₦airaland Forum

YESpParticipant:
Still valid!

NFA

This played out perfectly.

Concise and accurate.

Cheers 🍻

Iskalamong!

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Alexas58:
Osakpolo says keep buying

Context is everything.

In bear markets, there are usually pullbacks (short lived rallies).

If you time your buys correctly and take your profit instead of holding for too long, you can make profit buying (taking long positions) in a bear market.

Caveat, shorts are recommended in bears and long in bulls.

Also, it is important to note that even in a bear market, if you dont time your short selling right, you could be at the losing end and vice versa in bull markets.

Elsewhere, BTC is testing 2021 resistance level which may act as support in 2026. We can see how price reacted to the level in 2024 (strong resistance).

My guess is that a lot of position traders are queuing around (or slightly below) that level to buy. And since it is re-testing this level for the first time since it broke out, the buyers may win.

All in all, watching how bitcoin will react at this level is crucial for positioning (for a long or a short). Kindly see attached monthly screenshot of BTC.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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seanwilliam:
Actually , he got that correctly, btc quickly reversed from 73k and hit 78k.. if anyone took short position as at the time he posted it, the person is probably squeezed !


Secondly, virtually all crypto analysts fall into category of “if it doesn’t go up, it’ll go down” forget fancy language.
Pls let’s give people their flowers if they get/do things correctly o

In financial markets, we may recognise two types of participants. The long-term and short-term participants.

The former looks for fundamentals and try to predict and hold for a long time for the prediction to happen. Example is buying the S&P index ETF for the longterm or buying btc and holding for long term (HODL).

On the contrary, the latter (short term participants or traders) should be reactive. This is the case of buy the rally and short the dip. That is, these participants mainly follow the trend. If the market is bullish, they buy and seek buying opportunities and they exit quickly (usually anywhere from a few months to a few seconds) and vice versa.

For the analysts in the first school of thought, for bullish expectation, they see every dip as an opportunity to buy.

For the analysts in the second category, if they have a bullish expectation (or position) and market turns bearish, they stop loss or take profit, become bearish in their sentiment and start looking for short selling opportunities.

Thus, if these analysts tell you that bitcoin is bullish in the morning and market turns bearish in the afternoon and sustained, they change their words and tell you bitcoin is now bearish and will advise shorting.



I hope you get it

Cheers 🍻

Iskalamong!
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mikeapollo:
But the repurchased shares are still meant to be redistributed to shareholders so it should not reduce the outstanding shares, unless they want to give out cash instead of shares or they are deliberating delaying the redistribution to make the EPS look better
Infact 1.2b if the 4.18b shares have been distributed already.

I suspect they want to make the EPS look better. This will make the share price look cheap. It will also justify subsequent rallies on the stock.

Imagine a stock with an EPS of N30 trading at N40. That’s the story they are painting.

Iskalamong!

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pluto09:
Which one is repurchase treasury shares?

Please see the message below:

ositadima1: Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion.

Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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pluto09:
eps was calculated using 8.152b instead of 12b.
Any idea how they arrived at this?
What is their output of crude oil (boe) now?

They repurchased treasury shares. This reduced their shares outstanding.

Iskalamong!

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emmanuelewumi:
That will create additional 60 billion shares if N3 Trillion debt is converted to equity

True.

That will make their total shares outstanding c.68 billion

Assuming they save 10% in interest expense, that is N300 billion savings. That should make their profit N540 billion.

Adjusting for that in their EPS, the EPS should be approximately N7.94

Using share price of N40 to calculate PE ratio, their PE ratio should be around 5x at the moment. This changes the cheapness narrative reasonably (compared to the current PE ratio below 1.5x).

With top line growth and margin improvements, PE multiple could rise between 8x to 10x of present EPS (this is fair for Oil and Gas players). That’s a potential c. 40% to c.100% upside from current price levels (or N56 to N80 in share price terms).

In a nutshell, the stock remains very cheap but not as cheap as one would think at first glance using PE multiples alone.

At this rate, I won’t be diving deeper into the financials. I don’t think I’ll dive any deeper than we have.

Thank you all for your insights.

It has been an educative session today.

More of it please.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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ositadima1:
A quick look at Oando PLC’s FY2025 results. The company reported profit of approximately ₦241 billion, only about ₦50 billion, roughly 20%, was attributable to core operating activities. The bulk of earnings came from non-operational sources such as impairment reversals, finance income, and FX or tax-related adjustments, all of which are volatile and mostly non-recurring.

Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion. Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

To maintain a clean balance sheet, one option is to increase operating profit by more than fourfold, or alternatively to restructure the capital structure by converting debt into equity. The first is difficult but potentially achievable if the company can significantly reduce operating expenses. The second is easier to execute and could benefit investors over the long term, as an annual interest burden of around ₦200 billion is substantial to sustain.

Their profit grew by c.10% but EPS grew substantially due to a reduction (about a third) in the group’s outstanding shares.

I guess this treasury shares you mentioned is the reason for this.

I suspect they want to keep their EPS high (by extension, their share price). Because that’s the direct consequence.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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debeey87:
This result needs a lot of explaining. Not very easy understanding the gbelo gbebo with the numbers

True.

Their outstanding shares reduced by about a third.

I wonder the reason for this.

That is why their EPS jumped to N30.

Update:
They repurchased treasury shares. This is the reason.

Iskalamong!

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conecnd:
Oando group (Consolidated) Performance
- Revenue vs. Cost of Sales
- Revenue dropped from ₦4.09 trillion (2024) to ₦3.21 trillion (2025).
- Cost of sales was almost equal to revenue, leaving only a slim gross profit of ₦27.7 billion in 2025 (vs. ₦155.9 billion in 2024).
- This shows the core trading operations were under heavy margin pressure.

- Key Profit Drivers in 2025
- Reversal of impairment on financial assets: ₦573 billion gain (vs. a ₦76 billion loss in 2024).
- Finance income: ₦381 billion (huge jump from ₦47 billion in 2024).
- Tax credits: ₦226 billion (vs. ₦163 billion tax expense in 2024).

- Bottom line
- Net profit: ₦241 billion in 2025 (slightly higher than ₦220 billion in 2024).
- The profit was not from core oil trading but mainly from accounting reversals, financial asset recoveries, and tax credits.

Thanks for this

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emmanuelewumi:
Assuming interest rates on the N3 Trillion debt is at 15% which is rare

That will be N450 billion on interest payments alone, when will they pay down the principal amount?


I think creditors should convert their loans to equity, that will give breathing space to Oando

That is exactly what the company is working on.

The announcement was made last year.

They are looking at a conversion price of N50 per share

Iskalamong!

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emmanuelewumi:
I will write about the negative vibes others can write about the positive vibes of Oando


Shareholders fund is negative N553 billion

Debt is N3 Trillion

Finance cost is N59 billion

Working Capital is negative N3.2 Trillion

Net operating cash flow is negative N147 billion

Free Cash Flow is negative N259 billion.

Nice perspective.

This explains the skeptism of the market

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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cocolacec:
OANDO

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45938_OANDO_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2026.pdf

Revenue dropped likely due to decline in downstream sales.

Marginal growth in profit (c.10%)

They reported EPS of c.N30 and the stock is trading at N40.

Looking like it’s still the cheapest (or at least one of the cheapest stock) on the Nigerian exchange.

Negative shareholder funds, high debt and no dividend are potential negatives keeping share price low.

I will take a better look at the numbers later.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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jonnysessy:
See result everywhere, how will man check all these result to know the ones that passed their exams and the ones that failed. I guess i will have to concentrate on my dividend stocks first before i check on all other ones in my portfolio. I believe every company want to meet up with the end of the month deadline

That's how earnings seasons are. To simplify things, you can check in this order :
1. Companies in your portfolio
2. Companies not in your portfolio but on your watchlist
3. Companies that are not 1 or 2 but are popular or big
4. Companies that people are recommending (physical, online,NSEMPA e.t.c.)
5. Others can follow

Additional Tip
To scan companies that you're not familiar with, you can save time checking their income statement first. If its a loss or no significant growth, skip till you get one in profit and with a significant revenue growth and profit growth.

In addition, you may open a tab on trading view to quickly view the prices of the good stocks and compare with their EPS (in the financials) for a quick valuation.

On the deadline for result release, I think they have until March. I stand corrected though.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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emmanuelewumi:
If you know you know .


Imagine buying a stock for N2.20k on 30th January 2021 and you will earn a dividend of N8.30k from the stock by May or June 2026

These kinds of opportunities are becoming harder to get these days.

