₦airaland Forum

Troops of Operation Hadin Kai, working alongside local vigilantes and hunters, have neutralised a top Boko Haram commander and arrested a suspected drone and logistics supplier in separate but coordinated operations in Madagali Local Government Area.

SaharaReporters gathered that on Thursday, troops engaged suspected Boko Haram fighters during an ambush along the Visik River line.

The encounter resulted in the death of Abdullahi Mafa, a former hybrid commander notorious for orchestrating attacks in the Madagali council area.

A security analyst, Zagazola Makama, confirmed that later, around 6:30pm, troops carried out a raid at Madagali Motor Park, arresting 64-year-old Dauda Usman Gubula, a suspected Boko Haram collaborator and drone supplier.

Authorities recovered two aerial drones and 20 solar power banks from the suspect.

Officials stated that Gubula is currently in custody undergoing investigation, while military operations in the area continue to disrupt Boko Haram networks and restore stability to the region.

A raid by IS-affiliated jihadists on a military base in Borno State killed eight Nigerian soldiers and injured 23 others, three security sources told AFP on Wednesday.

About 70 fighters from the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) group riding motorcycles attacked a base at Cross Kauwa village, leading to a fierce gun battle, the security sources said.

“Eight soldiers paid the supreme price, and 23 others sustained injuries,” a military officer said of the attack which struck on Monday.

The militants mobilised from a camp on Dabar Masara island in Lake Chad and made a long detour to attack the base, two sources in anti-jihadist militia supporting the military said, giving the same toll.

“The terrorists burnt down the base along with 11 gun trucks and took away the anti-aircraft guns mounted on them,” said one anti-jihadist militia source.

All the sources asked not to be identified as they were not authorised to speak about the incident.

The base, 24 kilometres from the fishing hub of Baga, has served as a major security bulwark shielding that town from jihadist attacks.

ISWAP and rival group Boko Haram have intensified attacks on military bases in the northeast.

Jihadists attacked two bases in Borno state at the weekend, killing and wounding troops and anti-jihadist militia, according to the military.

Late on Saturday, ISWAP attacked a base in Mandaragirau near the Sambisa forest jihadist enclave, killing and wounding an unspecified number of soldiers and militia, the military said in a statement.

In another incident, Boko Haram launched an attack on another base in Pulka near the border with Cameroon, destroying military equipment and accommodation before the attack was repelled with the help of reinforcements, the statement said.

Jihadist violence has killed more than 40,000 people and displaced around two million in the northeast since 2009, according to the United Nations.

The conflict spread into neighbouring Niger, Chad and Cameroon, prompting a regional military coalition to fight the militant groups.

The coalition has lost steam in recent years after the withdrawal of Niger due to a diplomatic spat with Nigeria following a 2023 military coup in Niger.

The United States is deploying troops to Nigeria to provide technical and training support to Nigerian soldiers in fighting the jihadist groups. The US Africa Command said 200 troops were expected to join the deployment overall. (AFP)

No fewer than 37 miners were killed in Kampani Zurak community of Wase local government area of Plateau state following a carbon monoxide leak in the early hours of Wednesday.

Safiyanu Haruna, a miner in the community who confirmed the incident, said that over 20 victims who sustained injuries in the incident had been rushed to a hospital in Wase town for treatment.

According to Haruna, the incident occurred around 6:30am when the victims, who had performed their morning prayers, returned to the mining site and suddenly fell victims to the gas leak.


“It was carbon monoxide gas that leaked and killed them. Waking up to the sad story of losing 37 miners who had been struggling to make ends meet. We’re disturbed by the incident. Around 5:30 am, they were all alive because they had left the site for morning prayer, and it was when they returned to the site that they were found in this condition.

”There was no rescue at the time of the incident because those who were supposed to come in the morning were yet to arrive at the scene. 37 persons were confirmed killed while over 20 were injured and are receiving treatment in the hospital,” the miner said.

