reason, wins the presidency then they'd turn out stronger with defections and presidential might. It's the sad story of Nigerian politics.

Same strategy again. Intimidation. Threats.

If Tinumbu is actually doing fine then why the stress? Upon his cluelessness people are being threatened......

I don't like this type of democracy.

Religion is gradually losing influence....which is quite good.

Trump is putting his money where his mouth is...... y'all should try and do the same.

Gotocourt:
ADC needs to fix the house 🤷🏿.

Tinumbu's strategy is obviously to keep all opposition parties in disarray.......

The only reason Tinumbu should be scared is because of his woeful performance at every level.

With Tinumbu corruption will swallow Nigeria.

fyzaila:
This Ned sef, is it his inheritance? he has been there for God knows how long. Make him give another person chance now haba

But Okowa was there before him. And Okowa was governor for eight years.

The rate of borrowing is unbelievable, moreso with subsidy gone.

At this rate by the time Tinumbu does a second tenure Nigeria will probably be sunk in debt.

We are not even seeing or feeling where the whole money is going.

Curses are mere words....they are of no effect.

So, go away with your crocodile tears.