I remember GTCO dropping to N16.80 or so in 2022. For someone who bought then, the capital appreciation as well as cumulative dividends received would be massive. All through these periods, GTCO paid both interim and final dividend. Just market mispricing.

What makes your NAHCO play more attrative is the combination of value and rapid company growth.

Cheers

Iskalamong!

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ogawisdom:
That will make a wonderful dividend growth for wealth building. Dividend growing companies are the real wealth builders.

The stock has been that way for long.

Its Nigeria's Nvidia in terms of returns and momentum.

When you consider the dividend payout, dividend yield and dividend growth, its even better.

The stock is growing rapidly in performance, dividend and share price.

Now people are getting acquainted with the stock judging by its current price.

In previous years, it would be trading at N80 by now and when dividend (and result) is announced, it will go past the N100 mark. This makes it not only good for holding for the long haul but also for very easy, almost risk free trading.

But now, it is already trading at N120 (more than 10x of the expected dividend).

I think Nigerian investors are becoming more savvy. Media outlets like Nairametrics e.t.c. may be one of the reasons for this.

There used to be so many mispricings on the NGX especially close to earnings season (especially for the tier one high dividend paying banks).

Iskalamong!

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nosa2:
Please all this my talk of market crash is extremely premature oh!

Nigerian economy is just resuming growth. Even though it seems prices have risen, earnings have risen to justify the new prices. Stanbic for example released result today and despite the recent run up in prices the stock is trading with a PE of less than 5! That stock could easily touch N200 and still be buy.

So even though I believe we would end up in a bubble I don't think we would get there for another 5-7 years.

I understand you completely.

I didn't misquote you. I believe your advice was to always invest/trade with caution. Avoid FOMO and doing proper due diligence when investing.

I only provided additional insights in response to the person I quoted.

Iskalamong!

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pluto09:
The bear will surely come but nobody can actually predict when it will happen.
I personally think the market dynamics have moved beyond what we had in 2008 and the possibility of having a major crash in the near future is a very slim one.

Mathematically speaking, the probability of a major market crash is always low.

But because it can and may happen, smart investors (individuals or institutions) must have a plan for it so that they are not wiped out by it.

This is the reason for risk management: traders using stop losses, position sizing, limiting leverage and even insurance in general (beyond financial markets).

Stock markets go up over the long term. If there is zero risk of a correction or a market crash, then there will be no need for stop losses. Just buy with as much leverage as possible and become as wealthy as one can be.

Sadly, this is not the case. Thus, risk must be managed.

Cheers bro!

Iskalamong

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awesomeJ:
Bitcoin /USD is down 6.7%
USd / naira is down 2%

Double wahala for people that bought Bitcoin with naira.

Even the legendary gold dipped today. Down c.3%

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awesomeJ:
For most companies, their fx exposures are net liabilities. So this strengthening will translate into gains. Although this won't materialize until end Q1.

Am I missing your point though?

What I see is every company that recorded FX gains in 2025 did so on naira strengthening, more strengthening thus only translates into more gains for them.

PZ for instance will might have to value their FX Obligations below 1350 next month. Another N70 gains for them.

Your point is clear but I think you missed his.

While many manufacturing companies, FMCGs, consumer goods and even telcos bellwethers lost due to the falling naira, the banks on their other hand, (and a few other companies) had currency revaluation gains.

He is asking if this recovery in the naira will reverse those previously booked revaluation gains of banks.

I hope it’s clear now.

Cheers

Iskalamong

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ManAdii:
Thanks for your recommendations bro. But you see that Access and Oando eh. Hmmm

Funnily enough, among the popular and solid stocks, those two seem to be the cheapest at the moment. Oando, very cheap. Access on the other hand is worth the risk for short term dividend play at N20.

In my opinion, market is in a hold state for those that want to JIJO. That is, if you’re in, you may wait to see if you can get a better exit price. If you’re out, you may wait to see if you can get a better bargain. Most stocks are around their fair value unless we see a shocker in results released or dividends declared.

However, those two stocks seem to be the potential plays for now. Oando at c.N40 and Access at c.N20.

Mind you, I excluded illiquid, very small cap and some other stocks (that rallies without revenue or operational evidence ) in my consideration.

It would be nice to hear the opinions of the house as well.

Cheers

Iskalamong!

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Gokoyer0:
Hi guys,
Who can give me upto 20 stocks to buy in cowrywise with a potential of massive growth for long term purpose? I will really appreciate.