Haruna further said the funeral prayer of the deceased is ongoing in the community.

Nigeria’s oil sector lost an estimated N1.76tn in potential crude oil revenue due to its failure to meet the production quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries from January 2025 to January 2026.

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission revealed that the country’s crude oil production fell below the OPEC-set target of 1.5 million barrels per day in nine months in 2025 and repeated the same in the first month of 2026, even as global crude prices remained moderately strong.

According to the figures, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding its quota by about 40,000 barrels per day. Production also slightly exceeded the quota in June and July, with daily outputs of 1.51 mbpd, translating to surpluses of approximately 10,000–30,000 barrels per day.

However, production in February (1.47 mbpd), March (1.40 mbpd), April (1.49 mbpd), May (1.45 mbpd), August (1.43 mbpd), September (1.39 mbpd), October (1.40 mbpd), November (1.43 mbpd), and December (1.42 mbpd) fell below the benchmark.


The monthly shortfalls against the OPEC quota ranged from 10,000 barrels per day in April to 110,000 barrels per day in September, with the largest deficit recorded in September.

In February, average production stood at 1.47 mbpd. Over 28 days, this amounted to 41.16 million barrels, compared to the 42 million barrels expected under the quota, leaving a shortfall of 840,000 barrels. Output dropped further to 1.4 mbpd in March. Total production for the month was 43.4 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a deficit of 3.1 million barrels.

According to the data, crude production averaged 1.43 million barrels per day in April. Across 30 days, this translated to 42.9 million barrels, leaving a gap of 2.1 million barrels from the 45 million-barrel target for the month.


The fifth month recorded approximately 1.45 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days of May, Nigeria produced 44.95 million barrels against a quota requirement of 46.5 million barrels, leaving a deficit of 1.55 million barrels.

In August, production slipped to about 1.48 million barrels per day, yielding 45.88 million barrels compared to the expected 46.5 million barrels, creating a shortfall of 620,000 barrels. In September, production fell to 1.39 mbpd — the lowest in the year. Over 30 days, output reached 41.7 million barrels instead of 45 million barrels, leaving a shortfall of 3.3 million barrels.

Similarly, in October, average production of 1.44 million barrels per day resulted in 44.64 million barrels compared to 46.5 million barrels expected. The shortfall was 1.86 million barrels.

November recorded an average output of 1.46 mbpd; total production was 43.8 million barrels versus 45 million barrels under the quota. The deficit was 1.2 million barrels. In December, production hovered around 1.47 million barrels per day. Over the 31 days, Nigeria produced 45.57 million barrels instead of 46.5 million barrels, resulting in a gap of 930,000 barrels.

Cumulatively, these nine months produced a gross shortfall of approximately 18.7 million barrels.

However, January, June, and July recorded slight surpluses above the quota. After deducting the combined surplus from those three months, the net annual production deficit stood at 16.85 million barrels.

In January 2026, crude production stood at an average of 1.459 mbpd, resulting in a daily shortfall of 41,000 barrels per day. This translated to a shortfall of about 1.27 million barrels for the month. Consequently, from January 2025 to January 2026, Nigeria’s OPEC shortfalls accumulated to 18.12 million barrels.


According to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria, Bonny Light, Nigeria’s flagship crude grade, traded at elevated levels in the early part of the year before easing in the second quarter.

Bonny Light crude sold at an average of $80.76 per barrel in January 2025, declining to $77.08 in February and $74.44 in March. Prices dropped further in April to $69.07 and reached a low of $65.90 in May, reflecting softer global oil market conditions.

Prices recovered in June to $73.50 and remained largely stable in the third quarter, averaging $73.18 in July, $70.55 in August, and $70.20 in September, before falling again to $66.15 in October, the latest month for which CBN data were available.