Thanks

For serious investment advice, I will recommend you speak to an investment advisor or the research analyst(s) of your brokers.

I believe they are in a better position to make recommendations than random individuals online.

That said, please note that investment in equities (shares or stocks) carries risk of capital loss.

Here are some fundamentally sound stocks on the Nigerian Exchange

Oil and Gas
1. Aradel
2. Seplat
3. Oando

Banks
4. ACCESS Bank (Accesscorp)
5. Zenith-bank
6. GTCO

Telecommunications
7. MTN
8. AIRTEL

IT/software
9. CWG

Conglomerates
10. Transcorp

Consumer Goods
11. BUA Foods
12. NASCON

Industrial Goods
13. Dangote Cement
14. Lafarge Cement (Wapco)

Oil Palm Sector
15. Presco
16. Okomu oil

Health Care
17. May and Baker
18. Fidson

Others
19. TIP (The Initiates PLC)
20. Nahco
21. Tantalizers
22. Ikeja hotel
23. Julius Berger (Jberger)
24. Sahco
25. NGX Group

Kindly note that this is not an investment advice.

Cheers bro

Iskalamong

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faoogoke:
What do you mean by UBA stock not performing?
In my opinion its price is steady, and it will pay you dividend.
It also just surpass N500 billion shareholders fund.
You only just got in. Stay calm. Patience is key.

He is comparing the price of a share of UBA with those of its seniors, GTCO and ZENITHBANK.

That's why.

Also, we don't know his entry price.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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Bonjovi13:
I bought a ton of UBA stock last year with the understanding that it was undervalued and would catch up with GTB and Zenith stocks.
But it is not doing too well. Although there was a slight positive move on the heels of the purchase of Seplat by Heirs Holding, I still think the stock is sluggish.
Does anyone have an informed opinion why UBA stock isn't performing so well and what it's future projections are?

At the moment, on a per share basis, UBA is not on the same level with GTCO or ZENITHBANK. Both in terms of earnings (Earnings per share (EPS)) or in terms of dividends (dividend per share (DPS)). It is inferior. It has been inferior.

The key phrase is the per share basis

This is called fundamental analysis/peer comparison. It helps you compare companies better.

To simplify it, I know they're all tier one banks. But their revenues, profit and dividends differ. Even when these things are similar, you may need to look at it on a per share basis for a clearer view.

I will use some illutrations for a better understanding.

Example 1:
Two companies make N1 billion as profit after tax. The first has 1 billion shares outstanding while the second has 10 billion shares outstanding.

If the first trades at N10 per share while the second trades at N2 per share, it may seem like the second is undervalued relative to the first. Many newbies may buy the second for this reason.

But if we break it down, the EPS or earnings per share are as follows:

First company EPS = N1 billion / 1 billion shares = N1.00 per share.

Second company EPS = N 1 billion/ 10 billion shares = N0.10 per share.

This shows that the first company's shares earn 10 times that of the second company. This explains the price difference.

Example 2:
Two companies are top players in an industry. They make similar profits, revenues and even EPS but one trades significantly higher than the other. E.g Company A trades at N25 per share while Company B trades at N40 per share.

Solution:
Since earnings, management quality, risk and company fundamentals are the same (or very similar), we may look at the dividend.

Company A might declare N2.45 per share while company B declared N5 per share. In this case, the price difference is due to the higher dividend from company B. This is similar to what is happening in ACCESSCORP and UBA at the moment. The latter has a higher dividend yield. Financial performance and company strength are relatively at par.

My illustrations are not perfect but they are a good start.

Wishing you the best in your investment journey.

For the gurus, I oversimplified because of newbies out there. This way, they can catch up.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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Demetrix:
chief, you sent me a mail sadly,I don't have access to this mail.

Its on derivatives trading.

Can you share a contact: active mail or WhatsApp number.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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Streetinvestor2:
Not betting on obi as it is not equaly his birth right. Anyone from adc is a goal to me.If he fails after 4 yrs he is thrown again into dust bin for another person .It is on record I didn't vote this present one but after supreme court judgment I accepted it as fate.Then I said it could never be as bad as last one so we move.
It has disappointed beyond I could believe mostly with the economy. I am a business man so all those statistics by people in suit and ac is not reality on nigeria streets. Under this government so many small and medium businesses that existed has closed shop.Bro hunger and poverty is real on Nigeria streets. I don't live among the high class .I sabi do low and middle class game because that is whr the fun dey.It has turned red for many in this class in the last 3 yr.School don resume in the next 3 weeks you go begin petty this class as they decide btw sch fees and feeding of thr children. While this government spend wasteful among political class in billions
Abeg here no be political thread..sorry to all

Very true.