Using the simple average of the 10 monthly Bonny Light prices published by the CBN, crude prices averaged $72.08 per barrel over the period under review. Multiplying 18.12 million barrels by $72.08 gives an estimated lost revenue of $1.31bn. At the prevailing exchange rate of N1,353 per dollar, this translates to approximately N1.76tn.

This loss came despite Nigeria’s total oil production for 2025 reaching 530.41 million barrels, generating gross revenue of about N55.5tn at the same average price and exchange rate.


Analysts noted that this figure represented gross inflows and did not account for production costs, joint venture cash calls, production-sharing contract cost recoveries, domestic obligations, or oil theft.

According to them, the underperformance against the OPEC quota highlights structural challenges in Nigeria’s oil sector, including operational disruptions, infrastructure constraints, security issues in the Niger Delta region, and fluctuations in production efficiency across different fields.

For comparison, Nigeria produced 1.54 mbpd in January 2025, exceeding the quota by 38,700 barrels per day, while the largest deficit occurred in September, when production averaged 1.39 mbpd, leaving a shortfall of about 110,000 barrels per day. These fluctuations underline the volatility that continues to affect Nigeria’s oil-dependent economy.

The shortfall also provides context for the 2026 oil benchmark, which is more conservative. The government has set a projected daily oil (crude and condensate) production of 1.84 million barrels, a benchmark crude oil price of $64.85 per barrel, and an average exchange rate of N1,400 per dollar, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in global oil markets and domestic production challenges. However, the January 2026 figure is not a good start for the 2026 budget.

An energy expert, Professor Emeritus Wumi Iledare, said meeting oil production targets would depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions.

Iledare told The PUNCH that the government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity.

According to Iledare, Nigeria earned about N55tn from crude oil in 2025, up from roughly N50tn in 2024. “While this is an improvement, it still fell short of what the Federal Government expected for the year,” he said.

The don noted that the main issue was not oil prices but production. He explained that the government planned to produce 766.5 million barrels in 2025 but managed to produce only about 599.6 million barrels, meaning close to 167 million barrels were not produced, and the revenue that could have come with them was lost.

“Looking ahead to 2026, meeting oil production targets will depend far less on ambitious projections and far more on practical, on-the-ground actions. The government must prioritise improved security around oil assets, reduce operational disruptions, fast-track regulatory approvals, and create a stable operating environment that allows existing fields to produce at full capacity,” he stated.


He added that supporting investment in maintenance and infill drilling — while ensuring policy consistency — will be critical to converting planned barrels into actual barrels.

The expert called on the Independent Petroleum Producers Group to lead the charge by reopening shut-in wells. “In this regard, the IPPG holds a key role in near-term production expansion. With appropriate economic and policy incentives, re-entry into shut-in wells in the onshore and shallow-water basins could deliver meaningful production gains within the year,” Iledare explained.

A professor of economics, Segun Ajibola, said crude production volume is dependent on several factors, many of which are beyond the immediate control of the government.

According to him, the government can deploy resources towards oil exploration, but the overall impact depends on technical cooperation by partners, joint ventures, developments in the global oil market, and environmental conditions, among others.

Ajibola maintained that the Nigerian situation is complex, as the key agency in charge, the NNPC, has been enmeshed in controversies over the period.

Meanwhile, according to OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report, Nigeria produced about 1.46 million barrels of crude oil per day in January 2026, though output rose from 1.422 mbpd in December 2025 to 1.46 mbpd in January.

Despite the marginal improvement, production remained below the 1.5 mbpd quota, marking the sixth straight month the country has missed its OPEC target, spanning August 2025 to January 2026.

However, the new Chief Executive of the NUPRC, Oritsemeyiwa Eyesan, pledged to increase oil production. The NUPRC boss said her vision for the upstream sector rests on three pillars: production optimisation and revenue expansion; regulatory predictability and speed; and safe, governed and sustainable operations.

According to her, the agenda aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda and the administration’s plan to grow Nigeria’s crude oil production to 2 mbpd by 2027 and 3 mbpd by 2030.