No lies detected.

Iskalamong
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Bigdeal01:
NSE most of the time is a big paradox. Check all junk stocks you are cautioned not to buy and see how much they have delivered in the last 3Months.

Austinlaz has done over 160%.
Alex,over 200% .N1m here would have become N3m
Deep cap
Nsltech
Daarcom
Conhall
Royalex
Ellahlakes

The ones with all the fundamentals stay lagging.
Most of us here are after capital appreciation as dividend most times is even guaranteed. When they do pay; just 2 to 10%.

I personally need my bags to swell 3-5x. Dividend can wait.

You have a very sound argument.

Please remove CONHALLPLC from your list.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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otokx:
Looking for non-banking, dividend stock with potentials, any suggestions?

A non banking stock with good dividend payout, dividend yield and dividend growth that I know is NAHCO.

I recommend you do your analysis on it before investing.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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kintus:
We experienced a sustained market downtrend for over three months last year, from October to December. Against that backdrop, advising investors to exit after just one week of positive movement appears premature.

It is reasonable to encourage caution, particularly in uncertain conditions; however, issuing guidance that does not align with the prevailing market momentum may be misleading and, frankly, unhelpful.

Cheers.

If you had read my earlier comment/response to @streetinvestor, I made a comment against taking profit too early.

Essentially, we are saying the same thing.

Cheers!

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Streetinvestor2:
What are u seeing from your own angle

Nothing really.

But from experience, when the market is rallying, it tends to go higher than expected.

Also, this rally may be a combination of the regular Q1 rally plus the santa rally not experienced last year. Thus, the rally may be sustained.

Also, as its a fresh year, many will likely FOMO in (both individuals and institutions) potentially fueling the rally.

Thus, you may want to carefully analyse the stocks you hold before cutting in a rush. A more pragmatic approach would be a staggered exit. This way, you exit partially while riding the bull. Hence, you won't completely miss out should price over-extend.

On the flip side, the Nigerian stock market is notorious for liquidity disappearance. That is, once the bull is over, many stocks may become fully offered. Hence, it is advisable to be on the watch to take profit (especially if you're not a passive investor). Typical example is the rally of insurance stocks in January 2025 (e.g SUNUASSUR) and the subsequent sharp reversal.

In conclusion:
If you're in the market, HOLD or exit gradually as the market is bullish. A good check may be to ask yourself the kind of results that the company can release or dividends that can be declared that will raise price further. Once prices are these high, it may be a good time to exit.

If you're not in, be careful of FOMO. Buy only fundamentally sound stocks that are still cheap in valuation terms. The rally will not last forever. I remember January 2024, the market was very bullish only to reverse aggressively towards month end and the following months of the quarter were quite bearish.

Those that entered late were punished. Many that didn't take profit in time regretted as well.

Sorry for the long epistle.

I had to carry newbies along as well.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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Streetinvestor2:
I wonder what is wrong with ngx.And is even a listed company that can't try to be efficient The thing tiya me I just logged out as I am not even buying anything na sell be my business

Please dont sell too early

Cheers!

Iskalamong!

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emmaodet:
→Rent vs. Buy
→Big Emergency Fund vs. Small Emergency Fund
→Pay Off Debt vs. Keep It And Invest More
→Cash On The Sideline vs. Always Fully Invested

There are no "right" answers to these debates.

Personal finance is personal.

True.

For emergency fund, I will say, have small emergency fund (cash). But have a larger emergency investment (e.g money market fund). This way, you're not holding too much cash and you're also not taking excessive risk while earning interests and maintaining a reasonable liquidity.

For debt (typically a leverage question), use less debt (low leverage). Do your maths and risk analysis well. This is generally the safer of the two options. The leverage will amplify your gains while you keep risk of ruin very low as your leverage level is low.

Diversify investments, and distribute (diversify) risk. Investments like money market funds, keep you invested and liquid while reducing your risk. With them you can stay almost fully invested and still manage risk (and liquidity).

In a nutshell, the answer would vary depending on the person but there is an optimal range that is suitable to most people based on risk, returns and liquidity.

Cheers!

Iskalamong!